来源丨 半导体行业观察（ID：icbank） 美国商务部计划批准许可，允许英伟达向中国出售其H200。其中一位知情人士称，该芯片的性能高 于此前获准销售的H20，但不如该公司今年发布的顶级Blackwell产品，也不如明年将推出的Rubin系 列芯片。值得一提的是，后面这两款产品还是在限制出售名单里。 知情人士称，此举是在美国总统特朗普与英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)上周会晤之后做 出的，两人在会晤中讨论了H200的出口问题。 熟悉相关讨论的知情人士称，包括AI总监大卫·萨克斯(David Sacks)和商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克 (Howard Lutnick)在内的一些官员支持出口H200，因为这可能是一个很好的折衷方案，既能让英伟 达与中国公司竞争，又不会让中国在AI领域超越美国。 今年早些时候，特朗普政府批准对华出口H20，作为交换，销售额的15%将上缴美国政府，但中国方 面却以所谓的安全担忧为由，告知本国公司不要使用这些芯片。一些分析师认为，中方的这一信息是 一种谈判策略，目的是为了获得像H200这样更好的芯片。目前尚不清楚这项15%的协议是否会适用 于H200的销售。 智库Ins ...

智库Institute for Progress估计，H200的性能几乎是H20的六倍。英伟达新一代产品的性能通常会有 巨大提升。拜登政府对关键芯片实施了出口限制，许多分析师认为这些限制措施限制了中国国内半导 体和AI能力的发展。 投资者将关注中国对H200预期获批的反应，以及美国能获得什么回报（如果有的话）。 此举可能为英伟达带来数以十亿美元计的销售额，并帮助那些一直难以获得顶级芯片来训练其模型的 中国科技巨头。黄仁勋称，应允许英伟达在中国市场竞争，因为中国拥有许多世界顶尖的AI研究人 员，而美国应该希望他们使用美国技术。 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 据特朗普最新社交媒体消息透露，美国政府计划允许英伟达(Nvidia)对华出口其H200芯片，这 是这家AI芯片设计公司为维持其在世界第二大经济体的市场准入所做努力的最新转折。 美国商务部计划批准许可，允许英伟达向中国出售其H200。其中一位知情人士称，该芯片的性能高 于此前获准销售的H20，但不如该公司今年发布的顶级Blackwell产品，也不如明年将推出的Rubin系 列芯片。值得一提的是，后面这两款产品还是在限制出售名单里。 知情人士称 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang is personally requesting increased chip supply from TSMC, indicating a critical demand for the next generation of AI chips, particularly the Rubin series, amidst a supply shortage in advanced chip manufacturing [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - TSMC's current capacity for N3 chips is projected to reach only 140,000 to 145,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026, despite Nvidia's request for an expansion to 160,000 wafers per month [1][2]. - The supply-demand imbalance suggests that companies relying on advanced processes may face growth bottlenecks, while TSMC, having pricing power, is likely to see a significant increase in profit margins [1][6]. Group 2: Production Strategies - TSMC is not planning to build new N3 fabs but will prioritize existing facilities for next-generation nodes like N2 and A16, focusing on encouraging clients to migrate to leading nodes [2][4]. - The main increase in N3 capacity will come from converting production lines at the Tainan Fab 18, with an expected reduction in N4 utilization rates [2][4]. Group 3: Customer Demand - The demand for N3 process chips is expected to be extremely tight, with major tech companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all vying for capacity [5][6]. - Due to pre-booked capacity by primary clients, demand from cryptocurrency miners is likely to remain unmet in 2026 [5]. Group 4: Financial Implications for TSMC - The scarcity of capacity is translating into improved profitability for TSMC, with clients executing "hot-runs" and "super hot-runs" at prices 50% to 100% higher for expedited delivery [6]. - TSMC's gross margin is projected to reach the low to mid-60% range in the first half of 2026, exceeding current market expectations, supported by a planned price increase of 6% to 10% for advanced processes starting in Q1 2026 [6].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth and future projections of NVIDIA's GPU series, particularly the Hopper, Blackwell, and Rubin series, indicating a strong revenue potential in the upcoming quarters [1][3]. GPU Shipment and Revenue - NVIDIA's Hopper series GPUs have shipped 4 million units, generating $100 billion in revenue [1] - The Blackwell series GPUs are expected to ship 20 million units over the next five quarters, with projected revenue of approximately $500 billion, marking a fivefold increase compared to the H series [3]. Optical Module Demand - Excluding the already shipped 6 million units, an additional 14 million optical modules are expected to be shipped in the next five quarters, averaging about 2.8 million units per quarter [4] - The demand for 1.6T optical modules is projected to exceed 34 million units, significantly surpassing previous market expectations of 20 million units by 2026 [6]. Pricing and Supply Dynamics - The anticipated supply shortage of 1.6T silicon optical chips is estimated at 10-20%, which may lead to order delays or shifts towards 800G optical modules [6] - The expected price for 1.6T optical modules has been adjusted to $1,000-$1,100 per unit, up from the previous forecast of $800-$900, potentially increasing revenue contributions by 15-20% [6]. Industry Valuation Concerns - The low valuation of the optical module industry is attributed to several factors, including reliance on North American markets, technological risks from new innovations, low manufacturing barriers, and uncertainty in long-term demand [8]. PCB Developments - The Rubin architecture will utilize M9 materials for its PCB designs, enhancing the value of the boards compared to previous generations [9][10]. - The total value of the PCB in the VR200 NVL144 CPX computing tray is projected to exceed $3,000, significantly higher than earlier models [11]. SST Implementation - The demand for SST (Smart Supply Technology) solutions is expected to accelerate, with major companies like Amazon seeking to test SST samples for potential integration in future products [16][17]. - The optimistic outlook for Rubin's shipment pace may enhance the valuation of the SST industry and the performance of related companies in the coming years [17].