Market Insights 市场洞察 GS TMT TODAY 5.27.25 ⾼盛科技媒体 电信今⽇简报 2025 年 5 ⽉ 27 ⽇ Futures bid solidly across the board (NDX +150ps / SPX +140bps / RTY +160bps) with Treasuries rallying (10yr rate back below 4.50% / 30yr rate below 5%) after Japan signaled changes to its debt sale plans, fueling speculation that demand for US bonds could rise. Additionally, Trump is delaying his 50% EU tariffs from June 1st to July 9th after a phone call with EU Commission President Von Der Leyen (Trump said it was a "good" call). In ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the spirits industry or specific companies within it Core Insights - The spirits industry is currently experiencing a transition period, with companies focusing on stability, channel profits, and product quality rather than aggressive growth targets [3] - There is a noted weak trend in consumption around the Dragon Boat Festival, with only Moutai showing a slight increase in prepayment compared to the previous year [1][6] - Companies are increasingly targeting younger consumers and expanding their brand rejuvenation efforts to capture this demographic [3] Summary by Company Moutai - Moutai has introduced new promotional policies for residential and wedding banquets to stimulate demand, including cash rebates and complimentary honeymoon trips for larger events [13] - The wholesale price of original case Feitian Moutai decreased from Rmb2,165 to Rmb2,125, while unpacked Feitian Moutai's price fell from Rmb2,080 to Rmb2,060 [2][22] Wuliangye - Wuliangye's wholesale price remained stable at Rmb950, with prepayment rates in the first quarter of 2025 reported at 40%-50% [6][22] Guojiao 1573 - Guojiao 1573's wholesale price decreased from Rmb860 to Rmb855, with prepayment rates around 40%-45% [6][22] Yanghe - Yanghe reported a prepayment rate of approximately 45% and is focusing on expanding its sales network [6][8] Gujing - Gujing aims for nationwide expansion and a focus on sub-premium strategies, with a sales network covering over 70% of regions nationwide [7][8] Yingjia - Yingjia targets total sales of Rmb7.6 billion for 2025, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year increase, and plans to improve dividend payout ratios [11][13] Market Trends - The retail sales of liquor and tobacco in China grew by 5.1% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in the market [13] - Spirits companies are focusing on improving retail sell-through, inventory destocking, and channel expansion amid industry-wide growth deceleration [13]

27 May 2025 | 9:28AM CST China Property Weekly Wrap Week 21 Wrap - Transaction and sentiment stable; export-focused cities extended outperformance Key highlights for the week: Our tariff impact assessment (Exhibit 1 to Exhibit 4, more details on methodology) shows export-reliant cities outperformed broadly over the latest week: 1) transaction: the most export-reliant cities outperformed in both primary/secondary (+9%/+3% wow in aggregated volume vs. +4%/+2% for remaining cities); 2) secondary visitor traffi ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating to YJ Semitech [1][9][12] Core Insights - The primary driver for YJ Semitech's growth in 2025 is the ramp-up of Continuous Wave (CW) laser shipments, supported by strong demand from key customers in silicon photonics transceivers [2][9] - The company is experiencing supply tightness in both CW lasers and Electro-Absorption Modulated Lasers (EML), prompting plans for capacity expansion to meet customer demand [2][9] - YJ Semitech aims to reach a production capacity of low tens of millions of units per year by 2026, positioning itself for future trends in the industry [2][9] Summary by Sections CW Laser Ramp Outlook - Management maintains a positive outlook for CW laser shipments, driven by strong demand from key customers [2] - The company is expanding output capacity through additional equipment and improved yield levels [2] - The capacity expansion is intended to capture near-term opportunities and future trends in the industry [2] Competitive Barriers - The key competitive barrier is not just product performance but also includes product quality, reliability, delivery capability, and capacity scale [3] - Once a supplier establishes a solid track record, customers are unlikely to switch suppliers easily [3] Margins and Pricing Comparison - YJ Semitech's CW laser pricing is slightly below that of global peers [4] - The gross margin for the datacom segment is projected at 71% in 2024, primarily driven by customized products [4] 100G EML Outlook - The company's 100G EML products have passed customer qualifications but are not yet in mass production due to prioritization of CW laser production [7] - As capacity increases, there will be more room for EML production, aiding in ramp progress [7] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb252 million in 2024 to Rmb460 million in 2025, and further to Rmb665 million in 2026 [8] - The net income is expected to rise from Rmb161 million in 2025 to Rmb284 million in 2026 [8] - The report sets a 12-month price target of Rmb100 based on a 30x 2026E P/E ratio, indicating a downside potential of 21.9% from the current price of Rmb128.04 [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for BYD Co. with a 12-month price target of Rmb424 for A shares and HK$416 for H shares, indicating an upside potential of 11.3% for A shares and a downside of 2.2% for H shares [11][12]. Core Insights - The impact of BYD's "618" promotions on its sales may be less severe than initially feared, as the price reductions include existing government and OEM trade-in subsidies [2][3]. - The promotion affects 12 models with an average price reduction of Rmb10k, translating to a 9% discount, which could lead to an estimated Rmb2.6 billion impact on BYD's top line, equating to 5% of the projected net profit for 2025 [3][4]. - If competitors follow suit with similar pricing strategies, the potential impact on BYD could escalate to Rmb12.4 billion [4]. Summary by Sections Promotion Impact - BYD's "618" promotions involve discounts on 22 models, primarily priced below Rmb200k, with limited-time pricing until the end of June [1]. - The average blended ASP of the 12 models affected is Rmb114k, and these models accounted for significant portions of BYD's volume, revenue, and gross profit in Q1 2025 [3]. Financial Estimates - Following the promotion announcement, net profit estimates for 2025E-2027E have been reduced by 3%-5%, and target prices have been adjusted downwards by 3% [6]. - The report provides updated revenue forecasts, projecting Rmb777.1 billion for 2025, with a gradual increase to Rmb1.18 trillion by 2027 [11]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that traditional OEMs dominate the NEV sales volume mix in the below Rmb200k segment, indicating a competitive pricing environment [5][10]. - BYD's market position is reinforced by its strong competitive moat due to its vertical integration business model, positioning it as a leading global auto OEM [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba Health (0241.HK) is Neutral with a 12-month target price of HK$4.10 per share, indicating a downside potential of 8.9% from the current price of HK$4.50 [2][9]. Core Insights - Alibaba Health's management expressed confidence in achieving or exceeding the FY26 guidance, which includes a 5%-10% year-over-year growth in topline revenue and a 10%-20% year-over-year growth in adjusted net profit [3][6]. - The potential for asset injection from the parent company is being considered, with a focus on business synergy and operational outcomes [7]. - The management is evaluating the expansion of its O2O (Online to Offline) business, contingent on the pace of investment from the parent company in on-demand delivery initiatives [8]. Summary by Sections Guidance and Latest Updates - Management is confident in delivering or exceeding the high-end of the FY26 guidance, which targets a 5%-10% year-over-year growth in topline revenue and a 10%-20% year-over-year growth in adjusted net profit [3][6]. Asset Injection Potential - The primary consideration for potential asset injection from the parent group is the existence of business synergy and improved operational outcomes. Two potential directions include the drugs and nutrition products business from Tmall International and the O2O business from Ele.me [7]. O2O Business Insights - Alibaba Health is monitoring the decision to enhance its O2O business based on the parent company's investment pace in on-demand delivery. Key factors for O2O business success include offline pharmacies, preposition warehouses, a rider fleet, and user mindshare, which is expected to be bolstered by Taobao's Shan Gou initiative [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) with a target price of HK$172.00, representing an upside of 32.9% from the current price of HK$129.40 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a solid profit beat for Meituan in 1Q25, driven by strong local commerce profits, although it anticipates mixed reactions due to increased competition in the food delivery sector leading to higher subsidies [1][7]. - Meituan is aggressively defending its leadership in food delivery, expecting a healthy growth in food delivery volume into 2Q25, with a forecast of 9% year-over-year growth [7][20]. - The competitive landscape is becoming more fragmented, with expectations of a three-player market, which may impact future profitability [22]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for Meituan have been adjusted, with 2025 estimates showing a revenue of Rmb382,513.3 million, reflecting a growth of 11% year-over-year [3][20]. - The adjusted EBIT for the core local commerce segment is projected at Rmb44.7 billion for 2025, down from previous estimates due to increased competition and subsidies [20][22]. - The report anticipates a decline in food delivery EBIT by 33% for 2025 due to increased user subsidies [20]. Market Position and Strategy - Meituan maintains a leading position with over 14.5 million local service merchants and a strong user base, supported by membership programs [7][15]. - The company is focusing on expanding its Instashopping segment, which is expected to grow by 27% in 2Q25, driven by improved purchase frequency among users [17][20]. - Meituan's strategy includes significant investments in AI to enhance operational efficiency and drive growth, with a projected capex of Rmb14 billion for FY25 [20][22]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides various valuation metrics, including a P/E ratio of 15.9 for 2024 and a projected P/B ratio of 4.0 [3][9]. - The estimated free cash flow yield for 2024 is 6.6%, indicating a strong cash generation capability [9][10]. - The report reflects a downward adjustment in the target price from HK$200 to HK$172, considering the competitive pressures and revised profit expectations [22][28].

Deploying advanced nuclear reactor technologies for national security. Under this executive order, the administration is to ensure the rapid development, Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and oth ...

26 May 2025 | 7:59PM EDT Oil Comment: GS Top Projects Takeaways: Strong Supply in 2025-2026, Tighter Later n We identify takeaways from our equity analysts' 2025 Top Projects review of the world's major upstream oil projects. This review supports our below-the-forwards Brent/WTI oil price forecasts of $60/56 for the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026, but has positive implications for prices in the long term. n 2025-2026: Strong Non-OPEC ex Shale Supply, Lower Prices n Long Term: Tighter Supply, Higher Pr ...

26 May 2025 | 6:39PM EDT US Daily: Why We Only Expect a One-Time Inflation Boost from Tariffs (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3 ...