Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the steel market adjusted in a volatile manner, presenting a pattern of weakening macro - driving forces and industrial pressure. Overseas market fluctuations led to a decline in risk appetite, pressuring black commodities. Although rebar showed a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand with a faster inventory accumulation rate, the current inventory level is at the lowest in the same lunar period in the past four years, and the overall pressure is controllable. Looking ahead, the seasonal weakening of building material demand continues. With steel mills resuming production, the rebar inventory accumulation speed is expected to accelerate, and the fundamentals will marginally weaken. Meanwhile, due to the expectations of steel mill复产 and winter - storage replenishment, the cost side still supports steel prices, and prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, the steel market was in a pattern of weakening macro - driving forces and industrial pressure. Overseas market fluctuations led to a decline in risk appetite, pressuring black commodities. Rebar had increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory accumulation rate accelerated, but the inventory pressure was controllable [2]. - In the future, building material demand will continue to weaken seasonally. With steel mills resuming production, the rebar inventory accumulation speed will accelerate, and the fundamentals will weaken marginally. The cost side still supports steel prices, and prices will fluctuate at low levels [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal production was 228.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 million tons or 0.04% [4]. - Rebar mill inventory was 148.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.32 million tons or 4.43% [4]. - Rebar social inventory was 303.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.71 million tons or 2.61% [4]. - Hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 76.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 million tons or 0.14% [4]. - Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 281.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66 million tons or - 1.63% [4]. Futures Market Review The report presented several figures related to the futures market, including the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (volume/position) [6][7][9]. Spot Market Review The report included figures on the spot prices of rebar in East China (Shanghai), hot - rolled 4.75 in Shanghai, rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [13][14]. Fundamental Data The report showed figures on 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal production, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar and hot - rolled coil mill inventory seasonal analysis, and rebar and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis [16][20][22][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile trend before the Spring Festival, but prices may fluctuate due to market sentiment. It is recommended to continue monitoring the impact of macro - news on the market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. - For trading strategies, it is suggested that the single - side position maintain a volatile trend, for arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio between hot - rolled coil and coking coal, and for options, it is advisable to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the output of small - sample rebar decreased by 0.74 million tons to 190.30 million tons, while the output of small - sample hot - rolled coil increased by 2.85 million tons to 308.36 million tons. The average daily molten iron output of 247 blast furnaces decreased by 1.49 million tons to 228.01 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 1.2 percentage points to 36%. With the increase in scrap steel prices, the cost of electric arc furnaces has continuously increased, leading to a decline in profits. Although molten iron production decreased this week, the capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnaces increased, and scrap steel consumption was 51.29 million tons per day. It is expected that there may be further production cuts in the future. Long - process steel mills maintained profitability, and molten iron production continued to increase this week [4]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar increased by 14.44 million tons to 190.34 million tons, and that for small - sample hot - rolled coil increased by 5.55 million tons to 314.16 million tons. With the temperature rising and the improvement of downstream funds, the demand for hot - rolled coil was good due to pre - holiday inventory replenishment in the manufacturing industry, and the export situation in January remained strong. From January to November, the growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment continued to decline month - on - month, and the increment of domestic project investment was insufficient. In November, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, new construction, and completion area narrowed but still maintained a negative growth of about 20 - 30%, indicating weak real - estate data and insufficient willingness of residents to buy houses. In December, the official manufacturing PMI and S&P Global manufacturing PMI were both 50.1%, with new orders, exports, and production data strengthening. In November, China's automobile production increased by 12.7% year - on - year, and exports increased by 49.17% year - on - year. In December, the production schedule of three major white - goods decreased by 14.1% year - on - year, but the decline narrowed, and overseas exports still had rigid support. The US manufacturing PMI declined in November, and the initial jobless claims in the US were at a relatively low level, suppressing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in January and putting pressure on gold prices. The eurozone manufacturing PMI further declined in December [4]. - **Inventory**: For rebar, the factory inventory decreased by 5.27 million tons, the social inventory increased by 5.23 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 0.04 million tons. For hot - rolled coil, the factory inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 5.80 million tons. The total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.91 million tons [4]. - **Outlook**: The output of five major steel products increased slightly this week. Affected by steel mill maintenance, molten iron production declined, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil production increasing. The total steel inventory decreased. The social inventory of rebar accumulated while the factory inventory decreased, indicating that steel mills increased production cuts, but social demand further declined. The hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline, and with the resumption of production, the factory inventory decreased more slowly than the social inventory. The funds of downstream construction sites improved this week. Near the end of the year, the payment collection situation of housing construction projects was slightly better than that of non - housing construction projects, but infrastructure projects were worse than last year. The warming weather led to the recovery of rebar apparent demand. Before the Spring Festival, the manufacturing industry had inventory replenishment demand, and the steel export situation in January was still strong, supporting the demand for hot - rolled coil. The production drive of coal mines was insufficient before the Spring Festival, the inventory of raw - material coal mines decreased, the structural shortage of PB powder had not been resolved, and the first quarter was also the traditional off - season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills had a rigid demand for inventory replenishment, and costs were supported. The continuous resumption of molten iron production also limited the further rise of steel prices [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3290 yuan (unchanged), and in Beijing, it was 3180 yuan (+20 yuan). The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3310 yuan (+40 yuan), and that of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3200 yuan (+10 yuan) [13]. - **Profit Situation**: The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric arc furnace was - 100.36 yuan (- 70.5 yuan), and the valley - rate electricity profit was 65 yuan (- 71 yuan) [31]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - As of the week of January 9, the initial jobless claims in the US reached 198,000, lower than the expected 215,000 and the previous value of 207,000. The unemployment data was at a relatively low level in the same period of history [33]. - On January 15, the People's Bank of China announced that it would lower the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing purchase loans to 30% and cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [33]. - In December 2025, China's steel exports were 1.1301 billion tons, an increase of 132.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. From January to December, the cumulative steel exports were 11.9019 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China's steel imports were 51.7 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. From January to December, the cumulative steel imports were 605.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [33]. - In December 2025, China exported 994,000 automobiles. From January to December, the cumulative automobile exports were 8.324 million, a year - on - year increase of 30.0%. In December 2025, China exported 370.11 million household appliances. From January to December, the cumulative household appliance exports were 4.452947 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. In December 2025, China exported 536 ships. From January to December, the cumulative ship exports were 6,690, a year - on - year increase of 16.2% [33]. - In December, the new social financing was 220.75 billion yuan, the previous value was 248.88 billion yuan, and the year - on - year decrease was 22.64%. Both year - on - year and month - on - month decreased. The new RMB loans were 91 billion yuan, and the previous value was 39 billion yuan. The household loans were - 9.16 billion yuan, and the corporate loans were 107 billion yuan. Government bonds and corporate bond financing provided strong support. The short - term financing demand of enterprises continued to recover, but the medium - and long - term investment demand was insufficient. The consumer and housing credit willingness of residents still needed to be boosted [38]. - From January to November 2025, China's fixed - asset investment completion amount was - 2.60% year - on - year, the previous value was - 1.7%, and the growth rate continued to decline rapidly month - on - month. Among them, the cumulative investment in real - estate development was - 15.9% year - on - year, the cumulative investment in manufacturing was + 1.9%, the cumulative investment in infrastructure construction was + 0.13% year - on - year, and the cumulative investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was - 1.1% year - on - year. The growth rates of the three types of investment continued to shrink significantly month - on - month. The real - estate sector lacked financial support and remained a drag on domestic demand. The issuance of government bonds slowed down compared with the same period last year, which affected infrastructure investment to some extent. Corporate loans were low, and the investment growth rate in the manufacturing industry continued to shrink due to insufficient industrial prosperity [38]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.2801 million tons (- 1.49 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 36% (+ 1.2 percentage points). The output of small - sample rebar was 1.903 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.74 million tons, and the output of small - sample hot - rolled coil was 3.0836 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85 million tons [57][61]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 1.9034 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 62.8% in the lunar calendar), a month - on - month increase of 14.44 million tons, and the apparent demand for small - sample hot - rolled coil was 3.1416 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.77% in the lunar calendar), a month - on - month increase of 5.55 million tons [64]. - **Inventory**: For rebar, the factory inventory decreased by 5.27 million tons, the social inventory increased by 5.23 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 0.04 million tons. For hot - rolled coil, the factory inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 5.80 million tons. The total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.91 million tons [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - This week, the steel market showed the operating characteristics of "driven by macro and funds, with weakening fundamentals" and maintained a range - bound oscillation. Although the price strengthened at the beginning of the week driven by the rotation of commodity price increases, the macro - sentiment cooled significantly due to concerns about the Fed's interest - rate cut intensity caused by the worse - than - expected US employment data. At the industrial level, the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand for rebar was established, with a slight increase in output, a significant decline in apparent demand, and inventory turning from decreasing to increasing, indicating increasing fundamental pressure. Looking ahead, steel demand is seasonally weakening. As steel mills gradually resume production, rebar inventory accumulation is becoming evident. However, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter - storage restocking, the cost side still supports steel prices, and it is expected that prices will maintain an oscillatory operation [1] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Market Review and Outlook - The steel market this week was characterized by "macro and fund - driven with weakening fundamentals" and oscillated within a range. The price initially strengthened due to commodity - price rotation but later weakened due to US employment data concerns. At the industrial level, rebar supply increased while demand decreased, and inventory started to accumulate. In the future, demand will weaken seasonally, rebar inventory will accumulate as mills resume production, but cost support will keep prices oscillating [1] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The daily average hot - metal output of steel mills was 229.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 million tons (0.91%). Rebar steel - mill inventory was 147.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.56 million tons (6.14%). Rebar social inventory was 290.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 million tons (2.66%). Hot - rolled coil steel - mill inventory was 77.32 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5 million tons (- 6.07%). Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 290.81 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 million tons (0.75%) [3] Futures Market Review - The report presents multiple figures related to the futures market, including the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [5][6][8] Spot Market Review - The report shows figures related to the spot market, such as the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), the hot - rolled 4.75 spot price (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [13][14] Fundamental Data - The report provides figures related to fundamental data, including the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar blast - furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend charts, and seasonal analyses of rebar and hot - rolled coil steel - mill and social inventories [18][22][24][27]

Group 1 - Approximately 8 steel mills adjusted their construction material ex-factory prices today, with Donghua in North China reducing wire rod prices by 5 yuan/ton, while Meijin in North China increased rebar, wire rod, and round bar prices by 30 yuan/ton [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the spot price for wire rod from Zhongtian in Hangzhou is 3580 yuan/ton, and from Yonggang is 3550 yuan/ton, with the futures market closing at 3600.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5.66% increase [2] - National total inventory of construction materials is 7.237 million tons, a decrease of 171,900 tons from the previous week, while the apparent demand increased by 166,700 tons to 4.6747 million tons [3] Group 2 - Recent commodity market trends have positively influenced steel prices; however, demand is gradually weakening, and export expectations may tighten, leading to a volatile price trend for steel [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The fluctuation range of rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coil is 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. Steel inventory continues to decline, with stronger basis and rising profits. The driving factors for the absolute price are the possible macro - expectation trading in the Politburo meeting in December and the impact of coking coal on steel costs. The long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and the long - short spread arbitrage between rebar and hot - rolled coil can be held [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures will run weakly with fluctuations. It is recommended to short iron ore at high prices unilaterally. The operation range is 750 - 820 yuan/ton, and the iron ore 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage is recommended [4]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both coke and coking coal futures are viewed as weakly volatile. The coke trading range is 1480 - 1630 yuan/ton, and the coking coal range is 950 - 1100 yuan/ton. The strategy of long - coke and short - coking coal is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - **Rebar**: Spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 18, 17, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Spot prices in East and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in North China remained unchanged. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 12, 15, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The billet price remained unchanged at 2990 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar remained unchanged [1]. - **Profit**: The profits of East and South China rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton, while that of North China remained unchanged. The profits of East, North, and South China hot - rolled coils increased by 20, 10, and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decrease of 3.1%. The rebar output decreased by 16.8 tons to 189.3 tons, a decrease of 8.1%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 4.7 tons to 314.3 tons, a decrease of 1.5% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 503.8 tons, a decrease of 5.2%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 400.4 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.6 tons to 8.8 tons, a decrease of 6.0%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 864.2 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 11.0 tons to 217.0 tons, a decrease of 4.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.4 tons to 314.9 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, with a decline of 0.1% - 1.0% [4]. - **01 Contract Basis**: The basis of various iron ore powders increased, with an increase of 5.1% - 58.5% [4]. - **Inter - Contract Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 to 25.0, a 4.2% increase; the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.0 to 16.5, a 5.7% decrease [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 117.8 tons to 2699.3 tons, a 4.2% decrease. The global shipment volume increased by 44.8 tons to 3323.2 tons, a 1.4% increase. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a 4.3% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a 1.0% decrease. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 8.5 tons to 318.5 tons, a 2.6% decrease. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a 2.0% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 63.4 tons to 15300.81 tons, a 0.4% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 42.3 tons to 8984.7 tons, a 0.5% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days, a 5.0% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - **Coke**: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The 01 and 05 contracts of coke decreased by 36 and 44 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased slightly. The 01 and 05 contracts of coking coal decreased by 67 and 49 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Supply - **Coke**: The daily average output of full - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, a 1.2% increase [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly, with a 0.34% decrease [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a 1.0% decrease [6]. Inventory - **Coke**: The inventory of full - sample coking plants increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, a 6.5% increase. The inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 20.1 tons to 127.6 tons, a 18.7% increase, and the port inventory decreased by 6.1 tons to 181.3 tons, a 3.3% decrease [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.0 tons to 798.3 tons, a 0.4% decrease, and the port inventory decreased by 1.3 tons to 296.5 tons, a 0.4% decrease [6].

Group 1 - The total demand for rebar steel this week is 2.1991 million tons, slightly up from 2.1919 million tons last week, but lower than the same period in previous years [1] - The total inventory of rebar in major cities across the country is recorded at 3.634 million tons, a decrease of 53,500 tons or 1.45% from the previous week; over the past month, the total inventory has decreased by 311,900 tons, a reduction of 7.90% [1] - Recent price adjustments for rebar in Yunnan steel mills show significant increases in price margins across various specifications, indicating a shift in pricing strategy [1] Group 2 - The current market conditions for steel show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, leading to a seasonal inventory build-up; short-term price fluctuations are expected [2] - The core issue in the market is the balance between iron water resilience and the accumulation of finished product inventory alongside reduced demand expectations [2] - Steel mills are experiencing profit compression, leading to a decrease in production rates; rebar demand is significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating a weak market [3] Group 3 - The production of major steel products is seasonally declining, with a noted decrease in electric furnace operating rates [3] - Recent macroeconomic information has been reflected in the market, shifting trading logic back to fundamental drivers, suggesting a potential recovery in undervalued steel prices [3] - Traders are advised to consider short positions during rebounds, while monitoring negative feedback expectations in the market [3]