Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and current status of the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520890), which has seen a significant decrease in both share count and total assets in 2024 [1][2] - As of September 19, 2024, the fund's latest share count is 58.08 million, with a total size of 82.26 million yuan, reflecting a 52.84% decrease in shares and a 43.79% decrease in size compared to December 31, 2024 [1][2] - The fund's management fee is 0.50% annually, and the custody fee is 0.10% annually, with its performance benchmark being the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Low Volatility Index [1] Group 2 - The current fund manager is Li Qian, who has managed the fund since its inception on September 4, 2024, achieving a return of 41.80% during her tenure [2] - The top holdings of the fund include Shougang Resources, Far East Horizon, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and others, with the largest holding being Shougang Resources at 3.83% [2] - The fund has seen a trading volume of 394 million yuan over the last 20 trading days, with an average daily trading amount of 19.72 million yuan [1]

Group 1 - Companies in Hong Kong are leveraging a new Swap Connect rule to hedge against yuan interest-rate risks, following the introduction of the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) as a floating reference-rate option [1][3][5] - The Swap Connect initiative, launched in 2023, allows global investors to access mainland China's interbank financial derivatives market, enhancing product offerings for managing interest-rate risks [2][6] - The new measure is expected to increase the utilization of Hong Kong's offshore yuan market by global businesses, attracting more international investors to the mainland capital market [7][8] Group 2 - The one-year LPR provides a benchmark closely aligned with mainland China's lending market, aiding offshore corporate treasuries in managing yuan exposures [3][5] - Financial institutions, including Standard Chartered Bank, have begun facilitating transactions using the one-year LPR, marking a significant step in offering more flexible and effective yuan interest-rate hedging tools [6][8] - The enhancement of Swap Connect is anticipated to accelerate the internationalization of the yuan, as it allows offshore investors to manage interest-rate risks more effectively [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a total of 125 basis points from Q4 2025 to Q1 2027, which will benefit Hong Kong real estate companies by reducing interest expenses and stimulating the real estate market [1] - The Chief Executive's recent policy report introduced more flexible land acquisition and exchange models, which is believed to accelerate the development of the Northern Metropolis and help Hysan Development (00012) monetize its substantial farmland reserves [1] - Hysan Development holds approximately 41.9 million square feet of farmland with a historical average cost of HKD 227 per square foot, while recent land acquisition prices exceed HKD 1,000 per square foot, indicating significant potential gains in the coming years [1] Group 2 - The company has slightly raised its profit forecasts for Hysan Development for 2025 to 2027, reflecting the impact of reduced interest expenses, and upgraded its rating to "Buy" with a target price increase from HKD 25.9 to HKD 32.68 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a total of 125 basis points between Q4 2025 and Q1 2027, which will benefit Hong Kong real estate companies by reducing interest expenses and stimulating the real estate market [1] - The Chief Executive's recent policy report introduced more flexible land acquisition and exchange models, which is believed to accelerate the development of the Northern Metropolis and help Hysan Development (00012) monetize its substantial farmland reserves [1] - Hysan Development holds approximately 41.9 million square feet of farmland with a historical average cost of HKD 227 per square foot, while recent land acquisition prices exceed HKD 1,000 per square foot, indicating significant potential gains in the coming years [1] Group 2 - The company has slightly raised its profit forecasts for Hysan Development for 2025 to 2027 to reflect the impact of reduced interest expenses and upgraded its rating to "Buy" with a target price increase from HKD 25.9 to HKD 32.68 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a total of 125 basis points, with two cuts in Q4 2025 and three cuts in Q1 2026 to 2027 [1] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to benefit Hong Kong real estate companies by reducing interest expenses and stimulating the real estate market, which will enhance sales and profit margins in the real estate development sector [1] - The Hong Kong government's latest policy report introduces a more flexible land acquisition and exchange model, which is believed to accelerate the development of the Northern Metropolis and help Henderson Land Development monetize its substantial farmland reserves in the area [1] Group 2 - The report upgrades the rating for Henderson Land Development to "Buy," adjusting the net asset value discount from 55% to 50%, with a target price increase from HKD 25.9 to HKD 32.68 [1]

Group 1 - UBS reports that following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's adjustment of the overnight discount rate, Hong Kong banks have lowered the prime rate by 12.5 basis points to 5.125%, aligning with market expectations [1] - After the adjustment, the new mortgage rate for newly built residential properties will decrease from 3.5% to 3.375% [1] - UBS maintains that Hong Kong property prices will remain stable in 2025, with a potential moderate recovery of 0% to 5% in 2026 after inventory digestion [1] Group 2 - Among developers, UBS favors the performance of Sino Land, Henderson Land, and Kerry Properties over New World Development due to the latter's unattractive dividend yield [1] - UBS also prefers Hang Lung Properties, as the decline in HIBOR will reduce its interest expenses [1] - UBS has raised the target price for Sino Land by 14% to HKD 11.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting a narrowing of the net asset value discount from 40% to 35%, supported by strong sales at Victoria Harbour and The Pacific Place, and a potential reduction in scrip dividend arrangements [1]

市场预计未来18 个月内美联储将再降息5 次。据彭博的共识预测，美联储将在2025 年4 季度再降息2 次，2026 年至2027 年1 季度再降息3 次，总计将进一步降息125 个基点。我们认为，降息进程将在2025 年剩余时间和2026 年持续，这将有利于提振香港房地产公司：1）降低利息支出；2）进一步激活房地 产市场，促进房地产开发板块的销售和利润率回升；以及3）投资物业组合的潜在资产增值。 施政报告将加速北部都会区的发展。同时，中国香港特别行政区行政长官李家超在9 月17 日发布的施政 报告中，公布更灵活土地收地和交换模式，我们认为北部都会区加快开发将有助恒基地产在该地区的庞 大农田土地储备变现。恒基地产拥有约4,190 万平方尺的农地土地储备，历史平均成本仅为每平方呎227 港元（近期土地收地价超过每平方呎1,000 港元），北部都会区开发的加速或将为恒基地产在未来几年 带来可观的潜在收益、盈利和现金流。 上调评级至买入，目标价上调至32.68 港元：我们相信利率进一步下行后，公司核心业务短期风险已有 所下降，基于美联储降息带来的市场资金流动性、资产价值提升预期以及北部都会区农地可能加速变现 的影响 ...

至于领展房产基金(00823)与九龙仓置业(01997)可能逊于同行，因REIT互联互通进展有限，而且吸引旅 客的措施不足;分别予"买入"及"中性"评级，目标价为44.2港元及20港元。 瑞银发布研报称，新一份《施政报告》未有如该行预期中削减住宅印花税，"房地产互联互通"没有任何 进展，亦没有REIT互联互通的时间表。符合该行预测的是，政府加速推进北部都会区发展，并将3,000 万至5,000万港元的豪宅投资纳入新资本投资者入境计划。对私人住宅市场而言，政府未有推出公屋租 置计划，并将居屋白表配额由60%降至50%，均属正面讯号。 该行预期，地产商股价将因缺乏减税措施而轻微承压，但恒基地产(00012)表现或好过同行，因其受惠 于农地收回加速、补地价付款灵活性提升，以及市区重建项目获批更高容积率，现予"买入"评级，目标 价29港元。 ...

该行预期，地产商股价将因缺乏减税措施而轻微承压，但恒基地产(00012)表现或好过同行，因其受惠 于农地收回加速、补地价付款灵活性提升，以及市区重建项目获批更高容积率，现予"买入"评级，目标 价29港元。 至于领展房产基金(00823)与九龙仓置业(01997)可能逊于同行，因REIT互联互通进展有限，而且吸引旅 客的措施不足;分别予"买入"及"中性"评级，目标价为44.2港元及20港元。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，新一份《施政报告》未有如该行预期中削减住宅印花税，"房地 产互联互通"没有任何进展，亦没有REIT互联互通的时间表。符合该行预测的是，政府加速推进北部都 会区发展，并将3,000万至5,000万港元的豪宅投资纳入新资本投资者入境计划。对私人住宅市场而言， 政府未有推出公屋租置计划，并将居屋白表配额由60%降至50%，均属正面讯号。 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price raised to HKD 32.68, reflecting a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of HKD 27.96 [1][5]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to further lower interest expenses for the company, enhancing its valuation and performance in the real estate market [2][5]. - The acceleration of development in the Northern Metropolis area, as announced in the Chief Executive's policy address, is anticipated to benefit the company significantly due to its substantial agricultural land reserves in the region [5]. - The report projects an increase in the company's net asset value per share to HKD 65.4, up from HKD 57.6, based on improved liquidity and asset value expectations following the interest rate cuts [5]. Financial Overview - The company is expected to generate revenues of HKD 27,570 million in 2023, with a projected growth of 14.9% in 2025 [4][9]. - Core profit estimates for 2025 are set at HKD 9,257 million, reflecting a decrease of 5.3% compared to the previous year [4][9]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 14.6 times in 2025, indicating a slight increase from 13.8 times in 2024 [4][9]. - The dividend yield is expected to remain stable at 6.4% over the forecast period [4][9]. Market Context - The report highlights that the anticipated further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a total reduction of 125 basis points by early 2027, which would positively impact the Hong Kong real estate sector [5]. - The company holds approximately 41.9 million square feet of agricultural land reserves, with a historical average cost of HKD 227 per square foot, which is significantly lower than recent land acquisition prices [5].