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Is Oklo A $14 Billion “Paper Reactor” Bubble?
Forbes· 2025-12-02 15:15
CHONGQING, CHINA - AUGUST 08: In this photo illustration, a person holds a smartphone displaying the logo of Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO), an advanced nuclear energy company developing compact fast reactors, with the company's circular symbol visible in the background, on August 8, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)Getty ImagesYou missed the easy money in Nvidia. You watched Constellation Energy soar as it restarted Three Mile Island. Now, you are looking at Oklo Inc. (NYSE: ...
What If OPEN Stock Plummets?
Forbes· 2025-12-02 15:00
Core Insights - Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) stock has experienced an 8.2% decline in a single day, raising concerns about the company's resilience amid shifting real estate conditions and challenges in capital-intensive iBuying [2] - The company is valued at $7 billion with $4.7 billion in revenue, currently trading at $7.14, indicating a very weak operational performance and low valuation [2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue growth over the last 12 months is reported at -4.5%, with an operating margin of -4.3% [2] - The company's Debt to Equity ratio stands at 0.3, and the Cash to Assets ratio is 0.36, reflecting its liquidity position [2] Valuation Metrics - Opendoor Technologies stock is trading at a P/E multiple of -18.7 and a P/EBIT multiple of -32.7 [8] - Historically, the stock has returned a median of -37.3% within a year after sharp declines since 2010 [8] Stock Performance Analysis - The stock has seen a dramatic decline of 97.3% from its peak of $35.88 on February 11, 2021, to $0.97 on December 27, 2022, while the S&P 500 experienced a peak-to-trough drop of only 25.4% during the same period [9] - The highest price achieved since the decline was $10.52 on September 11, 2025, with the current trading price at $7.14 [9] - The stock also declined by 41.3% from a high of $26.48 on October 14, 2020, to $15.55 on November 2, 2020, compared to a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500, although it fully recovered to its pre-crisis peak by December 9, 2020 [9] Market Resilience Consideration - Concerns arise regarding the stock's resilience if the market experiences a downturn, with potential further declines of 20-30% to $5 being a critical threshold for investor confidence [4]
Oil Isn't Cheap But It Might Become So
Forbes· 2025-12-02 13:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of oil prices, suggesting that while some believe oil is undervalued, the reality is more complex and influenced by various unpredictable factors [2][4][5]. Oil Price Comparisons - Claims that oil is cheap compared to other commodities are often misleading, as such comparisons do not account for the functional differences between these products [3]. - The perception of oil being 'cheap' is subjective and oversimplified, as it varies based on individual perspectives [3]. Factors Influencing Oil Prices - Potential price increases could occur due to a booming global economy, tightened sanctions against Russia and Iran, or significant production cuts by OPEC+ [4]. - Oil price predictions are highly dependent on unpredictable political actions and economic uncertainties [5]. Historical Context of Oil Prices - Oil price modeling has evolved since the 1970s, with significant fluctuations influenced by geopolitical events and market dynamics [6][10]. - Historical oil price cycles show that prices have been manipulated by major producers to maintain higher levels, particularly during the OPEC era [10][11]. Recent Trends and Future Outlook - The current market dynamics suggest a shift from resource nationalism to resource rationalism, indicating a potential increase in production capacity as countries seek economic gains [17][18]. - Countries under sanctions, such as Iran and Venezuela, may significantly increase production if sanctions are lifted, adding millions of barrels per day to the market [18]. - Argentina's success in shale oil production may inspire other nations to adopt similar strategies, potentially leading to increased global oil supply [19][20]. Price Predictions - A more favorable political climate for petroleum investment could lead to price moderation, with expectations of oil prices stabilizing around $55 per barrel rather than reaching $100 [21].
Why Marvell Wants To Buy Celestial AI
Forbes· 2025-12-02 13:35
Core Viewpoint - Marvell Technology is in advanced talks to acquire Celestial AI in a cash-and-stock deal potentially valued at over $5 billion, aiming to enhance its capabilities in AI technology and reduce existing bottlenecks in AI model training and execution [1][6]. Group 1: Acquisition Rationale - The acquisition is driven by the need to address the limitations of current electrical systems in AI, which are too slow and power-consuming, thereby hindering the scalability of AI clusters [3][4]. - Celestial AI's technology utilizes photonics, which allows signaling with light instead of electricity, providing a solution to the critical bottleneck in large-scale AI model operations [3][7]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - This deal is strategically transformative for Marvell, as it aims to offer hyperscalers like Google and Microsoft a superior end-to-end solution that significantly reduces latency and power consumption [4][6]. - Marvell's acquisition of Celestial AI could enhance investor sentiment and confidence, especially following a 20% decline in stock value year-to-date due to mixed earnings and order delays [6][7]. Group 3: Competitive Advantage - By acquiring Celestial AI, Marvell gains a crucial differentiating factor in the competitive landscape against larger rivals like Broadcom in the custom AI chips and networking silicon market [7]. - The deal could provide Marvell access to a valuable talent pool of leading U.S. silicon-photonics engineers currently at Celestial AI, further strengthening its technological capabilities [7]. - Celestial AI's existing relationships with key hyperscalers could secure long-term design wins and predictable revenue streams, aligning with Marvell's aggressive target of over $2.5 billion in AI sales by 2026 [7].
Tesla Stock: Priced For Sci-Fi, Still Selling Cars
Forbes· 2025-12-02 12:10
Core Insights - Tesla is at a critical point as it faces challenges in its core electric vehicle business while being valued at a premium due to expectations of future advancements in AI and autonomy [2][4][9] Automotive Division Challenges - The automotive division remains the primary source of Tesla's revenue but is currently facing significant difficulties [3] - Tesla's automotive gross margins have decreased to approximately 16% to 18%, down from over 25%, bringing it closer to the margins of traditional automakers like Ford [7][9] - In the U.S., EV sales dropped by about 30% year-over-year in October due to the expiration of federal EV tax credits, leading to a demand vacuum [7] - In Europe, Tesla registrations fell by 48.5% in October as consumers shift towards newer, more affordable alternatives from competitors [7] Valuation Discrepancy - Tesla's stock is trading at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of around 260x projected 2025 earnings, while traditional automakers trade at 7x to 12x [4] - This valuation premium is largely attributed to the "AI Premium," as investors focus on potential future developments in AI rather than current automotive performance [4] Energy Division Performance - Tesla Energy is the only segment showing significant success, with revenue from energy generation and storage increasing by nearly 44% in Q3, driven by demand for Megapacks [5] - Despite this growth, the energy division alone cannot justify Tesla's trillion-dollar valuation or offset losses from the automotive sector [5] Future Prospects and Risks - The company's aspirations for autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots are facing delays and regulatory challenges, with limited progress reported on Full Self-Driving (FSD) licensing [8] - Free cash flow has decreased from $8.5 billion in 2022 to $4.4 billion in 2023, with projections of around $3.6 billion in 2024, raising concerns about the sustainability of Tesla's AI initiatives [9]
Nvidia's Real Risk: Hardware That Ages Too Fast?
Forbes· 2025-12-02 11:46
In this photo illustration the Nvidia logo is shown on a mobile phone against the illustration of a stock market graph illustration displayed on a computer screen Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57 billion - up 62 per cent year-on-year - November 20, 2025. (Photo by Dominika Zarzycka/NurPhoto via Getty Images)NurPhoto via Getty ImagesMichael Burry, the renowned investor known for predicting the 2008 housing crash, is once again placing bets against a seemingly unbeatable market. This time, he is f ...
Buy or Sell ADBE Stock At $320?
Forbes· 2025-12-02 11:45
CHINA - 2025/09/24: In this photo illustration, Adobe's logo is displayed on the screen of the tablet. (Photo Illustration by Sheldon Cooper/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesAdobe Stock (NASDAQ: ADBE) has seen a notable decline of 27% year-to-date. This downturn has been influenced by various elements, such as market apprehensions regarding increased competition from AI-focused firms and doubts about Adobe's ability to effectively capitalize on its significant ...
Too Soon To Buy Datavault Stock?
Forbes· 2025-12-02 10:55
Core Insights - Datavault AI Inc. (NASDAQ: DVLT) has seen an 18% increase in stock price over the past week, despite a 23% decline over the last month, indicating growing investor confidence in the company's progress on its Real World Asset (RWA) roadmap [2][12] Company Overview - Datavault AI operates at the intersection of AI, data management, and Web3, focusing on converting real-world assets into tokenized digital products via blockchain technology [5][6] - The company’s ecosystem includes tools for tokenization, data analysis, and high-performance computing to support global data exchanges and RWA platforms [12] Business Model - DVLT generates revenue through licensing royalties and transaction fees from tokenized assets, positioning itself as the foundational layer for enterprise tokenization [6] - Income sources include upfront fees, perpetual royalties, and ongoing transaction fees from data exchanges [6] Recent Developments - The stock surge is attributed to securing two significant contracts with Triton Geothermal and MTB Mining, valued at over $15 million, which include perpetual royalty streams [7] - The company has completed a strategic equity financing round, enhancing liquidity and alleviating cash pressures [8] - Management reports increasing interest from various sectors, suggesting potential for scaling the tokenization model internationally [9] Financial Performance - DVLT's Q3 revenue was $2.9 million, with a net loss of approximately $33 million, and a high price-to-sales ratio nearing 10x compared to the market average of 3x [10] - Margins are weak, with an operating margin of –754% and a net margin of –1,310%, indicating fragile business fundamentals [11] - Revenue has increased by 148% year-over-year and over 400% in the most recent quarter, with a forecast of over $200 million in FY 2026 [12][13]
Could Coinbase Stock Crash 90%?
Forbes· 2025-12-02 10:35
Core Viewpoint - Coinbase Global stock has decreased by nearly 25% over the last month, primarily due to a sharp decline in crypto markets rather than company-specific issues [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin prices fell from over $120,000 in October to the low-$80,000s in November, significantly impacting Coinbase's stock [2] - A wave of involuntary deleveraging in crypto markets led to automatic selling, exacerbating the price crash [7] - Uncertainty regarding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in December added pressure on risk assets, particularly in the crypto sector [7] Group 2: Company-Specific Factors - Coinbase's high fixed-cost structure means that declining crypto prices negatively impact its operating leverage, leading to reduced transaction revenues [7] - Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) metric tends to drop as retail investors withdraw during downturns [7] - Institutional fees associated with Assets Under Custody decrease as asset values decline, further affecting revenue [7] Group 3: Financial Performance - Coinbase's revenue growth has been strong, with approximately 23% annual growth over the past three years and nearly 49% growth in the last twelve months, increasing total revenue from around $4.7 billion to $7.0 billion [7] - Operating income is nearing $2 billion, with net income close to $3 billion and net margins exceeding 40% [7] - The stock is trading at a Price-to-Earnings Ratio of 23.5x, in line with the S&P 500, but with higher cash flow and revenue multiples [7] Group 4: Historical Context and Volatility - Coinbase's stock has historically been more volatile, plummeting over 90% compared to a 25% drop for the S&P 500, requiring 911 days for full recovery [7] - During risk-off periods, crypto activity diminishes quickly, leading to contraction in valuation multiples and revenue declines [7] - The stock remains highly correlated with Bitcoin, indicating that significant drops in BTC could lead to further declines in Coinbase's stock due to simultaneous decreases in transaction volumes and asset values [7]
Nvidia's $2 Billion Synopsys Investment Makes 2025's Top AI Deals (Full List, Ranked)
Forbes· 2025-12-01 18:40
Core Insights - Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment in Synopsys as part of a broader partnership, marking one of the largest AI-related deals this year, with expectations of increased global spending on AI in the coming years [1][12] - Global annual AI spending is projected to reach $375 billion by the end of this year and exceed $3 trillion annually by 2030, according to UBS [1] Major AI Deals - OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle are collaborating on a new company called "Stargate," with plans to invest up to $500 billion in AI infrastructure in the U.S. [3] - OpenAI signed a contract with Oracle for $300 billion in computing power over the next five years [4] - Nvidia is investing $100 billion in OpenAI, which will utilize Nvidia's systems for AI model training [4] - Amazon plans to invest up to $50 billion to enhance AI infrastructure for U.S. government clients [5] - Anthropic announced a $50 billion investment in AI infrastructure, creating jobs in Texas and New York [6] - Oracle will purchase $40 billion worth of Nvidia's AI chips for OpenAI's data center [6] - OpenAI and Amazon's partnership is valued at $38 billion, involving cloud computing services and Nvidia processors [7] - Oracle disclosed a $30 billion cloud services agreement with OpenAI [8] - Anthropic will acquire $30 billion in cloud computing capacity from Microsoft [8] - Google plans to invest $25 billion in data centers and AI infrastructure over the next two years [9] - CoreWeave's partnership with OpenAI is valued at approximately $22.4 billion [9] - Oracle confirmed a $20 billion cloud-computing deal with Meta for AI model training [10] - Nvidia's agreement with CoreWeave for cloud services is valued at $6.3 billion [11] - The Energy Department partnered with AMD for a $1 billion project to develop AI-powered supercomputers [13]