（分析师：刘嘉玮 执业编码：S1480519050001 电话：010-66554043） 【东兴银行】银行行业：社融同比少增，信贷需求仍较弱——2 月社融金融数据点评（20240318） 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 投资建议：建议布局高成长优质区域小行和高股息稳健国有大行。展望 2024 年，从资本补充、资产负债表健 康性与可持续信用扩张角度看，行业息差收窄压力或逐步缩小。尽管当前有效融资需求仍然偏弱，但在提振实 体经济的各项政策协同加码之下，行业仍可延续以量补价稳健经营。行业盈利增速和盈利水平有望维持平稳。 而当前上市行整体估值仍处历史低位，安全边际较高。量、价、质任一方面的边际积极变化均有望带来估值提 升机会。结合当前市场环境、个股估值和盈利水平，我们建议布局高股息稳健国有大行和高成长优质区域小行。 行业销售：新房销售继续下行。从数据来看，26 城商品房年内累计销售面积（1.1~3.17）同比增速为-31.95%， 对应前值（1.1~3.10）为-30.33%。其中一线城市(4 城)年内累计销售面积（1.1~3.17）同比增速为-32.14%， 对应前值（1.1~3.10）为-30 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai, with a target price of 2101 CNY, reflecting a valuation of 30 times earnings [24]. Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai achieved a revenue of 150.56 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.04%, and a net profit of 74.73 billion CNY, up 19.16% year-on-year [8]. - The company’s direct sales revenue reached 67.23 billion CNY in 2023, with a direct sales ratio of 45.52%, an increase of 5.37 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of the i Moutai platform [2][8]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of approximately 15% for 2024, supported by price adjustments and continued growth in non-standard products and direct sales channels [24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Moutai liquor generated 126.59 billion CNY in revenue, a 17.39% increase, with sales volume reaching 42,100 tons, up 11.1% year-on-year [8]. - The gross profit margin for the company was 91.96% in 2023, with a slight increase from the previous year [24]. Sales Channels - The i Moutai platform contributed significantly to the revenue growth, achieving 22.37 billion CNY in 2023, a remarkable 88.29% increase year-on-year [2]. Future Projections - The report projects that Guizhou Moutai will achieve a revenue of 173.29 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit of 87.98 billion CNY, corresponding to an EPS of 70.04 CNY [12][24].

东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 盈利端稳定性强。我们预计 2024 年国有大行利润增速有望维持平稳。（1）国 有大行在逆周期调节要求下，将继续发挥头雁作用，维持贷款增速较快增长。 （2）尽管资产端收益率预计进一步下行，但随着负债端政策红利持续释放， 息差收窄压力将得以缓释，有望以量补价支撑营收平稳增长。（3）考虑地方 化债积极推进、地产信用风险在以时间换空间的方式稳步出清，预计大行资 产质量平稳运行，拨备抵补能力充足，可抵补支撑盈利平稳增长。（4）从资 本角度看，在 G-SIBs 和 TLAC 达标要求，以及 RWA 较快增长的背景下，国 有大行保持净利润增长和内生资本稳定补充的必要性上升。 后市展望：多因素支撑下，估值修复可期。当前银行板块估值仍处于历史底 部，与稳健盈利水平、资产质量不匹配。2023 年以来，在中特估、维稳市场 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------|-------|-------|----------|----------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 名称 | | | 价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][2]. Core Insights - Despite a decline in revenue due to weak demand, the company's net profit increased by 10.40% year-on-year, reaching 1.432 billion yuan in 2023 [2]. - The company's market share increased by 3 percentage points during a downturn in the plastic pipe industry, indicating resilience and effective market expansion strategies [2]. - The company has a strong cash position with 3.174 billion yuan in cash, allowing for increased dividends and acquisitions, with a dividend proposal of 8 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.258 billion yuan, a 31.73% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 6.378 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.27% year-on-year, while the gross margin improved to 44.32%, up 4.56 percentage points from the previous year [2][7]. - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is 1.495 billion yuan, 1.637 billion yuan, and 1.833 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.03, and 1.15 yuan [3][7]. - The company's PE ratios for the next three years are projected to be 17.53, 16.01, and 14.30, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [3][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company ranks 5th in brand strength and value within the construction materials industry, having improved its position by 2 places from the previous year [3]. - The marketing network has expanded, with over 50 sales companies established in 2023, up from 40 in 2022, and an increase in specialized marketing personnel to over 1,900 [3]. - The company has contributed to over 230 national and industry standards and holds 1,600 patents, reflecting its commitment to innovation and industry leadership [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Shenhua [2][9] Core Views - The company is expected to continue high cash dividends, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.26 CNY per share, totaling 44.903 billion CNY, which represents 75.2% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, a 2.4 percentage point increase year-on-year [9] - The coal and power joint operation model is deepening, with significant growth in coal production and sales, and an expected increase in capacity from new projects [9] - The company’s net profit for 2023 was 59.694 billion CNY, a decrease of 14.3% year-on-year, while the average coal sales price fell by 9.3% to 584 CNY per ton [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 343.074 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 59.694 billion CNY, down 14.3% [2][10] - The average net asset return rate was 14.6%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [10] Coal Division - The average coal sales price (excluding tax) was 584 CNY per ton, down 9.3% year-on-year, while coal sales volume increased by 7.7% to 450 million tons [3] - The coal division's revenue was 273.306 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, primarily due to falling sales prices and rising production costs [3] Power Generation Division - Total power generation increased by 11.0% to 212.26 billion kWh, with sales volume rising by 11.1% to 199.75 billion kWh [3] - The revenue from the power generation division was 92.407 billion CNY, up 9.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 16.9%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points [3] Transportation and Coal Chemical Divisions - The transportation division saw a revenue increase of 1.8% to 42.961 billion CNY, while the coal chemical division's revenue decreased by 4.4% to 6.098 billion CNY [4] - The transportation division's operating costs rose by 9.5%, impacting the gross margin across all business segments [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to invest 11 billion CNY in new coal mining projects, with an expected production capacity of 16 million tons per year [9] - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to reach 60.316 billion CNY, 60.659 billion CNY, and 64.075 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.04 CNY, 3.05 CNY, and 3.22 CNY [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for CNOOC Services (601808.SH) [6] Core Views - CNOOC Services reported a revenue of RMB 44.109 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.013 billion, up 27.75% year-on-year [1][2] - The drilling services segment is recovering due to increased upstream capital expenditures, with a projected increase in performance [1][2] - The oilfield technical services segment, which accounted for 58.4% of total revenue in 2023, saw a revenue increase of RMB 25.6 billion, a growth of 31.4% year-on-year [1][2] Summary by Sections Drilling Services - The drilling services segment is experiencing recovery driven by upstream capital expenditures, with a significant increase in operational days to 17,726, up 6.0% year-on-year [1] - Revenue from drilling services reached RMB 12.07 billion, reflecting a growth of 16.6% [1][2] Oilfield Technical Services - This segment is the largest revenue contributor, achieving RMB 25.76 billion in 2023, an increase of RMB 6.16 billion year-on-year [1][2] - The company has made significant investments in technology R&D, leading to innovations recognized in the industry [1] Ship Services and Geophysical Exploration - Ship services generated RMB 3.94 billion in revenue, a 5.9% increase from RMB 3.73 billion in 2022 [2] - Geophysical exploration and engineering services reported revenue of RMB 2.34 billion, up 17.7% from RMB 1.99 billion in 2022 [2] Profitability - The company's net profit for 2023 was RMB 3.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.35% [2] - The return on equity (ROE) improved to 7.2%, up 21.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 16.0%, reflecting a 29.4% increase [2] Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is RMB 3.89 billion, RMB 4.61 billion, and RMB 5.56 billion respectively [2][7]

宏 观 研 究 2024 年 4 月 10 日 宏观经济 事件点评 分析师 康明怡 电话：021-25102911 邮箱：kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480519090001 降息仍由通胀主导，年内降息概率略有下 降 ——美国 3 月非农数据点评 事件： 美国 3 月季调后非农就业增 30.3 万，预期 21.4 万，前值 27.5 万；失业率 3.8%，预期 3.8%，前值 3.9%。 主要观点： 1、 就业紧绷程度进一步下降，非常接近疫情前的高位，二季度非农总量无忧。 2、 就业主力医疗和政府为非周期性行业，扣除后非农环比新增较为低迷。 3、 美联储降息的诉求是在经济不出现衰退的前提下，政策利率能够匹配回落的通胀水平，即从限制性区域回落至略微限制 ~中性利率的区间，因此降息仍由通胀主导。 4、 降息最佳窗口为 5 月至三季度中期，但 5 月几无可能，降息窗口很窄，降息幅度进一步下降，由 50bp 降至 50~25bp。 5、 维持美国十年期国债利率下限 3.65~3.85%，上限 4.35~4.6%；美股维持短期没有明显风险点，长期中性。 就业紧绷程度进一步下降，二季度非农总量 ...

公 司 研 究 分析师：曹奕丰 021-25102904 caoyf_yjs@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号： S1480519050005 北京首都机场股份（00694.HK）：成本 管控到位，收入端有待国际客运恢复 事件：2023 年公司实现营收 45.59 亿元，同比增长 104.3%，其中航空性收入 20.97 亿元，同比增长 195.0%，非航收入 24.62 亿元，同比增长 61.9%。公 司税后净亏损为 16.97 亿元，较去年同期的 35.27 亿元减少 51.9%。 吞吐量回升带动航空与非航收入增长：23 年公司旅客吞吐量为 5288 万人次， 相当于 19 年同期的 53.0%，其中国内航线（不含港澳台）4520 万人次，同比 增长 269.0%，相当于 19 年同期的 62.7%，国际航线 618 万人次，同比增长 2359.6%，相当于 19 年同期的 25.8%。考虑到大兴机场的分流影响，我们认 为首都机场的国内旅客吞吐量已经得到了较好的恢复，后续增速会明显放缓。 今年 1-2 月，首都机场国际旅客量分别相当于 19 年同期的 43.4%和 49.5%， 因此预计今年国际吞吐量 ...

Company Overview - The report focuses on **China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)** (600938 SH), a Hong Kong-based investment holding company established on August 20, 1999, primarily engaged in oil and gas exploration, production, and trade [5] - CNOOC operates in markets including China, Canada, the UK, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Brazil, with its business segments covering conventional oil and gas, shale oil and gas, oil sands, and other unconventional oil and gas activities [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, CNOOC achieved **RMB 4160 09 billion** in revenue, a **1 33% YoY decline**, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of **RMB 1238 43 billion**, down **12 60% YoY** [5] - Despite a **19 29% YoY decline** in Brent crude oil prices to **USD 82 56 per barrel**, CNOOC's cost control was strong, with its main oil cost per barrel decreasing by **5 13%** to **USD 28 83** [5] - The company's oil and gas production reached a **5-year high** at **678 0 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE)**, exceeding its initial target of **650-660 million BOE** and marking an **8 65% YoY increase** [5] Future Outlook - CNOOC plans to increase its oil and gas production to **700-720**, **780-800**, and **810-830 million BOE** in 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of **4 72%**, **11 27%**, and **3 80%**, respectively [5] - The company's capital expenditure in 2023 rose **27 46% YoY** to **RMB 1279 13 billion**, with a projected range of **RMB 1250-1350 billion** for 2024 to support further production growth [5] - CNOOC expects to launch several new projects in 2024, including the **Bozhong 19-2 oilfield development project**, **Deep Sea No 1 Phase II project**, and **Brazil's Mero3 project**, enhancing its growth potential [5] Dividend Policy - In 2023, CNOOC distributed **RMB 53 934 billion** in cash dividends, with a dividend payout ratio of **44%** [5] - The company's A-share dividend yield was **5 44%**, while its H-share dividend yield reached **9 62%** [5] - Since its listing in April 2022, CNOOC has paid cash dividends **3 times**, totaling **RMB 80 745 billion**, with a cumulative dividend payout ratio of **32 78%** and a total return ratio (including share repurchases) of **80 44%** [5] Valuation and Investment Rating - The report forecasts CNOOC's revenue for 2024-2026 to be **RMB 4349 88 billion**, **RMB 4612 20 billion**, and **RMB 4876 00 billion**, respectively, with net profits of **RMB 1312 10 billion**, **RMB 1478 85 billion**, and **RMB 1554 54 billion** [12] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at **RMB 2 76**, **RMB 3 11**, and **RMB 3 27**, with corresponding PE ratios of **10 85x**, **9 62x**, and **9 16x** [12] - The report upgrades CNOOC's rating to **"Strongly Recommend"** based on its strong cost control, stable earnings, and growth potential [20] Industry Context - The oil and gas industry is influenced by global economic trends, with **Brent crude oil prices** averaging **USD 82 56 per barrel** in 2023, down **19 29% YoY** [5] - CNOOC's performance in 2023 was resilient, with its profit decline being less severe than the drop in oil prices, highlighting its operational efficiency and cost management [5]

东 兴 晨 报 核心观点：我们认为国有行盈利端具有较强稳定性；高股息稳健分红，在利 率中枢下行背景下，配置价值凸显；机构低仓位、维稳市场资金增持预期强； 中央金融工作会议明确定调"支持国有大型金融机构做优做强"。多重利好因 素将对国有行估值修复形成持续支撑。 高股息吸引力强。从资产配置角度来看，在当前低增速、低通胀、低利率的 宏观环境下，防御高股息投资价值上升。当前银行板块股息率为 5.29%，处 于历史相对高位，成为高股息策略的较好选择。其中，国有大行平均股息率 达 5.35%，较 10 年期国债收益率溢价超 300BP。在利率中枢下行背景下，稳 定高股息的国有大行配置价值凸显（复盘 2008 年以来，在 10 年期国债收益 率下行期，国有大行相较沪深 300 均获得相对正收益）。同时，国有大行分红 稳定性强，部分银行已将最低分红率要求写入公司章程。近五年国有大行分 红比例稳定在 30%，分红收益有保障。 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------|-------|-------|--- ...