Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant growth in adjusted net profit and revenue in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in its smartphone and automotive segments, despite some challenges in the Chinese market [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue is projected to increase by 21.46% year-on-year to 112.36 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit expected to rise by 68.88% to 10.56 billion yuan, largely due to profitability in automotive and innovative businesses [1]. - Smartphone revenue is anticipated to decline by 3.49% year-on-year to 45.80 billion yuan, with a slight decrease in average selling price (ASP) to 1,065 yuan [1]. - IoT revenue is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year to 27.41 billion yuan, with an improved gross margin of 23.5% [2]. - Internet services revenue is projected to increase by 9% year-on-year to 9.23 billion yuan, maintaining a healthy gross margin of 75% [2]. - Automotive deliveries are forecasted to reach 109,000 units, generating revenue of 29.43 billion yuan, with the automotive business likely achieving its first quarterly profit of 707 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global smartphone shipment is expected to maintain a top-three position, with a 1.8% year-on-year increase to 43.50 million units, although the Chinese market is projected to see a slight decline of 1.7% [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end models like the Xiaomi 17 series, which has shown strong initial sales performance [1]. - The automotive segment is anticipated to benefit from increased deliveries and the release of new models, contributing to sustained growth in both delivery volume and profitability [2]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 5.2% and 3.6% to 43.76 billion yuan and 64.02 billion yuan, respectively, due to rising storage costs [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.0x for 2025 and 16.9x for 2026 based on adjusted net profit [2]. - The target price has been lowered by 15% to 59.5 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 29.6% based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation method [2].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi is expanding its ecosystem with the launch of the AI glasses, positioning itself in the wearable technology market and aiming to enhance user interaction within its "human-vehicle-home" strategy [12][13][21] Product Launch - On June 26, Xiaomi held a "Human-Vehicle-Home Ecosystem Launch Conference," introducing several smart hardware products including the MIX Flip 2 foldable phone, Pad 7S Pro, and the highly anticipated YU 7 [1] - The AI glasses, weighing only 40g, are designed for comfort and come in three colors, with a price range of 1999 to 2999 yuan [7][9] Technical Features - The AI glasses feature a dual-chip Snapdragon AR1 processor, a 12MP ultra-wide-angle camera, and support for various AI tasks such as real-time image recognition and video live streaming [4][11] - They offer a battery life of 8.6 hours and can be charged in 45 minutes via a Type-C port [9] Market Positioning - The AI glasses are seen as a significant step for Xiaomi in the wearable device market, with over 50,000 pre-orders before the launch [12] - Xiaomi aims to capture the market for AI assistant-enabled wearables, leveraging its established supply chain and ecosystem [12][20] Strategic Importance - The introduction of AI glasses aligns with Xiaomi's broader strategy to create a seamless smart ecosystem that integrates various devices for enhanced user experience [13][17] - The glasses serve as a hardware platform for the "Super Xiao Ai" assistant, facilitating voice interaction and smart home control [16] Industry Impact - Xiaomi's entry into the AI glasses market is expected to lower consumer price expectations for smart eyewear, challenging the perception of AR glasses as high-priced tech gadgets [20] - The move is likely to stimulate interest in the smart glasses category, potentially revitalizing the supply chain and encouraging further innovation in the sector [20][21]

美债抛售暂歇，纳指艰难反弹，减税案暴击光伏股；比特币再创新高；原油跌超2%。 一票之差，特朗普减税案在众院涉险过关，参院还有难关得过。美联储当红理事沃勒：减税法案 引发美债抛售，若关税企稳下半年将降息。 美国暂停哈佛大学招收国际学生资格，在校外国学生转学"否则将失去合法身份"。 美国5月Markit制造业和服务业PMI均超预期且扩张，价格指数再涨。欧元区5月PMI意外萎缩，服 务业创16个月来最差表现。 美日财长会后表态：美方"没谈汇率，当前汇率反映基本面"，日方"没谈美债"。 OPEC+讨论7月大幅增产，沙特出手惩戒"配额叛徒"。 小米发布会：自研玄戒O1芯片登场、芯片要对标苹果，YU 7七月上市，定价19万9不可能！雷 军：小米玄戒研发投入行业前三，立项目标"最新工艺""旗舰级别""第一梯队"。 历史性时刻：比亚迪欧洲销量首次超越特斯拉，4月销量飙升169%。 "全球最强编程模型"来了！Anthropic发布Claude 4，连干七小时性能稳定。 OpenAI宣布在阿布扎比建全球最大AI数据中心，并考虑扩张至亚太地区。 昆仑万维20cm涨停，发布天工超级智能体，Deep Research能力全球第一，超越 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed Trump's tax bill with a vote of 215 to 214, highlighting internal party challenges and potential risks for Republican members in upcoming midterm elections [9] - The Federal Reserve's Waller indicated that the tax bill has triggered a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, and if tariffs stabilize around 10%, the Fed may consider rate cuts in the second half of 2025 [9] - Bitcoin reached an all-time high, approaching $112,000, while gold prices fluctuated, hitting a two-week high before declining [2][9] - In Asia, the ChiNext Index fell nearly 1%, and the North Stock 50 dropped over 6%, with banking stocks performing well [2] Key Developments - The U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs for May exceeded expectations, with manufacturing at 52.3 and services also at 52.3, indicating expansion [10] - The Eurozone's May PMI unexpectedly contracted to 49.5, marking the worst performance in 16 months for the services sector [11] - OPEC+ is discussing a significant production increase of 410,000 barrels per day in July, aiming to pressure member countries that exceed their quotas [13] Company News - Xiaomi launched its self-developed O1 chip, aiming to compete with Apple, and announced the Yu7 luxury SUV, which will be priced higher than initially expected [13] - BYD's sales in Europe surpassed Tesla for the first time, with a 169% increase in April sales, while Tesla's sales dropped by 49% [14] - Anthropic released Claude 4, touted as the world's strongest programming model, capable of maintaining stable performance over extended tasks [5] - OpenAI announced plans to build the largest AI data center in Abu Dhabi, with a total capacity of 5GW [5] Industry Insights - The nuclear power sector is expected to enter a golden decade, with a structural shortage in the uranium market anticipated due to old mines depleting and new ones being delayed [20] - The beer industry is entering its peak season, with expectations for positive growth driven by improved consumer confidence and favorable weather conditions [20] - The coal market is projected to see an upward trend as summer approaches, with current price accelerations viewed as the last dip before peak demand [20]