V i e w p o i n t | 11 Mar 2025 02:50:00 ET │ 13 pages Commodities Dashboard Curve Structure, Volatility, Momentum and Positioning data – Mar 10 update CITI'S TAKE This is our new Commodities Dashboard which replaces our legacy Commodities Flows Chartpack and Commodities Volatility Dashboard and provides the latest curve structure, volatility, momentum and positioning data across major commodity markets. Our Backwardation Dashboard (see Figure 1) shows HH natgas and ICE coffee as the most backwardated commo ...

Summary of Goldman Sachs Economic Indicators Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on global economic indicators, particularly highlighting the divergence in growth news between the Euro Area and the US as of March 2025 [1][6][8]. Key Points Economic Growth Divergence - Positive growth indicators are noted in the Euro Area, while negative trends are observed in the US [1][6]. - The GS MAP Surprise Index shows a significant difference in economic performance between the US and Euro Area, with the Euro Area showing more favorable surprises [3][4]. GDP Forecast Changes - The GDP forecast for 2025 has been adjusted, showing higher growth expectations for Germany but lower for the US and Brazil [8][9]. - Specific changes in GDP forecasts include: - Turkey: +1.3 percentage points since 60 days ago [9]. - Turkey: +1.2 percentage points since a week ago [9]. Current Activity Indicator (CAI) - The Global CAI for February is reported at +2.3%, with the US at +1.4% and the Euro Area at +0.4% [11][52]. - Emerging markets show stronger performance, with Brazil at +4.6% and India at +7.3% [11][52]. Financial Conditions Index (FCI) - The Global FCI has eased primarily due to short rates, indicating a more favorable financial environment [8][24]. - The Euro Area FCI shows a tightening trend, while the US FCI reflects a more stable condition [30][34]. Wage and Price Inflation - Wage trackers indicate varying inflation measures across different regions, with the US showing a composition-adjusted wage tracker [20][68]. - Inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted, with notable changes in core inflation expectations for Argentina and Russia [92][94]. Employment Trends - The jobs-workers gap has been analyzed, showing significant changes since December 2019 across various countries, including the US, UK, and Canada [23][75]. - The report highlights the importance of labor market dynamics in shaping economic recovery [73]. Fiscal Policy Impacts - The effect of fiscal policy on real GDP growth is projected, with varying impacts across the US, Euro Area, and China [81][82]. - Russia is noted for a positive fiscal impulse of +2.8 percentage points [81]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators as they can significantly influence investment decisions [5]. - The methodology behind the GS MAP Surprise Index and other proprietary indicators is briefly discussed, highlighting the rigorous standards applied in their development [4][108]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Goldman Sachs Economic Indicators Update, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and its implications for investment strategies.

Summary of the Conference Call on China Healthcare: Medical Devices Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Healthcare** sector, specifically the **Medical Devices** industry, and discusses the impact of **Volume-Based Procurement (VBP)** policies on various product categories from 2025 onwards [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments VBP Expansion and Product Coverage - VBP has expanded significantly since its initiation in 2020, now covering a majority of product categories including medical consumables, IVD, insulin, and TCM products [2][11]. - The **6th batch of national VBP** is set to launch in the second half of 2025, which may include high-value consumables and TCM products [2][11]. Policy Maturity and Pricing Impact - The VBP policy has matured, with established rules for initial coverage and renewals, including grouping, ceiling prices, and revival mechanisms [3][14]. - The impact on ex-factory prices for consumables is expected to be largely one-time, focusing on regulating channel markups rather than ongoing price erosion [3][19]. Market Dynamics and Consolidation - Leading domestic players are positioned to consolidate market share post-VBP, benefiting from increased hospital coverage and better alignment with incentives compared to multinational corporations (MNCs) [4][31]. - Smaller players are likely to lose market share due to the competitive pressures from larger domestic firms [4][31]. Stock Implications - Preference is given to companies where the VBP impact is already priced in, with expectations of normalized growth and market share gains, such as **Eyebright**, **SNIBE**, **AK Medical**, and **Weigao** [5]. Earnings Volatility and Inventory Management - Near-term earnings volatility is anticipated for products with high channel inventory, particularly in categories like artificial joints [21]. - Companies like **AK Medical** have issued profit warnings due to inventory destocking and impairment losses [21]. Pricing Trends and Margin Stability - Historical data shows that pricing cuts from VBP have become more moderate over time, with average cuts decreasing from 76% in 2020 to 41% in 2023 for drug-eluting stents [19][30]. - Post-VBP margins for Chinese players have stabilized at 15-20%, comparable to global peers [20][30]. Product Upgrades and Market Share Changes - There is a trend towards product upgrades post-VBP, with higher-end products gaining market share due to increased affordability and reimbursement coverage [32][34]. - MNCs have seen a decline in market share across various product categories, while domestic players have gained significantly [34][36]. Future Considerations - The report highlights the need for clarity on the impact of VBP on large-scale imaging equipment and the upcoming DRG/DIP rules set to roll out in 2025 [46][49]. - Potential savings from VBP are estimated at **Rmb 80 billion** for the insurance fund, contributing to overall healthcare expense reductions [50][53]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic shifts by MNCs, such as J&J's move to direct sales, which has not yielded expected results [31]. - Companies are advised to monitor the evolving landscape of VBP and its implications for pricing strategies and market positioning [59][64]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the medical devices sector in China, particularly in relation to VBP policies and their implications for market dynamics and company performance.

March 11, 2025 12:54 AM GMT Overall, we think this is a positive result. And, if Proya can demonstrate OPM improvement for its 1Q25 earnings, we think its stock could start gaining more attention. Proya Cosmetics: Meeting Takeaways - Global Top 10 In 10 Years (28 Feb 2025) Proya Cosmetics: Risk Reward Update (25 Feb 2025) Giant Biogene (2367.HK): Comfy's momentum continues to be strong, ranked No.8 on Tmall this time, compared to No.11-13 during the big online promotions last year. Its Douyin ranking increa ...

11 March 2025 | 7:17AM HKT The 720: Global Views, MediaTek, BEKE, Coupang, China Spirits, US Internet In Focus | Global Views Global Views - From Above to Below. We have downgraded our 2025 US GDP growth forecast from 2.4% at the start of the year to 1.7% now (both on a Q4/Q4 basis). This is our first below-consensus forecast in 2½ years. The main reason for the downgrade is not the recent data, as the February jobs report was decent, initial jobless claims are still low, the February ISMs—as well as our br ...

10 March 2025 | 5:43PM EDT Americas Technology: Internet Q4'24 EPS Review: Where To From Here? Recapping Takeaways & Debates; Focus Stocks Going Forward During this past earnings season, US Consumer Internet & Interactive Entertainment companies delivered a volatile array of stock price reactions as global investors grappled with three key themes/debates: 1) the rate of investment in AI by the largest companies under our coverage continued to increase (especially for those with foundational model and/or hyp ...

11 March 2025 | 7:41AM CST China Healthcare: Trip takeaways: Medtech bottoming out, gradual recovery in 2025; eyes on equipment VBP We recently (Feb 24-28, 2025) hosted an investor field trip with several Chinese Healthcare companies. The discussions mainly focused on industry growth outlook and VBP impact. We believe China MedTech is likely bottoming-out with potential regional VBP risks around medical equipment, and see recovery starting in 2025. In this note, we discuss takeaways from meeting with our co ...

10 March 2025 | 5:31PM PDT Global Healthcare Takeaways from Inaugural MedTech & Tools China Trip; Consumer and CapEx Markets an Inflection We recently hosted an investor field trip to China to gain an on-the-ground pulse for market and competitive dynamics in MedTech, Lifescience Tools, Diagnostics, and CRO/CDMOs. During our visit, we met with locally-domiciled companies, market data and policy experts, physicians, venture capitalists, emerging growth companies, and the GS Economics team. Amidst ongoing pol ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductors - **Date**: March 7, 2025 Company-Specific Insights Broadcom (AVGO) - **Market Opportunity**: AVGO reiterated a Serviceable Available Market (SAM) of $60-90 billion by FY27, indicating strong growth potential in the semiconductor space [2][2] - **Customer Engagements**: Announced two new hyperscale customer engagements, enhancing their market position [2][2] - **AI Sales Growth**: AI Networking contributed significantly, accounting for 40% of AI sales, showcasing the company's strong performance in AI-related products [2][2] - **Export Restrictions**: Management noted no current impact from export restrictions, contrasting with reports of a canceled chip order from ByteDance [2][2] Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) - **Earnings Performance**: MRVL's stock fell approximately 20% following disappointing earnings and guidance, particularly regarding Trainium2 volumes [3][3] - **ASP Adjustments**: Average Selling Price (ASP) was lowered to $2,000, reflecting challenges in unit shipments [3][3] - **Positive Outlook**: Despite short-term challenges, management expressed optimism about their relationship with Amazon and future generations of Trainium [3][3] - **Optical Momentum**: Continued growth in optical products, particularly in 800G and 1.6T segments [3][3] NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - **Demand Outlook**: Fubon lowered NVDA's CoWoS demand expectations for 2025 due to demand and production issues, with Q1 production dropping to 400-500k from 700k in Q4 [4][4] - **Product Shift**: Noted a shift from air-filled racks to liquid-cooled solutions, impacting demand for certain products [4][4] - **Strong Blackwell Demand**: Despite the overall outlook, demand for Blackwell remains robust, with no cancellations from customers [4][4] ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) - **Acquisition Proposal**: ON's acquisition proposal for Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) was rejected, offering a 57% premium at $35.10 per share [5][5] - **Strategic Rationale**: The acquisition aimed to strengthen ON's portfolio in Autos and Industrials, with minimal product overlap [5][5] - **Financial Implications**: The transaction is expected to be gross margin accretive immediately, with EPS accretion anticipated by 2027 [7][7] Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP) - **Business Update**: MCHP reported improved booking trends in January and February, with operational expenses decreasing [8][8] - **Cost Savings**: Expected annualized savings of $100 million, with partial realization in the June quarter [8][8] - **Cyclical Recovery**: MCHP is viewed as a cyclical recovery play, currently operating at 50% below normalized run rates [8][8] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The semiconductor industry is experiencing volatility, with companies like AVGO and MCHP positioned for growth despite challenges faced by others like MRVL and NVDA [2][3][4][8] - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies mentioned in the report include AVGO, MRVL, NVDA, ON, and MCHP, with varying outlooks based on their recent performance and market conditions [31][31] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance and outlook of major players in the semiconductor industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Internet industry in China**, focusing on advancements in **AI technology** and the competitive landscape among major players like **Alibaba Cloud** and **Tencent** [1][4]. Core Insights - **Alibaba Cloud** launched the **QwQ-32B model** on March 6, which utilizes **reinforcement learning (RL)** to enhance reasoning capabilities, outperforming traditional training methods. The model is comparable to leading models like **DeepSeek-R1**, which has **671 billion parameters** [2]. - The **Manus AI agent**, developed by **Butterfly Effect**, has gained significant attention for its autonomous capabilities and multi-agent system powered by models such as **Claude**, **DeepSeek**, and **GPT-4**. Manus has received **State of the Art (SOTA)** recognition from **GAIA** [3]. - **Tencent** is positioned to become a **Super AI Agent** through its platform **Weixin**, leveraging its vast user base and integration of AI strategies. The upcoming conference call on **March 19** will focus on AI and cloud capital expenditures, monetization models, and user feedback on product integration [4]. Financial Projections and Capital Expenditure - **Alibaba** plans to invest over **RMB 380 billion** (approximately **$54 billion**) in AI and cloud capital expenditures over the next three years, averaging over **RMB 127 billion** (around **$18 billion**) per year. This aligns with market expectations for rapid growth in the AI sector [4]. - **Tencent** is expected to spend about **RMB 100 billion** (approximately **$14 billion**) in 2025 on AI and cloud initiatives, which is less than its competitors like Alibaba and ByteDance [4]. Market Valuation - The valuation of the **Chinese internet sector** is considered **undemanding**, trading at a discount compared to **US peers**. The anticipated growth in AI is expected to initiate a new market cycle, with recent earnings from major companies meeting or exceeding expectations [5]. Additional Insights - The call highlights the importance of **user feedback** on product integration with dual large models **Hunyuan** and **DeepSeek**, as well as the opportunities and challenges presented by AI agents [4]. - The overall sentiment in the industry is optimistic, with expectations for significant advancements and investments in AI technology, which could reshape the competitive landscape in the coming years [1][4].