Group 1 - Counterpoint Research reports that global PC shipments are expected to grow by 8.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking the largest increase since the peak demand during the pandemic in 2022 [1] - The growth in Q2 2025 is attributed to the countdown to the end of Windows 10 support, the rise of AI PCs, and early inventory purchases due to anticipated changes in tariff policies [1] - Major companies such as Lenovo, Apple, and ASUS have seen their shipment volumes increase by over 10%, further solidifying their dominant positions in the global market [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Consumer Electronics Theme Index account for 51.02% of the index, including companies like Luxshare Precision, SMIC, and BOE Technology Group [2] - The CSI Consumer Electronics Theme Index tracks 50 publicly listed companies involved in component production and consumer electronics brand design and manufacturing [2] - The Consumer Electronics ETF closely follows the CSI Consumer Electronics Theme Index, with various fund options available for investors [2]

Core Insights - The global PC shipment volume is expected to grow by 8.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking the largest increase since the peak demand during the pandemic in 2022 [1] - The growth is driven by the end of support for Windows 10, the rise of AI PCs, and early procurement due to anticipated changes in tariff policies [1] - Major companies like Lenovo, Apple, and Asus have seen shipment increases exceeding 10%, further solidifying their dominance in the global market [1] Industry Challenges - Uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has led many original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach [1] - Ongoing concerns about tariffs are prompting OEMs to adjust their manufacturing locations, which may pose significant obstacles to PC shipment volumes in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global PC market experienced a significant growth in Q1 2025, with total shipments reaching 62.7 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, driven by preemptive shipping strategies by OEMs ahead of new tariff implementations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In Q1 2025, notebook shipments (including mobile workstations) reached 49.4 million units, up 10% year-on-year, while desktop shipments (including desktop workstations) totaled 13.3 million units, reflecting an 8% increase [1]. - Lenovo maintained its leading position in the global PC market with shipments of 15.2 million units, achieving an 11% growth. HP followed with 12.8 million units, growing 6% year-on-year. Dell's shipments rebounded to 9.5 million units, marking a 3% increase, while Apple saw a strong 22% growth, reaching 6.5 million units [3][4]. Group 2: Tariff Impact and OEM Strategies - The increase in shipments was largely attributed to OEMs accelerating their shipping schedules to the U.S. market in response to the first round of tariff policies announced by the Trump administration. This proactive approach allowed manufacturers to stock up before cost increases due to tariffs [1][3]. - As new tariffs are set to take effect, OEMs are expected to continue diversifying production away from China to mitigate cost pressures. By the end of 2025, it is anticipated that most PC manufacturers will have shifted their U.S. market shipments to production outside of China [3][4]. - HP's CEO Enrique Lores indicated that by the end of this year, 90% of HP's products sold in the U.S. will be produced outside of China, highlighting the ongoing shift in production strategies among major OEMs [3]. Group 3: Consumer Demand and SMB Challenges - The impact of tariffs on consumer demand is expected to become more pronounced, as rising prices for various goods will force consumers to weigh their spending on more expensive PCs against other daily expenses [1]. - Small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) may face pressure to delay their device upgrades before Windows 10 reaches its end of service in October 2025. A survey indicated that 14% of SMB partners were unaware of the impending end of service, while 21% knew but had no upgrade plans [1].