证券研究报告 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2024-08-27 | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | --- | --- | |---------------------------|------------| | 汽车行业 2024 年中期策略: | 2024-06-27 | | 双轮驱动下的需求依然值得 | | | 期待 | | | 汽车行业：乘用车海外（出 | 2023-09-04 | [Table_Title] 汽车行业：乘用车海外（出口）系列三 谁将引领下阶段全球汽车电气化进程？ [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 写在前面：21 年以来，国内新能源在政策端多层推动、供给端强产品 力产品推出、需求端新能源接受程度持续提升驱动下渗透率快速提升， 中国品牌凭借过去在"驱动技术的有效选择与储备"加持下持续向上， 其中诞生于中国市场的新品类—"电为主，油为辅"的插电混动（本篇 报告先以 PHEV ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [1]. Core Viewpoints - On August 23, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee reviewed policies to further promote the new pattern of Western Development, emphasizing the importance of energy resource engineering investment opportunities [2][3]. - The meeting highlighted three major construction areas: environmental governance, energy resources, and urbanization. It stressed the need for high-level protection and green low-carbon development, as well as the acceleration of energy resource project construction [3]. - The report suggests a continued focus on power engineering and integrated mining service and blasting companies. It recommends companies involved in green electricity construction and supporting energy/storage construction, such as China Huadian Heavy Industries and China Power Construction [3]. - The mining service and blasting industry is projected to have a market space of approximately 286.4 billion yuan in 2024, driven by the rich mineral resources in the West and increasing demand for blasting engineering [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the strategic significance of the Western Development initiative in relation to national energy, resource, food security, and border stability [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report reaffirms the need to focus on power engineering and integrated mining service companies, highlighting the importance of clean energy base construction and the expected growth in the mining service and blasting market [3]. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the construction and mining sectors, all rated as "Buy," with reasonable values and projected earnings per share for 2024 and 2025 [9].

证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产行业 加快构建房地产新模式，推动住房体检养老保险制度 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 明确房地产新模式概念，构建新模式下行业制度。24 年 8 月 23 日国 新办举行"推动高质量发展"系列主题新闻发布会探讨房地产新模式， 通过完善住房供应体系重点增加保障性住房供给，建立"人、房、地、 钱"要素联动机制，有序推进现房销售，建立城市房地产融资协调机 制及项目"白名单"制度，建立房屋体检、房屋养老金、房屋保险制 度，建设绿色、低碳、智能、安全的"好房子"等六个方面推动行业 进入 "发展新模式"。"新模式"的持续推进将较大程度上从制度层面 完善行业中土地、金融、财税等运行逻辑，从供给端改变行业运行逻 辑，区分市场需求、改善产品供给、提高行业安全性，为行业持续平 稳健康发展从根本上和制度上提供保障。 ⚫ 推动住房体检、养老、保险制度，22 城先行试点。本次会议中提到"建 立房屋体检、房屋养老金、房屋保险制度"，在上海等 22 城先行试点， 重点建立政府的公共账户。24 年 8 月 21 日上海人大常委会上提到将 定期对房屋进行安全检查消除隐患、在房屋需要 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" for companies with significant revenue elasticity in payment services, accelerated fee increases, and rapid development in overseas business [2]. Core Insights - The domestic payment industry is experiencing a consolidation of licenses, leading to an increase in market concentration among top players. As of June 2024, there are approximately 50 licensed payment institutions with card acquiring qualifications, down from 270 licenses issued from 2011 to 2017 [2][8]. - The report highlights that the comprehensive fee rates for major listed payment companies are expected to rise, which could enhance their gross margins. The fee rates had reached historical lows during the pandemic but have begun to increase since 2023 [2][20]. - The overseas payment business is showing high gross margins, with companies like Lianlian and Fuyou benefiting from lower comprehensive rates in international markets. The cross-border e-commerce sector is also expanding, with export values increasing significantly from 0.61 trillion yuan in 2018 to 1.83 trillion yuan in 2023 [2][20]. - The report anticipates that the digital economy will drive the development of the payment industry, with SaaS solutions enhancing value-added services for clients [2][20]. Summary by Sections Domestic Industry Background - The reduction in payment licenses has led to a concentration of market share among the top five payment companies, whose transaction volume share increased from 42.5% in June 2022 to 49.6% in March 2024 [8][12]. - The comprehensive fee rates for payment services are expected to rise, with the potential for gross margin growth as the industry recovers from previous low points [20][21]. - The trend of third-party payment companies accelerating their penetration into QR code payments is noted, with a shift in merchant preferences towards independent service providers due to data security concerns [27][29]. Overseas Industry Background - Companies like Lianlian and Fuyou have a significant proportion of their revenue coming from overseas operations, with high gross margins compared to domestic operations [2][20]. - The report indicates that the overseas payment business can contribute incremental revenue, as domestic players expand their international footprint [2][20]. Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of the digital economy in driving the payment industry's high-quality development, with a focus on providing diversified payment products and solutions [2][20]. - The growth of value-added services is becoming a crucial strategy for payment companies to enhance customer loyalty [2][20].

[Table_Title] 交通银行(601328.SH/03328.HK) 息差回升，拨备安全垫更夯实 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 交通银行发布 2024 年半年报：24H1 营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比分 别增长-3.5%、-6.3%、-1.6%，增速较 24Q1 分别回落 3.48pct、6.47pct、 3.07pct。从累计业绩驱动来看，规模增长、拨备计提和有效税率降低 是主要正贡献，净息差收窄、非息承压、成本收入比上升等形成拖累。 ⚫ 亮点：（1）个人贷款增速继续回升，普惠金融稳步扩张。24Q2 末信贷 同比增长 6.1%，增速较 24Q1 末小幅下滑。结构上，24Q2 对公贷款增 速回落，广义基建、制造业等重点行业增长仍稳健，同时需关注上半年 对公房地产贷款规模重回扩张。24Q2 末零售贷款同比增长 5.8%，增 速延续 24Q1 的回升态势，消费贷和经营贷为增长主力，按揭依旧疲弱。 公司发力普惠金融成效显著，24Q2 末，境内普惠型小微企业贷款、个 人消费贷款、涉农贷款分别较年初增长 15.74%、30.08%、9.34%。（2） 息差回升。公司 24H1 净息差 1.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 96.17 CNY per share based on a 20x PE valuation for 2024 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 4.748 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.97%, and a net profit of 1.236 billion CNY, down 2.21% year-on-year. The gross margin was 37.15%, a decline of 4.61 percentage points year-on-year [3][7]. - The company is experiencing growth in its emerging market layout, particularly in the inverter and energy storage sectors, with significant sales in countries like Pakistan, Germany, Brazil, India, and South Africa [2][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 5.956 billion CNY, projected to grow to 12.000 billion CNY by 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 60.4% [3][10]. - The company's net profit is expected to increase from 1.517 billion CNY in 2022 to 3.068 billion CNY in 2024, representing a growth rate of 71.3% [3][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 3.53 CNY in 2022 to 4.81 CNY in 2024 [3][10]. Business Segments - Inverter Business: Revenue for the inverter segment is expected to reach 6.514 billion CNY in 2024, with a gross margin of approximately 49% [7][9]. - Energy Storage Battery Packs: Revenue is projected to grow significantly, reaching 3.000 billion CNY in 2024, with a gross margin of around 38% [7][9]. - Heat Exchanger Series: Expected revenue for this segment is 1.469 billion CNY in 2024, with a stable gross margin of 11% [10]. - Dehumidifier Series: Revenue is anticipated to be 0.879 billion CNY in 2024, maintaining a gross margin of approximately 32% [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - Focus on companies: China General Nuclear Power, Huadian International Power, Zhejiang Energy, Sheneng Co., Huaneng International, Guangzhou Development, Yangtze Power, and Funiu Co. [2] - Electricity consumption growth has slowed, with hydropower's squeezing effect diminishing, leading to a rebound in thermal power growth. In July, total electricity consumption increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with the secondary industry growing by 5.0% [2][15] - Mid-year performance reports are being released, with 22 companies in the GFGY sample reporting a total net profit of 46.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%. Six companies announced mid-term dividend plans, indicating strong cash dividend capabilities in the utility sector [2][13] - The introduction of auxiliary service guidelines marks the second phase of the thermal power value cycle, with expectations for continuous improvement in quarterly profits and stable coal prices [2][8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Thermal Power Growth and Mid-term Dividends - Several utility companies have increased mid-term dividends, reinforcing the sector's utility attributes. As of August 24, 22 companies in the GFGY sample have released mid-year reports, with six announcing dividend plans [13] - In July, total electricity consumption increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with the secondary industry contributing significantly [15][29] Section 2: Policy Review - The report discusses the implementation of major equipment updates in key energy sectors, reflecting ongoing policy support for the industry [8] Section 3: Industry High-frequency Data Tracking - Recent data shows stabilization in domestic and international coal prices, with coastal power plant loads decreasing month-on-month but increasing year-on-year [8] Section 4: Key Company Announcements and Sector Tracking - The report tracks individual company dynamics, including those of Guodian Power, Zhejiang Energy, China General Nuclear, and Huadian International, highlighting their performance and market positioning [8][29]

[Table_PicQuote] 气延续 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 基础化工行业 制冷剂配额调整落地，民爆需求持续区域分化 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 行业基础数据跟踪：据 wind 资讯，8 月 17 日~8 月 23 日，SW 基础 化工板块下降 3.11%，跑输万得全 A 指数 0.88pct；化工子行业下跌较 多，表现较差的有粘胶、纯碱、无机盐和民爆制品等板块，表现较好的 有氮肥板块。 ⚫ 化工品价格下跌较多:据百川、wind 资讯，在我们跟踪的 336 个产品 中,上涨、持平、下跌的产品数量分别 61 种、162 种、113 种,占比分 别为 18%、48%和 34%。化工品价格下跌较多。价格涨幅前五：液氯、 维生素 A(50 万 IU/g)、二乙醇胺、醋酸、维生素 B1(98%)。价格跌幅 前五：日本 LNG 现货、棉短绒(短丝)、亚洲柴油、焦炭、美国 HenryHub 期货。 ⚫ 制冷剂剩余配额调整落地。根据氟务在线公众号，生态环境部近日下 发最新配额政策，分配剩余 HFC-32 生产配额数量 3.5 万吨，分配配 额仅限 2024 年度有 ...

证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 汽车行业：乘用车海外（出口）系列二 谁将拉动中国品牌海外份额持续向上 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 乘用车出口数据口径众多，如何从繁杂的数据中寻找最有效的线索 呢？综合考虑数据的前瞻性和可得性，并结合我们对车企量利分析的 核心需求，我们筛选出以下四个核心跟踪指标：海外终端份额、海外终 端售价、海外库存和本地化生产占比。 ⚫ 复盘：21-24H1（H1 指上半年）终端份额快速提升的背后驱动力拆解。 海外不包括美日韩市场后乘用车年销量区间为 3000-4000 万辆，以上 即为中国品牌车企份额有望突破的海外市场空间，24H1 中国品牌乘用 车在其中的终端加权市占率为 7.4%。从驱动力来看，新能源、俄罗斯 市场和俄罗斯以外燃油车市场共同拉动海外终端份额提升。根据各国 官网和 Marklines 数据，其中：（1）新能源：拉动力度逐年增强，21- 24H1 分别拉动份额提升 0.1/0.4/0.6/0.4pct，主要系在西欧、泰国和巴 西市场的接连突破；（2）俄罗斯市场：21-24H1 拉动份额提升 0.2/0.0 /1.2/1.3pct，主要是由于其市场 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several major insurance companies, including China Pacific Insurance (A/H), China Property & Casualty Insurance (H), China Life Insurance (A/H), and Ping An Insurance (A/H) [1] Core Views - The implementation of new accounting standards (IFRS 9 and IFRS 17) has significantly impacted the insurance industry, leading to increased profit volatility and reduced revenue scale [1] - The new standards have brought about major changes in the classification of financial assets and the measurement of insurance contract liabilities, affecting both the asset and liability sides of insurance companies [1] - The transition to the new standards has been smoother for listed companies, with non-listed companies expected to implement the standards by 2026 [1] IFRS 9 - Asset Reclassification and Profit Volatility - Financial assets are now classified into three categories (AC, FVOCI, FVTPL) instead of four, leading to a significant increase in FVTPL assets, which are more sensitive to market fluctuations [12][13] - The proportion of FVTPL assets has risen sharply, with companies like China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific seeing FVTPL ratios of 30.1%, 23.6%, and 25.8% respectively in 2023 [14] - The new classification has increased profit volatility, as changes in the fair value of FVTPL assets directly impact the income statement [16] IFRS 9 - Impairment Model Changes - The shift from the incurred loss model to the expected credit loss (ECL) model under IFRS 9 has led to more prudent asset allocation, with insurers focusing on lower-risk assets [18] - The ECL model requires insurers to recognize credit losses earlier, which has led to stricter asset quality reviews and a preference for low-risk investments [18] IFRS 17 - Insurance Contract Liability Measurement - IFRS 17 has introduced significant changes in the measurement of insurance contract liabilities, with a focus on better matching assets and liabilities [24] - The new standard has redefined insurance contracts, leading to a significant reduction in reported revenue, particularly for life insurance companies, due to the exclusion of investment components [25] - The introduction of the Contractual Service Margin (CSM) under IFRS 17 allows for the absorption of non-economic assumption changes, helping to smooth profit volatility [34] IFRS 17 - Financial Statement Changes - The new standard has simplified the balance sheet by consolidating various reserve accounts into a single insurance contract liability category [49] - The income statement now separates insurance service performance and investment performance, providing clearer insights into the sources of profit [49] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights that listed companies have successfully transitioned to the new accounting standards and recommends investing in major insurers like China Pacific, China Property & Casualty, China Life, and Ping An [1] Industry Impact - The new standards have led to increased profit volatility and reduced revenue scale, but the intrinsic value assessment logic, product strategies, and solvency systems remain unchanged [1] - The implementation of IFRS 9 and IFRS 17 has brought about a significant transformation in the insurance industry, with a focus on higher-quality development [9]