美国将于周四公布当周初请失业金人数，周五发布的12月非农就业报告则是市场关注的焦点。市场预期 12月新增就业约6万人，失业率或小幅降至4.5%。这些数据将为评估美国经济韧性及美联储未来利率路 径提供重要依据。 若就业数据不及预期，可能强化市场对美联储年内降息的预期，进而压低实际利率，降低持有无息资产 黄金的机会成本，对金价构成支撑；反之，若数据表现强劲，金价短期或继续承压整理。 摘要今日周四(1月8日)亚市时段，黄金小幅回落至4450美元附近，此前因地缘避险情绪推动快速拉升并 刷新阶段性高位，短线涨幅较大引发部分交易者获利了结，上涨动能暂缓。当前市场对地缘局势的担忧 有所降温，风险偏好边际修复，黄金避险买盘暂时减弱。 今日周四(1月8日)亚市时段，黄金小幅回落至4450美元附近，此前因地缘避险情绪推动快速拉升并刷新 阶段性高位，短线涨幅较大引发部分交易者获利了结，上涨动能暂缓。当前市场对地缘局势的担忧有所 降温，风险偏好边际修复，黄金避险买盘暂时减弱。 【基本面解析】 与此同时，市场逐渐进入观望模式，静待本周美国一系列关键宏观数据集中公布。当前金价回落更多是 前期大幅上涨后的正常获利回吐，而非趋势性反转。 黄 ...

Market Overview - Corn starch futures experienced high volatility, with the main contract reported at 2530.00 CNY, a slight increase of 0.60% [1] - As of January 7, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 12,477 corn starch futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 122 from the previous trading day [1] Positioning Data - On January 7, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 156,800 long positions and 196,100 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.8 [1] - The net position decreased by 3,625 contracts to -39,200 contracts compared to the previous day [1] Price Comparison - The spot price for corn starch in Changchun, Jilin, was quoted at 2,620.00 CNY/ton, which is 82.0 CNY/ton higher than the futures main price of 2,538.00 CNY/ton [1] Institutional Insights - Starch prices are performing relatively weaker than corn, with stable spot prices across regions and minor declines in various contracts [2] - Despite a loose supply-demand situation in the starch industry, the price gap is at a low level, and there are signs of improvement in downstream consumption [2] - The narrowing space for the starch-corn price gap suggests a cautious bullish outlook, with recommendations for conservative investors to observe and aggressive investors to hold previous long positions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic cotton yarn futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract showing a slight increase of 0.05% to 20,995.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1]. Market Information - As of January 7, the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained stable at 37, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - Valentin Olah from StoneX Risk Management indicates that ICE cotton prices are catching up with the rising prices of Chinese cotton and cotton yarn, and are beginning to price in expectations of reduced planting areas for the year [1]. - For the week of December 29 to January 2, the average price of domestic 32-count pure cotton combed yarn was 21,410 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 203 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [1]. - The average spot price of Indian 32-count pure cotton combed yarn was 21,170 yuan/ton, up by 76 yuan/ton week-on-week [1]. - The average spot price of Vietnamese 32-count pure cotton combed yarn was 20,920 yuan/ton, which increased by 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [1].

【现货方面】华北6460(+60)/05-180(+0)华东6440(+60)/05-100(+0)华南6650(+120)/05+10(+60) 【供需库存数据】 库存：截止1月6日，社库累0.97万吨 【观点】上游厂商持续挺价，现货价格随盘面跟涨70-100元/吨，华北基差维持05合约贴水180元/吨区 间，代理渠道出货尚可，套保较昨日清淡。传闻引发供应收缩预期("石脑油流通环节征收消费税")，若 政策落地，裂解装置成本压力将加剧，叠加部分全密度装置转产HDPE，标品(LLDPE)边际供应缩减预 期强化。情绪端，补空需求与产业买货共振，现货正反馈加速价格上行，短期易涨难跌格局延续，需关 注政策落地节奏及下游对高价货源接受度。 【策略】短期多2605 供应：产能利用率83.39%(+0.04%)。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循 ...

全球央行政策分化与去美元化形成博弈。日央行加息、欧央行慎降息，缩小美元利差优势；2025年金价 暴涨超70%反映美元信用担忧，但美元储备结算地位暂难替代，避险属性仍存。 技术面要点 美元指数突破短期阻力，站上多条短期均线。支撑位98.455、98.230；阻力位98.660、99.381。RSI逼近 超买，需警惕回调风险。 短期维持趋势性博弈，全年或偏弱但有阶段性反弹。重点关注美联储政策、非农及PCE数据、地缘风险 与关税案。机构预测2026年或跌3%，经济韧性与政策不确定性可能引发反弹。 1月8日，美元指数走强，纽约收盘涨0.5%至109.090。主要汇率表现：欧元兑美元1.0309、英镑兑美元 1.2357(均下跌)；美元兑日元158.46、瑞郎0.9117、加元1.4389(均上涨)。核心驱动为美联储政策分歧、 美经济数据分化及全球央行政策差异。 美联储政策分歧主导美元波动。2025年三次降息后，2026年官员及机构分歧达十年峰值：部分主张降息 超100基点，部分建议暂停降息甚至加息；鲍威尔任期将结束，接任者政策倾向不明，加剧市场迷茫。 美经济数据好坏交织：1月CPI反弹至3.0%支撑美元，但零售销售跌 ...

瑞士作为传统避险经济体，瑞郎的避险属性在当前全球市场环境中得到凸显。近期全球地缘政治局势复 杂多变，中东冲突持续升级，欧洲经济复苏乏力，市场避险情绪有所升温，资金流向瑞郎等避险资产， 间接推动美元兑瑞郎下行。此外，瑞士银行业盈利能力改善，外汇储备规模稳定，进一步增强了瑞郎的 基本面支撑。 技术分析 从技术图形上来看，美元兑瑞郎日线级别呈现震荡下行趋势，当前汇价失守MA5均线支撑，短期空头 趋势占优。RSI指标当前读数为41，处于中性偏空区间，尚未进入超卖区域，下跌动能仍有延续空间； 小时级别MACD图显示绿色动能柱温和放大，死叉信号持续，短期回调压力未减。支撑位方面，关注 0.8720一线(近期震荡区间下沿)及0.8700整数关口，若下方失守则可能测试0.8680附近的38.2%斐波那契 回撤位；阻力位先看0.8760附近(MA10均线位置)，若上方突破则可能向0.8780一线发起冲击。 展望后市，美元兑瑞郎短期大概率维持震荡回落态势，后续需重点关注三大变量：一是美联储1月议息 会议政策指引，若释放更明确的宽松信号，可能加速美元回调；二是瑞士央行官员讲话及通胀数据，若 通胀持续低于目标，可能提前降息预期，削弱 ...

金投白银网提供今日白银期货价格走势_今天白银期货价格走势（2026年1月8日） 打开APP，查看更多高清行情》 金投白银网(http://ag.cngold.org)为您提供最新白银期货价格、白银期货合约、白银期货交易以及白银期 货走势，更多白银期货行情敬请关注：白银期货专栏 备注：以上白银的价格仅供参考，请以官方报价为准。如对白银投资有疑问可咨询本站客服。 今日白银期货价格查询（2026年1月8日） | 名称 | 最新价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 昨收价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 19246.00 | 19289.00 | 18683.00 | 19290.00 | ...

同期，实际招聘人数减少25.3万，至511.5万个，显示就业增长依然疲弱，尽管第三季度经济保持强劲。 裁员人数也有所下降，企业在不愿新增员工的同时，仍选择保留现有劳动力，使市场处于"低招聘、低 裁员"状态——在职员工岗位安全感较高，但失业人员再就业难度较大。 经济学家指出，进口关税等政策不确定性令企业在扩员方面保持谨慎，导致经济增长与就业改善出现脱 钩，形成"无就业增长式扩张"。此外，人工智能技术的应用也削弱了对部分岗位的人力需求。 市场普遍预期，劳工统计局周五将公布12月非农就业人数或增加6万人，略低于11月的6.4万。焦点将集 中在失业率变化，预计将从11月的4.6%小幅回落至4.5%。11月失业率升至逾四年高位，部分原因是联 邦政府停摆干扰家庭调查数据，甚至导致10月失业率数据未能公布，这是自1948年有统计以来的首次。 摘要今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于998.94元/克附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报999.38 元/克，跌幅0.24%，最高上探至1004.15元/克，最低触及998.95元/克。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向震荡 走势。 今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于998. ...

Supply - Production shows signs of stabilization, with molten iron increasing by 0.03 million tons to 2.26 million tons. The total output of five major materials decreased by 1.15 million tons to 7.968 million tons, with rebar increasing by 2.7 million tons to 1.844 million tons and hot-rolled coil increasing by 1.6 million tons to 2.935 million tons [2] - Environmental factors and year-end maintenance in December significantly impacted production, with a decrease of nearly 200,000 tons from high levels, representing a 6.7% month-on-month decline. A recovery in production is expected in January after maintenance, but limited by seasonal demand and inventory conditions [2] Demand - Seasonal weakness in demand is evident, with December's apparent demand at 8.45 million tons, down from 8.75 million tons in November and showing a significant year-on-year decline from 8.75 million tons. The apparent demand for five major materials decreased by 1.7 million tons to 8.336 million tons, with rebar demand down by 60,000 tons to 2.027 million tons, while hot-rolled coil demand increased by 87,000 tons to 3.07 million tons [3] Inventory - Steel mills have slowed down production cuts, but due to significant reductions last week, the inventory of hot-rolled coils has decreased rapidly. The inventory of five major materials decreased by 370,000 tons to 12.57 million tons, with rebar inventory down by 180,000 tons to 4.34 million tons and hot-rolled coil inventory down by 135,000 tons to 3.77 million tons [4] Market Outlook - Black metals have surged, with coking coal hitting the limit and rebar and hot-rolled coil futures rising by 80-90 yuan per ton, marking the largest daily increase since August. The overall strength in coal-related commodities is noted, while the fundamental steel market continues to see production cuts and inventory reductions, with rebar maintaining a significant supply-demand gap [5] - The expected price range for rebar is between 3,000 and 3,200 yuan, while hot-rolled coil is expected to fluctuate between 3,150 and 3,350 yuan [5]

Market Overview - As of January 7, coking coal futures showed a strong upward trend, with the near-month contract rising by 51.5 (+4.75%) to 1135.0 and the main contract increasing by 68.0 (+6.2%) to 1164.0 [1] Supply - As of December 31, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines was 79.76%, down by 2.89% month-on-month, with raw coal production at 805.56 million tons per week, a decrease of 29.17 million tons week-on-week [2] - The inventory of raw coal stood at 222.15 million tons, up by 17.5 million tons week-on-week, while the production of premium coal was 410.26 million tons per week, down by 17.43 million tons week-on-week [2] Demand - As of December 31, the average daily output of coke from independent coking plants was 62.7 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons week-on-week [3] - The average daily pig iron output was 227.43 million tons, up by 0.85 million tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 78.94%, an increase of 0.62% [3] Inventory - As of December 31, the total inventory of coking coal (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, ports, and terminals) increased by 59.7 million tons to 4104.3 million tons [4] - The inventory at 523 mines rose by 1.5 million tons to 528.8 million tons, while the inventory at 314 washing plants increased by 1.6 million tons to 531.6 million tons [4] Market Sentiment - The strong rise in coking coal futures was noted, with the main contract hitting the limit up. However, the spot prices in Shanxi showed weak performance, and the trading environment remains cautious with high auction failure rates [5] - The supply side is seeing a slight recovery in daily coal production as mines resume operations, but sales remain sluggish, leading to inventory accumulation [5] - On the demand side, steel mills are experiencing reduced losses, and pig iron production is stable, although coking profits are declining, leading to a slight decrease in operational rates [5] Policy and Strategy - The main policy focus remains on ensuring coal supply for power plants, with reports indicating that 26 coal mines in Shaanxi may be removed from the supply guarantee list, reducing capacity by 19 million tons, pending verification [5] - The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach until policy confirmations are made, with an emphasis on arbitrage opportunities between coking coal and coke [5]