Core Insights - The report suggests that the second wave of market growth may start slowly, with the period before the Spring Festival potentially being a good buying opportunity due to seasonal patterns indicating February as the best month for Q1 performance [3][7] - It emphasizes that significant changes in economic data and household funding enthusiasm are likely to occur in March and April, making the pre-Spring Festival market position relatively safe for investment [3][7] - The report indicates that if the market experiences only seasonal fluctuations, the volatility will likely be limited, and any substantial upward movement in Q1 will require observation of economic turning points or household funding impacts [3][11] Strategy Perspective - The report highlights that historical data shows Q1 can experience significant volatility, influenced by economic data or household funding changes, with examples from 2008 to 2022 illustrating various market responses to economic conditions [11][12] - It notes that economic expectations are unlikely to change significantly before the Spring Festival, but the potential for change increases afterward, particularly from February to June [12][18] - The report points out that after a decline in trading volume, the initial recovery phase is typically slow, referencing past experiences from 2019 to 2021 where market rebounds were gradual following volume drops [15][18] Market Changes - The report states that all major A-share indices rose this week, with notable gains in the ChiNext 50 (4.76%) and ChiNext Index (4.66%) [22] - It mentions that the global market showed mixed results, with significant gains in European indices while Japanese and Indian markets declined [22][29] - The report also notes a net inflow of 150.57 billion yuan in southbound funds (Hong Kong Stock Connect) this week, indicating continued interest in A-shares [23][34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on financial and real estate sectors, which are expected to benefit from policy changes, followed by upstream cyclical industries and AI & consumer electronics [18][20] - It suggests that the current market environment favors a gradual accumulation strategy rather than aggressive buying, particularly in light of the anticipated slow start to the next market uptrend [17][18] - The report advises that the investment opportunities in the consumer sector may be limited, focusing on consumption downgrade trends and high dividend attributes [20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI revenue growth, with a projected capital expenditure increase for 2025 [2][3] - TSMC's 4Q24 revenue reached $26.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.4%, exceeding previous guidance [3][4] - The company expects a strong growth trajectory for 2025, with an estimated revenue increase of approximately 25% [3] Financial Performance - In 4Q24, TSMC's gross margin was 59.0%, up 6.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The operating margin for 4Q24 was 49.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4 percentage points [3][4] - The net income attributable to shareholders was $3.75 billion, a 57.0% increase year-on-year [4] Revenue Guidance - For 1Q25, TSMC projects revenue between $25 billion and $25.8 billion, with a midpoint of $25.4 billion, indicating a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.5% [3] - The expected gross margin for 1Q25 is between 57% and 59%, with a midpoint of 58% [3] Advanced Process and Application Distribution - In 4Q24, revenue from 7nm and below processes accounted for 74% of total revenue, with 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm contributing 26%, 34%, and 14% respectively [3] - High-Performance Computing (HPC) revenue increased by 19% quarter-on-quarter, representing 53% of total revenue in 4Q24 [3] Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for 4Q24 was $11.23 billion, an increase of $4.83 billion from 3Q24 [3] - The company anticipates total capital expenditure for 2025 to be between $38 billion and $42 billion, with 70% allocated to advanced processes [3] AI Demand - AI-related revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 45% from 2024 to 2029, with AI acceleration card revenue projected to account for about 15% of total revenue in 2024 [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI revenue growth, with a projected capital expenditure increase for 2025 [2][3] - TSMC's 4Q24 revenue reached $26.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.4% [3][4] - The company expects a strong growth trajectory for 2025, forecasting a revenue increase of approximately 25% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q24, TSMC achieved a gross margin of 59.0%, up 6.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The operating margin was reported at 49.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4 percentage points [3][4] - The net income attributable to shareholders was $374.68 million, a 57.0% increase year-on-year [4] Revenue Guidance - For 1Q25, TSMC projects revenue between $25 billion and $25.8 billion, with a midpoint of $25.4 billion, indicating a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.5% [3] - The expected gross margin for 1Q25 is between 57% and 59%, with a midpoint of 58% [3] Advanced Process and Demand Distribution - In 4Q24, revenue from 7nm and below processes accounted for 74% of total revenue, with 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm contributing 26%, 34%, and 14% respectively [3] - The high-performance computing (HPC) segment saw a revenue increase of 19% quarter-on-quarter, representing 53% of total revenue [3] Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for 4Q24 was $11.23 billion, an increase of $4.83 billion from 3Q24 [3] - The company anticipates capital expenditures for 2025 to be between $38 billion and $42 billion, with 70% allocated to advanced processes [3] AI-Related Demand - AI-related revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 45% from 2024 to 2029 [3] - AI-related income is projected to account for about 15% of total revenue in 2024, with expectations for it to double in 2025 [3] Global Capacity Planning - TSMC's first Arizona fab using N4 technology began volume production in 4Q24, with additional fabs planned [3] - The company is also expanding its 3nm capacity in Tainan and preparing for 2nm fabs in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung [3]

Group 1: Economic Growth Overview - In Q4 2024, actual economic growth accelerated from 4.6% to 5.4%, surpassing market expectations of 5%[3] - The annual economic growth target of 5% was successfully achieved, with cumulative growth rising from 4.8% in the first three quarters to 5.0%[3] - Despite high growth, the price index (CPI) decreased, with Q4 CPI dropping from 0.5% to 0.2% and PPI declining from -1.8% to -2.57%[3] Group 2: Weaknesses in Economic Growth - Two key weaknesses identified: consumer spending inclination remains below pre-pandemic levels by over 1 percentage point, at 68.32%[18] - Real estate investment continues to drag down overall investment growth, with December fixed asset investment growth at 3.2%, down from 3.3%[18] - Manufacturing investment growth declined by 0.1 percentage points, while real estate investment fell by 0.2 percentage points in December[18] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Continued policy stimulus is essential to address the identified weaknesses in consumer spending and real estate investment[22] - New stimulus measures are necessary to accelerate the recovery of consumer spending, as the restoration of consumer inclination is a gradual process[22] - Infrastructure investment is recommended as a fast variable to offset the challenges posed by the real estate sector, with a focus on increasing funding tools for infrastructure projects[22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The industrial production sentiment is recovering, and the industrial control sector is expected to experience a cyclical rebound [1][2] - In the electric power equipment and new energy sectors, there are favorable investment opportunities due to the anticipated growth in grid investment and the increasing demand for power equipment driven by emerging industries [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections New Energy Vehicles - The battery sector is expected to see an improvement in profitability as the lithium battery supply surplus is likely to reach a turning point. The decline in lithium carbonate prices may lower battery costs and stimulate downstream demand [2] - The sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.596 million units in December 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34% [14] - The installed capacity of power batteries in December 2024 was 75.4 GWh, up 57.4% year-on-year [14] Electric Power Equipment and Energy Storage - The electric power equipment sector is poised for growth as grid investment is expected to increase significantly, driven by the need for infrastructure to support renewable energy [3] - Energy storage is projected to maintain high growth, with large-scale storage expected to benefit from improved market structures and commercial models [4] - Key investment targets include companies like Sanyuan Electric, Haixing Power, and Ningde Times [3][4] Photovoltaics - The demand for photovoltaics in Europe remains strong, and the domestic ground station demand is robust, with new technologies like TOPCON entering mass production [4] - Recommended companies in the photovoltaic sector include Trina Solar, LONGi Green Energy, and JinkoSolar [4] Industrial Control and Robotics - The industrial control sector is anticipated to enter a new cycle of equipment upgrades, supported by macroeconomic policies and a recovering manufacturing sector [6] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate, with companies like Huichuan Technology and Xusheng Group being highlighted as key players [6] Low-altitude Economy - The establishment of a dedicated department for low-altitude economic development is expected to catalyze growth in this sector, with companies like Ningde Times and Xusheng Group recommended for investment [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The essence of the current oil price cycle is supply-side dynamics, with some oil-producing countries shifting from market share competition to price support strategies. The U.S. faces production capacity bottlenecks, while OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are engaged in asymmetric negotiations to influence oil prices through production adjustments [6][7]. - The report anticipates that global oil demand will continue to grow in the medium to long term, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance, which supports high oil prices [6][7]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of January 17, 2025, Brent and WTI oil prices were $80.79 and $77.39 per barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.29% and 1.07% from the previous week [5][22]. Oil Price Outlook - The report suggests that U.S. shale oil production faces limitations due to resource degradation and cost inflation. OPEC+ has strong capabilities to maintain high oil prices through production cuts, with a voluntary reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day extended into Q1 2025 [6][7]. Offshore Drilling Services - As of January 13, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 379, a decrease of 6 from the previous week. The number of floating drilling rigs increased by 2 to 145 [27]. U.S. Oil Supply - As of January 10, 2025, U.S. oil production was 13.48 million barrels per day, down by 80,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs was 478, a decrease of 2 [29][30]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing was 16.647 million barrels per day as of January 10, 2025, down by 255,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 91.70% [31][34]. U.S. Oil Inventory - As of January 10, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventory was 807 million barrels, a decrease of 1.462 million barrels (-0.18%) from the previous week [40].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The essence of the current oil price cycle is supply-side dynamics, with some oil-producing countries shifting from market share competition to price support strategies. The U.S. is facing production capacity bottlenecks, while OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are engaged in asymmetric negotiations to influence oil prices through production adjustments. The report anticipates that oil prices will remain at mid-to-high levels in the medium to long term due to ongoing supply constraints and increasing demand for oil amid energy transitions [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of January 17, 2025, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI prices at $80.79 and $77.39 per barrel, respectively. The EIA's monthly report raised U.S. and global supply forecasts, but a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories and new sanctions on Russia have impacted supply dynamics [5][22]. Oil Price Outlook - The report suggests that U.S. shale oil production faces long-term growth limitations due to resource degradation and rising costs. OPEC+ has extended voluntary production cuts, maintaining a strong capacity to influence prices. Despite economic slowdowns and energy transitions, global oil demand is expected to grow over the next 3-5 years, leading to sustained high oil prices [6][7][8]. Offshore Drilling Services - As of January 13, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 379, a decrease of 6 from the previous week. The number of floating drilling rigs increased by 2 to 145 [27]. U.S. Crude Oil Supply - As of January 10, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.48 million barrels per day, a decrease of 80,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs was 478, down by 2 [29][30]. U.S. Crude Oil Demand - As of January 10, 2025, U.S. refinery crude oil processing was 16.647 million barrels per day, down by 255,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 91.70% [31]. U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - As of January 10, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventories were 807 million barrels, a decrease of 1.462 million barrels (-0.18%) from the previous week. Strategic reserves increased by 500,000 barrels (+0.13%) [40].

- The report introduces the dividend point forecast for stock index futures contracts, predicting the dividend points for CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices as 83.37, 89.04, 72.62, and 66.69 respectively for the next year[6][8][13][15] - The methodology for dividend point prediction is based on the approach outlined in the "Cinda Financial Engineering Derivatives Research Report Series II"[6] - The report explains the adjustment of basis for stock index futures contracts, where the annualized basis is calculated as: $ Annualized Basis = (Actual Basis + (Expected) Dividend Points) / Index Price × 360 / Remaining Days of Contract $[17] - The IC contract's dividend-adjusted annualized basis fluctuated during the week, with a current discount of 3.51%, showing an upward trend compared to the previous week[18] - The IF contract's dividend-adjusted annualized basis declined during the week, with a current discount of 0.16%, showing a downward trend compared to the previous week[22] - The IH contract's dividend-adjusted annualized basis increased during the week, with a current premium of 1.41%, showing an upward trend compared to the previous week[27] - The IM contract's dividend-adjusted annualized basis fluctuated during the week, with a current discount of 6.02%, showing an upward trend compared to the previous week[33] - The report evaluates the performance of hedging strategies for stock index futures contracts, including continuous hedging and minimum discount strategies, with parameters such as annualized return, volatility, maximum drawdown, and net value provided for CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices[42][47][50][53] - The Cinda-VIX index reflects market expectations of future volatility for major indices, with 30-day VIX values reported as 23.52 for SSE 50, 23.65 for CSI 300, 34.78 for CSI 500, and 35.24 for CSI 1000[56] - The Cinda-SKEW index captures the skewness of implied volatility for different strike prices, with values reported as 95.22 for SSE 50, 97.05 for CSI 300, 98.08 for CSI 500, and 100.16 for CSI 1000[63]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The coal supply is expected to stabilize with a projected production of 4.76 billion tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, while imports are anticipated to reach 540 million tons, up 10.9% year-on-year [11][13] - The report emphasizes that the coal price floor has been established, with market prices expected to remain above 800 CNY/ton, and long-term contracts around 700 CNY/ton, indicating a resilient demand for coal [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of January 17, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 760 CNY/ton, down 7 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][31] - The international thermal coal price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) remains stable at 89.8 USD/ton [3][31] 2. Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 97%, down 0.6 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization for coking coal is 87.55%, down 1.1 percentage points [4][11] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 30.90 thousand tons/day, a decline of 7.17% week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw a reduction of 14.00 thousand tons/day, down 6.59% [4][11] 3. Coal Inventory Situation - As of January 16, coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 52.20 thousand tons, a 1.50% decline week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight decrease of 8.50 thousand tons, down 0.09% [4][11] 4. Company Performance - The report highlights that major coal companies are showing confidence through share buybacks and increased holdings, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [11][12] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividend yields, with a focus on companies like China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and others for potential investment opportunities [12][13]

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 联系电话：13261695353 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：临近春节假期， 织企端需求逐步萎缩 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 1 月 19 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 1 月 17 日当周，国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2357.48 元/吨，环比变化+15.93 元/吨（+0.68%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 913.97 元/吨，环比变化+9.40 元 ...