对投资者而言，关键变量正在从"抢购式加速"转向"常态零售扩张+新品节奏"。汇丰下调2026年收入与 利润增速预测，指向会员复购强度回落与增速降档，但也强调估值已在一定程度上计入IP生命周期风 险，后续更看重新品孵化与全球化落地的执行力。 2025拆解：Labubu与毛绒"推翻重来"，但底盘并非空心 汇丰将2025年高增长拆解为两根杠杆。按IP拆分，The Monsters（Labubu）收入同比约+582%，收入贡 献被估算抬升至47%（此前约23%）。按品类拆分，毛绒玩具收入同比约+720%，贡献抬升至60%（此 前约22%）。这使得泡泡玛特的增长更接近消费品意义上的爆款周期，即IP热度叠加新品类放量，带来 更高频、更高客单、也更易传播的产品形态。 但汇丰同样强调"剔除爆款后的底盘"。其估算口径下，剔除The Monsters后，2025年收入仍同比增长约 106%，剔除毛绒后，收入仍同比增长约51%。这意味着，2025年的增量高度集中，但公司原有业务盘 子并未停滞。 泡泡玛特2月9日公告显示，2025年公司全IP、全品类产品全球销量超过4亿件，其中THE MONSTERS 全品类产品全球销量超过1亿件。 ...

据统计，南下资金已连续9日净买入小米，共计40.236亿港元；连续5日净买入阿里，共计45.9095亿港 元；连续3日净买入中芯国际，共计9.7441亿港元。 北水动向 长飞光纤光缆：根据华源证券，光纤价格已经温和上涨了约半年时间，其中G.652.D裸光纤价格从不到 20元/芯公里一路上涨，进入2026年后开始加速上涨。核心原因在于光纤供需的反转：供应端产能在不 断出清，而需求端AI数据中心建设加速驱动，导致各类光纤出现供不应求的情况。该行指出，光纤市 场的集中度较高，收入及盈利能力受需求影响显著。 阅文集团：中银国际指出，根据新华网2026年1月数据，阅文集团已有十多部作品播放量破亿，80多部 漫剧作品播放量破千万。随着Seedance2.0发布，漫剧制作成本进一步降低，制作效果进一步提高，行 业有望迎来加速发展。 泡泡玛特：消息面上，汇丰环球研究分析师Lina Yan在报告中判断，"Labubu带来的超高速增长会褪 去，但平台能力会延续"，并将2026年定义为"再定基"的一年。瑞银认为，数据有助于缓解市场对单一 爆款依赖的担忧，同时新IP Twinkle在2026年初开局强劲，为增长接力提供观察窗口。 2 ...

2月9日，泡泡玛特在港交所发布公告，披露2025年全年核心销售数据：全IP全品类产品全球销量突破4 亿只，其中THE MONSTERS系列核心IP LABUBU单IP全球销量超1亿只。 此次核心销售数据早于完整年报发布，此前2月7日，泡泡玛特创始人王宁已在公司年会上提前透露相关 核心数据，引发市场关注。2月9日，泡泡玛特盘中一度涨超8%；2月10日午盘收盘时，涨幅达4.35%， 报每股268.4港元，总市值3601亿港元。今年以来，其股价已累计上涨近38%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 王宁在年会上表示，2025年泡泡玛特全球员工超1万人，注册会员突破1亿人，LABUBU全年销量超1亿 只，业务覆盖超100个国家和地区，全球门店超700家，拥有6大供应链基地，创造超20万个就业岗位。1 月30日，泡泡玛特宣布将伦敦定为欧洲总部，未来将在英国新增伯明翰、卡迪夫及伦敦牛津街旗舰店等 7家线下门店，同时计划在欧洲各地拓展20家门店，相关投资将为英国创造超150个就业岗位。 汇丰环球研究分析师Lina Yan指出，"Labub ...

据公司公告，泡泡玛特2025年旗下所有IP、全品类产品全球总销量超4亿个，其中THEMONSTERS全品 类产品全球销量超1亿个。 公司预计2026年一季度中国市场整体需求将较2025年四季度保持韧性，Labubu的高基数效应将由 Twinkle及节日系列产品部分抵消。 观点网讯：2月10日，泡泡玛特股价一度大涨5%，有望实现连续第七个交易日上涨，创下2024年10月以 来最长连涨纪录。公司最新发布的2025年业务增长数据提振了投资者情绪。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 ...

泡泡玛特2月9日公告显示，2025年公司全IP、全品类产品全球销量超过4亿件，其中THE MONSTERS 全品类产品全球销量超过1亿件。 泡泡玛特2025年经历了典型的"单一超级IP+品类突破"式放量，营收同比接近三倍扩张，核心推力来自 Labubu全球出圈，以及毛绒玩具显著放大IP变现效率，最新的经营数据把市场关注点推向"爆款之后"。 据追风交易台，汇丰环球研究分析师Lina Yan在报告中判断，"Labubu带来的超高速增长会褪去，但平 台能力会延续"，并将2026年定义为"再定基"的一年。瑞银认为，数据有助于缓解市场对单一爆款依赖 的担忧，同时新IP Twinkle在2026年初开局强劲，为增长接力提供观察窗口。 汇丰将泡泡玛特目标价从392.5港元下调至354港元，瑞银维持326港元，两家机构均维持"买入"。在2月 9日收盘价257.2港元附近计算，对应隐含上行空间分别约38%与26.7%，但共同的前提是，2025年的爆 发式增长难以原样复刻。 风险也因此更偏"执行侧"。汇丰点名的扰动包括供应链跟不上需求、黄牛加价挤出真实消费者、股东配 售带来短期股价压力、仿品影响品牌、与合作艺术家的独家授权续约风 ...

Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group - **Industry**: Art Toy Culture and Retail - **Listing**: Listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange in December 2020 - **Key IPs**: Labubu, Molly, Skullpanda, Crybaby, Dimoo - **Retail Presence**: Operates 401 stores in mainland China and 120 stores outside mainland China as of end-2024 [10][10] Key Points from the Conference Call Product Strategy - **Sales Performance**: Sales this year have significantly exceeded expectations, but management is focused on long-term development [2][2] - **Internal Optimization**: Management is addressing weaknesses from rapid growth by optimizing organizational structure, channel operations, IP management, and supply chain capabilities [2][2] - **New Product Launches**: Q4 is the peak season, with new product series for top IPs planned for gradual weekly releases. However, the launch of Labubu 4.0 has been postponed to next year due to challenges from its popularity [2][2][2] Marketing and Capital Allocation - **Experiential Marketing**: The company is enhancing IP influence through flagship stores and immersive marketing strategies, such as character performances at theme parks and events like Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade [3][3] - **Interactive Engagement**: Future marketing will explore more interactive forms of IP engagement to enhance consumer experience [3][3] Supply Chain Management - **Supply Chain Optimization**: The supply chain has been optimized to a high level, but management aims to improve delivery speed through enhanced logistics and local warehousing [4][4] - **Demand Forecasting**: Sales data will inform more accurate demand forecasting, and marketing plans will be prepared earlier for key festivals [4][4] Financial Projections and Valuation - **Price Target**: The updated price target is HK$380.0, down from HK$435 due to higher beta assumptions [5][5] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenues are expected to grow from Rmb4,617 million in 2022 to Rmb86,042 million by 2029 [6][6] - **Profitability Metrics**: EBIT margin is projected to increase from 14.8% in 2022 to 46.1% by 2029, with net earnings expected to rise from Rmb573 million to Rmb30,693 million over the same period [6][6] Risks and Challenges - **Industry Risks**: Key risks include a slowdown in China's economy, increased competition from internet firms, regulatory scrutiny of the blind box format, and fashion risk in existing IPs [11][11] - **Company-Specific Risks**: Risks include failure to attract consumers with new IPs, challenges in expanding into low-tier cities, and profitability pressures from investments in new initiatives [12][12] Market Metrics - **Current Stock Price**: HK$224.80 as of November 28, 2025 - **Market Capitalization**: HK$302 billion (approximately US$38.8 billion) [7][7] - **Forecast Stock Return**: Expected price appreciation of 69.0% and a dividend yield of 2.1%, leading to a total forecast stock return of 71.1% [9][9] Conclusion Pop Mart International Group is positioned for significant growth in the art toy market, with a strong focus on optimizing internal capabilities and enhancing consumer engagement through innovative marketing strategies. However, the company faces various risks that could impact its long-term success.

Core Insights - Letsvan has successfully launched WAKUKU as a competitive alternative to LABUBU, achieving rapid popularity in the crowded collectible toy market [3][4] - The success of WAKUKU highlights the challenges of innovation in the industry, as it relies on replicating existing successful models rather than creating unique IP [3][4] - The market dynamics are shifting, with Letsvan's strategy focusing on affordability and accessibility, contrasting with Bubble Mart's premium positioning [16][19] Company Overview - Letsvan, founded by Zhan Huiyu in 2020, initially struggled to gain recognition until the success of LABUBU, which prompted the launch of WAKUKU [4][8] - WAKUKU's design and marketing strategies closely mirror those of LABUBU, utilizing similar naming conventions and aesthetic elements to attract consumers [5][6] - The company has formed strategic partnerships, such as with Lehua Entertainment, to enhance its market presence and leverage celebrity endorsements for brand promotion [7][8] Market Positioning - WAKUKU is positioned as a cost-effective alternative to LABUBU, with a starting price of 59 yuan compared to LABUBU's 99 yuan, appealing to price-sensitive consumers [16][18] - The brand has gained traction through effective marketing strategies, including product placements in popular media and collaborations with influencers [7][8] - Letsvan's approach to market expansion includes participation in international toy exhibitions and establishing retail partnerships in Southeast Asia [7][8] Competitive Landscape - The collectible toy market is becoming increasingly competitive, with various companies attempting to carve out their niches, such as TOP TOY leveraging its retail channels [9][12] - While Letsvan focuses on replicating successful models, other competitors are exploring unique strategies to differentiate themselves in the market [9][12] - The overall market is witnessing a surge in new entrants, with over 5,100 companies currently operating in the collectible toy sector in China [23][24] Future Outlook - Letsvan is evolving its brand identity by rebranding to "Letsvan Qimengdao" to enhance its creative ecosystem and attract designers [22] - The company aims to strengthen its content creation capabilities and establish a more robust connection between designers and consumers [22] - As the market continues to grow, Letsvan is positioning itself to be a significant player in the collectible toy industry, aiming to replicate the success of established brands like Bubble Mart [24]