半导体设备制造行业是一个周期性行业，该行业在2023年的销售额为1,060亿美元，约占半导体市场总销售额 （5,270亿美元）的20%。展望2024年，我们认为AI需求将会持续拉动半导体基础设施的投资和相关设备的购 买。同时，存储需求的复苏以及支持边缘计算的电子产品的陆续推出，将带动全球半导体市场销售额增长，最 终推动对半导体设备的投资。据SEMI预测，全球半导体设备市场销售额在未来两年的增速为3%和18%。 对于中国而言，半导体国产替代、自主可控将是长期趋势。得益于国家政策和补贴的支持、产业研发的突破， 以及下游国产替代强劲的需求驱动，中国半导体设备行业将迎来蓬勃发展，整个行业正逐步走向正循环轨道。 我们看好半导体设备板块的长期发展：一方面，海外行业龙头将继续保持领先地位；另一方面，中国设备供应 商因国产替代、自主可控对需求的拉动，将会迎来更高的收入增长和份额提升。 我们相信一众中国半导体设备厂商都将是受益者，如北方华创（002371 CH，买入）、中微公司（688012 CH，未评级）与盛美半导体（688082 CH，未评级）等。其中，我们最为看好北方华创 (002371 CH)。公 司是中国领先的半导体 ...

M N 14 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update TME (TME US) 1Q24 beat on strong music business growth and GPM expansion Target Price US$16.00 TME reported 1Q24 results: total revenue declined by 3% YoY to RMB6.77bn, (Previous TP US$12.50) beating consensus estimate by 3% on strong online music revenue growth; non-IFRS Up/Downside 19.9% net income grew by 21% YoY to RMB1.70bn, 7% ahead of consensus estimate, Current Price US$13.34 primarily attributable to the solid GPM e ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for SANY International with an unchanged target price of HK$8, indicating a potential upside of 24.8% from the current price of HK$6.41 [2][5]. Core Views - SANY International is expected to report a net profit decrease of approximately 15% year-on-year for 1Q24E, primarily due to reduced capital expenditure from miners, increased competition in certain product segments, and losses in the solar power segment. However, a recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2024, driven by improvements in the solar business and strong overseas demand for large mining trucks and telescopic handlers [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected to reach RMB 26,717 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.8% [4][19]. - Adjusted net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 2,131.3 million, with a growth rate of 10.5% compared to FY23A [4][19]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is forecasted to be RMB 0.67, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.8x [4][19]. Segment Performance - Mining equipment revenue is expected to decline by approximately 15% year-on-year due to decreased sales of coal mining equipment and a slowdown in wide-body truck sales, despite some growth in large-size mining trucks [3][4]. - Logistics equipment revenue is projected to grow by around 25% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for small-size port machinery and a solid backlog of large-size machinery [3][4]. - The solar power segment is anticipated to remain loss-making in 1Q24E, but the completion of certain projects may help mitigate losses in the future [3][4]. Market Context - The report highlights that the coal mining sector in China is experiencing a downturn, which is impacting SANY International's performance. However, the company is expected to benefit from strong overseas demand for its products, particularly in the mining and logistics sectors [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xtep with a target price of HKD 7.63, reflecting a 40.4% upside from the current price of HKD 5.43 [3][6]. Core Insights - Xtep's short-term outlook has improved due to increased arrangements, leading to a 2% to 5% upward revision in FY24E - 26E net profit estimates [1][6]. - The valuation remains attractive at 10 times FY24E P/E and a 14% yield, supporting the positive outlook [1][6]. - The strategic disposal of K&P is seen as beneficial, as it alleviates impairment risks and allows Xtep to focus on its core market segments [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E are estimated at HKD 15,371 million, HKD 15,713 million, and HKD 17,298 million respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% for sales and 20% for net profit [6][7]. - The net profit for FY24E is revised to HKD 1,275 million, with subsequent years showing growth to HKD 1,479 million in FY25E and HKD 1,763 million in FY26E [7][8]. - The report indicates a projected diluted earnings per share of RMB 0.483 for FY24E, increasing to RMB 0.560 in FY25E and RMB 0.668 in FY26E [7][8]. Strategic Actions - Xtep plans to acquire K&P for USD 151 million, with the entire consideration paid as a special dividend of HKD 0.447 per share, representing approximately 8% of the current market capitalization [1][2]. - The company will redeem Hillhouse's K&P convertible bonds at a total value of USD 65 million, which will further streamline its capital structure [1][2]. - Xtep aims to enhance cash flow and dividend payments, allowing for accelerated expansion of its Saucony brand, which has reached breakeven [2][6].

Investment Rating - Maintain Buy rating with a target price of $46 based on SOTP valuation [2][12] Core Views - GigaCloud (GCT US) delivered a strong Q1 2024 performance with revenue growth of 96% YoY, beating expectations by 3% [2] - Net profit in Q1 2024 was $27 million, up 71% YoY but 10% below expectations due to new fulfillment center costs and FX volatility [2] - Management guided Q2 2024E revenue of $265-280 million, representing 73-83% YoY growth, with the midpoint 9% above expectations [2] - Positive margin trends expected in 2H24E driven by narrowing NH losses, annual freight contracts, and improved warehouse utilization [2] - BaaS initiative launched in April 2024 is expected to unlock TAM and drive long-term incremental growth [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was $251 million, up 96% YoY, with gross profit of $67 million and net profit of $27 million [2][7] - FY24E revenue is forecasted at $1.112 billion, up 58% YoY, with net profit of $116 million [2][10] - FY25E revenue is projected at $1.353 billion, up 22% YoY, with net profit of $150 million [2][10] - FY26E revenue is estimated at $1.632 billion, up 21% YoY, with net profit of $188 million [2][10] Operational Highlights - Global fulfillment network expanded to 42 locations covering over 10.5 million square feet, up 169% from March 2023 [2] - Outdoor furniture demand is expected to drive Q2 2024E revenue growth [2] - BaaS program charges a competitive 4% fee compared to the industry standard of 10% [2] Valuation - SOTP valuation based on 18x P/E for 3P business and 16x P/E for 1P business, resulting in a target price of $46 [12] - DCF valuation assumes a WACC of 15.7% and long-term growth rate of 3%, also supporting the $46 target price [13][14] Historical Performance - FY23 revenue grew 44% YoY to $704 million, with net profit up 293% YoY to $94 million [10] - FY22 revenue increased 18% YoY to $490 million, with net profit of $24 million [10] - FY21 revenue was $414 million, with net profit of $29 million [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for GigaCloud (GCT US) with a target price of US$46, representing a 23.2% upside from the current price of US$37.35 [5][12]. Core Insights - GigaCloud delivered strong 1Q24 results with revenue growth of 96% YoY, reaching US$251 million, and net profit of US$27 million, up 71% YoY. The net profit margin slightly declined due to expenses from new fulfillment centers and foreign exchange fluctuations [2][4]. - The company expects 2Q24 revenue to be between US$265 million and US$280 million, indicating a growth of 73% to 83% YoY, driven by increased demand for outdoor furniture and an expanding fulfillment network [2][4]. - GigaCloud's global fulfillment network has expanded to 42 locations with over 10.5 million square feet, a 169% increase compared to March 31, 2023, which supports robust growth in both first-party and third-party business [2][4]. - The launch of the BaaS (Business as a Service) program is anticipated to unlock total addressable market (TAM) opportunities and enhance engagement between buyers and sellers, with a competitive fee structure [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from US$704 million in FY23 to US$1,112 million in FY24, with further increases to US$1,353 million in FY25 and US$1,632 million in FY26 [17]. - Net profit is expected to rise from US$94 million in FY23 to US$116 million in FY24, reaching US$150 million in FY25 and US$188 million in FY26 [17]. - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 27% for FY24E to FY26E, while the net margin is expected to improve from 10.4% in FY24E to 11.5% in FY26E [12][17]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the equity value at US$1,896 million, leading to a target price of US$46 based on a 16x FY24E P/E multiple [13][14]. - A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis suggests a target price of US$46, with a terminal value of US$2,356 million, assuming a WACC of 15.7% and a long-term growth rate of 3% [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xtep with a new target price of HK$7.63, reflecting a 40.4% upside from the current price of HK$5.43 [4][7]. Core Views - The strategic disposal of K&P is expected to enhance short-term growth and improve cash flow, leading to a revision of FY24E-26E net profit estimates upwards by 2% to 5% [2][7]. - The valuation remains attractive at 10x FY24E P/E, compared to an 8-year average of 15x, alongside a 14% dividend yield for FY24E [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB 15,371 million, with a growth forecast of 10.1% for FY26E [3][9]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,464.3 million in FY24E to RMB 2,557.2 million by FY26E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from RMB 912.3 million in FY24E to RMB 1,775.7 million in FY26E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3]. Earnings Revision - The report revises FY24E net profit to RMB 1,275 million, FY25E to RMB 1,479 million, and FY26E to RMB 1,763 million, with respective growth rates of 3.6%, 2.2%, and 4.6% [8][9]. - Gross margin is expected to remain stable around 42.3% for FY24E, while EBIT margin is projected to improve to 14.1% by FY25E [8]. Market Performance - Xtep's stock has shown a 39.9% increase over the past three months, outperforming the market [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of HK$14,307.2 million, with significant shareholding by Mr. Ding Shui Po and family at 49% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for FIT Hon Teng with a target price of HKD 2.40, reflecting a 23.1% upside from the current price of HKD 1.95 [2][10]. Core Insights - FIT Hon Teng reported a solid Q1 performance, aligning with positive profit warnings and management expectations. The company reiterated its FY24E guidance, projecting a year-over-year revenue decline in the low double digits, a gross profit margin (GPM) increase, and an operating profit margin (OPM) of 5.5% [1][10]. - The recent stock adjustment is viewed as profit-taking after a 101% increase over the past three months, with an optimistic outlook for 2H24E driven by growth in AirPods, integration of Voltaira's automotive electronics business, and successful orders for AI server/network products [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 revenue reached USD 965.06 million, a 12% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of USD 10.2 million, compared to a loss of USD 9.3 million in Q1 of the previous year. This performance was supported by a recovery in the PC/server market and strong results from the Voltaira business [1][5]. - The GPM improved by 450 basis points year-over-year to 20.3%. The electric vehicle (EV) segment saw a remarkable 205% year-over-year growth, while the computing segment grew by 6% and the networking segment by 9% [1][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For FY24E, revenue is expected to rebound by 12% year-over-year, with net profit projected to increase by 52%. The FY24E earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at USD 2.81, with subsequent years showing continued growth [1][6][9]. - The report indicates that the FY24E revenue forecast remains unchanged at USD 4.715 billion, with gross profit expected to be USD 984 million, maintaining a GPM of 20.9% [8][9]. Market Opportunities - The management highlighted a significant opportunity in AI servers, with expected revenue contribution of 7-9% in FY24E, up from 1% in FY23. The anticipated value per compute tray is estimated between USD 500 and USD 1,000 [1][6]. - The integration of Voltaira's automotive electronics is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth, alongside the anticipated increase in AirPods shipments and enhancements in AI server product offerings [1][10].

Investment Rating - FIT Hon Teng maintains a BUY rating with a new target price of HK$2 40 based on 11x FY24E P/E [2][13] Core View - FIT Hon Teng's 1Q24 results were in line with expectations driven by recovery in PC/server markets solid Voltaira business and strong Networking segment [2] - The company is expected to benefit from AirPods ramp-up integration of Voltaira auto electronics business and AI server/networking products in 2H24E [2] - Revenue and net profit are forecasted to rebound 12% and 52% YoY respectively in FY24E [2] - The stock's recent correction is attributed to profit-taking after a 101% rally in the past three months [2] Financial Performance - 1Q24 revenue reached US$965mn a 12% YoY increase while net profit was US$10 2mn compared to a loss of US$9 3mn in 1Q23 [2] - Gross profit margin improved by 450bps YoY to 20 3% due to a better product mix [2] - EV segment revenue surged 205% YoY driven by the Voltaira merger while Computing and Networking segments grew 6% and 9% YoY respectively [2] - FY24E revenue is projected at US$4 715mn with a 12 4% YoY growth and net profit is expected to reach US$199 6mn a 51 4% YoY increase [3][9] Segment Analysis - EV Mobility segment revenue jumped 205% YoY in 1Q24 due to the Voltaira merger [7] - Networking segment grew 9% YoY driven by AI demand and new CPU-related products [2] - Computing segment increased 6% YoY supported by market recovery [2] AI Server Opportunity - FIT Hon Teng expects US$500-1 000 content value per compute tray for AI servers in FY24E [2] - AI revenue share is projected to be 7-9% in FY24E up from 1% in FY23 [2] Valuation - The stock is trading at 8 9x/6 7x FY24/25E P/E which is considered attractive given multiple growth drivers [2][13] - The new target price of HK$2 40 is based on 11x FY24E P/E reflecting accelerated growth and profitability recovery [13] Growth Drivers - Key catalysts include AirPods shipments AI server product updates and continued revenue upside from auto business consolidation [13] - The company's "3+3 Strategy" is expected to drive accelerated growth and profitability recovery [13]

\ \\\\\\\\\\ 2024 年 5 月 13 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 行业支持政策有望落地，业绩复苏可期 年初至今，MSCI中国医疗指数下跌17.2%，跑输MSCI中国指数26.5%。近期随着 市场上涨，医药行业也大幅反弹。4月19日以来MSCI中国医疗指数反弹 15%；同 中国医药行业 期行业指数的动态市盈率从 23.0倍回升至 26.8倍，但仍低于 12年历史均值。大部 分龙头个股的动态市盈率仍然远低于历史平均水平。预计医疗设备以旧换新的政策 武 煜, CFA (852) 3900 0842 即将落地，政策力度大、范围广、持续周期长，将有效刺激医疗设备的需求释放。 jillwu@cmbi.com.hk 同时，我们预期创新药、创新器械的支持政策将持续落地，期待全国性政策出台。 王云逸 我们预计，随着行业支持性政策陆续落地、行业监管常态化进行，新冠基数影响逐 (852) 3916 1729 渐消退，中国医药行业有望回归健康增长。 cathywang@cmbi.com.hk  医疗设备更新落地箭在弦上，期待医院招标复苏。5 月初，发改委召开大规模设 备更新工作和消费 ...