证券研究报告/周度策略 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 [Table_Main] [Table_Title] 分析师：张德礼 执业证书编号：S0740523040001 相关报告 - [要点Table_Summary] ◼ 2024 年 6 月，以美元计价的中国出口同比为 8.6%，前值 7.6%，明显高于 市场预期值（7.4%）；进口同比为-2.3%，前值 1.8%，明显低于市场预期 值（4.2%）。6 月中国进出口数据显示，年初以来外需强于内需的结构性特 征仍在延续。 ◼ 从主要产品来看，机电产品 6 月出口当月同比 8.0%，与 5 月的 7.8%相比 小幅回升。劳动密集型产品方面，当月出口同比从 5月的2.2%下滑到0.5%， 可能是受到了降价的拖累。 ◼ 今年上半年，中国机电产品出口累计同比 4.9%。其中，船舶出口累计同比 85.2%，除了反映中国在船舶制造领域的产能优势外，也能体现出中国出 口结构逐渐向中高端装备制造转型，产业结构在优化升级。上半年集成电 路出口累计同比 21.6%，明显高于机电产品出口和整体出口的增速，源于 半导体行业处于新一轮上升周期中。上半年汽车（包括底盘）出口累计同 比 18.9%，其中新能源 ...

本次电话会议服务于中泰证券正式签约客户为非公开交流活动 未经中泰证券授权请勿对外传播本次会议的内容包括但不限于视频音频文字记录内容等信息感谢您的理解与配合中泰证券对违反上述要求的行为保留追究法律责任的权利市场有风险投资需谨慎本会议信息仅供参考不代表任何投资建议本公司不对任何人因使用本会议中的信息所引致的任何损失负担任何责任 诶 曾老师可以开始发言了 目前还没有听到你那边声音 各位参会者请稍等曾老师这边的设备正在调适中现在正在入会大家各位稍等现在听到了吗现在听到了吗现在听到了吗曾老师现在可以听到您可以把电脑的声音给关掉一下然后用手机来发言刚才稍微有一点回应现在 抱歉就是刚才音频介入有点问题其实我首先就是汇报一下最近推荐的一些板块户处这个行业大家肯定不陌生那么22年他非常惊艳那么但是就是我聊下来的话经济力层面对于户处这个行业 那么有一点好的印象就是它的降价频次降价幅度不明显那么它的格局不容易被破坏它有一些品牌的认知度和粘性那么它的毛利率均利率很高它即便是面临着就是二三年欧洲那么大的库存的危机库存压力那么它也体现了自己的盈利的这一个趋于性那么尤其是在毛利率这一块 在单位的这一个盈利这一块那么大家对这一点上是觉得是一 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [10] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain strong growth driven by its dual business segments: photovoltaic (PV) brackets and high-speed connectors [12] - The PV bracket business benefits from robust global demand for solar installations, with overseas production capacity expansion enhancing profitability [4] - The high-speed connector business is recovering, supported by AI-driven demand for high-speed communication products [20] - The company is one of the few domestic players capable of mass-producing high-speed connectors, with a competitive edge in the market [20] Financial Performance and Forecast Revenue and Profit Growth - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 5,059 million in 2023 to RMB 9,911 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 25% [1] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 122 million in 2023 to RMB 598 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 70% [1] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.63 in 2023 to RMB 3.08 in 2026 [1] Profitability Metrics - ROE is expected to improve from 7% in 2023 to 19% in 2026 [1] - Net profit margin is projected to increase from 1.8% in 2023 to 6.1% in 2026 [17] Valuation Metrics - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 64.4 in 2023 to 13.2 in 2026, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [1] - P/B ratio is forecasted to decrease from 4.5 in 2023 to 2.5 in 2026 [1] Business Segments Photovoltaic (PV) Bracket Business - The company has established a strong presence in the global PV bracket market, with partnerships with leading North American and European manufacturers [4] - Overseas production facilities in Thailand and the US help mitigate tariff risks and enhance cost efficiency [4] - Global PV installations are expected to grow from 390GW in 2023 to 512-587GW by 2030, providing significant growth opportunities [4] High-Speed Connector Business - The company is a leading domestic player in high-speed connectors, with products like SFP, SFP+, and QSFP56/QSFP-DD 200G/400G connectors [20] - AI-driven demand for high-speed communication products is expected to boost growth, with the market moving towards 56G-112G-224G standards [20] - The company has established partnerships with major clients like Huawei and ZTE, and is well-positioned to benefit from the automotive connector market [20] Operational Highlights - The company's Q2 2024 performance showed strong growth, with non-GAAP net profit increasing by 74.48% YoY and 1.9% QoQ [13] - The US PV bracket factory is in the ramp-up phase, with orders gradually being fulfilled, contributing to improved profitability [13] - The company's gross margin improved slightly in Q1 2024, reaching 17.8%, with net profit margin increasing to 5.85% [13] Industry Outlook - The global PV market is expected to maintain strong growth, with US and European installations projected to increase significantly in the coming years [4] - The high-speed connector market is poised for growth, driven by AI and data center demand, with the company well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [20]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report focuses on identifying the downward boundary for the perpetual bonds of city and rural commercial banks, emphasizing the need for a balance between liquidity and yield [2] - The analysis utilizes an entropy weight method to objectively quantify the weight of 35 indicators, reducing evaluation bias due to insufficient indicators or subjective weighting [2] - The scoring model assesses 313 commercial banks, including state-owned and joint-stock banks, to validate the effectiveness of the evaluation system [2] Group 2: Scoring Framework - Asset quality is analyzed through asset, loan quality, and customer loan ratios, revealing significant tiered differentiation in asset scale among sample banks [2] - Liability quality focuses on five indicators, with most banks showing high ratios of deposits, time deposits, and loan-to-deposit ratios [2] - Profitability evaluation includes net interest margin, non-interest income ratio, return on assets, equity multiplier, and cost-to-income ratio, with strong banks excelling in different areas [2] Group 3: Risk Assessment and Governance - Credit risk is assessed using capital adequacy ratio, core tier one capital adequacy ratio, provision coverage ratio, and liquidity ratio, indicating that most banks meet regulatory standards [2] - Company governance is evaluated from the perspectives of information disclosure and regulatory compliance, with state-owned banks performing better than city and rural commercial banks [2] - Shareholder background analysis shows high concentration of ownership among the top ten shareholders, with lower proportions of state-owned and government shareholders [2] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Three bond selection strategies are proposed: focusing on fundamentals for 3-5 year bonds, prioritizing liquidity for 1-3 year bonds, and increasing downward pressure for bonds under 1 year [2] - The report recommends 13 secondary capital bonds and 10 perpetual bonds based on a descending order of yield and the application of the three selection strategies [4]

通胀加速回落，降息还远吗？——美国 6 月通胀数据点评 证券研究报告/固定收益点评 2024 年 7 月 12 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 分析师：肖雨 执业证书编号：S0740520110001 Email：xiaoyu@zts.com.cn 研究助理：游勇 ◼ 2024 年 6 月，美国 CPI 同比 3.0%，低于前值 3.3%与预期 3.1%；核心 CPI 同比 3.3%， 低于前值 3.4 和预期 3.5%。 6 月美国通胀超预期降温，CPI 与核心 CPI 保持下行趋势。CPI 与核心 CPI 均超预期回 落。趋势上，本月 CPI 同比连续 3 个月回落；核心 CPI 同比延续了连续 14 个月的下行 趋势。环比口径下，CPI 与核心 CPI 增速自今年 3 月以来持续下降。 构成 CPI 的 8 大分项中，交通运输与住房通胀对 6 月通胀下行的解释力超过 100%。交 通运输价格与能源高度相关，6 月同比 1.3%，较 5 月大幅下行 1.6 个百分点，贡献了 6 月同比增速环比降幅的 86.7%。权重最高的住房分项，6 月通胀虽处高位，但趋势走弱， 也贡献 ...

业绩预告符合预期,Q2 维持高增态势 东阿阿胶(000423.SZ)/中 药证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 07 月 11 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级:买入(维持) [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | |------------------------------------------|--------------------|---------------------|----------------|----------------|------------------| | 市场价格:56.32 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师:祝嘉琦 | 4041.82 | 4715.27 | 5776.35 | 6874.38 | 8084.62 | | 执业证书编号:S0740519040001 | 5.01% 780.00 | 16.66% 1150.88 | 22.50% 1452.39 | 19.01% 1748.45 | 17.61%2100.08 ...

中国通信服务(0552.HK)/通信 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2024 年 7 月 11 日 2[Table_Industry] 算网基建龙头,重视回报 提升 派息率 [Table_ 评级:买入(首次) Invest] [Table_Finance1] 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | |------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|----------------------|--------------------------------|---------------------------------|-----------------------|------------------------------| | 市场价格:4.43 港元 | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | [Table_ 分析师:陈宁玉 Authors] | 营业收入(百万元) 增长率 yoy% | 141,20 ...

[Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：48.69 元 ◼ 公告摘要：公司发布 2024 年半年度业绩预告，预计报告期内实现归母净利润 约 2 亿元，同比扭亏为盈，扣非后归母净利润约 1.84 亿元，同比扭亏为盈。 投资要点 公司点评 下游需求修复，盈利能力显著改善 [Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 14,230 13,861 17,414 21,343 25,673 增长率 yoy% 26% -3% 26% 23% 20% 净利润（百万元） 623 91 604 779 944 增长率 yoy% 74% -85% 565% 29% 21% 每股收益（元） 2.35 0.34 2.28 2.94 3.57 每股现金流量 1.90 3.92 4.00 0.68 7.19 净资产收益率 17% 3% 14% 16% 16% P/E 20.7 142.0 21.3 16.5 13.6 PEG 0.3 -1.7 0.0 0.6 0.6 P/B 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.2 备注：股价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [10][13]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve revenue of 2.4 to 2.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.72% to 32%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 310 to 330 million yuan, with a growth rate of 26.18% to 34.32% [19]. - The company is focusing on seven core product categories, including spicy snacks and deep-sea snacks, to drive revenue growth. It is enhancing its supply chain and product offerings to meet diverse consumer needs [19]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for future growth, driven by continuous channel expansion and new product launches, with expectations for revenue to reach 5.32 billion yuan in 2024 and net profit to reach 666 million yuan [19]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Revenue (in million yuan): 4,115 in 2023, projected to grow to 5,323 in 2024, 6,610 in 2025, and 8,073 in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 29%, 24%, and 22% respectively [8]. - Net Profit (in million yuan): 506 in 2023, projected to grow to 666 in 2024, 851 in 2025, and 1,070 in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 68%, 32%, 28%, and 26% respectively [8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is expected to increase from 2.58 in 2024 to 5.46 in 2026 [8]. - The company anticipates a decrease in production costs due to lower prices for certain raw materials, although increased share-based payment expenses may pressure profits in the short term [19].