Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Energy reported its mid-year performance for 2025, showing a slight increase in revenue but a decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders, leading to a proposed interim dividend of 0.1791 HKD per share [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 97.543 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 4.97%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.161 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.36%, slightly below expectations [1] - The company's natural gas sales revenue reached 80.078 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 6.06%, but the tax-pre profit from natural gas sales decreased by 10.55% to 4.477 billion CNY [2] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 45% for 2025, with a current dividend yield of approximately 4.4% [4] Group 2: Natural Gas Sales - Total natural gas sales volume in the first half of 2025 was 29.095 billion m³, a year-on-year increase of 10.05%, with retail gas volume at 16.666 billion m³, up 2.23% [2] - The company added 5 new city gas projects and 398,800 new users, bringing the total user base to 16.8526 million by the end of the first half of 2025 [2] - The gross margin for natural gas sales was 0.44 CNY/m³, a decrease of 0.01 CNY/m³ year-on-year, attributed to a decline in sales volume from commercial and refueling stations [2] Group 3: LNG and LPG Performance - The average load factor of LNG receiving stations reached 86.8%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, with LNG loading volume increasing by 75.5% [3] - Tax-pre profit from LNG processing and storage grew by 11.4% to 1.836 billion CNY, with steady profit growth from both receiving stations and processing plants [3] - LPG sales volume increased by 4.9% to 3.0684 million tons, but tax-pre profit from LPG business decreased by 3.03% to 544 million CNY due to a decline in unit selling price [3]

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Energy reported a revenue of 97.5 billion yuan for 1H25, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.16 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year, which was below the forecast of 3.41 billion yuan by Huatai Securities [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The retail gas volume for 1H25 increased by 2.2% year-on-year to 16.67 billion cubic meters, with industrial gas volume growing by 8.0%, while commercial and residential gas volumes decreased by 1.5% and 3.6% respectively [2] - The average selling price difference for 1H25 decreased by 1 cent year-on-year to 0.44 yuan, influenced by changes in sales gas structure and rising contract gas prices in Q2 [2] - The tax pre-profit for the natural gas sales segment decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in distribution and connection gross profit [2] Group 2: LNG Segment - The LNG factory achieved a tax pre-profit of 140 million yuan in 1H25, marking a historical high, with an average processing load rate of 57.1% across 14 operational factories [3] - The average load rate for LNG receiving stations was 86.8% in 1H25, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for the load rate to remain around 90% from 2025 to 2027 [2][3] - The company is constructing a 3 million tons/year LNG receiving station in Fujian, expected to contribute profit increments post-2027, and the Jiangsu LNG receiving station's third phase is anticipated to add 6.25 million tons/year of unloading capacity by 2029 [3] Group 3: Future Projections and Valuation - The profit forecast for Kunlun Energy's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been revised down by 8.0%, 10.4%, and 13.2% to 6.15 billion, 6.49 billion, and 6.84 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.71, 0.75, and 0.79 yuan [3] - The target price has been adjusted to 8.58 HKD from a previous value of 9.21 HKD, based on an 11x PE for 2025E, which is higher than the three-year average of 7.6x PE [3]

分销与贸易业务盈利能力仍存下行压力。剔除补贴减少影响外，我们测算公司天然气销售业务盈利仍有 所下降，我们认为主因1H25 LNG 现货价格走弱导致天然气分销与贸易业务的盈利能力出现下行，向前 看，考虑到2026 年起国际LNG 供需关系或趋于宽松，我们认为部分对LNG 现货价格敏感度较高的分销 与贸易气量的盈利能力或仍存下行压力。 机构：中金公司 研究员：严蓓娜/李唐懿/裘孝锋 1H25 业绩低于我们预期 公司公布1H25 业绩：收入975.4 亿元，YoY+5%；归母净利润31.6 亿元，YoY-4%，低于我们预期，主 因部分老旧管网改造已于2024 年结束，应确认补贴减少导致1H25 其他收益净额同比减少49%至3.8 亿 元。 1H25 公司天然气销售量同比+10%至291 亿方，其中分销与贸易气量同比+22.6%至124 亿方，零售天然 气量同比+2.2%至167 亿方（工业气量+8.0% YoY），零售气价差0.44 元/方，YoY-0.01 元/方，新增用户 39.9 万户，YoY-11.2%，接收站平均负荷率86.8%，YoY+1.4ppt； LNG 工厂平均负荷率57.1%，YoY -1.3p ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a downward revision of Kunlun Energy's (00135) profit forecasts for the next two years by 8% and 10% due to a decline in retail gas sales growth predictions [1] Financial Performance - Kunlun Energy's profit for the first half of the year decreased by 4.4% to 3.16 billion RMB, achieving only 45% of the original annual forecast [1] - The company's core profit is expected to remain stable at approximately 6.4 billion RMB this year, with projected year-on-year growth of 5.5% and 6.3% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [1] - The interim dividend increased by 1.2% year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 45.46%, slightly above the annual payout guidance [1] Sales and Growth Projections - Despite low growth in retail gas volume, the company added five city gas projects in the first half and expects to acquire another five projects in the second half, which will enhance annual gas volume contributions [1] - The company anticipates that the retail gas volume growth rate in the second half will be higher than that of the first half, with an expected year-on-year increase of 4.5% for the year, compared to the company's guidance of 5% [1] - The expected gross margin for gas sales is projected to remain at 0.44 RMB per cubic meter, while LNG processing volume is expected to increase by 1.6% year-on-year [1] Profitability of LNG Segment - The tax-pre profit for the LNG segment is projected to double to 260 million RMB this year, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [1]

中银国际发布研报称，昆仑能源(00135)上半年净利润同比下跌4%至31.61亿元人民币，较该行预测低 7%，主要由于自天然气销售业务零售销量、单位毛利及其他收益均低于预期。由于下半年通常有较高 销售及行政开支入帐，中银国际预期昆仑能源下半年盈利较上半年再下跌17%，另将2025至2027年每立 方米单位毛利预测下调0.03元人民币，相应将2025至2027年盈利预测下调9%至13%，并将目标价从 10.08港元下调至9.6港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，昆仑能源(00135)上半年净利润同比下跌4%至31.61亿元人民 币，较该行预测低7%，主要由于自天然气销售业务零售销量、单位毛利及其他收益均低于预期。由于 下半年通常有较高销售及行政开支入帐，中银国际预期昆仑能源下半年盈利较上半年再下跌17%，另将 2025至2027年每立方米单位毛利预测下调0.03元人民币，相应将2025至2027年盈利预测下调9%至13%， 并将目标价从10.08港元下调至9.6港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a downward revision of Kunlun Energy's profit forecasts for the next two years by 8% and 10%, reflecting a decrease in retail gas sales growth expectations [1] Financial Performance - Kunlun Energy's profit for the first half of the year decreased by 4.4% year-on-year to 3.16 billion RMB, achieving only 45% of the original annual forecast [1] - The pre-tax profit from the gas sales business fell by 10.6%, which was the main reason for the performance being below expectations [1] - The company declared a mid-year dividend that increased by 1.2%, with a payout ratio of 45.46%, slightly above the annual payout guidance [1] Future Projections - The core profit for this year is expected to remain stable at approximately 6.4 billion RMB, with projected year-on-year growth of 5.5% and 6.3% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [1] - Despite low growth in retail gas volume, the company has added five city gas projects in the first half and expects to acquire another five projects in the second half, which will enhance annual gas volume contributions [1] - The company anticipates that the retail gas volume growth rate in the second half will be higher than that of the first half, with an expected year-on-year increase of 4.5% for the year [1] Price Target and Rating - The target price for Kunlun Energy has been adjusted from 9.02 HKD to 8.85 HKD, although the dividend yield remains attractive, and the company continues to hold a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that Kunlun Energy's after-tax net profit for the first half of the year decreased by 4% year-on-year to 3.2 billion, which is largely in line with expectations but may disappoint some investors who anticipated flat year-on-year results [1] Financial Performance - The interim dividend increased by 1% year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 45%, meeting expectations [1] - The pre-tax profits from natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sales fell by 10% and 3% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to a decline in unit gross margins and weak retail gas volume growth [1] Forecast Adjustments - The company has revised its retail gas volume growth forecast for the year from 8% to 5% and has lowered its natural gas profit forecasts for the period [1] - The after-tax profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 6% to 7% [1] - The target price has been adjusted down from HKD 8.7 to HKD 8.3, maintaining a "neutral" rating due to limited growth potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has revised down its net profit forecasts for Kunlun Energy for the years 2025 to 2027 by 6.2%, 7.3%, and 9% respectively, due to slowing retail natural gas sales growth and a slowdown in LNG processing, which cannot be fully offset by the increase in LPG sales [1] Summary by Category Company Analysis - The target price for Kunlun Energy has been reduced from HKD 8.7 to HKD 8.4 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The negative impact on Kunlun Energy's performance is attributed to the slowdown in retail natural gas sales and LNG processing [1] Industry Insights - Citigroup's preferred choice in the industry is New Hope Energy, highlighting the potential upside from its privatization [1]

港股石油股普遍上涨，其中，上海石油化工涨3.6%，中海油田服务、中国石油化工涨超2%，中国石油 股份、中国海洋石油涨近1%。 消息上，彭博引述知情人士称，中国政府据报计划对石油化工行业进行全面调整，淘汰小规模设施，对 老旧设施进行升级改造，投资转向新特材料领域。遏制行业内低附加值领域的长期产能过剩的措施可能 在下个月内出台。具体方案正在等待工信部的最终批覆。据知情人士称，根据拟议的措施，超过20年的 石化设施将需要进行改造以提高产量，这部分约占全国总量的40%。 最新数据显示，美国原油库存近期出现了超预期下降9，同时汽油等成品油需求也较为旺盛，这在短期 内为油价提供了支撑。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00338 | 上海石油化工股 | 1.440 | 3.60% | | 02883 | 中海油田服务 | 7.330 | 2.37% | | 00386 | 中国石油化工股 | 4.500 | 2.04% | | 00135 | 昆仑能源 | 7.420 | 1.09% | | 00857 | 中国石油股份 | 7.520 | 0. ...