尽管就业和房地产市场出现了越来越多的不利迹象，但美国主要股指仍持续上涨。整体经济增长似乎依然强 劲。但分析师警告称，一场堪比互联网泡沫的危机正在悄然酝酿。 美国经济和股市受到巨额且不可持续的财政赤字支出以及人工智能支出爆炸式增长的推动。 包括亿万富翁基金经理大卫.艾因霍恩在内的人士开始担忧巨额人工智能投资是否会带来回报。《哈佛商业 评论》最近也发表了一项研究，对人工智能是否能真正提高生产力提出了质疑。 在Seeking Alpha撰稿人Bret Jensen看来，当前的经济/市场形势越来越像1999年的情景，也就是2000年初互联 网泡沫破裂前的那段时间。 Jensen强调，当前市场/经济中的三个关键趋势与1999年互联网繁荣末期情况惊人地相似。 1.估值已变得"疯狂" 高估值或许是这两个时期最明显的相似之处。标普500信息技术板块的预期市销率达到8.8倍。这远高于互联 网繁荣末期的水平，也是有史以来的最高水平。 标普500信息技术板块的预期市销率 2."供应商融资"回归 年长的投资者可能还记得"供应商融资"曾迅猛增长。在这种模式中，像思科(CSCO.US)这样的供应商会在销 售的同时，以优惠的条件为购买其设 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, which will use the funds to purchase Nvidia's chips, raising concerns on Wall Street about a potential repeat of the internet bubble [1][2][4][5] Group 1: Investment Structure - The investment structure involves Nvidia providing up to $100 billion for non-voting shares in OpenAI, which will then use this capital to buy Nvidia chips and deploy at least 10 GW of Nvidia systems [2][13] - This "supplier financing" model has led to significant stock price increases in the AI sector but has also raised alarms among seasoned market participants [4][5] Group 2: Market Reactions - Critics liken this transaction to practices before the 2000 tech bubble, where companies like Cisco provided loans to customers who then repurchased their products, suggesting a potentially negative outcome for all involved [8][12] - Supporters argue that this move is a strategic step for Nvidia to solidify its dominance in the GPU market and suppress competition from ASICs, signaling to the market that orders must be placed now to secure chips [6][12] Group 3: Energy Consumption Concerns - The scale of the project is staggering, with OpenAI's deployment of at least 10 GW of Nvidia systems requiring energy equivalent to that produced by 10 nuclear reactors [13][15] - This highlights the significant energy demands of AI infrastructure and the necessity for investors to consider energy costs and infrastructure feasibility in evaluating the future of the AI industry [15]

Core Viewpoint - The $100 billion investment agreement between Nvidia and OpenAI is sparking intense debate on Wall Street regarding its implications for the AI sector and potential risks involved [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Structure and Market Reactions - Nvidia is investing up to $100 billion in OpenAI in exchange for non-voting shares, with OpenAI planning to use this capital to purchase Nvidia chips and deploy at least 10 GW of Nvidia systems [1]. - The "supplier financing" model, where a company invests in a customer who then purchases its products, is raising concerns among market veterans, drawing parallels to practices before the 2000 tech bubble burst [3][4]. - Critics liken this model to past practices of companies like Cisco, warning that it may conceal significant risks and could lead to negative outcomes for all parties involved [4][6]. Group 2: Strategic Implications for Nvidia - Proponents argue that this investment is a strategic move for Nvidia to solidify its dominance in the GPU market and suppress competition from ASICs [3][10]. - The transaction is seen as a strong signal to the market that companies must place orders for chips now to secure supply, reinforcing Nvidia's position [10]. - The deal is interpreted as OpenAI publicly aligning with Nvidia's GPU technology, potentially reducing or eliminating its use of customized ASIC chips, which supports Nvidia's long-term growth narrative [10]. Group 3: Energy Consumption Concerns - The scale of the project is staggering, with OpenAI planning to deploy at least 10 GW of Nvidia systems, which is equivalent to the power output of 10 nuclear reactors [12]. - Analysts highlight that the energy requirements for this project are significant, raising concerns about the sustainability and feasibility of such large-scale deployments [12].