Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Bullish," indicating that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index is expected to rise by 20% or more in the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The domestic sales of excavators have accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 21.5% in September 2024, marking five consecutive months of positive cumulative sales growth [4]. - The overall sales of excavators from January to September 2024 totaled 147,381 units, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.96%, but the decline is improving compared to previous months [4]. - The sales of loaders in September 2024 increased by 4.98% year-on-year, with exports showing a significant growth of 17.3% [4]. - The electric loader market is expanding rapidly, with cumulative sales reaching 8,323 units by September 2024, a year-on-year increase of 296.3% [4]. - Recent real estate policies are expected to boost confidence in the sector, leading to a recovery in construction investments, which are closely related to the demand for construction machinery [5]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong brand recognition and efficient cost utilization, such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Shantui [5]. Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - In September 2024, a total of 15,831 excavators were sold, with domestic sales of 7,610 units and exports of 8,221 units [4]. - The cumulative sales of excavators from January to September 2024 show a year-on-year decline of 0.96%, with domestic sales increasing by 8.62% [4]. Loader Sales - In September 2024, a total of 8,072 loaders were sold, with domestic sales of 4,022 units and exports of 4,050 units [4]. - The cumulative sales of loaders from January to September 2024 increased by 4.73%, with exports growing by 10.1% [4]. Market Trends - The domestic infrastructure investment has shown a year-on-year growth of 7.87%, particularly in the water management sector, which has grown by 32.60% [4]. - The electric loader market is witnessing a significant trend towards electrification, with a penetration rate exceeding 10% [4]. Policy Impact - A series of real estate financial policies are being implemented, which are expected to positively impact the construction machinery industry [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery and the establishment of overseas networks by domestic companies [5].

Industry Overview and Traditional White Goods - The home appliance industry has shown strong performance historically, with the Shenwan Home Appliance Index outperforming the CSI 300 Index, driven by urbanization and increased market concentration [5] - White goods, particularly air conditioners, have historically been a significant driver of the home appliance index, but diversification by leading companies and the rise of new product categories are expected to introduce more diverse factors influencing the index [5] - The industry is undergoing transformation, with reduced reliance on real estate cycles and increased focus on product upgrades, regional expansion, and mergers and acquisitions [7] - Domestic sales are driven by technological advancements and replacement demand, while overseas sales are supported by restocking demand and the potential of emerging markets [7] - Raw material prices and exchange rates significantly impact profitability, with fluctuations in copper prices historically affecting industry performance [7] - Leading companies in the sector exhibit strong cash flow and high dividend payouts, which are expected to continue [7] Cleaning Appliances - The cleaning appliance market, particularly robotic vacuum cleaners, is technology-driven, with significant growth potential due to low penetration rates in China compared to developed markets [15] - The introduction of "all-in-one base stations" has become a standard in the industry, offering premium features and driving up average selling prices despite a decline in sales volume [15] - The market has shifted from price competition to volume-driven strategies, with leading brands consolidating their market share [17] - Marketing competition has intensified, with brands increasing sales expenses and leveraging platforms like TikTok for better market penetration [19] - New product launches in 2024 focus on improving cost-performance ratios, with flagship products incorporating advanced features like mechanical arm edge cleaning and compact base stations [21] - Overseas, Chinese brands have gained traction in Europe and the US through cross-border e-commerce, with companies like Roborock leading in Amazon channels [23] Tools and Outdoor Power Equipment - The global tools market is expected to grow steadily, with a CAGR of 4.7% from 2023 to 2027, driven by stable replacement demand and recovery in key markets like North America [37] - The shift from corded to cordless (lithium-powered) tools is a significant trend, with the cordless market expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.9% from 2020 to 2025 [39] - Policies in the US, particularly in California, are promoting the transition to electric-powered outdoor tools, which could influence other regions [39] - Leading companies like TTI and Stanley Black & Decker dominate the market, with strong brand loyalty and established distribution channels [37] - Chinese brands are leveraging advancements in lithium battery technology to enter the global market, with companies like Greenworks and Chervon gaining recognition [39] - The lawn mower robot market is emerging as a growth area, with global sales expected to reach $2.3 billion by 2025, driven by advancements in navigation and obstacle avoidance technologies [45] Global Operations and Supply Chain - The tools industry has established a global supply chain network, with production concentrated in Asia and distribution focused on North America and Europe [47] - Companies are expanding overseas production bases to mitigate trade risks and reduce costs, with significant investments in Vietnam, Mexico, and the US [47] - The globalization of operations is expected to intensify industry consolidation, with leading companies like TTI and Great Star leveraging their global presence to maintain competitive advantages [48] - Cross-border e-commerce and independent websites have become important channels for Chinese brands to quickly gain market share, but long-term success will depend on deeper integration into global supply chains [48]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Bullish," expecting the CSI 300 index to rise by 20% or more within the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is expected to enhance the overall market sentiment and drive the non-bank financial sector's performance [7]. - The new combined entity is projected to achieve significant synergies, with total assets exceeding 1.6 trillion RMB and net assets surpassing 330 billion RMB, positioning it as a leader in the industry [8]. - The report anticipates an acceleration in M&A activities within the brokerage industry, driven by both business complementarity and state-owned capital integration [9]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities announced a merger plan on October 9, with a share exchange ratio of 1:0.62 and a fundraising target of up to 10 billion RMB [7]. - The merger includes a cash option for dissenting shareholders, with the maximum transaction price set at 14.86 RMB for Guotai Junan and 9.28 RMB for Haitong Securities, indicating a potential discount compared to market prices [7][10]. - The new entity's asset management business is expected to reach an AUM of 3.4 trillion RMB, with a client base of 280 million public fund investors [8]. Business Integration and Synergies - The merger is expected to create a "1+1>2" effect, enhancing capital utilization, service capabilities, and operational efficiency [8]. - The combined company will have the largest advisory team in the industry, improving asset research and pricing capabilities [8]. Market Outlook and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on M&A opportunities, high asset returns, and ROE improvements as key investment themes [9]. - It recommends investing in large brokerages with strong capital positions and stable operations to capitalize on upcoming market trends [9].

Inflation Data - In September, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.3% and down from the previous 2.5%[2] - The core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, above the expected 3.2% and unchanged from the previous month[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, while the core CPI rose by 0.3%[2] Market Implications - The persistent core inflation indicates ongoing risks, leading the market to price in at least one interest rate hold in November and December, which may impact US stock valuations[2] - The divergence between CPI and core CPI has widened, with CPI showing a declining trend for six consecutive months, while core CPI rebounded for the first time since March 2023[2] Energy Prices - Energy prices fell by 4.0% month-on-month, primarily driven by a 4.1% drop in gasoline prices and a 6.0% decrease in fuel prices[2] - Despite OPEC+ extending voluntary production cuts, demand forecasts were downgraded, resulting in a more than 5% decline in crude oil futures prices[2] Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices increased by 0.2%, marking a shift from a downward trend seen in six of the previous seven months[2] - Notably, used car prices rose by 0.3%, and clothing prices surged by 1.1%, continuing their upward trend for two consecutive months[2] Service Sector Resilience - Core services prices rose by 0.4%, with transportation services seeing a significant increase of 1.4%, marking three consecutive months of growth[3] - The service sector's strength is supported by a rebound in wages, which are a major cost component[3] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims rose to 258,000, the highest level since August 2023, but the impact on inflation expectations is considered limited due to external factors like hurricanes and strikes[3] - The rebound in core inflation reinforces expectations for gradual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[3] Risks - Potential fluctuations in Chinese export prices could impact US inflation rates[3] - Geopolitical risks remain a concern for market stability[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on upstream resources, oil services, and stable targets within the industry [96]. Core Insights - Oil prices are expected to remain relatively high, benefiting companies with upstream resource attributes such as China National Petroleum and CNOOC [96]. - The oil service industry is projected to maintain stable capital expenditures, with continued domestic exploration and production growth [96]. - The downstream textile and apparel industry is anticipated to experience a weak recovery in demand, with a focus on integrated refining and chemical companies [96]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review and Outlook - Brent crude oil fluctuated between $60 and $90 per barrel, with expectations of continued support from OPEC+ production cuts [11][4]. - The report predicts short-term oil price support at $65 per barrel, with long-term demand significantly influencing prices [4]. Commodity, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - Domestic bond rates are expected to remain stable, with potential appreciation of the RMB [96]. - The U.S. economy shows resilience, but manufacturing PMI remains weak, indicating ongoing inflation risks [96]. Polyester Industry Chain - The report highlights a decline in PTA and ethylene glycol prices, with the overall polyester chain profitability turning negative for the first time this year [65][69]. - The average inventory level for polyester filament yarn decreased slightly, indicating a potential recovery in supply-demand dynamics [75]. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong upstream resource attributes and stable capital expenditures in the oil service sector [96]. - Integrated refining and chemical companies are favored due to their cost advantages and market positioning [96].

Group 1 - The report highlights that a series of policy measures have significantly boosted market confidence, with expectations of sustained policy support in the future [3][22][23] - The report indicates that the global liquidity turning point has arrived, with major central banks, except for the Bank of Japan, entering a rate-cutting cycle, which alleviates currency constraints [3][26] - The report suggests that the profit growth rate may rebound in the fourth quarter, as the current low profit growth is expected to be a bottom, with potential fiscal policy support [3][22][23] Group 2 - In the consumer sector, the report notes that the food and beverage industry is showing resilience, with policies stimulating confidence and a recovery in sales expected during the upcoming holiday season [28][30] - The report anticipates that pig prices will remain stable in the fourth quarter, with improved performance expected in the livestock sector due to seasonal demand [31] - The report emphasizes the importance of the tourism sector, with domestic travel showing growth during the National Day holiday, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [32] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of the beverage industry, particularly the beer sector, which is expected to benefit from cost reductions and a recovery in consumption scenarios [28][30] - The report highlights the potential for the dairy industry to improve due to government policies aimed at stabilizing milk production and promoting consumption [30] - The report identifies investment opportunities in high-end liquor brands and regional leaders within the liquor sector, suggesting specific companies to watch [28][30]

Key Recommendations - The continuation of the third-generation refrigerant policy is expected to drive an upward trend in the refrigerant industry, with prices for R32, R125, and R134a increasing by 7.04%, 10.17%, and 1.52% respectively as of September 30, 2024 [7][8] - The 2025 refrigerant quota draft indicates an increase in R32 supply, suggesting that refrigerant prices will remain on an upward trajectory due to reduced social inventory and stable demand for R22 in the maintenance market [8] - The demand for refrigerants is supported by rising household air conditioning production, with production volumes for October to December 2024 projected to be 11.77 million, 13.31 million, and 14.91 million units respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 23.95%, 24.00%, and 9.70% [8] Oil and Gas Resource Research - The market capitalization of oil and gas companies is significantly influenced by oil reserves and production levels, with a regression model indicating that these factors are primary determinants of company value [10][11] - Global oil and gas upstream merger and acquisition activity is robust, with 201 transactions in 2023 valued at $233.5 billion, marking a 163% increase year-on-year and reaching historical highs [10] - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 and $90 per barrel for the year, with short-term support at $65 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production cuts and U.S. rig count declines [10][11] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to focus on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with comprehensive supply chains, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd., as well as raw material suppliers like Jinshi Resources [8] - For the oil and gas sector, attention should be given to state-owned enterprises like China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which possess strong resource reserves and refining capacities, despite lower ROE compared to international peers [11]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 一、成本端：原材料价格反弹，成本面支撑较强 二、生产端：产量总体维稳，全钢胎产能利用率小幅抬升 11 i 需求端：当前终端需求偏弱，四季度存向好预期 四、行业重要新闻 五、月度总结及展望 六、风险提示 最 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明 3 9 ● 9月轮胎上游原材料价格：2024年9月丁二烯均价13116.30元/吨，环比上涨5.93%，同比上涨57.15%；天然橡胶均价 1951.67美元/吨，环比上涨9.39%，同比上涨31.43%；丁苯橡胶均价15966.30元/吨，环比上涨7.07%，同比上涨 20.28%；炭黑均价8236.67元/吨，环比上涨6.59%，同比减少15.87%；锦纶帘子布均价21937.50元/吨，环比减少 1.40%，同比减少0.62%。 轮胎主要原材 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing significant events as the reason for this rating [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that Changan Automobile's wholesale sales in September 2024 reached 213,200 units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 9.98% but a year-on-year increase of 13.93%. Cumulative wholesale sales for the first nine months of 2024 totaled 1.905 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.89% [6]. - The report notes a recovery in exports, with overseas sales of the company's self-owned brands in September 2024 reaching 30,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 65.51% [6]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the company's new energy vehicles, with September sales reaching 54,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 45.96% [7]. - The report projects that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will be 8.740 billion, 10.896 billion, and 13.513 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.88, 1.10, and 1.36 yuan [8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September 2024, Changan's wholesale sales were 213,200 units, with a cumulative total of 1.905 million units for the first nine months, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.89% [6]. - The company's self-owned brand sales in September were 129,300 units, with cumulative sales of 1.161 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.51% [6]. Export and International Sales - The report indicates that the company's overseas sales of self-owned brands in September 2024 were 30,600 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 65.51% [6]. - The report also notes that overseas sales accounted for 18.16% of total self-owned brand sales [6]. New Energy Vehicles - The report states that the company's new energy vehicle sales reached 54,400 units in September 2024, with a cumulative total of 447,600 units for the first nine months, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.96% [7]. - The report highlights the launch of new models under the Deep Blue and Avita brands, which are expected to drive sales growth [7]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 8.740 billion, 10.896 billion, and 13.513 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.88, 1.10, and 1.36 yuan [8]. - The report also provides a valuation outlook, with PE ratios projected at 16, 12, and 10 times for the respective years [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the traditional coal chemical industry Core Viewpoints - The traditional coal chemical industry is characterized by the conversion of coal into gas, liquid, and solid products, which are further processed into chemical and energy products, emphasizing comprehensive utilization of coal [3] - The main products of the traditional coal chemical industry include synthetic ammonia (urea), coke, and calcium carbide, with significant roles in agriculture, steel production, and general plastics [3][47] - The report highlights the importance of synthetic ammonia and urea in agricultural applications, noting that urea accounts for over 60% of nitrogen fertilizer production in China [17][20] - The report indicates a stable increase in agricultural demand for urea, driven by rising grain prices and supportive agricultural policies [20] Summary by Sections Traditional Coal Chemical Industry Overview - The coal chemical industry is divided into traditional and modern sectors, with traditional products primarily including synthetic ammonia, coke, and calcium carbide [3] - The industry plays a crucial role in addressing fertilizer needs, supporting heavy industries, and providing low-cost plastic sources [3] Synthetic Ammonia - Urea - Synthetic ammonia production is primarily driven by agricultural demand, with 70% of its consumption used for fertilizers [14] - Urea consumption in China has surpassed 50 million tons recently, supported by favorable agricultural policies [17] - The report anticipates continued growth in agricultural urea demand due to stable planting areas and rising grain prices [20] Coke - Coke is essential for steel production, with 88% of its consumption used in metallurgical processes [47] - The report notes a significant correlation between steel prices and coke demand, indicating that economic conditions heavily influence the industry [49] - The domestic coke market has seen a reduction in imports and a slight decrease in exports, reflecting changing demand dynamics [51] Calcium Carbide - Calcium carbide is primarily used in producing acetylene and downstream chemical products, with PVC being a major application [71] - The report highlights the expected increase in demand for calcium carbide driven by the expansion of BDO production, although actual demand will depend on downstream market conditions [75] - The competition from ethylene-based production methods is noted as a potential challenge for calcium carbide-derived products [82]