公用事业 2026 年 02 月 02 日 时代人行业书 申万宏源研究微信服务号 量电价机制完善 天然气 - 申万公用环保周报(26/1/24~26/1/30) 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 苏研究说 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 电力：国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合印发《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》。各电源 o 精准定价，分类理顺调节性电源收益逻辑。对于电网侧独立新型储能,政策首次在国家层面明确 容量电价机制。对于抽水蓄能，政策采用 "新老划断" 的差异化策略。煤电明确 "通过容量电价 回收固定成本的比例不低于 50%" （折合每年每千瓦 165 元），直接增厚保供电源收益。对于气 电， ...

行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 02 日 容量电价机制完善 天然气消费持续 增长 看好 —— 申万公用环保周报(26/1/24~26/1/30) 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行业点评 目录 | 1．电力： 完善容量电价机制 精准定价平稳收益 4 | | | --- | --- | | 2．燃气：全球气价高位震荡 天然气消费持续增长 5 | | | 3．一周行情回顾 | 10 | | 4．公司及行业动态 11 | | | 5．重点公司估值表 13 | | 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信 ...

2025年下半年，香港真实世界资产（RWA）进入实质性落地阶段。在金融机构率先推进链上国债、票据与基金通证化之后，实体产业开始成为RWA新的 扩展方向。其中，中华煤气旗下子公司"名气通"以境外银行授信为底层资产完成通证化结构搭建，成为香港公用事业领域首个制度化RWA样本。 与此前以金融资产为主的RWA项目不同，该案例的核心意义不在于单一融资创新，而在于验证了一条可复制的产业路径：即在成熟监管体系下，将传统 产业信用资产纳入链上金融系统，实现"产业信用+区块链金融"的协同运行。这一模式为公用事业、基础设施、新能源等长期资本密集型行业提供了新的 融资工具，也标志着RWA开始从金融机构主导阶段，迈入实体产业深度参与的新周期。 从行业演进角度看，中华煤气项目并非个别事件，而是2025年RWA由概念验证走向规模化应用的重要节点，其资产结构选择与技术路径设计具备清晰的 行业示范价值。 中华煤气本次RWA项目并未直接将燃气管网、数据中心或基础设施资产上链，而是选择以名气通获得的境外银行授信额度作为底层资产载体。这一设计 体现了产业RWA在早期阶段的现实路径：优先选择金融属性明确、权属结构清晰、现金流稳定的信用类资产作为起点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for renewable energy and gas companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in overall power generation in 2025, primarily driven by wind and solar energy contributions, while traditional coal power generation shows a decline [8][9]. - The extreme cold weather in the U.S. has led to a significant spike in natural gas prices due to increased demand and supply constraints [18][22]. - The report suggests various investment opportunities across different segments of the energy sector, including coal power, hydropower, nuclear power, renewable energy, and gas companies [18][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Generation - In December 2025, total power generation was 858.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. Coal power generation decreased by 3.2%, while renewable sources like wind and solar saw significant growth [10][11]. - For the entire year of 2025, total power generation reached 9715.9 billion kWh, up 2.2% from the previous year, with coal power down by 1.0% and solar power up by 24.4% [15][19]. 2. Natural Gas - As of January 23, 2026, the Henry Hub spot price surged to $30.72/mmBtu, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 903.53%. European gas prices also rose significantly due to low inventory levels and increased demand [20][28]. - The report notes that the extreme cold weather has tightened supply and demand dynamics, leading to higher global gas prices, particularly in Europe and Northeast Asia [22][37]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For coal power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their integrated coal and power operations [18]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are favored due to favorable conditions for energy storage and reduced capital expenditures [19]. - Nuclear power companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are highlighted for their stable cost structures and growth potential [18]. - Renewable energy operators such as Xinte Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended as new market rules enhance the stability of returns [18]. - Gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Liuhe are suggested for their potential recovery in profitability due to cost reductions and improved pricing mechanisms [43].

多家A股上市公司2025年业绩大幅预增。 深南电A（000037）1月22日晚间发布2025年度业绩预告，预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润为1.50亿— 1.80亿元，比上年同期增长584.66%—721.59%。报告期内，公司控股子公司完成土地收储及发电机组设 备等资产转让，确认资产处置损益约2.8亿—2.9亿元；同时，报告期内，公司聚焦主业提质增效，强化 经营管理，主营业务经营业绩稳步提升。 | | | 立 秋 八 八 | | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | 归属于上市 公司股东的 | 盈利:15,000 万元—18,000 万元 | 盈利: 2,190.88 万 | | 净利润 | 比上年同期增长:584.66%- | 元 | | | 721. 59% | | | 扣除非经常 性损益后的 | 亏损:7,000万元-8,600万元 | 亏损:8,750.81 万 | | 净利润 | | 元 | | 基本每股收 | 盈利:0.2489元/股-0.2986元/ | 盈利:0.0363元/股 | | 益 | 股 | | 闰土股份（002440）发布2025年度业绩 ...

多家A股上市公司2025年业绩大幅预增。 深南电A(000037)1月22日晚间发布2025年度业绩预告，预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润为1.50亿— 1.80亿元，比上年同期增长584.66%—721.59%。报告期内，公司控股子公司完成土地收储及发电机组设 备等资产转让，确认资产处置损益约2.8亿—2.9亿元；同时，报告期内，公司聚焦主业提质增效，强化 经营管理，主营业务经营业绩稳步提升。 | | | 立 创 个: 八人 | | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | 归属于上市 公司股东的 | 盈利:15,000 万元—18,000 万元 | 盈利: 2,190.88 万 | | 净利润 | 比上年同期增长:584.66% | 元 | | | 721. 59% | | | 扣除非经常 性损益后的 | 亏损:7,000万元-8,600万元 | 亏损:8,750.81 万 | | 净利润 | | 元 | | 基本每股收 | 盈利:0.2489元/股-0.2986元/ | 盈利:0.0363 元/股 | | 益 | 股 | | | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | ...

（原标题：最新《Newsweek》刊登黄维义总裁专稿） 昨日，美国《新闻周刊》（Newsweek）刊登了香港中华煤气行政总裁黄维义对公司163年发展历程的回 顾，讲述了香港中华煤气从传统燃气业务向智慧能源转型的创新实践与战略布局。 香港中华煤气有限公司（简称"香港中华煤气"）是亚洲历史最悠久的公用事业企业之一。公司成立于 1862年，最初为香港街道提供照明服务，如今业务已远不止于初期范畴。今天，香港中华煤气不仅是香 港能源体系的核心，也正引领着内地的低碳转型进程。 163年来，香港中华煤气始终顺应各阶段能源发展需求。公司拥有长达3,700公里的管道网络，目前为香 港超过200万户家庭提供服务，其运营建立在安全、可靠和创新的基础之上。尤为引人注目的是，这一 历史积累正被重新赋予面向未来的价值。香港中华煤气行政总裁黄维义表示，"几十年来，我们的管道 燃气中约50%的成分是氢气。在香港已经安全服务了几代人。" 随着氢能在全球能源市场中的地位日益突出，这一历史基础为公司带来了天然优势。公司管道网络输送 着氢气含量近半的混合气体，这使香港中华煤气得以开拓新型氢气提取和转化应用。黄维义解释 道："氢能应用拓展了我们的业务 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, recommending various companies within these industries for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China's total electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kWh in 2025, reaching 10.4 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [7][8]. - The growth in electricity consumption is driven primarily by the secondary and tertiary industries, which together contribute nearly 80% of the total increase in electricity demand [8]. - The report notes significant growth in electricity consumption from high-end manufacturing, digital economy, and new infrastructure projects, such as charging stations and 5G base stations, which are expected to see growth rates exceeding 30% [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Sector - In 2025, the total electricity consumption is expected to reach 10.4 trillion kWh, with a 5% year-on-year increase. The first, second, and third industries, along with urban and rural residential electricity consumption, are projected to grow by 9.9%, 3.7%, 8.2%, and 6.3% respectively [7][9]. - The second industry remains the largest consumer of electricity, contributing 48% to the growth, while the third industry contributes 31% [9][13]. - The report recommends investments in coal-fired power companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, as well as large hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment [15][16]. 2. Gas Sector - The report indicates that colder temperatures are expected to increase heating demand, leading to a rebound in gas prices across Europe and Asia. As of January 16, the Henry Hub spot price was $3.06/mmBtu, with a weekly increase of 6.77% [17][24]. - The report highlights that European gas prices have surged due to low inventory levels and increased heating demand, with the TTF spot price reaching €38.10/MWh, up 31.38% week-on-week [17][24]. - Recommendations include investing in integrated gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, as well as gas trading companies like New Hope and New Energy [38]. 3. Market Performance - The report notes that the public utility, power, and environmental sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of January 12 to January 16, 2026 [40]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent initiatives in various provinces aim to enhance green energy and environmental standards, including the establishment of green mining standards in Guangxi and guidelines for industrial microgrid construction [46][47]. - The report also mentions significant corporate announcements, including mergers and acquisitions in the energy sector, which may impact market dynamics [50].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities initiates coverage of Hong Kong and China Gas (00003) with an "underperform" rating and a target price of HKD 6.5, citing improved profit outlook due to lower gas costs but insufficient free cash flow to cover dividends [1] Group 1: Profit Outlook - The group's profit outlook has improved this year due to a decrease in gas costs [1] - However, the free cash flow is projected to be insufficient to cover dividend payments, limiting the potential for dividend increases in the coming years [1] Group 2: Dividend Forecast - The company is expected to maintain stable dividends in the future, with a maximum dividend payout of HKD 6.5 billion, which is not fully supported by the projected free cash flow of HKD 35 billion to HKD 47 billion [1] - The current dividend yield of approximately 4.9% is comparable to other Hong Kong utility peers but is considered unattractive by Bank of America Securities [1] Group 3: Market Environment - The company faces a challenging market environment, and its restructuring efforts are unlikely to provide significant short-term benefits [1] - Net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are approximately 4% lower than market expectations, further constraining the company's ability to outperform the market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Bank of America Securities initiates coverage of Hong Kong and China Gas (00003) with an "underperform" rating and a target price of HKD 6.5 [1] - The group's profit outlook has improved this year due to a decrease in gas costs, but the free cash flow is still insufficient to cover dividends, suggesting that dividends can only be maintained at current levels in the coming years [1] - The restructuring measures of the company may not provide significant short-term benefits, and the challenging market environment, along with weaker dividend prospects compared to peers, makes the current dividend yield of approximately 4.9% unattractive [1] Group 2 - Bank of America Securities forecasts the company's net profit for 2025 to 2027 to be 4% lower than the market consensus, with free cash flow expected to range between HKD 3.5 billion and HKD 4.7 billion, which is still insufficient to cover the HKD 6.5 billion in dividends [1] - The likelihood of the company increasing its per-share dividend is considered remote, which will limit the potential for the stock to outperform the market [1]