Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of Fuyao Glass, with current prices at 58.60 CNY and 56.60 HKD respectively, and a reasonable value of 68.66 CNY and 65.52 HKD [1][9]. Core Insights - In Q3 2024, Fuyao Glass reported a revenue increase of 13.4% year-on-year, outperforming the domestic automotive sales growth by approximately 17.3 percentage points [2][4]. - The company's gross margin improved for seven consecutive quarters, reaching 38.8% in Q3 2024, benefiting from quality enhancement, operational leverage, and a decline in raw material prices [4][9]. - The company is entering a new phase of global capacity expansion, driven by high-value products such as panoramic glass and HUD glass, which are expected to continue enhancing the average selling price (ASP) [7][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, Fuyao Glass achieved a revenue of 283.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 54.8 billion CNY, up 32.8% [2][4]. - The total profit, adjusted for foreign exchange losses, was 68.1 billion CNY, reflecting a 49.4% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - The company forecasts EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 2.86 CNY, 3.45 CNY, and 4.09 CNY per share respectively, with a maintained "Buy" rating [9][11].

[Table_Page] 季报点评|股份制银行Ⅱ | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|----------------------------|--------------| | | | | | | | 证券研究报告 | | [Table_Title] 平安银行（ ） | [ 公司评级 Table_Invest] | 买入 | | 000001.SZ | 当前价格 | 12.04 元 | | 业务调整持续，负债经营成效显著 | 合理价值 | 17.91 元 | | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 报告日期 | 2024-10-19 | 平安银行发布 2024 年三季度报告，我们点评如下：2024 年前三季度 营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比分别增长-12.6%、-13.7%、0.2%，增速 较 24H1 分别变动+0.38pct、+0.56pct、-1.70pct。从业绩驱动来看，规 模增长、拨备计提、其他收支、有效税率降低形成正贡献，净息差收窄 为主要拖累。 亮点：（1）负债端经营成效显著。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - Hengli Heavy Industry plans to go public through a reverse merger with Songfa Co., indicating a rising star among private shipbuilding companies. The company reported a revenue of 770 million CNY and a net profit of 4.05 million CNY for 2023, with a backlog of orders valued at 10.8 billion USD [2][3] - Hengli Heavy Industry is positioned as a leading private shipbuilding enterprise, actively expanding its shipbuilding and engine production capacity. The company is set to invest 9.2 billion CNY in a second phase of its industrial park, which will significantly enhance its production capabilities [2][3] - The gap in new order scale and shipbuilding capacity between Hengli Heavy Industry and another leading private shipbuilding company, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, is gradually narrowing, with both companies showing strong order backlogs [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Developments - Hengli Heavy Industry's asset restructuring plan involves acquiring 100% of its shares through a major asset swap and issuing shares at a price of 10.16 CNY per share. The final transaction price is yet to be determined [2] - The company has achieved profitability and expects significant improvement in its earnings as its shipbuilding operations ramp up in 2024 [2][3] Market Position - As of now, Hengli Heavy Industry ranks approximately 15th globally in terms of order backlog, with a diverse range of ship types including bulk carriers, VLCCs, VLOCs, and container ships [2] - The company is expanding its production capabilities with plans for two new super-large dry docks and advanced lifting equipment, aiming to produce high-value ships and offshore platforms [2][3] Competitive Landscape - The order backlog for Hengli Heavy Industry stands at 2.68 million CGT compared to Yangzijiang's 7.4 million CGT, but the new order scale is showing a narrowing gap [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of HKD 12.28 and a fair value of HKD 14.38 [1]. Core Views - The Hong Kong government has proposed further planning for the Northern Metropolis construction, which is expected to supply approximately 60,000 housing units over the next five years, reducing the waiting time to four and a half years [1]. - The Northern Metropolis development is anticipated to accelerate the company's business growth in Hong Kong, with a significant increase in new orders and revenue [1]. - The expected growth from the Northern Metropolis and the "Ten-Year Hospital Development Plan" is projected to drive the growth of the Hong Kong construction market [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The report highlights the company's leading position in the Hong Kong and Macau infrastructure sector, emphasizing its role in high-quality development through technology and investment [1]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected to be HKD 113,742 million, with a growth rate of 11.36% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach HKD 9,164 million in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 15.17% [4]. - The EBITDA for 2023 is forecasted at HKD 15,863 million, with a growth rate of 12.92% [4]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects the company's net profit for 2024 to be HKD 10,348 million, with a corresponding PE ratio of 5.98 [6]. - The expected EPS for 2024 is HKD 2.05, indicating a positive trend in earnings per share [6]. - The report maintains a fair value estimate of HKD 14.38 per share, supporting the "Buy" rating [1]. Market Outlook - The construction market in Hong Kong is expected to grow significantly due to government initiatives and infrastructure projects, which will benefit the company [1]. - The report notes that the company's business in Hong Kong has begun to accelerate, with a positive outlook for sustained growth [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [4]. Core Views - The company expects a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024, estimated between CNY 101.135 billion and CNY 108.767 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 184.6% to 206% [2]. - The substantial growth in profit is primarily driven by a recovery in the stock market, which has led to a significant increase in investment income, nearly doubling the net profit compared to the same period last year [2]. - The company holds a considerable proportion of equity and fund assets, with 11.8% in public market equities, which has been positively impacted by the market's recovery [2]. - The report anticipates that the new business value growth will continue to expand, supported by a decline in the cost of liabilities and favorable policies [2]. Summary by Sections Profit Forecast - The company forecasts an EPS of CNY 3.96, CNY 4.08, and CNY 4.28 for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [3][10]. - The expected growth rates for net profit attributable to shareholders are 142.08%, 3.13%, and 4.84% for the years 2024 to 2026 [3][10]. Valuation - The report assigns a PEV of 0.90X for A-shares and 0.30X for H-shares, with a corresponding fair value of CNY 46.25 per share for A-shares and HKD 16.84 per share for H-shares [10]. - The valuation reflects a recovery in the capital market and stable growth in value, which is expected to drive the company's valuation upward [10]. Business Performance - The company anticipates a total premium income growth of 2.3%, 5.8%, and 6.0% over the next three years, with individual insurance channels showing a positive trend [9]. - The report highlights that the investment performance is expected to improve significantly due to favorable market conditions and the company's strategic asset management [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 76.77 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 57.01 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2024 results with revenue of 3.561 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 179 million CNY, up 19.88% year-on-year, meeting expectations [1]. - The shipping rates remained relatively strong in Q3, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) averaging 3082 points, a year-on-year increase of 12.67% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.26%. This favorable shipping rate environment supports the company's global freight forwarding and mobility operations [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in chemical demand, as domestic and international chemical inventories are at relatively low levels. The ongoing policy support in China is anticipated to boost chemical demand, leading to increased operating rates and inventory replenishment, which will enhance the company's trade volume and warehouse capacity utilization [1]. - The integrated logistics service model is expected to drive continuous performance release, with the company expanding its distribution services for chemical products. The new warehouses launched in 2023 are still ramping up capacity utilization, indicating significant profit potential [1]. - Earnings forecasts for the company are optimistic, with expected EPS of 3.84 CNY, 4.77 CNY, and 5.52 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The report assigns a 20x PE valuation for 2024, leading to a reasonable value of 76.77 CNY per share [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 12.349 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 26.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 622 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 44.1% [6][8]. - The EBITDA for 2024E is forecasted at 1.521 billion CNY, with a significant increase in profitability anticipated in the following years [6][8]. - The report highlights a projected increase in EPS from 3.68 CNY in 2022 to 5.52 CNY by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8].

Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the construction and decoration industry, particularly focusing on the benefits of debt resolution for construction companies, which is expected to improve order acquisition, financial structure, and valuation [2][3] Core Views - Local debt resolution is progressing smoothly, with a clear five-year debt clearance target. The central government has allocated significant funds to support debt resolution, including 2.2 trillion yuan in 2023 and 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024 [2] - Regions with better economic foundations are expected to see marginal improvements in their economic environment, especially those with significant fixed investment gaps and past central government support [2] - Areas with high expenditure pressure and debt burdens, such as Sichuan, Guangdong, Shandong, and Henan, are likely to receive policy support to alleviate their financial stress [2] - Policy relaxation and endogenous growth in regions where financing platforms have exited are expected to improve local financing capabilities, benefiting local construction companies [2] Regional Selection and Investment Strategies Strategy 1: Regions with Strong Economic Foundations - Regions with better economic foundations, such as Shandong, Sichuan, Anhui, and Shaanxi, are expected to see significant improvements in their fundamentals due to fiscal support and fixed investment gaps [2][17] - These regions have faced pressure on local government revenues, particularly due to declines in land sales revenue, but are expected to benefit from future policy support [17] Strategy 2: Regions with High Expenditure Pressure - Regions with high expenditure pressure, such as Yunnan, Guizhou, Shanxi, and Chongqing, are likely to receive policy support to address their financial gaps and high debt burdens [2][21] - These regions have significant fiscal deficits and high debt service pressures, making them key targets for debt resolution policies [21] Strategy 3: Policy Relaxation and Endogenous Growth - Regions where financing platforms have exited, such as Chongqing, are expected to see improved financing capabilities, which will benefit local construction companies [2][29] - The exit of financing platforms in these regions is expected to lead to better financing conditions and increased demand for construction projects [29] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading state-owned construction companies in key provinces, central construction enterprises with significant infrastructure projects, and design consulting firms in key regions [3][31] - Specific companies highlighted include Anhui Construction Engineering, Tunnel Co, Sichuan Road & Bridge, and China Communications Construction, among others [3][31] Financial Analysis of Key Companies - The report provides detailed financial analysis of key companies, including their debt levels, asset structures, and profitability metrics [5][31] - Companies such as China State Construction Engineering, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction are highlighted for their strong financial positions and potential for improvement [5][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The life insurance premium growth has generally expanded due to low year-on-year comparisons and high household savings willingness. The original premium growth rates for major listed life insurance companies from January to September are 9.8% for Ping An, 5.1% for China Life, 1.9% for New China Life, and 2.4% for China Pacific, showing an increase from August's rates of 8.9%, 5.9%, 1.9%, and 1.5% respectively. However, the single-month premium growth in September saw a decline, with rates of 20.1%, -4%, 2.1%, and 12.6% respectively, primarily due to the reduction in the guaranteed interest rate of traditional insurance products, which led to some savings demand being brought forward [3][3]. - The property insurance premium growth continues to accelerate, with the year-on-year growth rates for major property insurers from January to September being 4.6% for PICC Property, 5.9% for Ping An Property, and 7.7% for China Pacific Property, all showing an increase from August's rates of 4.3%, 5.3%, and 7.7% respectively. The growth in auto insurance premiums is expected to gradually expand due to a recovery in macroeconomic conditions and an increase in average premiums [3][3]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The life insurance premium growth for major companies has shown a general expansion, with Ping An leading in cumulative premium growth due to new business driving renewal premium growth. The shift in product structure towards participating insurance is anticipated due to the reduction in guaranteed interest rates, with a focus on the 2025 new product situation [3][3]. Property Insurance - The property insurance sector has seen a continued acceleration in premium growth, with significant contributions from both auto and non-auto insurance segments. The growth in auto insurance premiums is expected to improve as the average premium stabilizes and macroeconomic recovery takes place [3][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a "Buy" rating for the insurance sector, highlighting that the growth in liabilities and the expected improvement in asset performance, combined with favorable policies, support this outlook. Specific stocks to watch include China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, Ping An, China Life, China Taiping, China Property, and AIA [3][3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the water resource tax reform pilot program aims to encourage water conservation and increase local fiscal revenue. The reform will differentiate tax rates based on water resource conditions and usage types, with higher rates for groundwater extraction in areas of severe water scarcity [1] - The total estimated water resource tax revenue nationwide is projected to be 48.2 billion CNY, with local government fiscal revenue expected to increase by 4.8 billion CNY [1] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in recycled water, water-saving technologies, and water utility companies, particularly focusing on companies like Jinko Environment, Sanda Membrane, and Beikong Water Group [1][2] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - On October 16, the Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Water Resources jointly issued the "Implementation Measures for the Pilot Program of Water Resource Tax Reform," which will be fully implemented nationwide starting December 1 [1] - The reform aims to replace the previous water resource fee system with a tax system that varies based on water type and economic development [1] Financial Implications - The report estimates that the total water resource tax for both domestic and industrial use in 2022 was approximately 482.21 billion CNY, with surface water accounting for 83.3% and groundwater for 13.8% of total water usage [1][7] - The minimum average tax rates for surface and groundwater vary by province, with surface water rates ranging from 0.1 to 1.6 CNY per cubic meter and groundwater rates from 0.2 to 4 CNY per cubic meter [7] Company Focus - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in recycled water and water-saving technologies, such as Jinko Environment, which specializes in recycled water equipment, and Beikong Water Group, which is expected to benefit from improved local fiscal capabilities post-reform [1][2]

[Table_Title] 牛市中的市价订单与相关因子 海量 Level 2 数据因子挖掘系列（五） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 限价订单是指投资者设定一个指定价格，只有当市场价格达到或超过 这一价格时，订单才会被执行。在中国 A 股市场中，绝大部分的订单 类型为限价订单。 市价订单则是指提交订单时以当时订单簿中最优价格完成交易，其撮 合顺序将优于限价订单，所以市价单的执行可能性大于限价订单，也 不像限价单那样具有较高的逆向选择成本。当市场参与者的成交意愿 十分强烈时，提交市价订单是成交机会最高的订单方式。 在深证 A 股内，2019 年 3 月至 2024 年 9 月期间，采用 5 日平滑因子 以 20 日换仓进行选股，其中 6 个因子的 RankIC 均值大于 6.0%，胜 率大于 70%。其中，MarketSellOrder_LimitSellOrder_ratio 因子的选 股性能最优，分档组合收益的单调性显著，其 RankIC 均值为-6.6%、 胜率为 25%，根据该因子构建的 Top-30 组合在双边千三计费后的年化 收益率为 13.66%、最大回撤率为 36.72%、夏普比率为 ...