证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 03 月 28 日 友讯达（300514.SZ） 电力计量产品量利齐升，数智产品助力新质成长 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 增持（首次评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,022 | 1,097 | 1,428 | 1,694 | 1,956 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 18.0 | 7.4 | 30.2 | 18.6 | 15.5 | | | | 归母净利润（百万元） 增长率 （ ） | 99 | 1 ...

事件：公司披露 2023 年年报，全年实现营业收入 235.39 亿元，同比增长 18.60%；归母净利润 11.79 亿元，同比增长 1.43%；扣非净利润 8.74 亿元， 同比下降 4.72%。对此点评如下： 全年新签订单稳步增长，Q4 大订单占比同比提升。2023 年公司新签合同额 达 297.12 亿元，同比增长 18.25%。其中 Q4 新签合同额 67.91 亿元，同比 增长 22.16%，环比下降 13.64%。Q4 新签大订单（合同金额达到 1 亿元以 上或钢结构加工量在 1 万吨以上）数量为 17 个，总金额 15.57 亿元，占比 22.93%。而 2022 年 Q4 新签大订单数量为 13 个，总金额 11.29 亿元，占比 20.31%。产量方面，2023 年公司钢结构产量约 448.80 万吨，同比增长 28.40%。其中 Q4 产量为 125.59 万吨，同比增长 21.37%，环比增长 11.26%。 -57% -48% -39% -30% -21% -12% -3% 6% 2023-04 2023-08 2023-12 2024-03 鸿路钢构 沪深300 分析师 花 江月 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 03月 28日 淮北矿业（600985.SH） 区域焦企龙头业绩稳健，深化煤化工业务布局 财务指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 增持（维持评级） 营业收入（百万元） 69,062 73,387 74,242 75,515 77,012 股票信息 增长率yoy（%） 5.5 6.3 1.2 1.7 2.0 归母净利润（百万元） 7,011 6,225 6,651 7,134 7,925 行业 煤炭 增长率yoy（%） 42.8 -11.2 6.9 7.3 11.1 2024年3月28日收盘价（元） 16.38 ROE（%） 18.8 14.3 14.9 14.3 14.0 总市值（百万元） 43,436.26 EPS最新摊薄（元） 2.83 2.51 2.68 2.88 3.19 流通市值（百万元） 43,436.26 P/E（倍） 5.7 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.0 总股本（百万股） 2,651.79 P/B（倍） 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 流通股本（百万股） 2,651.79 资料来源：公司财报，长城证券产业金融 ...

3、《23Q2 业绩符合预期，关注旺季需求及 B 端拓展》 欢乐家（300997.SZ） 椰子汁修复较好，水果罐头双位数增长。分行业看，2023 年公司饮料行业、 罐头行业、其他行业分别实现营收 11.43 亿元、7.58 亿元、0.22亿元，同比 分别增长 22.21%、16.92%、74.67%，其中椰子汁饮料、水果罐头分别实现 营收 10.0 亿元、7.09 亿元，同比分别增长 24.37%、17.49%；分产品看， 1.25L PET 瓶装椰子汁和 245ml 蓝彩铁罐装椰子汁合计占公司椰子汁饮料营 业收入的 75.52%，合计同比增长 24.50%；橘子罐头实现营收 1.96 亿元， 同比增长 6.65%，黄桃罐头实现营收 2.97 亿元，同比增长 50.12%，二者合 计占公司水果罐头营收的 69.6%。 2024 年重点工作将保持终端网点开拓，深化渠道多元化，完善产品矩阵。 一是持续开拓终端网点，24 年末力争扩充至 100 万家网点，主要在传统优势 区域进一步深耕下沉，同时空白市场扩展，我们预计终端增网点、铺陈列的 市场工作有利于保证公司基本盘的稳健增长；二是渠道多元化，积极拥抱如 零食专营连 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [32]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of approximately 6.695 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 345 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 87.57% [21][9]. - The cross-border social e-commerce business showed strong performance, with revenue reaching 4.257 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 37.02%, and a gross margin of 63.31% [6][9]. - The company has developed several AI-driven e-commerce models, including ChatGiiKin-6B for product selection and G-king for intelligent advertising, enhancing operational efficiency and advertising precision [10][2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 6.695 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.434 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.5% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 345 million yuan in 2023 to 648 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [6]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 14.4% in 2023 to 16.6% in 2026, indicating improving profitability [6][14]. Industry Context - The Southeast Asian e-commerce market is identified as one of the fastest-growing segments globally, and the company is positioned as a leading player in cross-border social e-commerce in this region [6]. - The report highlights the company's long-term partnerships with major fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands, contributing to stable revenue growth in its packaging solutions business [5][11].

可立克（002782.SZ） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------|----------| | | | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 买入（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 3,268 | 4,668 | 5,858 | 7,147 | 8,577 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 98.2 | 42.9 | 25.5 | 22.0 | 20.0 | | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 111 | 114 | 246 | 348 | 451 | 行业 | 电子 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 323.7 | 2.4 | 116.3 | 41.3 | 29.5 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 04月 02日 中芯国际（688981.SH） 手机及电脑新产品需求回升，指引 24 年营收同比增长中个位数 财务指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 买入（维持评级） 营业收入（百万元） 49,516 45,250 48,128 53,201 60,633 股票信息 增长率yoy（%） 39.0 -8.6 6.4 10.5 14.0 归母净利润（百万元） 12,133 4,823 4,784 5,189 5,809 行业 电子 增长率yoy（%） 13.0 -60.3 -0.8 8.5 11.9 2024年4月1日收盘价（元） 44.30 ROE（%） 7.3 2.9 2.4 2.5 2.7 总市值（百万元） 352,128.42 EPS最新摊薄（元） 1.53 0.61 0.60 0.65 0.73 流通市值（百万元） 87,430.89 P/E（倍） 28.8 72.5 73.1 67.4 60.2 总股本（百万股） 7,948.72 P/B（倍） 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 流通股本（百万股） 1,973.61 资料 ...

Company Analysis - The company's gross margin has declined in the short term due to the impact of Temu, but the control of period expenses remains at a reasonable level [2][3] - In 2023, the company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 678.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 27%, down 2.86 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Temu's warehousing and logistics systems are in the construction phase, with significant room for optimization in the future [13] Industry Analysis - The e-commerce industry has entered an era of stock competition, with "low price" becoming the core of competition [7] - The growth rate of China's online retail sales of physical goods has gradually slowed down, with the penetration rate of online retail sales reaching 27.61% by the end of 2023, up 0.40 percentage points from the end of 2022 [10] - The e-commerce industry's growth rate has diverged, with live-streaming e-commerce maintaining a growth rate significantly higher than the industry average, and its market share continues to increase [22] Temu's Development and Optimization - Temu has entered 51 countries and regions by March 2024, maintaining a high level of investment, and is expected to maintain high growth in traffic and GMV [32] - Temu's logistics system is in the construction phase, with significant room for optimization in the future, which can improve consumer shopping experience and reduce logistics costs [13] - Temu has partnered with major shipping companies to reduce logistics costs by 30-60% through sea freight, which can enhance profitability while maintaining low prices [14] - Temu plans to build overseas warehouses in the US to improve logistics efficiency and reduce costs, which will help solve the issue of warehouse overcapacity and improve delivery times [15] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 3574 billion yuan in 2024 to 5781 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit attributable to the parent company projected to be 791/1106/1530 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, respectively [37][41] - Temu's GMV is expected to grow from 175 billion USD in 2023 to 808 billion USD in 2026, with revenue projected to increase from 72 billion USD in 2023 to 331 billion USD in 2026 [33][34] - The company's gross margin is expected to decline in the short term due to the rising proportion of Temu's revenue but is projected to recover as Temu's scale increases and logistics costs decrease [38] Competitive Landscape - Pinduoduo's market share is expected to reach 21.2% in 2023, surpassing JD.com's 20.4% and becoming the second-largest e-commerce platform in China [28] - The e-commerce industry is experiencing intensified competition, with "low price" becoming the focus of all platforms, and Pinduoduo's user base and traffic advantages have built a solid moat [28][72] - Pinduoduo's domestic main site is expected to maintain stable growth, with its user and merchant barriers being relatively solid, and the company's future growth drivers include the main site, Duoduo Maicai, and Temu [75][76]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates steady growth and continues to enhance its core business competitiveness [1] - The company's 2023 revenue reached 4,780 million yuan, a 7.50% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,031 million yuan, up 34.90% year-on-year [1] - The company's 2024 revenue is expected to reach 5,291 million yuan, a 10.7% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 1,143 million yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The company's ROE increased from 13.6% in 2022 to 16.1% in 2023, and is expected to remain stable around 16% in the coming years [1] - The company's EPS increased from 0.55 yuan in 2022 to 0.74 yuan in 2023, and is expected to reach 0.82 yuan in 2024 [1] - The company's P/E ratio decreased from 35.6x in 2022 to 26.4x in 2023, and is expected to further decline to 23.8x in 2024 [1] Business Segments - The aerospace new materials business achieved revenue of 4,671 million yuan in 2023, a 7.20% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in aerospace composite materials and brake products [2] - The equipment business achieved revenue of 661.80 million yuan in 2023, primarily due to a decline in machine tool products [2] - The aerospace new materials business contributed 1,097 million yuan to net profit, a 33.20% year-on-year increase, while the equipment business reduced losses by 28.51 million yuan [2] Profitability and R&D - The company's gross profit margin increased by 5.81 percentage points to 36.75% in 2023, and the net profit margin increased by 4.45 percentage points to 21.71% [2] - R&D expenses reached 176 million yuan in 2023, a 7.46% year-on-year increase, with significant progress in aerospace composite materials and new material industrialization [2] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve 5,000 million yuan in revenue and 1,282 million yuan in total profit for 2024 [3] - The aerospace new materials business is targeting 4,912 million yuan in revenue and 1,370 million yuan in total profit for 2024 [5] - The equipment business is targeting 730 million yuan in revenue and a loss of 15 million yuan in total profit for 2024 [5] Investment Recommendation - The company is a leader in the aerospace composite materials sector and is expected to benefit from the development of domestic large aircraft and low-altitude economy [5] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow steadily, reaching 1,143 million yuan in 2024, 1,356 million yuan in 2025, and 1,616 million yuan in 2026 [5]

南芯科技（688484.SH） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------|-----------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | | 2025E | 2026E | 买入（上调评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,301 | 1,780 | 2,350 | | 3,060 | 3,981 | | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 32.2 | 36.9 | 32.0 | | 30.2 | 30.1 | 股票信息 | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 246 | 261 | 350 | | 478 | 598 | 行业 | 电子 | | 增长率 ...