经济观察报 记者 张英 "大药企里，部分药物因战略调整或官僚主义而被搁置。小药企则不得不将所有资源集中在一两款药品上，即便其他备选药物再好也顾不上。"10年前，一位 30岁的印度裔美国人如此点评欧美药企的状态。 这位名叫维韦克·拉马斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy）的年轻人想从那些被忽视的药物中挖掘出价值。他以低价买入这类在研药物，再组建新公司进一步地研 发投入，得到不错的试验数据后，他将药物或公司转手卖向大型药企以获得大额回报。 拉马斯瓦米因此成为亿万富翁。他的赚钱方法在中国被广泛地称为"NewCo"，即New Company（新公司）的缩写。2024年至今，在资本寒冬下，中国创新药 行业已密集发生了14笔类似交易。 在这些NewCo交易中，卖方既有恒瑞医药（600276.SH/01276.HK）这样的大公司，也有荃信生物（02509.HK）这样的小型创新药企。买方起初以美国基金 为主，不过现在，行业正在悄然起变化。 8月初，乐普生物（02157.HK）达成一笔首付款1000万美元的交易，其股价连涨了三个交易日。但少有人注意，这是第一笔由红杉中国等中国投资机构作为 买方的NewCo交易。 红杉中国董事 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese innovative drug sector is on the rise and is currently in the early stages of realizing innovation成果 [1] - There remains a significant opportunity for independent development success and large-scale BD authorization transactions in the future [1] Industry Focus - In the oncology field, two main directions are highlighted: 1. The multidimensional iteration of ADCs (Antibody-Drug Conjugates), focusing on innovations in targets, antibody structures, and toxin combinations [1] 2. Innovations in the molecular components and spatial structures of immunotherapy, which may lead to breakthroughs with new combinations of ICI, TAA, cytokines, and TME-related chemotactic factors [1] Potential Products - The next potential blockbuster products may emerge from specific segments such as TCE (T-cell engagers), other bispecific/multispecific antibodies, and innovative ADCs, along with leading clinical enterprises in these fields [1]

Core Viewpoint - The innovation drug sector is experiencing a significant surge, particularly in the Hong Kong market, leading to substantial gains for various healthcare funds, but there are emerging concerns about potential valuation bubbles and investment risks [1][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The innovation drug market's strong performance is attributed to a "Davis Double Play" of value and price discovery, driven by advancements in technology and the rapid development of the sector itself [2]. - The Chinese innovation drug industry is witnessing a transformation, with substantial policy support and a notable increase in the share of Chinese products in global business development (BD) from 5% in 2020 to 40% in Q1 2023 [3]. - The impending "patent cliff" for multinational corporations (MNCs) is prompting them to acquire Chinese innovation drug assets as a strategy to maintain their product pipelines [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on three major technological trends in the innovation drug sector: Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADC), dual antibodies (IO), and T-cell engagers (TCE) [5][6]. - Selecting stocks from a bottom-up approach is recommended, but due to the complexity of the innovation drug industry, utilizing healthcare funds may provide better access to investment opportunities [4][5]. - A top-down approach favors companies with strong research and execution capabilities, particularly during key industry events like ASCO [7]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Despite the impressive gains in the innovation drug sector, concerns about valuation bubbles are rising, with some experts suggesting that the current bubble is larger than the previous CXO bubble [8]. - The investment essence in the innovation drug industry is characterized by high risk and high return, with a focus on capturing value during critical commercialization windows [8][9]. - The market is expected to experience differentiation in stock performance, with a focus on clinical data and potential overseas collaborations as key drivers for future growth [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Chinese innovation drug industry is anticipated to enter a "DeepSeek" moment, with enhanced system capabilities and cost advantages compared to international counterparts [11]. - The trend of domestic innovation drug companies achieving profitability and crossing the breakeven point is expected to lead to a long-term upward trajectory [11][12]. - The concept of a "China supermarket" for innovation drugs is likely to gain traction as international collaborations become more common due to the patent expiration pressures faced by MNCs [12].