Core Views - China's manufacturing sector accounts for over 30% of the global share, significantly higher than its GDP share of around 18% [2][28] - The global supply-demand mismatch has been minimal due to globalization and China's real estate sector creating excess demand [2][28] - China's strategic focus is on "manufacturing as the foundation of the nation," aiming to upgrade its manufacturing sector and reduce reliance on real estate [3][28] - The "manufacturing as the foundation" strategy will help China navigate internal and external challenges, including globalization headwinds and the transition away from real estate dependency [3][28] Global Supply-Demand Dynamics - Post-WWII, there have been three major global industrial shifts: from the US/Europe to Japan, from Japan to the Four Asian Tigers, and finally to China [31][32][33] - China has become a global manufacturing hub, connecting resource-rich countries with consumer markets in developed nations [34][35] - China's export share has risen significantly since joining the WTO, reaching 14.2% of global exports in 2023 [35][36] - The global supply-demand balance has been maintained due to globalization and China's real estate-driven demand [37] Geopolitical Risks and Supply Chain Disruptions - Rising geopolitical risks, including US-China tensions, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the Red Sea crisis, are disrupting global supply chains [38][39] - The US has shifted from a globalization advocate to a disruptor, imposing sanctions and export controls, particularly targeting China's tech sector [40][42][43] - China faces challenges in both high-end (US sanctions) and low-end manufacturing (so-called "de-Chinaization") [43] Manufacturing Strategy and Industry Opportunities - China's "manufacturing as the foundation" strategy focuses on upgrading traditional industries and embracing globalization [3][28] - Key opportunities include the export and technology sectors, with a focus on industries like semiconductors, AI, and advanced manufacturing [4][5] - The real estate sector is unlikely to see a full recovery, but structural opportunities exist in areas like inventory reduction [4] - Resource industries are expected to see supply-side constraints and strong overseas demand, particularly in commodities like copper and oil [5] Economic and Policy Outlook - China's GDP growth is expected to reach 5.0% in 2024, with manufacturing investment growing at 8.4% [6][28] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow steadily, with a focus on supporting new productive forces [6][7] - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with a focus on supporting high-quality development [9]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观周报 2024 年 08 月 25 日 宏观周报 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 本周看什么？海外宽松、钢铁新政与海南 消费 --宏观周报（20240819-20240825） [Table_Summary] 摘要： 核心观点：本周聚焦四个方向，其一，美国民主党全国代表大会。其二， 海外焦 点。美国非农数据、7 月 FOMC 会议纪要和 JH 会议。其三，钢铁产能置换办法将 迎来修订。其四，7 月海南免税品销售同比-36%，负财富效应下几点反直觉数据。 高频宏观数据：交通运输、煤炭钢铁和农林牧渔景气度提升，文旅消费和建材景气 度待修复。 短期投资建议：债市关注流动性水平能否持续回升；股市重点关注红利扩散与高质 量成长。 热点观察 1：美国民主党全国代表大会。副总统哈里斯正式接受民主党总统候选人 提名。此外，民主党还发布了新的党章。我们认为，11 月，无论是特朗普还是哈 里斯赢得大选，均会推动美国财政赤字的进一步扩张，目前美国 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2024 年 08 月 25 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | 海外市场周报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 上周全球主要市场多数上涨。欧洲股指表现相对强势，法国 CAC40、德国 DAX 均 上涨 1.7%；美股三大指数涨幅在 1.2%-1.5%区间；亚太市场方面，越南 VN30 指 数上涨 2.3%，恒生指数上涨 1.0%，印度 SENSEX30 和日经 225 涨幅均为 0.8%， 韩国综合指数上涨 0.2%。 鲍威尔在 Jackson Hole 上释放较为明确的降息信号，市场短期定价利好消息后 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 芯碁微装(688630.SH) 2024 年 08 月 26 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：机械设备/专用设备 当前价格(元)：54.78 证券分析师 陈蓉芳 资格编号：S0120522060001 邮箱：chenrf＠tebon.com.cn 陈瑜熙 资格编号：S0120524010003 邮箱：chenyx5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 芯碁微装 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|--------|--------|--------| | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅 (%) | -12.80 | -22.62 | -18.47 | | 相对涨幅 (%) | -7.06 | -17.40 | -8.39 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《芯碁微装(688630.SH)：24Q1 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 |行业周报 传媒 2024 年 08 月 26 日 市场表现 -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 传媒 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所、聚源数据 相关研究 1.《芒果超媒（300413.SZ）24H1 业 绩点评：内容驱动会员收入增长，关 注后续孵化 AI 产品》，2024.8.23 2.《新华都（002264.SZ）：携手汾 酒发布"巨匠"新系列，厂商合作关 系深化》，2024.8.23 3.《《黑神话：悟空》持续出圈，有 助于国产游戏精品化、IP 影响力全球 化》，2024.8.20 4.《传媒互联网行业周报：国产 3A 《黑神话悟空》于 8 月 20 日上线， 持 续 关 注 互 联 网 中 期 业 绩 》 ， 2024.8.20 5.《吉比特 24H1 中报业绩点评：Q2 环 比 改 善 ， 主 力 游 戏 企 稳 》 ， 2024.8.19 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 电力设备 2024 年 08 月 23 日 电力设备 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 彭广春 资格编号：S0120522070001 邮箱：penggc＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 电力设备 沪深300 -44% -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《光伏全面进入 N 型时代，BC 电 池增益效果明显》，2024.7.17 2.《提高电网安全高质量发展，南方 电 网 推 动 千 亿 级 设 备 更 新 》， 2024.7.17 3.《光伏多企业布局沙特，出海迈上 新高地》，2024.7.17 4.《阳光电源：全球逆变器龙头企业， 多维度布局新能源业务》，2024.5.28 5.《九洲集团（300040.SZ）： 业绩 短期承压，电网设备+并网规模增量 可期》，2024.5.26 储能电芯出货保持增长，头部厂商出 货量领先 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件：根据 InfoLink 全球锂电池供应链数据库，202 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 芒果超媒(300413.SZ) 2024 年 08 月 23 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：传媒/数字媒体 当前价格(元)：18.58 证券分析师 马笑 资格编号：S0120522100002 邮箱：maxiao＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王梅卿 邮箱：wangmq＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 芒果超媒 沪深300 -43% -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|-------|-------|--------| | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -5.55 | -7.82 | -25.81 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 0.19 | -2.59 | -15.74 | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《芒果超媒（300413.SZ）点评：《歌 手 2024》热度超预期，关注后续片单 及招商情况》，2024.5.21 2.《芒果超媒（300 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 金钼股份(601958.SH) 2024 年 08 月 23 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/小金属 当前价格(元)：9.65 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 金钼股份 沪深300 -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|--------|-------|--------| | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -11.39 | -5.91 | -12.41 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -5.00 | -0.69 | -2.54 | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《金钼股份：钼价高企，业绩创历史 新高》，2024.1.25 2.《金钼股份（601958.SH）： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Gansu Energy Chemical (000552.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has improved year-on-year, and there are promising growth prospects in coal, electricity, and chemical sectors [1][2] - The company reported a revenue of 5.625 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 2.26% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.897 billion yuan, down 29.91% year-on-year [2] - The coal production and sales have increased, while coal prices have slightly declined [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.803 billion yuan, up 7.9% year-on-year but down 0.7% quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 0.361 billion yuan, up 12.1% year-on-year but down 32.8% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The coal production for H1 2024 was 10.32 million tons, an increase of 7.68% year-on-year, with sales of 8.57 million tons, up 6.29% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of commodity coal was 500.6 yuan/ton, down 9.1% year-on-year, while the comprehensive cost was 294 yuan/ton, up 19.2% year-on-year [2] Growth Potential Summary - The company has significant growth potential with ongoing projects expected to yield results in the near future [2] - The company plans to achieve a coal production capacity of 23.14 million tons, power generation capacity of 3 million kilowatts, and chemical production capacity of 1.4 million tons by the end of 2025 [2] - Key projects include the Baiyanzi & Hongshaliang open-pit mine and the Lanzhou New Area thermal power unit, which are expected to enhance production capacity significantly [2] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 11.1 billion yuan, 13.3 billion yuan, and 15.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.7 billion yuan, 2 billion yuan, and 2.3 billion yuan respectively [3][4] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same years are projected to be 7.65, 6.71, and 5.78 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for Mona Lisa (002918.SZ) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of approximately 2.335 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 19.78%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 83 million yuan, down 49.77% year-on-year [3][4] - The building ceramics market is experiencing weak demand, leading the company to actively reduce its engineering business [4] - The company is focusing on enhancing its distribution business, which accounted for 75.63% of total revenue in H1 2024, despite a 4.26% decline [4] - Management expenses have increased significantly, but operating cash flow has improved substantially, growing by 123.25% year-on-year to 376 million yuan in H1 2024 [4] - The company is advancing its green development strategy, aligning with industry trends towards high-quality, low-carbon development [5] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 284 million yuan, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.68 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.88 [6][7] - The company's gross margin for H1 2024 was approximately 26.83%, a decrease of 1.09 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The total revenue forecast for 2024 is approximately 5.011 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.4% [7] - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to be 7.7% for 2024, with a gradual increase expected in subsequent years [7]