晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月09日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241009 [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.重视高涨情绪下增量资金入市推动的非银板块持续行情——非银金融行业周报 （20240930-20241006） ➢ 2."金九银十"新能源汽车如期热销，爆款车型集中提产加速交付——汽车行业周报 （2024/09/30-2024/10/06） ➢ 3.油气资源储备对油气上市公司市值影响的研究——原油研究系列（二十） 财经要闻 ➢ 1.国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"系统落实一揽子增量政策 扎实推动经济向上结构向优、 发展态势持续向好"有关情况。 ➢ 2.国庆旅游消费表现较好。 ➢ 3.国务院总理李强主持国务院第十次专题学习。 ➢ 4.国务院总理李强主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会。 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 联系人： 赵敏敏 zmmin@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WW ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - Domestic tourism during the National Day holiday saw a total of 765 million trips, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a 10.2% increase compared to 2019. The total tourism revenue reached 700.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% and a 7.9% increase from 2019 [6]. - The average per capita spending for domestic travel was 916 yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4% [6]. - The overall cross-regional mobility during the holiday reached 2.003 billion trips, averaging 286 million trips per day, which is a 3.9% increase compared to 2023 and a 23.1% increase compared to 2019 [6]. - The report highlights a significant rise in hotel bookings in nearly 100 county-level cities, with an increase of over 50% year-on-year [6]. - Young consumers, particularly those born after 2000, have become the main force in travel, accounting for nearly 20% of orders, surpassing older generations [6]. - The report suggests that the tourism industry is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting consumption, with a focus on sectors such as OTA, scenic spots, and hotels [7]. Summary by Sections Travel Data - The National Day holiday saw 765 million domestic trips, with tourism revenue at 700.82 billion yuan, reflecting growth compared to previous years [6]. - Daily average cross-regional mobility was 286 million trips, showing significant increases from both 2023 and 2019 [6]. OTA and Consumer Trends - There is a notable increase in hotel bookings in county-level cities, and younger consumers are leading the travel market [6]. - The average travel radius has decreased, indicating a trend towards slower-paced travel experiences [6]. Scenic Spots and Box Office - Major scenic spots reported significant increases in visitor numbers compared to previous years, with some locations seeing over 80% growth [7]. - The box office for the National Day holiday was 2.104 billion yuan, with domestic films accounting for nearly 96% of the total [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors that are likely to benefit from the anticipated increase in consumer spending, particularly in tourism-related industries [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the refrigerant industry, suggesting a high level of market activity and profitability for related companies in the coming years [3][89]. Core Insights - As of September 30, 2024, the prices of third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a have increased by 7.04%, 10.17%, and 1.52% respectively compared to the end of August, indicating a rising trend in refrigerant prices [3][7]. - The 2025 refrigerant quota draft has been released, which will increase the supply of R32, suggesting that refrigerant prices will continue to rise in the long term [3][86]. - The demand for refrigerants is supported by the increasing production of household air conditioners, with production expected to reach 11.77 million units in October 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.95% [3][55]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with a complete industrial chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd. [3][89]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - The price of R22 has remained stable at 30,000 yuan/ton, with a significant increase of 53.85% since the beginning of 2024 [3][22]. - The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants are being reduced, which is expected to drive up prices [3][86]. 2. Refrigerant Tracking - The production rates for R32, R134a, and R125 have shown a decline in September 2024, with respective production rates of 44.14%, 43.67%, and 35.54% [14][33]. - The total inventory of R32, R134a, and R125 has decreased significantly since December 2023, indicating a tightening supply [16][38]. 3. Fluoropolymer Insights - Prices for fluoropolymers such as PTFE, PVDF, and HFP remain low due to rapid capacity increases and slowing demand growth [3][63]. - The production and inventory levels of fluoropolymers have remained stable, with slight fluctuations in output [75][79]. 4. Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has published a draft for the 2025 quota for ozone-depleting substances, which includes significant reductions in production quotas for certain refrigerants [86][88]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the refrigerant industry will maintain a high level of activity and profitability, particularly for companies that are leaders in the sector [89].

Investment Rating - The automotive sector is rated positively with an overall increase of 8.89% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index which rose by 8.48% [6][14]. Core Insights - The new energy vehicle (NEV) market saw record sales in September, with brands like BYD, Li Auto, and Leap Motor achieving significant year-on-year growth [6][12]. - BYD's sales reached 417,600 units in September, marking a 46% increase year-on-year, while Li Auto and Leap Motor reported increases of 49% and 114% respectively [12][23]. - The automotive parts sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing technological upgrades and partnerships with quality car manufacturers [7][12]. Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance this week included a rise in various sub-sectors: passenger vehicles increased by 8.76%, commercial vehicles by 8.82%, and automotive parts by 10.87% [6][14]. - The NEV sales data for September showed significant growth across multiple brands, with BYD leading the market [12][23]. Industry Data Tracking - NEV sales in September included 417,600 units for BYD, 53,700 for Li Auto, and 33,800 for Leap Motor, reflecting strong demand during the peak season [12][23][27]. - The dealer inventory warning index for September was reported at 54.0%, indicating a slight decrease in inventory levels compared to previous months [34]. New Model Tracking - New models launched this week include the BYD Tengshi Z9 GT and various models from Changan and Geely, indicating a robust pipeline of new products in the market [41].

行 业 研 究 非 银 金 融 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月08日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -28% -18% -9% 1% 10% 20% 29% 23-10 24-01 24-04 24-07 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.券商风控指标修订落地，新"国十 条"指明保险高质量发展方向——非 银 金 融 行 业 周 报 （ 20240916- 20240922） 2.航母级券商蓄势启航，预定利率分 阶段下调启动——非银金融行业周 报（20240902-20240908） 3.从国君合并海通，看头部整合示范 效应下的航母级券商启航——非银 金融行业简评 ➢ 保险：资产端弹性显著催化板块行情，关注资负同步改善下的可持续性配置机遇。1）资 产端来看，10Y国债收益率于9月30日收至2.15%，较近期低位上升11bps，最高点较低位 提升21bps（9月29日为2.25%），一定程 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - During the holiday period, "Chinese assets" continued to strengthen, with the FTSE China A50 futures and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rising by 14.34% and 10.20% respectively[3] - The US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.22%, 0.10%, and 0.09% respectively[3] - The 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 3.98%, an increase of 23 basis points during the holiday[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The official PMI for September showed a manufacturing PMI of 49.8%, up from 49.1%, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.0%, down from 50.3%[4] - The US added 254,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding expectations of 140,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%[4] - The average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%[4] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - During the holiday, a total of 1.464 billion people traveled, a year-on-year increase of 2.78%[6] - Domestic and outbound flight prices dropped by over 20% compared to the previous year, enhancing travel affordability[6] - Box office revenue for the first four days of the holiday reached 1.451 billion yuan, with a daily average of 363 million yuan, reflecting a 6.3% increase year-on-year[6] Group 4: Real Estate Market - In the period from September 27 to October 3, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.87 million square meters, with first-tier cities showing a significant improvement of 38.8%[6] - New policies in Beijing aimed at reducing down payment ratios and relaxing purchase restrictions are expected to further stimulate the real estate market[6]

Key Recommendations - During the National Day holiday, "Chinese assets" continued to strengthen, with significant gains in overseas indices such as the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, FTSE A50 futures, and the Hang Seng Index [6] - The September PMI was weaker than seasonal trends, but policy measures are expected to boost the market and future economic growth [7] - A study on the impact of oil and gas reserves on the market value of oil and gas companies highlights that reserves and production levels are key factors influencing market value [13] Economic News - The central bank net purchased 200 billion yuan of government bonds in September [2] - Beijing introduced 8 new real estate policies, including lowering down payment ratios and relaxing purchase restrictions [2] - Japan's new Prime Minister stated that further interest rate hikes are not suitable at the moment [2] - The US September manufacturing PMI was below expectations, while the non-manufacturing PMI significantly exceeded expectations [2] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that if economic data remains consistent, there could be two more rate cuts this year [2] Market Performance - During the holiday period, the FTSE China A50 futures and Hong Kong stocks performed exceptionally well, rising by 14.34% and 10.20% respectively [7] - US stock indices initially fell but later rose, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.22%, 0.10%, and 0.09% respectively [7] - European stock markets were relatively weak, with the UK's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX, and France's CAC indices falling by 0.48%, 1.81%, and 3.21% respectively [7] - Crude oil prices surged due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent and WTI crude rising by 9.10% and 9.09% respectively [7] PMI Analysis - The September manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, up from 49.1% in August, indicating a recovery in supply and demand for mid- and downstream manufacturing [11] - The new orders index improved but remained below the 50% threshold, suggesting weak overall demand [11] - The production index rose to 51.2%, indicating a return to expansion territory [12] - The new export orders index fell to 47.5%, the lowest since February, reflecting weak external demand [12] Oil and Gas Sector - Oil and gas reserves and production levels are the main factors affecting the market value of oil and gas companies [13] - Global upstream oil and gas M&A activity has increased, with transaction amounts reaching $233.5 billion in 2023, a 163% year-on-year increase [14] - Short-term oil prices are expected to remain supported around $65/barrel, with Brent crude projected to fluctuate between $60-90/barrel for the year [14] A Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index surged by 8.06% on the last trading day before the holiday, closing at 3336 points [18] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 10.67% and 15.36% respectively, with both indices breaking through their daily moving average systems [19] - The securities sector saw a significant inflow of large single-day funds, with over 4.82 billion yuan net inflow, indicating strong market interest [19]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on oil and gas companies with good resource reserves and refining capacity, particularly China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, due to their competitive positioning in the international market [6][7]. Core Insights - The performance of oil and gas companies is significantly influenced by oil prices, which are volatile. The market capitalization of these companies is affected not only by traditional valuation metrics like PB-ROE and PE but also by oil and gas resource reserves [6][12]. - Oil and gas reserve levels and crude oil production are the primary factors impacting the market capitalization of oil and gas companies. The report indicates that for integrated oil and gas companies, the model fit is relatively good, but some key coefficients do not show significant statistical significance [6][22]. - Global upstream oil and gas transactions have become increasingly active, with 201 transactions in 2023, a 7.37% increase year-on-year, and a total transaction value of $233.5 billion, marking a 163% increase from the previous year [6][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Relationship Between Oil and Gas Company Market Value and Assets - The report explores the relationship between the market value of oil and gas companies and their assets, emphasizing the importance of resource reserves and production levels [12][22]. - A regression model was used to analyze the impact of various factors, including oil reserves, production, and financial metrics, on market capitalization [12][16]. 2. Structural Restructuring of the Global Oil and Gas Industry - The report notes a cautious approach to upstream capital expenditure among major international oil companies, with a significant decline observed since 2013 [23]. - A new wave of mergers and acquisitions is reshaping the global oil industry, with notable large-scale transactions occurring in 2023 [24][28]. 3. Crude Oil Price Trends - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range, with Brent crude expected to average between $60 and $90 per barrel for the year [7][31]. - The global oil supply-demand dynamics remain tight, with projections for increased supply from non-OPEC+ countries in the coming years [31]. 4. Valuation Comparisons of Major Oil and Gas Companies - The report highlights that major Chinese oil companies have competitive resource reserves and refining capacities compared to international peers, although their ROE and PB ratios are lower than the average of the top seven international oil companies [7][8]. - The report suggests that the valuation of Chinese oil companies is relatively low when compared to their international counterparts, despite their strong resource positions [7][8]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned oil companies with good resource reserves, refining capacity, and effective cost control, specifically mentioning China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the photovoltaic and wind power sectors, with specific recommendations for companies like 帝科股份 and 大金重工 [9][19]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing price stabilization in silicon materials, while silicon wafer production is expected to increase. However, the overall price trend remains dependent on downstream demand [9][15]. - The wind power sector is seeing a recovery in turbine prices and an acceleration in offshore wind project construction, with significant growth in new installations anticipated for 2024 [10][17]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - Silicon material prices are stable, with a projected supply increase of approximately 4% this month. However, downstream silicon wafer operating rates have decreased, leading to a 13% reduction in demand for polysilicon [9][15]. - Silicon wafer production in September was 44.31 GW, a 15.76% decrease month-over-month, primarily due to reductions from leading manufacturers [9][15]. - Battery cell prices are declining, with current inventories at specialized battery manufacturers remaining high. Production is expected to decrease in October due to holiday schedules [9][15]. - Module prices are also falling, with recent bidding prices dropping below 0.7 RMB per watt, indicating aggressive price competition among manufacturers [9][15]. Wind Power Sector - The report notes that land-based wind turbine bidding has increased, with an average bid price of approximately 1919.13 RMB per kW, indicating a stabilization in pricing [10][17]. - Offshore wind projects are progressing, with significant developments in various provinces, suggesting a potential acceleration in domestic offshore wind construction [10][11]. - The report highlights that the demand for offshore wind products is expected to grow, supported by successful overseas project deliveries [11][19]. - The overall outlook for the wind power sector remains optimistic, with a projected increase in new installations for 2024, potentially reaching 88.21 GW [18].

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In September 2024, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.8%, up from 49.1% in August, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.0%, down from 50.3%[2] - The manufacturing PMI remains below the seasonal average of 50.2% over the past five years, indicating ongoing economic challenges[2] - The production index for September was 51.2%, reflecting a 1.4 percentage point increase month-on-month, indicating a return to expansion territory[2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The new orders index increased to 49.9%, up 1.0 percentage point from August, but still below the expansion threshold[2] - New export orders fell by 1.2 percentage points to 47.5%, the lowest level since February, indicating potential challenges in global demand[2] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0%, a 1.3 percentage point increase, while the equipment manufacturing PMI was at 52.0%, up 0.8 percentage points, showing positive momentum in new sectors[2] Group 3: Price and Cost Trends - The price index showed a slight increase within the contraction range, indicating reduced downward pressure on prices, although PPI is expected to remain under pressure[3] - The service sector business activity index fell to 49.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions[3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 50.7%, with a business activity expectation index at 53.1%, indicating positive sentiment in the construction industry[3] - Risks include potential declines in overseas demand and the possibility that growth-stimulating policies may not be implemented as expected[3]