[b_Suy 今日预览 【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】 固收肖雨：减资清偿，对转债影响几何？ 证券研究报告 2024 年 7 月 31 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbl师lee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email： 电话： 今日重点>> 【固收】肖雨：减资清偿，对转债影响几何？ 【汽车】何俊艺：重卡研究框架 2024 版：内销总量探讨——可以乐观起来 研究分享>> 【固收】肖雨：关注政策落地节奏——7 月 PMI 数据点评 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 今日重点 ►【固收】肖雨：减资清偿，对转债影响几何？ 肖雨｜中泰固收行业负责人 S0740520110001 近月减资清偿事件较多，且上市公司应对减资清偿的方式也有新突破，我们梳理了上市公司如何应 对减资清偿的案例，以及分析了减资清偿对转债的影响，以供投资者参考。 上市公司减资应当通知债权人，债权人有权要求公司清偿债务或提供相应担保。流程上，政策规定， 发行人减资、合并等可能导致偿债能力发生重大不利变化，需要决定或者授权采取相应措施 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the heavy-duty truck (HDT) industry, suggesting a positive investment rating [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of studying sales volume as it drives major market trends [2] - It predicts that domestic HDT sales could reach 980,000 units by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% from 2025 to 2029 [2] - The report highlights the investment opportunities in the HDT industry chain [2] Sales Volume Analysis - Historical market trends in the HDT industry have been driven by sales volume or sales expectations, such as the 2009-2010, 2016-2021, and 2022-2024 market cycles [5] - The stability of the HDT industry structure means that sales volume directly impacts company revenues and profitability [7] - The report suggests that the current sales volume is at the bottom of the central range, with potential for growth due to upcoming replacement cycles and possible policy changes [44] Sales Volume Research Methodology - The report proposes using the stock of HDTs (保有量) as a starting point for sales volume research, estimating a central range of 600,000 to 750,000 units based on an 8-10 year replacement cycle [11][29] - The steady-state stock of HDTs is estimated at 600,000 units (500,000 logistics + 100,000 engineering), with a sales volume central range of 60,000 to 75,000 units [29] - The 8-10 year replacement cycle is validated by historical data, showing that the current stock of HDTs is roughly equal to the sum of sales over the past 8-10 years [31] Sales Volume Outlook - The report is optimistic about future sales, citing the current low sales volume, potential for policy changes (e.g., Phase IV emission standards), and the upcoming replacement cycle [44] - It predicts that domestic HDT sales could reach 980,000 units by 2029, with a CAGR of 10% from 2025 to 2029 [45] Industry Chain Investment Opportunities - Key companies in the HDT industry chain include Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (Sinotruk), FAW Jiefang, Foton Motor, and Tianrun Industrial Technology [3] - Weichai Power is the leading HDT engine supplier, with a 28.7% market share in June 2024 [49] - Sinotruk is the top HDT exporter, with a 47% market share in 2023 [51] - FAW Jiefang is the domestic sales leader, with an 18% market share in June 2024 [55] - Foton Motor is a top commercial vehicle brand, consistently ranking first in the industry for 19 years [58] - Tianrun Industrial Technology is the leading HDT crankshaft supplier, with a 60% market share in China [60]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 26.03 CNY per share [1][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.691 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.43%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 368 million CNY, up 43.82% year-over-year [5]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue reach 1.432 billion CNY, marking a year-over-year increase of 9.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 13.78%. The net profit for this quarter was 198 million CNY, up 12.84% year-over-year [5]. - The company is benefiting from strong growth in its communications and consumer electronics businesses, as well as from new product introductions in the automotive electronics sector [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total shares outstanding: 806 million - Circulating shares: 756 million - Market capitalization: 20,988 million CNY - Circulating market capitalization: 19,691 million CNY [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects revenues to grow from 5.04 billion CNY in 2023 to 6.194 billion CNY in 2024, with a projected net profit of 873 million CNY for 2024 [7]. - The projected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is 1.117 billion CNY and 1.4 billion CNY, respectively [7]. Business Growth Drivers - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for power inductors in AI applications, automotive electronics, and photovoltaic energy storage [6]. - The automotive electronics segment has seen significant growth due to the company's early investments in electric and intelligent vehicle applications, covering major global automotive clients [6]. - Emerging markets such as data centers and photovoltaic storage are also contributing to the company's growth, with new product developments and market expansions planned [6].

证券研究报告/固定收益点评 2024 年 7 月 31 日 Email：xiaoyu@zts.com.cn Email：youyong@zts.com.cn ◼ 进入夏季用电高峰期，本月能源与燃料加工行业与下游消费品行业景气度回升。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 投资要点 执业证书编号：S0740520110001 执业证书编号：S0740524070004 ◼ 2024 年 7 月，官方制造业 PMI、非制造业 PMI（商务活动指数）与综合 PMI 产出指数 分别为 49.4%、50.2%和 50.2%，环比分别下降 0.1、0.3 和 0.3 个百分点。 制造业 PMI 连续第三个月位于收缩区间，环比持平于疫情前。7 月制造业 PMI 为 49.4%， 略高于 WIND 统计的市场一致预期值 49.25%。较上月下降-0.1 个百分点，持平于疫情 前（2015-2019 年同期），高于过去三年同期（-0.5 个百分点）。 制造业 PMI 的疲软，可能与高温洪涝灾害极端天气异常天气有关。国家统计局表示"因 传统生产淡季、市场需求不足以及局部地区高温洪涝灾害极端天气等因素对企业生产经 营的影响，……景气水 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the next 6-12 months [2][38][134]. Core Insights - The company, Huaihe Energy, is positioned as a leader in the coal and electricity integration sector in Anhui Province, benefiting from low-cost power generation and strong growth potential [2][4]. - The company has a robust operational structure with significant contributions from logistics, coal, and electricity sectors, with logistics trade accounting for approximately 67% of revenue [2][47]. - The integration of coal and electricity operations provides a competitive edge, with stable coal supply from its own mines, leading to lower costs and improved profitability [4][69]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huaihe Energy has evolved from a logistics company to a comprehensive energy provider, with significant investments in coal and electricity generation [2][43]. - The company has a total installed capacity of 4,910 MW, with plans to increase this to 7,550 MW through the addition of new power plants [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 840 million yuan in 2023, a 142% increase year-on-year, with earnings per share rising to 0.22 yuan [2][27]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 28.003 billion yuan, 28.401 billion yuan, and 33.842 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.047 billion yuan, 1.137 billion yuan, and 2.022 billion yuan [2][38]. Growth Drivers - The company benefits from a strong coal supply from its parent company, Huainan Mining, which has a coal production capacity of 77.9 million tons per year [2][88]. - The construction of new power plants, including the Panji Phase II and Xieqiao plants, is expected to significantly enhance the company's revenue and profit margins [2][14][79]. Market Conditions - The electricity demand in Anhui Province remains high, with coal-fired power generation being the primary source of energy, providing a favorable environment for the company's growth [2][83]. - The stable pricing of coal under long-term contracts helps maintain cost efficiency and profitability for the company [2][120]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain high utilization rates for its power plants, with average annual utilization hours projected at 4,549 to 4,759 hours from 2024 to 2026 [5][99]. - The anticipated increase in installed capacity and stable coal prices are expected to drive significant revenue growth in the coming years [2][38].

乘用车销量全面上行：截至 7 月 21 日的一周，乘用车批发日均销量为 5.63 万辆，周 环比上升 55.12%，月初至今同比下降 50.79%，乘用车零售日均销量为 5.09 万辆，周 环比上升 17.57%，月初至今同比下降 31.08%。 执业证书编号：S0740520110001 Email：xueyao@zts.com.cn 价格：食品价格整体上行，上游产品价格全面下行。食品价格整体上行：截至 7 月 29 日，猪肉、羊肉、白条鸡、28 种重点监测蔬菜、7 种重点监测水果平均批发价周环比 分别上升 1.00%、0.39%、0.23%、2.05%、2.41%，牛肉、鸡蛋平均批发价周环比分 别下降 1.39%、1.10%。大宗商品价格全面下行：截至 7 月 29 日，原油期货价格全面 下行，布伦特原油期货结算价周环比下降 3.18%，WTI 原油期货结算价周环比下降 3.3 0%。有色期货价格全面下行，LME3 个月铜价格周环比下降 2.29%、LME3 个月铝价 格周环比下降 2.92%。工业品价格全面下行：截至 7 月 29 日，南华工业品指数、长江 有色市场铜、长江有色市场铝、螺纹钢、水泥价格指 ...

[投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 第一，对当前所面临的问题有些新提法。会议指出，当前外部环境带来的不 利影响增多，国内有效需求不足，经济运行出现分化，重点领域风险隐患仍然 较多，新旧动能转换存在阵痛。政治局会议层面看，"经济运行出现分化"和 "新旧动能转换存在阵痛"，应该都是新提法。 [Table_Main] [Table_Title] 分析师：张德礼 ◼ 每年以经济为主题的政治局会议中，7 月召开的这次可能是关注度最高的。 根据上半年的经济运行情况，为下半年政策定调。和往年不同的是，今年 7 月 召开了第二十届三中全会，全会对下半年的经济工作做了部署，强调"坚定不 移实现全年经济社会发展目标"、"积极扩大国内需求"。因此，市场对 7 月政 治局会议的基调已有所预期。 ◼ 最近几年国内对"K"型复苏讨论得比较多，这在生产和需求、内需和外需、 低端消费和高端消费、工业消费品和服务消费等之间的分化上都有体现。政 治局会议首提"经济运行出现分化"，未来在总量政策之外，可能会通过更聚 焦的结构性政策，来缩小各种分化。 ◼ 本次政治局会议认为这些是发展中、转型中的问题，也做了相应部署。比如 扩大国内需求要以 ...

黄金 ETF 持仓增加、大宗继续去库，短期波动不改上行趋势 行业评级：增持（维持） 投资要点 分析师：郭中伟 执业证书编号：S0740521110004 Email：guozw@zts.com.cn 分析师：谢鸿鹤 执业证书编号：S0740517080003 Email：xiehh@zts.com.cn 分析师：刘耀齐 执业证书编号：S0740523080004 Email：liuyq@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈沁一 执业证书编号：S0740523090001 Email：chenqy01@zts.com.cn 基本状况 | --- | --- | |--------------------|-----------| | 上市公司数 | 131 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 25,104.67 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 22,175.97 | 行业-市场走势对比 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 2023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052 ...

[Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：184.53 元 153.08 分析师：曾彪 执业证书编号：S0740522020001 Email：zengbiao@zts.com.cn 分析师：朱柏睿 执业证书编号：S0740522080002 Email：zhubr@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | --- | --- | |--------------------|---------| | 总股本（百万股） | 4,399 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3,895 | | 市价（元） | 184.53 | | 市值（百万元） | 811,712 | | 流通市值（百万元） | 718,717 | [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市场走势对比 2023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-06 宁德时代 沪深300 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 公司持有该股票比例 相关报告 24 年上半年业绩符合 ...

药明康德（603259.SH）/医药生物 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 07 月 30 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------------------------|----------------|---------------|----------------|-----------------|----------------| | 市场价格：39.00 元 | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | 营业收入（百万元） | 39354.78 | 40340.81 | 39403.85 | 43631.07 | 49615.55 | | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 | 增长率 yoy% 净利润（百万元） | 71.84% 8813.71 ...