Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the underestimation of recession risks in the U.S. by global asset pricing, emphasizing the need for new asset allocation strategies in the context of the debt cycle [3][16]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The current pricing levels of U.S. equities significantly deviate from the implied risks indicated by recent soft data, suggesting a potential mispricing in the market [4][8]. - The U.S. Soft CAI reflects subjective expectations of future economic conditions from businesses and consumers, which may not align with actual market performance [11][12]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Recent market sentiment has been overly optimistic, as indicated by the VIX futures returning to a contango state, suggesting rising expectations of volatility and accumulated risks [12][14]. - The BNP global risk premium index has reached historical low levels, indicating high market sentiment towards U.S. equities [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article suggests a contrarian approach to U.S. equity allocation, focusing on defensive sectors in light of the current market conditions and potential risks [11][12]. - The analysis highlights the importance of monitoring economic policy uncertainty and its impact on equity risk premiums, which are currently misaligned with soft data indicators [9][10].

董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 部分投资者仍然对"新投资范式"认识不足。特朗普政府企图通过非常规手段化解当前全球供给与需求失 衡，世界秩序重塑的底层逻辑不可逆。新投资范式三大宏观交易背景：美债利率higher for longer+中债利率lower for longer+全球风险溢价中枢抬升。 ● 战略层面：全球资产定价显著低估了美国衰退风险。 中长期投资者需要深刻解读世界秩序重塑的方向和权衡各 类资产的性价比，并且关注组合中存在的非对称定价风险。当前全球投资者对于美国经济的判断存在巨大的分 歧，如果从美债利率倒挂的信号来看，当前市场显著低估了美国经济衰退的风险。我们认为当前全球大类资产的 非对称定价的风险主要在于美国资产对于衰退的风险定价严重不足。因此，美国"衰退交易"是非常好的非对称交 易——即赢多输少的交易策略。 ● 中长期而言，关税强化了新范式的三大底层逻辑（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、AI产业趋势），仍是基于全 天候策略调整的反脆弱的"全球杠铃策略"。 仍然建议在"全球杠铃策略"组合中下调↓美股 ...

Introduction - The article discusses the "new investment paradigm" and highlights the ongoing restructuring of the global order, driven by unconventional methods to address the current global supply-demand imbalance [3][9]. Strategic Level - Global asset pricing significantly underestimates the risk of a U.S. recession, with a notable divergence in investor sentiment regarding the U.S. economy [3][18]. - The current market is seen as having a substantial mispricing of recession risks, particularly in U.S. assets, suggesting that a "recession trade" could be a favorable asymmetric trading strategy [3][52]. - The article emphasizes the need for long-term investors to deeply understand the direction of the global order's restructuring and to assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets [22][51]. Tactical Level - Short-term sentiment in global risk assets, particularly U.S. equities, is perceived to be overstretched, following a significant rebound catalyzed by tariff easing [5][53]. - Indicators such as the VIX futures returning to a contango state and the BNP global risk premium index reaching historical lows suggest high market sentiment but also an accumulation of risk [5][56]. - The article advises a contrarian approach to U.S. equity allocation, focusing on defensive sectors in the short term while monitoring developments in negotiations with key global players [5][64]. Macro Trading Background - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury yields expected to remain high for an extended period, Chinese bond yields expected to remain low, and an elevation in the global risk premium [3][13]. - The article outlines the implications of these macroeconomic factors on global asset correlations and volatility, indicating a potential long-term disruption to existing asset allocation frameworks [13][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that global major asset classes have shown significant recovery, particularly risk assets such as equities, commodities, and alternatives, following positive developments in US-China trade talks [4][10] - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response for asset allocation in the context of a changing investment paradigm, focusing on three tactical opportunities for aggressive buying: improved win rates due to easing trade tensions, attractive valuations of Chinese assets, and liquidity issues leading to opportunities [5][13] - The article highlights that the strategic long-term view is influenced by three underlying logics: the intensification of de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry, reinforcing the need for an all-weather strategy to balance risks and returns [5][13] Group 2 - Key financial indicators from May 5 to May 13 show a convergence in the SOFR-OIS spread, indicating a slight easing of US dollar liquidity, and an increase in the US financial conditions index, reflecting improved overall financial conditions [6][10] - The article provides a calendar of important global economic data releases and events from May 19 to June 1, including China's fixed asset investment and retail sales, as well as US initial jobless claims and GDP estimates [16] - The focus charts track global major asset dynamics, showing significant movements in various asset classes and their correlations, which are essential for understanding market trends and making informed investment decisions [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the irreversible logic behind the restructuring of the global order and the new investment paradigm, driven by unconventional policies from the Trump administration to address global supply and demand imbalances [3][4][14]. Group 1: Globalization and G2 Imbalances - The globalization process has intensified the trade, production, and debt imbalances between the G2 nations, with the U.S. positioned as the largest consumer and China as the largest producer [9][13]. - Since China's accession to the WTO in 2001, the U.S. has increasingly relied on debt expansion to create demand, leading to continuous trade deficits and external debt accumulation, while China has maintained a trade surplus through its manufacturing capabilities [9][13]. - As major economies move away from high growth, the importance of "efficiency" is yielding to "distribution," indicating a long-term trend towards increased de-globalization [9][13]. Group 2: Restructuring Global Order - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" aims to reshape global trade and monetary order through tariffs and the restructuring of U.S. debt, addressing long-standing trade and fiscal deficits while enhancing U.S. export competitiveness [4][11][23]. - Although the full implementation of the Mar-a-Lago Agreement faces significant challenges, understanding its implications is crucial for anticipating future policy directions from the Trump administration [4][11][23]. Group 3: New Investment Paradigm - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury yields remaining "higher for longer," Chinese bond yields remaining "lower for longer," and an increase in global risk premium [5][12][25]. - The ongoing trend of de-globalization and isolationist policies under Trump will exacerbate uncertainties in global economic growth and inflation, reinforcing the underlying logic of the new investment paradigm [5][12][25]. - The elevation of the global risk premium will significantly affect the correlation between major asset classes and increase the volatility of global assets, fundamentally altering the existing global asset allocation framework [5][12][25][33].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the restructuring of the global order is an irreversible underlying logic, driven by unconventional methods to address the current global supply and demand imbalance [3][4][14] - It highlights the increasing imbalance in trade, production, and debt between the G2 countries, with the U.S. as the largest consumer and China as the largest producer [9][13] - The article discusses the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which aims to reshape global trade and monetary order to alleviate the U.S.'s long-standing current account and fiscal deficits [11][23] Group 2 - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury rates being "higher for longer," Chinese bond rates being "lower for longer," and an increase in global risk premium [5][12][32] - The article suggests that the ongoing trend of de-globalization will significantly disrupt the existing global asset allocation framework [9][13][33] - It notes that the U.S. reliance on debt expansion has led to continuous current account deficits and manufacturing hollowing out, while China benefits from a persistent trade surplus [9][13]

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 推荐理由 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 致致致致致敬敬敬敬敬每每每每每一一一一一位位位位位平平平平平凡凡凡凡凡而而而而而伟伟伟伟伟大大大大大的的的的的劳劳劳劳劳动动动动动者者者者者 《金融炼金术 》 乔治·索罗斯 • 《金融炼金术》是金融巨鳄乔治·索罗斯的哲学沉思录，更是一部颠覆传统经济 学范式的经典之作。不同于主流经济学对"理性人"假设的迷恋，索罗斯以"反身 性理论"为核心，揭示了金融市场中参与者认知与客观现实互相作用的动态本质 ——人的偏见会扭曲市场，而扭曲的市场又进一步强化偏见，形成永动的反馈 循环。这一理论不仅解释了他为何能精准狙击英镑、预言金融危机，更提供了 一种理解复杂系统的思维方式：市场不是冰冷的数学游戏，而是人性与规则的 共振场。 《中国的选择 》 新加坡 马凯硕 推荐理由 • 以全球视角深度解析中国发展逻辑与外交战略。作者结合历史纵深与现实案 例，客观呈现中国崛起背后的制度韧性、文化基因与治理智慧，同时直面西方 误读，揭示中西博弈的本质差异。书中既有对"一带一路""人类命运共同体"等战 略的透彻分析，又通过经济数据与民生改善案例，展现中国道路的实践成 ...

新书推介 N e w B o o k R e c o m m e n d a t i o n 《策略投资：从方法到进化论》 戴康 郑恺 韦冀星 倪赓 等著 致敬每一位平凡而伟大的劳动者 01 本书亮点 理解策略之"道"，万变不离其宗。 本书从策略研究框架的迭代出发，思考A 股投资环境"变化"带 来的策略研究"进化"，沿着大势研判、风格配置、行业比较、新兴产业、选股策略等方向，展开 从基础到进阶全面的策略研究，是作者十余年策略研究的思考成果与总结。 本书具有以下几个特点: 其一，与回顾历史、复盘股市的书籍不同，本书更希望能提供多年沉淀 下来的万变不离其宗的策略研究框架，化繁为简；其二，与年代较为久远的方法论不同，本书更 希望能提供近年来 A 股新生态进化与迭代的思考，立于浪尖；其三，作者力求避免陷入"宏大叙 事，不接地气"的怪圈，在书中运用了大量实例，以实践检验真理，充分体现了公众号"戴康的策 略世界"的宗旨——致力于最前瞻与最接地气的策略研究。 02 大咖推荐 林传辉 广发证券董事长 本书作者戴康长期深耕投资策略研究，对策略投资的艺术性有深切的体悟。随着中国经济的发展，传统的策 投资思维必须随之迭代，这就是本 ...

E 3 25 大分 FES 点击蓝字"戴康的策略世界"关注我们《！ 右上角假范围冠冠,更新内容第一时间推送~《 者司机"戴" 你上车 投资新范式 把脉全球资产配置 戴康 CFA | 广发证券发展研究中心董事总经理 首席资产研究官 新浪财经金麒麟白金分析师 策略投资 次为想起扶贫困系 包揽：2014-2023年新财富最佳分析师、金牛奖、 戴康的策略世界 水晶球等所有重要奖项 著书《策略投资：从方法论到进化论》 荣获京东图书2023百大好书 ly 17 175 THIFF "发证券发展研究中心 国泰君安国际 首席经济学家 资产配置高级分析师 冯晓宇 申万宏源全球资产配置 奶衫子 高级分析师 王持人 巴菲特 04.21–04.25 直播课 04.28–04.30 时期 19-00 日 码 臺 直 指 t and C Production Comment ...

点击蓝空"戴康的策略世界"关注我们《! 右上角假芝国冠冠,更新内容第一时间推送~了 者司机"或" 你上车 投资新范式 把脉全球资产配置 戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心董事总经理 首席资产研究官 新浪财经金麒麟白金分析师 策略投资 包揽：2014-2023年新财富最佳分析师、金牛奖 戴康的策略世界 水晶球等所有重要奖项 著书《策略投资:从方法论到进化论》 荣获京东图书2023百大好书 Choice数据 关税冲击下的策略再平衡 总量视野 · 策略 关税冲击下的 策略再平衡 4、总结：核心策略与尾部风险 T 直播时间：4月23日 周三 15：00 直播看点： 1、关税冲击：新范式下的全球秩序重建 2、中国应对：反脆弱政策与策略博弈 3、资产配置：优化全天候策略 ...