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Huge boost in short run growth with high yield
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-13 05:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xtep with a new target price of HK$7.63, reflecting a 40.4% upside from the current price of HK$5.43 [4][7]. Core Views - The strategic disposal of K&P is expected to enhance short-term growth and improve cash flow, leading to a revision of FY24E-26E net profit estimates upwards by 2% to 5% [2][7]. - The valuation remains attractive at 10x FY24E P/E, compared to an 8-year average of 15x, alongside a 14% dividend yield for FY24E [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB 15,371 million, with a growth forecast of 10.1% for FY26E [3][9]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,464.3 million in FY24E to RMB 2,557.2 million by FY26E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from RMB 912.3 million in FY24E to RMB 1,775.7 million in FY26E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3]. Earnings Revision - The report revises FY24E net profit to RMB 1,275 million, FY25E to RMB 1,479 million, and FY26E to RMB 1,763 million, with respective growth rates of 3.6%, 2.2%, and 4.6% [8][9]. - Gross margin is expected to remain stable around 42.3% for FY24E, while EBIT margin is projected to improve to 14.1% by FY25E [8]. Market Performance - Xtep's stock has shown a 39.9% increase over the past three months, outperforming the market [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of HK$14,307.2 million, with significant shareholding by Mr. Ding Shui Po and family at 49% [5].
第 1 季度上线 ; AI 服务器 / 网络和 AirPods 在 2H24E 升级方面取得积极进展
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-13 05:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for FIT Hon Teng with a target price of HKD 2.40, reflecting a 23.1% upside from the current price of HKD 1.95 [2][10]. Core Insights - FIT Hon Teng reported a solid Q1 performance, aligning with positive profit warnings and management expectations. The company reiterated its FY24E guidance, projecting a year-over-year revenue decline in the low double digits, a gross profit margin (GPM) increase, and an operating profit margin (OPM) of 5.5% [1][10]. - The recent stock adjustment is viewed as profit-taking after a 101% increase over the past three months, with an optimistic outlook for 2H24E driven by growth in AirPods, integration of Voltaira's automotive electronics business, and successful orders for AI server/network products [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 revenue reached USD 965.06 million, a 12% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of USD 10.2 million, compared to a loss of USD 9.3 million in Q1 of the previous year. This performance was supported by a recovery in the PC/server market and strong results from the Voltaira business [1][5]. - The GPM improved by 450 basis points year-over-year to 20.3%. The electric vehicle (EV) segment saw a remarkable 205% year-over-year growth, while the computing segment grew by 6% and the networking segment by 9% [1][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For FY24E, revenue is expected to rebound by 12% year-over-year, with net profit projected to increase by 52%. The FY24E earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at USD 2.81, with subsequent years showing continued growth [1][6][9]. - The report indicates that the FY24E revenue forecast remains unchanged at USD 4.715 billion, with gross profit expected to be USD 984 million, maintaining a GPM of 20.9% [8][9]. Market Opportunities - The management highlighted a significant opportunity in AI servers, with expected revenue contribution of 7-9% in FY24E, up from 1% in FY23. The anticipated value per compute tray is estimated between USD 500 and USD 1,000 [1][6]. - The integration of Voltaira's automotive electronics is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth, alongside the anticipated increase in AirPods shipments and enhancements in AI server product offerings [1][10].
1Q24 in line; Positive on AI server/networking and AirPods ramp-up in 2H24E
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-13 03:32
Investment Rating - FIT Hon Teng maintains a BUY rating with a new target price of HK$2 40 based on 11x FY24E P/E [2][13] Core View - FIT Hon Teng's 1Q24 results were in line with expectations driven by recovery in PC/server markets solid Voltaira business and strong Networking segment [2] - The company is expected to benefit from AirPods ramp-up integration of Voltaira auto electronics business and AI server/networking products in 2H24E [2] - Revenue and net profit are forecasted to rebound 12% and 52% YoY respectively in FY24E [2] - The stock's recent correction is attributed to profit-taking after a 101% rally in the past three months [2] Financial Performance - 1Q24 revenue reached US$965mn a 12% YoY increase while net profit was US$10 2mn compared to a loss of US$9 3mn in 1Q23 [2] - Gross profit margin improved by 450bps YoY to 20 3% due to a better product mix [2] - EV segment revenue surged 205% YoY driven by the Voltaira merger while Computing and Networking segments grew 6% and 9% YoY respectively [2] - FY24E revenue is projected at US$4 715mn with a 12 4% YoY growth and net profit is expected to reach US$199 6mn a 51 4% YoY increase [3][9] Segment Analysis - EV Mobility segment revenue jumped 205% YoY in 1Q24 due to the Voltaira merger [7] - Networking segment grew 9% YoY driven by AI demand and new CPU-related products [2] - Computing segment increased 6% YoY supported by market recovery [2] AI Server Opportunity - FIT Hon Teng expects US$500-1 000 content value per compute tray for AI servers in FY24E [2] - AI revenue share is projected to be 7-9% in FY24E up from 1% in FY23 [2] Valuation - The stock is trading at 8 9x/6 7x FY24/25E P/E which is considered attractive given multiple growth drivers [2][13] - The new target price of HK$2 40 is based on 11x FY24E P/E reflecting accelerated growth and profitability recovery [13] Growth Drivers - Key catalysts include AirPods shipments AI server product updates and continued revenue upside from auto business consolidation [13] - The company's "3+3 Strategy" is expected to drive accelerated growth and profitability recovery [13]
中国医药行业支持政策有望落地,业绩复苏可期
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-13 03:12
\ \\\\\\\\\\ 2024 年 5 月 13 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 行业支持政策有望落地,业绩复苏可期 年初至今,MSCI中国医疗指数下跌17.2%,跑输MSCI中国指数26.5%。近期随着 市场上涨,医药行业也大幅反弹。4月19日以来MSCI中国医疗指数反弹 15%;同 中国医药行业 期行业指数的动态市盈率从 23.0倍回升至 26.8倍,但仍低于 12年历史均值。大部 分龙头个股的动态市盈率仍然远低于历史平均水平。预计医疗设备以旧换新的政策 武 煜, CFA (852) 3900 0842 即将落地,政策力度大、范围广、持续周期长,将有效刺激医疗设备的需求释放。 jillwu@cmbi.com.hk 同时,我们预期创新药、创新器械的支持政策将持续落地,期待全国性政策出台。 王云逸 我们预计,随着行业支持性政策陆续落地、行业监管常态化进行,新冠基数影响逐 (852) 3916 1729 渐消退,中国医药行业有望回归健康增长。 cathywang@cmbi.com.hk  医疗设备更新落地箭在弦上,期待医院招标复苏。5 月初,发改委召开大规模设 备更新工作和消费 ...
中国医药:行业支持政策有望落地,业绩复苏可期
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-13 02:30
Group 1: Market Overview - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has decreased by 17.2% year-to-date, underperforming the MSCI China Index by 26.5%[26] - Since April 19, the MSCI China Healthcare Index has rebounded by 15%, with the dynamic P/E ratio rising from 23.0x to 26.8x, still below the 12-year historical average[26] Group 2: Policy Support and Industry Recovery - Upcoming policies for medical equipment upgrades are expected to significantly stimulate demand, with a projected investment increase of over 25% by 2027 compared to 2023 levels[26] - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated discussions on large-scale equipment updates, indicating a recovery in hospital procurement demand[26] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in leading companies such as Mindray Medical, BeiGene, and United Imaging, anticipating significant benefits from policy implementations[26] - The expected support for innovative drugs and devices is likely to enhance the growth prospects for the pharmaceutical sector, with a focus on companies that can leverage international market opportunities[26] Group 4: Financial Metrics - Mindray Medical (300760 CH) has a market capitalization of $51,032.7 million with a target price indicating a 26% upside potential[2] - BeiGene (BGNE US) shows a potential upside of 67%, despite its current P/E ratio being not meaningful (nm) due to losses[2]
国际策略观点:政策再度宽松
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-12 12:17
更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要关注公众号:水木纪要 2024年5月8日 招银国际环球市场」市场策略丨策略报告 策略观点 中国政策再度宽松 ■宏观:中国经济活动再次回落,推动政策再度宽松;房地产政策更加聚焦于提 振需求和去库存,包括进一步放松住房限购、降低按揭贷款首付比例与利率和 鼓励地方政府收购滞销商品房转为保障房;政府将通过适度补贴,推动新一轮 企业设备和家庭汽车家电以旧换新,以提振内需;随着大宗商品价格反弹和服 务价格缓慢回升,通缩程度或有所缓解。美国经济仍具韧性,通胀持续超预期, 市场对美联储降息幅度预期已大幅下降,美元利率和汇率大幅反弹推动金融条 件收紧,下半年经济和通胀或重回放缓趋势,美联储可能在9月降息,年内降 息幅度约50个基点。 ■科技:乐观,继续看好 AI算力/端侧成长、手机/PC 需求复苏以及产业链业绩 持续改善,A/H科技板块1Q业绩复苏加速,产业景气度触底回升;海外科技 龙头1Q业绩向好,全球云厂商资本支出大幅增加,推动AI服务器产业链强劲 增长;苹果/高通2Q指引好于预期,看好手机/PC等业务受益于AI端侧创新; 小米 SU7 上市和特斯拉推动 FSD 入华有望加速高阶智能驾驶落 ...
Consistently exceeding expectations
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-10 03:32
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for BeiGene, reflecting strong growth potential and robust pipeline [2][4][16] Core Insights - BeiGene's product sales in 1Q24 reached US$747 million, showing an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase and an 82% year-over-year increase, representing 25.7% of the previous FY24 estimate [2] - Zanubrutinib (zanu) sales were particularly strong, increasing 18% QoQ and 131% YoY to US$489 million, driven by market share gains in CLL in the US and expanded reimbursement in the EU [2] - The company is on track to achieve profitability, with expectations to break even by FY26E, supported by improving operating margins and narrowing net losses [2][3] Summary by Sections Product Sales Performance - Total product sales for BeiGene in 1Q24 were US$747 million, up 18% QoQ and 82% YoY [2] - Zanubrutinib captured approximately 21% of the global BTK inhibitor market in 1Q24, up from 18% in 4Q23 [2] Patent Dispute - A patent dispute with Pharmacyclics is nearing resolution, with the USPTO expected to issue a final decision on the validity of the contested patent within 12 months [2] Financial Performance - Gross profit margin improved to 83.3% in 1Q24 from 82.7% in FY23, driven by high-margin product sales [2] - Net loss narrowed to US$251 million in 1Q24 from US$368 million in 4Q23, better than expectations [2][3] Future Growth Potential - Upcoming clinical trials for sonrotoclax and BGB-16673 are expected to yield significant data, with potential blockbuster status anticipated [2] - Forecast for zanubrutinib sales in FY24 is US$2.2 billion, representing a 69% YoY increase [2] Target Price Adjustment - The DCF-based target price for BeiGene has been raised from US$268.20 to US$269.73, indicating a potential upside of 59.9% from the current price of US$168.64 [4][12]
策略观点:中国政策再度宽松
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-09 08:31
敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 中国政策再度宽松 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 2 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 3 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 4 图 1: 行业荐股 2024 年 5 月 8 日 中国经济 房地产销售延续下滑,未来跌幅或逐步收窄。30 大中城市商品房成交套数今年一季度同比 下跌 42.2%,4 月同比降幅仍达到 38.6%,相比 2019 年同期复苏率则从去年的 64.9%降至 今年一季度的 49.5%和 4 月的 43.4%。二手房销量率先改善,11 个代表性城市(包括北京、 深圳、杭州、南京、成都、青岛、苏州、厦门、无锡、东莞和佛山)二手房销量同比降幅 从今年一季度的 23.3%收窄至 4 月的 9.6%,相比 2019 年同期复苏率从 2022 年的 74.1% 升至去年的 96.3%和今年一季度的 105.1%,4 月又降至 86.4%。以往房地产周期中各指标 改善顺序是:二手房销量->新房销量->开发商现金流->开发投资、土地市场。二手房销量 作为先行指标率先改善,预示新房销量降幅可能逐步收 ...
1Q24E preview: Expect strong earnings ahead; Raise TP to HK$23.77
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-09 03:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Xiaomi with a new target price (TP) of HK$23.77, reflecting a 24.5% upside from the current price of HK$19.10 [3][20]. Core Insights - Xiaomi is expected to report strong earnings for 1Q24, with estimated revenue and adjusted net profit growth of 26% and 67% year-over-year, respectively, driven by robust smartphone shipments and improved gross profit margins across all segments [1][15]. - The company is anticipated to continue gaining global smartphone market share, particularly in Latin America, EMEA, SEA, and EU markets, supported by multiple product launches in the second half of 2024 [1][18]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for Xiaomi's smart electric vehicle (EV) business and resilient performance in core segments, leading to an upward revision of FY24-26E earnings per share (EPS) by 11-21% [1][15]. Summary by Sections Earnings Summary - FY24E revenue is projected at RMB 335.7 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 23.9%. Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 20.03 billion, reflecting a 3.9% increase in adjusted EPS to RMB 0.80 [2][16]. - The report indicates a gross margin of 20.5% for FY24E, with operating and adjusted net margins of 6.4% and 6.0%, respectively [2][17]. Smartphone Segment - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments are estimated to increase by 14% year-over-year to 167 million units in FY24E, with a market share of 14% in 1Q24, up from 11% in 1Q23 [1][10]. - The average selling price (ASP) is expected to remain flat in 1Q24, with a gross profit margin projected to decline to 14.5% due to rising component costs [1][13]. AIoT and Internet Services - Revenue from AIoT and Internet services is expected to grow by 19% and 7% year-over-year in 1Q24, respectively, driven by strong sales in pads and home appliances [1][15]. - The gross profit margin for AIoT is projected to improve to 18.5%, while the Internet services margin is expected to remain stable at 75.0% [1][15]. Valuation - The new SOTP-based target price of HK$23.77 is derived from applying a 15x P/E multiple to the smartphone, AIoT, and Internet businesses, and a 0.75x P/S multiple for the EV business [18][19]. - The report emphasizes upcoming catalysts, including the ramp-up of EV product shipments and further smartphone market share gains [18][19].
Looking beyond 3Q OI volatility
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-09 01:02
M N 8 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Walt Disney Co (DIS US) Looking beyond 3Q OI volatility Target Price US$142.00 Disney delivered solid 2QFY24 results, with inline revenue (+1.2% YoY) (Previous TP US$142.00) and upbeat profit (+30% YoY, beating consensus by 8%). The upbeat Up/Downside 34.7% margin was mainly attributable to DTC’s breakeven (ahead of guidance). Current Price US$105.39 Mgmt also raised its FY24E EPS growth target to 25% YoY (vs. prior at least ...