0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/7/11 地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 95.30 0.10 0.20 纽曼粉 743 22 29 794.3 96.05 2.95 2.40 -29.03 PB粉 748 23 25 792.1 98.30 2.85 2.25 -7.47 麦克粉 732 22 27 799.7 94.40 2.90 2.50 -4.47 金布巴 715 29 40 805.4 90.60 2.90 2.40 1.66 主流 混合粉 675 16 17 799.7 86.35 2.30 1.85 -2.30 超特粉 635 20 25 845.3 82.70 2.25 1.65 -5.34 卡粉 845 21 27 785.8 112.60 2.80 5.70 -25.14 巴西 巴混 782 23 25 794.1 101.50 3.40 3.00 ...

| | | | | 现货 | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | | 普氏62指数 纽曼粉 | 95.20 721 | 0.30 3 | 2.05 16 | 770.4 | 93.10 | 0.15 | 0.85 | -27.94 | | | PB粉 | 725 | 2 | 12 | 766.8 | 95.45 | 0.05 | 0.85 | -9.15 | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 710 | 2 | 15 | 775.8 | 91.50 | 0.10 | 0.90 | -4.47 | | | 金布巴 | 686 | 2 | 21 | 774.2 | 87.70 | 0.20 | 0.90 | -5.19 | | 主流 | 混合粉 | 659 | 1 | 8 | 782.4 | 84.05 | 0.10 | 0.65 | -0.78 | | | 超特粉 | 615 | 5 | ...

研究中心黑色团队 2025/7/9 地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 94.90 -0.80 0.75 纽曼粉 718 2 25 767.1 92.95 0.50 2.40 -29.86 PB粉 723 2 22 764.6 95.40 0.50 2.55 -10.86 麦克粉 708 3 24 773.6 91.40 0.60 2.65 -5.80 金布巴 684 4 31 772.1 87.50 0.60 2.55 -5.76 主流 混合粉 658 3 18 781.4 83.95 0.25 2.25 -1.10 超特粉 610 1 17 817.8 80.40 0.25 1.95 -13.19 卡粉 815 2 16 753.0 108.20 0.60 4.55 -22.07 巴西 巴混 757 2 22 767.1 97.95 0.40 2.45 1.00 主流 巴粗IOC6 698 2 24 765.5 巴粗SSFG 703 2 24 乌克兰精粉 805 0 23 859.3 61%印粉 664 4 31 卡拉拉精粉 805 0 23 817.8 罗伊山粉 6 ...

| 铁矿石早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究中心黑色团队 | | | | | | | | 现货 | | | | | | | | | | 远期 | | | 2025/7/7 | | | 地区 | | | 品种 | 最新 | | 日变化 | | | | 周变化 | | 折盘面 | | | 最新 | | | 日变化 | | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | | 普氏62指数 | | | | 96.30 | | 1.20 | | | | 3.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | -32.45 | | | 纽曼粉 | 716 | | 2 | | | | 13 | | 765.0 | | | 93.10 | | | -0.55 | | 1.40 | | | ...

0% 5% 10% 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (200) (150) (100) (50) 0 50 100 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 50 80 110 140 170 200 230 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/1 -PB 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 -PB 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 PB - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 50 100 150 200 ...

80 120 160 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 93.15 -1.00 0.20 纽曼粉 705 12 10 753.0 92.25 1.70 2.25 -36.50 PB粉 713 12 13 753.6 94.60 1.75 2.45 -14.02 麦克粉 695 11 12 759.5 90.60 1.85 2.40 -11.92 金布巴 665 12 13 751.7 86.80 1.85 2.50 -18.61 主流 混合粉 651 11 13 773.8 83.40 1.70 2.15 -3.16 超特粉 603 10 7 810.1 80.05 1.60 2.05 -16.81 卡粉 811 12 15 748.6 105.50 1.85 2.40 -4.87 巴西 巴混 747 12 13 756.3 97.10 1.60 2.45 -1.83 主流 巴粗IOC6 688 14 15 754.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a downward trend in both supply and demand, with expectations of continued weakness in the near term, particularly due to seasonal factors and production restrictions in certain regions [6]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.491 million tons to 33.576 million tons this week, with significant reductions from Australia and Brazil [4] - Australian shipments totaled 19.99 million tons, down 1.109 million tons, with shipments to China specifically decreasing by 418,000 tons [4] - Brazilian shipments fell by 677,000 tons to 8.833 million tons, with major mining companies like Rio Tinto, BHP, FMG, and Vale all reporting declines in their respective shipment volumes [4] Demand - Daily molten iron production averaged 2.4229 million tons, showing a slight increase of 110,000 tons week-on-week, while the blast furnace operating rate remained stable at 83.82% [3] - Steel mill profitability was reported at 59.31%, indicating stable margins despite the fluctuating market conditions [3] - However, the demand outlook is tempered by seasonal factors, with expectations of reduced demand as the industry enters a traditional off-peak period [6] Inventory - As of June 30, port inventories stood at 138.6981 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 604,200 tons week-on-week, while steel mill imported ore inventories also saw a reduction [5] - The increase in daily port throughput suggests a potential for slight inventory depletion in the coming weeks, despite the recent drop in port arrivals [5] Market Outlook - The iron ore futures contract is expected to remain weak, with projections indicating a continued decline in molten iron production in July, averaging between 2.3 to 2.4 million tons [6] - The implementation of production restrictions in Tangshan from July 4 to 15 is anticipated to further reduce iron ore demand [6] - The market sentiment is leaning towards a bearish outlook for the September futures contract, with recommendations for short positions in the range of 690 to 720 [6]

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 PB - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 PB - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 -57% 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 80 120 160 200 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 0 50 100 150 (50) 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0% 5% 10% 15 ...

上一交易日，铁矿石PB粉港口现货报价在707元/吨，超特粉现货价格600元/吨。 6月30日：全国主港铁矿石成交89.6万吨，环比下跌5.29%；远期现货成交71万吨。 2025年6月23日-6月29日中国47港铁矿石到港总量2413.5万吨，环比减少359.4万吨；中国45港铁矿石到 港总量2363.0万吨，环比减少199.7万吨；北方六港到港总量1217.2万吨，环比增加63.7万吨。 分析观点： 宝城期货研报：现阶段，矿石需求韧性表现尚可，且市场情绪有所回暖，铁矿石期价震荡走高，但供应 维持高位，而需求改善存疑，基本面料难持续好转，上行驱动不强，预计后续走势延续震荡运行态势， 关注成材表现情况。 2025年7月1日铁矿石现 货价格表 | 品种 | 品牌/产地 | 价格（元/ | 规格 | 报价类 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 吨） | | 型 | | 铁矿石 | 江阴港 | 672 | 品种:粉矿;产地:印度;品 位:62%;湿吨; | 市场价 | | | 品种:PB粉;产地:澳大利亚;品 | 市场价 | | | | 739 | 位:62%;湿吨; | ...

12/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (50) 0 50 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/6/30 地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 93.30 0.55 0.25 纽曼粉 703 8 0 750.8 91.70 1.00 0.95 -35.10 PB粉 707 7 -3 747.0 93.75 0.85 0.35 -14.58 麦克粉 690 7 -3 754.0 89.80 0.95 0.90 -11.72 金布巴 659 7 -3 745.2 86.05 1.05 0.80 -19.73 主流 混合粉 643 5 -10 765.1 82.75 0.90 0.95 -7.01 超特粉 601 6 -3 807.9 79.55 0.90 0.95 -15.83 卡粉 805 10 0 742.1 104.75 0.85 0.75 -6.21 巴西 巴混 741 7 -3 749.8 96.50 1.10 1.05 - ...