[Table_Title] 机械设备行业 8 月 PMI 环比略降，等待基本面变化 [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|机械设备 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|------------| | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2024-09-09 | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 市场表现分析：根据 Wind 数据，本期（9 月 2 日-9 月 6 日）机械行业 指数（中信）下跌 2.89%，沪深 300 指数下跌 2.71%，创业板指下跌 2.68%。 ⚫ 8 月 PMI 环比下降 0.3 个百分点。根据国家统计局 8 月 31 日公布的数 据，8 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.1%，较上月下降 0.3 个百分点，制造业景气度小幅回落。从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 50.4%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点，仍高于临界点；中、小型企业 PMI 分别为 48.7%和 46.4%，比上月下降 0.7 和 0.3 个百分点。从分类指 数看，在构 ...

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: BuyTransaction_BuyOrder_ratio_09150920 - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the ratio of buy transactions to buy orders during the 09:15-09:20 pre-market auction period, reflecting the buying activity in the early auction phase[7][20][22] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated using Level 2 tick-by-tick order data, focusing on the 09:15-09:20 time window. It aggregates buy transactions and compares them to the total buy orders during this period[20][22] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates good monotonicity in portfolio returns when ranked and sorted into quantiles, indicating its effectiveness in capturing early buying activity[34][36] - **Factor Test Results**: - Top-30 portfolio achieved an annualized excess return of 6.73% over the Shenzhen A-Share Index from March 2019 to May 2024 - Top-50 portfolio achieved 5.91%, and Top-100 portfolio achieved 5.82%[34][38] 2. Factor Name: BuyWithdrew_BuyOrder_ratio_09150920 - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the ratio of buy order withdrawals to total buy orders during the 09:15-09:20 pre-market auction period, reflecting the withdrawal behavior of buyers[7][20][22] - **Factor Construction Process**: Using Level 2 data, the factor aggregates the number of buy order withdrawals and compares it to the total buy orders during the specified time window[20][22] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows strong monotonicity in portfolio returns, indicating its ability to capture meaningful withdrawal patterns[42][44] - **Factor Test Results**: - Top-30 portfolio achieved an annualized excess return of 11.88% over the Shenzhen A-Share Index from March 2019 to May 2024 - Top-50 portfolio achieved 10.26%, and Top-100 portfolio achieved 8.28%[42][47] 3. Factor Name: Transaction_Order_ratio_09200925 - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the ratio of transactions to total orders during the 09:20-09:25 pre-market auction period, capturing overall trading activity in the late auction phase[7][20][22] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is derived from Level 2 data by aggregating transaction volumes and comparing them to total order volumes during the 09:20-09:25 time window[20][22] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor exhibits good monotonicity in portfolio returns, suggesting its effectiveness in identifying active trading stocks during this period[52][53] - **Factor Test Results**: - Top-30 portfolio achieved an annualized excess return of 6.49% over the Shenzhen A-Share Index from March 2019 to May 2024 - Top-50 portfolio achieved 5.94%, and Top-100 portfolio achieved 5.20%[52][59] 4. Factor Name: BuyTransaction_BuyOrder_ratio_09150925 - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the ratio of buy transactions to buy orders during the entire 09:15-09:25 pre-market auction period, combining early and late auction phases[7][20][22] - **Factor Construction Process**: Using Level 2 data, the factor aggregates buy transactions and compares them to total buy orders across the 09:15-09:25 time window[20][22] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates consistent monotonicity in portfolio returns, indicating its robustness in capturing buying activity across the entire auction period[61][62] - **Factor Test Results**: - Top-30 portfolio achieved an annualized excess return of 5.63% over the Shenzhen A-Share Index from March 2019 to May 2024 - Top-50 portfolio achieved 6.07%, and Top-100 portfolio achieved 5.47%[61][69] 5. Factor Name: SellTransaction_SellOrder_ratio_14571500 - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the ratio of sell transactions to sell orders during the 14:57-15:00 closing auction period, reflecting selling pressure at the market close[7][20][22] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated using Level 2 data by aggregating sell transactions and comparing them to total sell orders during the 14:57-15:00 time window[20][22] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows strong monotonicity in portfolio returns, indicating its ability to capture significant selling activity during the closing auction[71][72] - **Factor Test Results**: - Top-30 portfolio achieved an annualized excess return of 10.90% over the Shenzhen A-Share Index from March 2019 to May 2024 - Top-50 portfolio achieved 10.37%, and Top-100 portfolio achieved 9.98%[71][78]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.99 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 12 times for 2024 [4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant performance increase in H1 2024, achieving revenue of 1.351 billion CNY, up 22.02% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 84 million CNY, up 93.67% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue reached 814 million CNY, a 28.34% increase year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders soaring 164.26% to 54 million CNY [2][3]. - The growth in performance is attributed to the production commencement of the Jingzhou project, which significantly enhanced capacity and showcased scale effects, alongside a reduction in impairment provisions from the previous year [2]. - The company's profitability has improved, with H1 2024 gross margin, net margin, and net margin excluding non-recurring items at 14.46%, 6.18%, and 4.85%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.33, 2.29, and 1.75 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report anticipates continued strong growth for the year, driven by the cost advantages of the Jingzhou project and the successful launch of the color-spun yarn project, which is expected to enhance product development capabilities [2]. Financial Summary - For the years 2024 to 2026, the company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 1.33 CNY, 1.59 CNY, and 1.79 CNY, respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 3.309 billion CNY in 2024 to 4.122 billion CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 31.8%, 17.5%, and 6.0% for the respective years [3][8]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in net profit, with projections of 200 million CNY in 2024, 238 million CNY in 2025, and 268 million CNY in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 91.1%, 19.3%, and 12.5% [3][8].

[Table_Page] 中报点评|中药Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 众生药业（002317.SZ） Q2 环比业绩改善明显，创新研发顺利 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 公司发布 2024 年半年报：2024 上半年营业收入 13.64 亿元，同比 -7.96%；归母净利润 0.87 亿元，同比-58.09%，主要受中成药集采降 价、金融资产公允价值变动、计提预计负债影响；扣非归母净利润为 1.74 亿元，同比-24.28%。销售、管理、研发费用分别为 4.43 亿元（同 比-12.87%）、0.70 亿元（同比-8.59%）、0.57 亿元（同比+7.50%）， 费用率分别为 32.43%、5.10%、4.21%，体现较高的费用控制效率。 经营活动现金流 2.13 亿元（同比+235.57%）。2024Q2 营收 7.23 亿元 （同比-1.67%），归母净利润 0.36 亿元（同比-47.79%），扣非归母净 利润 1.01 亿元，环比+40.47%，环比业绩改善明显。 ⚫ 中成药短期承压，长期发展稳健。2024 上半年中成药收入 7.67 亿元， 同比-5.11%。复方 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaneng International is "Buy - A / Buy - H" [3] Core Views - The controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by 0.15%-0.21% of A shares, demonstrating long-term confidence in development. On September 9, Huaneng Group's action partner, Huaneng Structural Adjustment No. 1 Fund, increased its holdings by 15 million A shares, accounting for 0.0956% of the total share capital. The group aims to cumulatively increase its stake by no less than 0.15% and no more than 0.21% within three months [4] - The net asset value is expected to continue to recover, with significant dividend value. The company's adjusted net assets for H1 2024 are projected to be 55.9 billion yuan (excluding perpetual bonds of 79.6 billion yuan), an increase of 6.4% compared to the end of the previous year. The stable profit growth from auxiliary services is expected to support the current ROE and net asset recovery. The cash dividend for 2024, after deducting perpetual bond interest, is estimated at approximately 4.1 billion yuan, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.9% for A shares and 6.9% for H shares based on the latest closing prices [4] - Stable coal prices, the implementation of auxiliary services, and the signing of electricity and price contracts are key areas to watch. In Q3, thermal power generation is expected to decrease significantly due to water supply impacts, while market coal prices are stabilizing and may decline. Performance is anticipated to exceed expectations. The auxiliary services in Hunan, Yunnan, and Henan are under consultation, with expectations for more provinces to follow suit. Concerns about next year's electricity and price remain, but monitoring Q4 spot coal prices is essential [4] - Earnings forecasts and investment recommendations indicate that EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.70, 0.80, and 0.90 yuan per share, respectively. The latest closing price corresponds to PE ratios of 9.46, 8.24, and 7.36 times. The profitability of thermal power is expected to stabilize, and the electricity reform is reshaping value. A target PE of 13 times for 2024 suggests a reasonable value of 9.05 yuan per share for A shares and 5.70 HKD per share for H shares, maintaining a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares [4] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 246.725 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 20.3%. For 2023, revenue is projected at 254.397 billion yuan, a growth rate of 3.1%. The forecast for 2024 is 252.565 billion yuan, indicating a slight decline of 0.7% [4] - The EBITDA for 2022 was 24.461 billion yuan, increasing to 47.361 billion yuan in 2023, with a forecast of 54.073 billion yuan for 2024 [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -7.387 billion yuan in 2022, expected to turn positive at 8.446 billion yuan in 2023, and further increase to 10.933 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - The EPS for 2022 was -0.47 yuan, expected to rise to 0.54 yuan in 2023, and further to 0.70 yuan in 2024 [4]

[Table_Page] 深度分析|电力设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 电力设备行业 2024 年中报总结 看好电网国内景气持续性与海外成长性 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 我们选取 24 家电力设备企业作为样本开展分析（下同），分为主网一 次设备、二次设备、配网、电表、数字化五大板块。 业绩增速：高景气度延续，海外增速高于国内。国内收入稳健增长， 24H1 国内收入同比+12.1%，毛利同比+18.7%。海外收入增速高于国 内，24H1 海外收入同比+26.2%，毛利同比+30.8%。海外配网增速最 高，达 59.6%。绝大部分公司（22/24）收入业绩均实现同比增长。 盈利能力：ROE 持续提升，电表板块表现突出。24H1，过半数公司 ROE 实现同比提升，主因产品结构改善带动销售净利率提升，排产增 加提升资产周转率。毛利率整体呈提升趋势，电表板块提升幅度最大。 24Q2 三星医疗 / 海 兴 电 力 / 炬 华 科 技 毛 利 率 为 37.21%/44.16%/53.17%，同比+5.63pct/5.86pct/7.70pct。 偿债能力：国企现金流持续改善。24H1，绝 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of aviation engines, focusing on military and civilian aviation engines, gas turbines, and related products. It integrates the full spectrum of domestic military aviation engines and covers various fields including aviation engines, derived products, foreign trade outsourcing, and non-aviation products [1]. - The core investment logic is based on sustained demand and a highly scarce supply structure, positioning the company as a "big single product" type enterprise. The demand side is buoyed by military aircraft updates, the growing application of modified engines driven by clean energy needs, and a broad civil aviation market. The supply side is characterized by a global oligopoly in military and civilian aviation engines, with a clear trend towards domestic production in China [1]. - The company has a competitive advantage as one of the few international firms capable of independently developing aviation engine products. Its existing mature processes and application experience can further consolidate its market position through product diversification [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2022 was 37,097 million yuan, with a projected growth rate of 17.9% for 2023, reaching 43,734 million yuan. The expected revenue for 2024 is 51,825 million yuan, with a growth rate of 18.5% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 1,267 million yuan, with a projected increase to 1,421 million yuan in 2023, and further growth to 1,621 million yuan in 2024 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.61 yuan in 2024, 0.80 yuan in 2025, and 1.09 yuan in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 70 times for 2024, leading to a reasonable value of 42.57 yuan per share [1][2]. Business Structure - In the first half of 2024, the company generated 171.60 billion yuan from aviation engines and derived products, accounting for 92.52% of total revenue. Foreign trade outsourcing contributed 10.04 billion yuan (5.41%), while non-aviation products and other businesses accounted for 3.60 billion yuan (1.94%) and 2.84 billion yuan (1.53%) respectively [9][10]. - The company has a history of over 20 years and is primarily owned by the China Aviation Engine Group, which holds 45.79% of the shares [11][12]. Growth Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for its products and services, with a projected revenue of 497.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 15.12 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.79% and 6.48% respectively [19][20]. - The company has shown a stable increase in revenue and net profit over the years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.77% for revenue and 7.18% for net profit from 2019 to 2023 [14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Interest rates serve as a guiding factor for asset allocation among global financial institutions, significantly impacting the allocation of major asset classes. The report focuses on the asset allocation structure changes of public asset management, insurance asset management, and investment banks in the low-interest-rate environments of the US and Japan, aiming to provide insights for domestic institutions [2][3] - Public asset management: During periods of declining interest rates, the proportion of fixed-income products increases; however, when rates drop to a certain level, the scale of fixed-income products begins to shrink. In the US, the proportion of bond-type funds in mutual funds, closed-end funds, and ETFs rises as interest rates fall. In Japan, fixed-income funds grow in both scale and proportion during the decline of interest rates, but when the 10Y government bond yield drops to around 1.3%, the scale of fixed-income products starts to decline [2][3] - Insurance asset management: The equity-debt ratio is less affected by interest rates; during low-interest periods, institutions extend duration and lower credit quality. When domestic interest rates are too low, they actively invest in overseas securities. US life insurance companies have adopted strategies to extend duration and lower credit quality to compensate for low investment yields in a low-interest environment [2][3] - Investment banks: In low-interest periods, the proportion of low-profit businesses such as margin financing and loans decreases; the proportion of investment and market-making business funding is related to the absolute level of interest rates. The profitability of margin financing and loans is highly correlated with interest rates, leading to a significant reduction in their funding proportion during low-interest periods [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. US and Japan Interest Rate Trends and Background Review - The report reviews the background and trends of interest rate changes in the US and Japan, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic factors and monetary policy on interest rates over the past 30-35 years [13][14] 2. Public Asset Management Institutions' Asset Allocation Evolution in Low-Interest Periods - The report analyzes the asset allocation evolution of public asset management institutions in the US and Japan during low-interest periods, emphasizing the relationship between interest rates and the allocation of fixed-income products [29][44] 3. Insurance Asset Management in Low-Interest Periods - The report discusses the asset allocation strategies of insurance companies in the US and Japan during low-interest periods, focusing on the stability and risk management aspects of their investment strategies [53][62] 4. Investment Banks' Asset Allocation in Low-Interest Periods - The report examines the asset allocation changes of investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley in the US, and Nomura in Japan during low-interest periods, highlighting the shifts in funding proportions across different business lines [67][83] 5. Comparative Analysis of Asset Allocation in Different Institutions - The report compares the asset allocation characteristics of public asset management, insurance, and investment banks in the US and Japan, summarizing the main features and reasons behind their asset allocation strategies [99][100] 6. Implications for China's Financial Institutions - The report provides insights for Chinese financial institutions on how to adapt their asset allocation strategies in the current low-interest environment, drawing lessons from the experiences of US and Japanese institutions [104][106]

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|电子 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 电子行业 2024 年中报总结 24H1 营收、利润同比增长，复苏态势明显 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 电子行业：24H1 营收、利润同比增长，复苏态势明显。根据 Wind 数 据，2024 年上半年电子行业（选用 SW 及 CTI 电子行业指数）整体 营收同比增长 11%；归母净利润同比增长 31%。单季度来看，24Q2 电 子行业整体营收同比增长 11%，环比增加 11%；整体归母净利润同比 增长 18%，环比增长 36%。总体来看，上半年电子行业景气度进入上 行通道，营收、利润同比均呈增长态势，复苏态势明显。 ⚫ 消费电子：景气度上行带动收入增长，盈利能力持续回升。收入方面， 2024Q2 消费电子板块营业收入同比增长 11%，环比增长 6%。24H1 消费电子板块营收同比增长 12%。利润方面，2024 Q2 消费电子板块 归母净利润同比增长 24%，环比增长 5%，24H1 消费电子板块归母净 利润同比增长 49%。上半年受到终端景气复苏的带动，消费电子板块 营收及利润显著回升。下半年进入传统旺季 ...

[Table_Page] 中报点评|专业工程 盈利预测： 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） Q2 归母净利承压，中长期看好产线智能化 带动吨净利提升 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 公司发布 2024 年半年报。根据财报，24Q2 营收 59 亿元/同比-2.6%， 归母净利 2.2 亿元/同比-36.1%，扣非净利 1.5 亿元/同比-51.6%；归母 /扣非净利降幅不匹配主系 24H1 其他收益为 2.4 亿元（23H1 其他收益 为 1.3 亿元，均主要为政府补助）。 ⚫ 期间费用率稳定，经营性现金流承压。24H1 公司期间费用率为 3.46%/ 同 比 +0.40pct ， 其 中 销 售 / 管 理 / 财 务 费 用 率 同 比 分 别 +0.03/+0.10/+0.27pct，基本保持稳定。24H1 经营性现金流出 0.5 亿 元（23H1 净流入 6.5 亿元），其中 24Q2 经营性现金流流出 1.3 亿元 （23Q2 净流入 4.9 亿元）。主要系营收下滑致使经营性现金流流入减 少，且 Q2 受购买商品、接受劳务支付的现金增加（同比多 ...