M N 16 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update ZTO Express (2057 HK) 1Q24 core earnings beat estimates; Shifted to profitable growth strategy Target Price HK$303.00 ZTO Express (ZTO) shifted the strategic focus to profitable growth in 1Q24, Up/Downside 74.5% enabling it to deliver core net profit of RMB1.9bn (+23% YoY), representing 19% Current Price HK$173.60 of our full-year forecast (run rate in 1Q23: 17.6%), which is better than our expectation. Looking forward, ZTO ...

2024 年 5 月 16 日 美国经济 美国 4 月 CPI 环比超预期回落，同比增速重回缓慢下降趋势，因新车、二手 车、家具等耐用品价格跌幅扩大和酒店、机票等部分服务价格回落。能源通胀 延续回升。房租通胀小幅回落，但仍在高位，预计下半年可能迎来更明显的放 缓。4月通胀数据不足以令美联储在7月开始降息，美联储需要获得更多经济和 通胀降温的证据，但增加了 9 月开始降息的概率。通胀数据公布后，货币市场 预期 9 月美联储已降息概率从 65%升至 74%，2 年国债收益率最高下跌近 9.3 个基点至 4.73%，10 年国债收益率最高下跌近 11 个基点至 4.34%，美元指数 走弱，美股走强。我们预计随着货币政策紧缩效应持续释放，下半年经济和通 胀或更明显降温，我们维持美联储可能 9 月降息、全年降息 50 个基点的预测。 核心商品降幅扩大，但能源通胀继续反弹。4 月 CPI 环比增长 0.31%，低于 市场预期的 0.37%，同比增速从 3.5%降至 3.4%，重回缓慢降温趋势。食品 价格环比增速从 0.1%降至 0%，同比增速保持在 2.2%，继续向疫情前趋势 回归，其中外出就餐价格环比增速 0.3%依然 ...

| 一般 | 注: 2024 年 5 月 16 日 招银国际环球市场投资评级 重要披露 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 宏观策略 美国总统拜登周二宣布对中国一系列商品追加关税。我们认为这些关税主要 具有象征性作用，其政治影响大于经济影响。在美国大选之年，两位候选人 竞相展现对中国更强硬的姿态。 这些关税无疑将恶化中美关系。中国决策层正努力恢复外商信心，并力求避 免让中国议题成为美国大选的中心，所以可能采取一些象征性反制措施，总 体或将比较温和。美国加征关税可能令部分投资者担心中美紧张局势升级， 关税对人民币和中国股市有一定负面影响，但市场之前可能对此已有预期。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 480.0 HKD, up from the previous target of 445.0 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price of 381.80 HKD [3][8]. Core Insights - Tencent reported a 6% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q1, reaching 159.5 billion RMB, aligning with expectations. Non-IFRS net income surged 54% year-on-year to 5.3 billion RMB, exceeding forecasts by 17% [3]. - The company's gross profit margin (GPM) expanded by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by high-margin revenue sources such as video accounts and mini-games. This trend is expected to continue throughout FY24 [3][4]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% for non-IFRS net income from FY24 to FY26, with earnings forecasts raised by 6-8% [3][5]. Revenue Summary - Total revenue for Q1 was 159.5 billion RMB, with online advertising revenue increasing by 26% year-on-year to 26.5 billion RMB, driven by strong growth in WeChat advertising [4]. - Gaming revenue saw a slight decline of 1% year-on-year to 48.1 billion RMB, but domestic gaming revenue showed signs of recovery with a 3% increase in Q1 [3][4]. - Financial technology and business services (FBS) revenue grew by 7% year-on-year to 52.3 billion RMB, although this was below general expectations due to slower growth in fintech [5]. Profitability Metrics - The overall GPM for Q1 increased to 52.6%, with significant contributions from value-added services (VAS), advertising, and FBS segments [5]. - The report projects continued GPM expansion for the remainder of FY24, with non-IFRS net income expected to grow by 27% and 10% in FY24 and FY25, respectively [5]. Valuation Breakdown - The target price of 480.0 HKD is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis, which includes valuations for various business segments such as online gaming, social networking services, advertising, fintech, and cloud services [12][13]. - The valuation for the online gaming business is set at 182.0 HKD based on a 19x PE ratio, while the advertising business is valued at 85.6 HKD based on an 18x PE ratio [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of $124.90 per ADS [7][24] Core Views - The company's business adjustments show higher visibility in delivering results [7] - Management emphasizes investments to support core businesses, particularly in the T&T Group, which saw double-digit GMV growth [7] - The company's increased shareholder returns and potential primary listing in Hong Kong are expected to support valuation [7] - The cloud business's adjusted EBITA margin continues to expand, with management confident in returning to double-digit revenue growth [7] Financial Performance Valuation Metrics - P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 26.6x in 2022A to 9.4x in 2027E [1] - P/B ratio is projected to decline from 1.7x in 2022A to 0.9x in 2027E [1] - P/CFPS is forecasted to decrease from 18.6x in 2022A to 10.3x in 2027E [1] Growth Metrics - Revenue growth is expected to be 7.9% in 2025E, 8.4% in 2026E, and 6.6% in 2027E [3] - Net profit growth is projected at 56.3% in 2025E, followed by 10.0% in 2026E and 10.3% in 2027E [3] - Adjusted net profit growth is forecasted at -3.3% in 2025E, 9.4% in 2026E, and 9.3% in 2027E [3] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin is expected to remain stable around 37% from 2025E to 2027E [3] - Operating margin is projected to increase from 13.6% in 2025E to 14.7% in 2027E [3] - Adjusted net profit margin is forecasted to be 15.1% in 2025E, 15.2% in 2026E, and 15.6% in 2027E [3] Key Business Updates T&T Group - In Q4FY24, T&T Group's revenue was RMB 93.2 billion, up 3.7% YoY, with CMR revenue of RMB 63.6 billion, up 5.0% YoY [17] - Adjusted EBITA for the group was RMB 38.5 billion, down 1.4% YoY due to increased investments in user experience and technology infrastructure [17] AIDC - AIDC's revenue in Q4FY24 was RMB 27.4 billion, up 45.1% YoY, with international retail and wholesale revenues growing 56.4% and 10.8% respectively [17] - Adjusted EBITA loss widened to RMB 4.1 billion in Q4FY24 from RMB 2.2 billion in Q4FY23 due to increased investments in AliExpress Choice and Tredyol [17] Local Services Group - LSG's revenue in Q4FY24 was RMB 14.6 billion, up 18.5% YoY, driven by order growth in Ele.me and Amap [18] - Adjusted EBITA loss narrowed to RMB 3.2 billion in Q4FY24 from RMB 4.1 billion in Q4FY23, thanks to reduced losses in the "To-Home" business [18] Cainiao - Cainiao's revenue in Q4FY24 was RMB 24.6 billion, up 29.8% YoY, driven by increased cross-border fulfillment services [19] - Adjusted EBITA margin was -5.5% in Q4FY24, compared to -1.7% in Q4FY23, mainly due to retention incentives for employees following the IPO withdrawal [19] Valuation Breakdown - T&T Group is valued at $58.5 per ADS based on 7.0x FY25E EV/adjusted EBITA [26] - AIDC is valued at $11.3 per ADS based on 1.5x FY25E EV/Sales [26] - Local Services Group is valued at $5.7 per ADS based on 1.5x FY25E EV/Sales [26] - Cainiao is valued at $2.6 per ADS based on the latest valuation from Alibaba's minority stake buyback [26] - Cloud Intelligence Group is valued at $24.3 per ADS based on 3.9x FY25E EV/Sales [26] - Digital Media and Entertainment Group is valued at $1.3 per ADS based on 1.0x FY25E EV/Sales [26] - All Others are valued at $9.7 per ADS based on 1.0x FY25E EV/Sales [26] - Strategic investments are valued at $11.6 per ADS with a 30% holding discount [26]

CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk1 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 2 Taobao and Tmall Group (38.5% of 4QFY24 revenue) In 4QFY24, revenue generated from Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) was RMB27.4bn, up 45.1% YoY, among which international commerce retail revenue was up ...

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M N 14 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Huya (HUYA US) Fundamentals to bottom out Target Price US$6.8 Huya’s 1Q24 results beat on margin, with topline/bottom line 1%/84% (Previous TP US$6.8) above consensus. Looking into 2Q24E, we expect revenue to achieve 5% Up/Downside 44.5% QoQ growth, in which livestreaming would bottom out and others revenue Current Price US$4.73 +25% OoQ. We are positive on Huya’s game-related business monetization and expect upside from mul ...

2024 年 5 月 14 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 三一国际 （ 631 香港 ） 预计第 1 季度 24E 将有一系列令人兴奋的结果 ， 2H24E 有可能恢复 三一将于 5 月 16 日 (本周四) 公布 1Q24E 财务数据。我们预测三一的净利润将从高基数同比 目标价 8.00 港元 下降约 15%，原因是 (1) 由于国内煤炭产量在第 1 季度下降，矿商受到严格的资本支出 ； (2) （ 前 TP 8.00 港元 ） 液压支架和宽体卡车等某些产品的激烈竞争 ； (3) 亏损的太阳能部门。尽管近期逆风，但由于 涨 / 跌 24.8% 太阳能业务的改善和采矿设备部门的低基数效应，我们预计下半年可能会出现复苏。我们还预 CurrentPrice 6.41 港元 计，海外对大型矿用卡车和伸缩式装卸机的强劲需求将有助于应对煤矿机械的潜在下行周期。 中国资本货物 维护。购买TP 不变 ， 为 8 港元 （ 仍基于 11 倍 2024E 市盈率 ） 。 Wayne FUNG, CFA 1Q24E 结果预览 ： (852) 3900 0826  对采矿设备的压力。我们预测矿业部门收入将 ...

2024 年 5 月 14 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 TME (TME US) 1Q24 得益于强劲的音乐业务增长和 GPM 扩张 目标价格(上一个 US $16.00 TME 公布了第 1 季度的业绩 ： 由于在线音乐收入强劲增长，总收入同比下降 3 ％，至 67.7 亿元 TP上行 / 下行当 US $12.50) 人民币，超出了普遍预期的 3 ％ ； 非 IFRS 净收入同比增长 21 ％，至 17.0 亿元人民币，比普遍 前价格 19.9% 预期高出 7 ％，主要归因于 GPM 的强劲增长 （ 同比增长 7.9 个百分点 ） 和运营支出的有效控制 13.34 美元 （ 同比增长 8 ％ ） 。TME 凭借其强大的现金产生能力进一步提高了股东的回报，并宣布其首个年 中国互联网 度现金股息为每 ADS 0.137 美元 （ 股息收益率为 c.0 ％ ） 。展望未来，我们预计总收入将同比下 Saiyi He, CFA 降 2%，而非 IFRS 净收入将在第二季度增长 20%，原因是音乐收入的强劲增长和 GPM 的扩张。 (852) 3916 1739 我们将 FY24 - 26 ...