Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a target price of HK$480.00, up from a previous target of HK$445.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price of HK$381.80 [1]. Core Insights - The company's quality growth strategy is expected to drive strong earnings growth, with non-IFRS net income projected to grow at a CAGR of 15% over FY24-26E. The report raises FY24-26E earnings forecasts by 6-8% [1]. - Total revenue for 1Q24 increased by 6% YoY to RMB159.5 billion, with a gross profit margin (GPM) expansion of 7.1 percentage points YoY to 52.6% [1][2]. - The report highlights a recovery in domestic games gross receipts and strong growth in advertising revenue, particularly from Weixin ad properties [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 609.0 billion in FY23A to RMB 661.9 billion in FY24E, with adjusted net profit expected to rise from RMB 157.7 billion in FY23A to RMB 199.5 billion in FY24E [2][26]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to increase from RMB 16.66 in FY23A to RMB 20.60 in FY24E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][26]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 51.1% in FY23A to 53.0% in FY24E, indicating enhanced profitability [2][26]. Segment Performance - Online games revenue is projected to recover, with a slight decline of 2% YoY in 1Q24, but expected to rebound in subsequent quarters [1][3]. - Advertising revenue grew by 26% YoY to RMB 26.5 billion in 1Q24, driven by high-margin Weixin ad properties [1][3]. - Business services revenue increased by 7% YoY to RMB 52.3 billion in 1Q24, supported by strong growth in cloud revenue [1][3]. Valuation Breakdown - The target price of HK$480.0 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, with HK$182.0 attributed to the online games business, HK$85.6 to the advertising business, and HK$20.7 to the cloud business [4][5][6]. - The valuation reflects a premium for the company's strong market position and growth potential in various segments [4][5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company Huya, with a target price of US$6.8, indicating a potential upside of 44.5% from the current price of US$4.73 [4][10]. Core Insights - Huya's 1Q24 results exceeded expectations, with revenue declining 23% YoY but showing a 1% increase compared to consensus estimates. The adjusted net profit reached RMB92 million, which is 84% above consensus, driven by improved gross profit margins and operational efficiency [2][3]. - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of 5% QoQ in 2Q24, with the livestreaming segment anticipated to stabilize and other revenue sources projected to grow by 25% QoQ. The profitability outlook has been revised upwards for FY24, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB254 million, up from RMB132 million previously [2][3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - **1Q24 Financials**: Revenue was RMB1,504 million, down 23% YoY, with a gross profit margin of 14.7%. The adjusted net profit was RMB92 million, reflecting a significant improvement in operational efficiency [2][3][13]. - **Future Projections**: For FY24, revenue is projected at RMB6,727 million, with a gross profit of RMB1,058 million and an adjusted net profit of RMB254 million. The company anticipates continued growth in subsequent years, with revenue expected to reach RMB7,834 million by FY26 [13][16]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report highlights a P/E ratio of 50.9 for FY24, decreasing to 28.2 by FY26, indicating an improving valuation as profitability increases [16]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue breakdown for 1Q24 shows that livestreaming revenue was RMB1,260 million, down 32.2% YoY, while other revenues surged by 172.7% YoY to RMB244 million, driven by game-related services and advertising [8][9]. - The company expects the livestreaming segment to stabilize in 2Q24, with a forecasted growth of 1% QoQ, while game-related services are projected to grow by 25% QoQ [2][3]. Profitability Metrics - The adjusted net profit margin for FY24 is expected to improve to 3.8%, with further increases projected in FY25 and FY26 [10][16]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to rise from 15.7% in FY24 to 19.5% by FY26, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and better monetization strategies [10][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a target price of HKD 8.00 for SANY International, indicating a potential upside of 24.8% from the current price of HKD 6.41 [2]. Core Insights - SANY International is expected to report exciting results for Q1 2024, despite a projected year-on-year net profit decline of approximately 15% due to various challenges, including decreased domestic coal production and intense competition in certain product lines [1]. - A recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2024, driven by improvements in the solar business and strong overseas demand for large mining trucks and telescopic handlers [1]. - The mining equipment segment is under pressure, with a forecasted revenue decline of about 15% due to decreased sales of coal mining equipment and a slowdown in the sales of wide-body trucks [1]. - Logistics equipment revenue is expected to grow by approximately 25% year-on-year, supported by significant growth in small port machinery and a backlog of large machinery orders [1]. - The solar power segment is currently in a loss-making phase, but potential project completions may help mitigate future losses [1]. Financial Summary - For Q1 2024, the expected net profit is around RMB 550 million, reflecting a 15% decrease year-on-year, while total revenue is projected to grow by about 4% [1][17]. - The report outlines a steady increase in revenue from RMB 20,278 million in 2023 to RMB 26,717 million in 2024E, with further growth expected in subsequent years [17]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to decline due to competitive pressures in the mining equipment sector and increased operational costs in emerging businesses [1][17]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a performance of 24.2% over the past month and a decline of 31.7% over the past six months [4]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 11.2x in 2021 to 6.2x in 2026, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [2][17]. Key Assumptions - The report provides a detailed breakdown of revenue projections across various segments, including mining trucks, logistics equipment, and solar power, highlighting expected growth rates and market dynamics [15][17].

2024 年 5 月 14 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 TME (TME US) 1Q24 得益于强劲的音乐业务增长和 GPM 扩张 目标价格(上一个 US $16.00 TME 公布了第 1 季度的业绩 ： 由于在线音乐收入强劲增长，总收入同比下降 3 ％，至 67.7 亿元 TP上行 / 下行当 US $12.50) 人民币，超出了普遍预期的 3 ％ ； 非 IFRS 净收入同比增长 21 ％，至 17.0 亿元人民币，比普遍 前价格 19.9% 预期高出 7 ％，主要归因于 GPM 的强劲增长 （ 同比增长 7.9 个百分点 ） 和运营支出的有效控制 13.34 美元 （ 同比增长 8 ％ ） 。TME 凭借其强大的现金产生能力进一步提高了股东的回报，并宣布其首个年 中国互联网 度现金股息为每 ADS 0.137 美元 （ 股息收益率为 c.0 ％ ） 。展望未来，我们预计总收入将同比下 Saiyi He, CFA 降 2%，而非 IFRS 净收入将在第二季度增长 20%，原因是音乐收入的强劲增长和 GPM 的扩张。 (852) 3916 1739 我们将 FY24 - 26 ...

半导体设备制造行业是一个周期性行业，该行业在2023年的销售额为1,060亿美元，约占半导体市场总销售额 （5,270亿美元）的20%。展望2024年，我们认为AI需求将会持续拉动半导体基础设施的投资和相关设备的购 买。同时，存储需求的复苏以及支持边缘计算的电子产品的陆续推出，将带动全球半导体市场销售额增长，最 终推动对半导体设备的投资。据SEMI预测，全球半导体设备市场销售额在未来两年的增速为3%和18%。 对于中国而言，半导体国产替代、自主可控将是长期趋势。得益于国家政策和补贴的支持、产业研发的突破， 以及下游国产替代强劲的需求驱动，中国半导体设备行业将迎来蓬勃发展，整个行业正逐步走向正循环轨道。 我们看好半导体设备板块的长期发展：一方面，海外行业龙头将继续保持领先地位；另一方面，中国设备供应 商因国产替代、自主可控对需求的拉动，将会迎来更高的收入增长和份额提升。 我们相信一众中国半导体设备厂商都将是受益者，如北方华创（002371 CH，买入）、中微公司（688012 CH，未评级）与盛美半导体（688082 CH，未评级）等。其中，我们最为看好北方华创 (002371 CH)。公 司是中国领先的半导体 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for the company, with a target price raised to US$16.00 from US$12.50 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a 3% year-over-year decline in total revenue to RMB6.77 billion for 1Q24, but this was 3% above consensus estimates, driven by strong online music revenue growth [2]. - Non-IFRS net income increased by 21% year-over-year to RMB1.70 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by 7%, primarily due to gross profit margin (GPM) expansion of 7.9 percentage points year-over-year and effective operating expense control [2]. - The company announced its first annual cash dividend of US$0.137 per ADS, representing approximately a 1.0% dividend yield [2]. Revenue and Profitability - Online music revenue surged by 43% year-over-year to RMB5.01 billion in 1Q24, accounting for 74% of total revenue, with music subscription revenue growing by 39% year-over-year [2][11]. - The GPM improved to 40.9% in 1Q24, up 7.9 percentage points year-over-year, supported by strong growth in music subscription and advertising businesses [2][11]. - The report forecasts a 2% year-over-year decline in total revenue for 2Q24, while non-IFRS net income is expected to grow by 20% [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB28.83 billion in FY24, with a gross margin of 42.4% and adjusted net profit of RMB7.44 billion [3][9]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to grow to RMB10.39 billion by FY26, with a gross margin increasing to 44.7% [3][9]. - The report indicates a significant increase in the adjusted net profit margin, expected to reach 29.7% by FY26 [9][10]. Shareholder Returns - The company has enhanced shareholder returns through the announcement of an annual dividend and share repurchases, with 6.9 million ADS repurchased for US$61 million in 1Q24 [2][12]. - The total amount for the announced dividend is US$210 million, which is about 1.0% of the market capitalization [2]. Market Performance - The company’s market capitalization is approximately US$20.56 billion, with a 52-week high of US$13.57 and a low of US$6.02 [6]. - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month increase of 12.6% and a 6-month increase of 81.0% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for SANY International with an unchanged target price of HK$8, indicating a potential upside of 24.8% from the current price of HK$6.41 [2][5]. Core Views - SANY International is expected to report a net profit decrease of approximately 15% year-on-year for 1Q24E, primarily due to reduced capital expenditure from miners, increased competition in certain product segments, and losses in the solar power segment. However, a recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2024, driven by improvements in the solar business and strong overseas demand for large mining trucks and telescopic handlers [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected to reach RMB 26,717 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.8% [4][19]. - Adjusted net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 2,131.3 million, with a growth rate of 10.5% compared to FY23A [4][19]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is forecasted to be RMB 0.67, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.8x [4][19]. Segment Performance - Mining equipment revenue is expected to decline by approximately 15% year-on-year due to decreased sales of coal mining equipment and a slowdown in wide-body truck sales, despite some growth in large-size mining trucks [3][4]. - Logistics equipment revenue is projected to grow by around 25% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for small-size port machinery and a solid backlog of large-size machinery [3][4]. - The solar power segment is anticipated to remain loss-making in 1Q24E, but the completion of certain projects may help mitigate losses in the future [3][4]. Market Context - The report highlights that the coal mining sector in China is experiencing a downturn, which is impacting SANY International's performance. However, the company is expected to benefit from strong overseas demand for its products, particularly in the mining and logistics sectors [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xtep with a target price of HKD 7.63, reflecting a 40.4% upside from the current price of HKD 5.43 [3][6]. Core Insights - Xtep's short-term outlook has improved due to increased arrangements, leading to a 2% to 5% upward revision in FY24E - 26E net profit estimates [1][6]. - The valuation remains attractive at 10 times FY24E P/E and a 14% yield, supporting the positive outlook [1][6]. - The strategic disposal of K&P is seen as beneficial, as it alleviates impairment risks and allows Xtep to focus on its core market segments [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E are estimated at HKD 15,371 million, HKD 15,713 million, and HKD 17,298 million respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% for sales and 20% for net profit [6][7]. - The net profit for FY24E is revised to HKD 1,275 million, with subsequent years showing growth to HKD 1,479 million in FY25E and HKD 1,763 million in FY26E [7][8]. - The report indicates a projected diluted earnings per share of RMB 0.483 for FY24E, increasing to RMB 0.560 in FY25E and RMB 0.668 in FY26E [7][8]. Strategic Actions - Xtep plans to acquire K&P for USD 151 million, with the entire consideration paid as a special dividend of HKD 0.447 per share, representing approximately 8% of the current market capitalization [1][2]. - The company will redeem Hillhouse's K&P convertible bonds at a total value of USD 65 million, which will further streamline its capital structure [1][2]. - Xtep aims to enhance cash flow and dividend payments, allowing for accelerated expansion of its Saucony brand, which has reached breakeven [2][6].

Investment Rating - Maintain Buy rating with a target price of $46 based on SOTP valuation [2][12] Core Views - GigaCloud (GCT US) delivered a strong Q1 2024 performance with revenue growth of 96% YoY, beating expectations by 3% [2] - Net profit in Q1 2024 was $27 million, up 71% YoY but 10% below expectations due to new fulfillment center costs and FX volatility [2] - Management guided Q2 2024E revenue of $265-280 million, representing 73-83% YoY growth, with the midpoint 9% above expectations [2] - Positive margin trends expected in 2H24E driven by narrowing NH losses, annual freight contracts, and improved warehouse utilization [2] - BaaS initiative launched in April 2024 is expected to unlock TAM and drive long-term incremental growth [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was $251 million, up 96% YoY, with gross profit of $67 million and net profit of $27 million [2][7] - FY24E revenue is forecasted at $1.112 billion, up 58% YoY, with net profit of $116 million [2][10] - FY25E revenue is projected at $1.353 billion, up 22% YoY, with net profit of $150 million [2][10] - FY26E revenue is estimated at $1.632 billion, up 21% YoY, with net profit of $188 million [2][10] Operational Highlights - Global fulfillment network expanded to 42 locations covering over 10.5 million square feet, up 169% from March 2023 [2] - Outdoor furniture demand is expected to drive Q2 2024E revenue growth [2] - BaaS program charges a competitive 4% fee compared to the industry standard of 10% [2] Valuation - SOTP valuation based on 18x P/E for 3P business and 16x P/E for 1P business, resulting in a target price of $46 [12] - DCF valuation assumes a WACC of 15.7% and long-term growth rate of 3%, also supporting the $46 target price [13][14] Historical Performance - FY23 revenue grew 44% YoY to $704 million, with net profit up 293% YoY to $94 million [10] - FY22 revenue increased 18% YoY to $490 million, with net profit of $24 million [10] - FY21 revenue was $414 million, with net profit of $29 million [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for GigaCloud (GCT US) with a target price of US$46, representing a 23.2% upside from the current price of US$37.35 [5][12]. Core Insights - GigaCloud delivered strong 1Q24 results with revenue growth of 96% YoY, reaching US$251 million, and net profit of US$27 million, up 71% YoY. The net profit margin slightly declined due to expenses from new fulfillment centers and foreign exchange fluctuations [2][4]. - The company expects 2Q24 revenue to be between US$265 million and US$280 million, indicating a growth of 73% to 83% YoY, driven by increased demand for outdoor furniture and an expanding fulfillment network [2][4]. - GigaCloud's global fulfillment network has expanded to 42 locations with over 10.5 million square feet, a 169% increase compared to March 31, 2023, which supports robust growth in both first-party and third-party business [2][4]. - The launch of the BaaS (Business as a Service) program is anticipated to unlock total addressable market (TAM) opportunities and enhance engagement between buyers and sellers, with a competitive fee structure [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from US$704 million in FY23 to US$1,112 million in FY24, with further increases to US$1,353 million in FY25 and US$1,632 million in FY26 [17]. - Net profit is expected to rise from US$94 million in FY23 to US$116 million in FY24, reaching US$150 million in FY25 and US$188 million in FY26 [17]. - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 27% for FY24E to FY26E, while the net margin is expected to improve from 10.4% in FY24E to 11.5% in FY26E [12][17]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the equity value at US$1,896 million, leading to a target price of US$46 based on a 16x FY24E P/E multiple [13][14]. - A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis suggests a target price of US$46, with a terminal value of US$2,356 million, assuming a WACC of 15.7% and a long-term growth rate of 3% [14][15].