Core Viewpoint - The ongoing equity battle for China Baoan has intensified, with Shaoguan High-tech increasing its stake to 18%, closely trailing behind Shenzhen State-owned Assets, which holds 18.58% [2][4][6]. Group 1: Shareholding Changes - Shaoguan High-tech acquired 25,792,106 shares of China Baoan from September 12 to September 24, 2025, representing a 1.00% increase in total shareholding [3][6]. - Following this transaction, Shaoguan High-tech's total shareholding rose to 464,258,571 shares, accounting for 18.00% of the total share capital [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the share increase, China Baoan's stock price surged over 6%, bringing its market capitalization to 31.131 billion [2][6]. Group 3: Historical Context - The equity struggle for China Baoan began in 2020, with Shaoguan High-tech initially increasing its stake to 10% and later surpassing other shareholders to become the largest stakeholder by 2021 [4][7]. - The competition has evolved into a strategic battle between Shaoguan High-tech, backed by Guangdong's private investment platform, and Shenzhen State-owned Assets, which aims to maintain influence over local enterprises [7][8]. Group 4: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, China Baoan reported total revenue of 10.839 billion, an increase of 8.07% year-on-year, and a net profit of 244 million, reflecting a 24.51% growth compared to the previous year [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a significant decline in construction revenue while maintaining stable growth in operational business and a rapid increase in heating supply. The dividend per share (DPS) is steadily increasing, indicating potential for future dividend growth and company value reassessment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of HKD 14.304 billion, a year-on-year decline of 8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 2.207 billion, down 10% year-on-year due to a significant drop in construction revenue and foreign exchange losses [2]. - Operational service revenue increased by 5% to HKD 9.943 billion, with specific growth in environmental energy (6%), environmental water (13%), and green environmental services (1%) [2]. - Construction service revenue decreased by 49% to HKD 1.844 billion, accounting for 13% of total revenue, with notable declines in environmental energy (70%), environmental water (17%), and green construction services (74%) [2]. Group 2: Profitability and Efficiency - The increase in operational service revenue contributed to an overall gross margin improvement of 5.53 percentage points to 44.26%, and the net profit margin improved by 0.84 percentage points to 19.44% [2]. - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased by 0.97 percentage points to 63.30%, indicating improved financial stability [2]. - The volume of municipal solid waste processed increased by 2% to 28.57 million tons, and the steam supply volume grew by 39%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [2]. Group 3: Dividend and Cash Flow - The DPS for H1 2025 is HKD 0.15, up 7% from HKD 0.14 in the same period of 2024, with a payout ratio of 41.76% [3]. - The company is maintaining a trend of increasing total dividends despite declining performance, signaling optimism for future dividend potential [3]. - Capital expenditures are being reduced due to the significant drop in construction revenue, leading to an improvement in free cash flow [3].

机构：华泰证券 公司在建福建LNG 接收站300 万吨/年，我们预计有望在2027 年后贡献利润增量、并协助公司拓展福建 的天然气终端市场；江苏LNG 接收站三期有望在2029 年新增接卸能力625 万吨/年。1H25 公司LNG 工 厂实现税前利润1.4 亿元、14 座持续运行工厂的平均加工负荷率57.1%（yoy-1.3pp）；考虑到LNG工厂 利润释放，我们预计2025年LNG板块税前利润yoy+5.6%。 下调盈利预测，下调目标价至8.58 港币 下调零售气量增速和新增接驳、上调LNG 和LPG 利润，我们将昆仑能源2025-27 年归母（ 核心） 净利 预测分别下调8.0%/10.4/13.2% 至61.5/64.9/68.4 亿元，对应EPS 0.71/0.75/0.79 元。目标价8.58 港币（前 值：9.21 港币，基于11x 2025E PE），基于11x 2025E PE 和港币兑人民币中间价0.91。目标PE 高于三年 平均7.6xPE（FTM 未来12 个月预期），派息扩张有望带来公司长期价值重估，但盈利增速低于我们此 前预期，故小幅下调PE 溢价率。 风险提示：内需增长放缓；并购交 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported lower-than-expected performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 97.5 billion yuan (up 5.0% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.16 billion yuan (down 4.4% year-on-year) [1][4] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.166 yuan per share, representing a payout ratio of 45.5% [1] - The long-term value reassessment of the company is viewed positively, with expectations for dual growth in earnings and dividends [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's natural gas retail volume increased by 2.2% year-on-year to 16.67 billion cubic meters, with industrial volume up 8.0% but commercial and residential volumes down by 1.5% and 3.6% respectively [2] - The average selling price difference for natural gas decreased by 1 cent year-on-year to 0.44 yuan, influenced by changes in sales structure and rising contract gas prices in Q2 [2] - The tax pre-profit for the natural gas sales segment decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, primarily due to declining distribution and connection gross margins [2] LNG Segment - The company's LNG receiving station average load factor was 86.8% (up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year) in 1H25, with expectations to maintain an average load factor of 90% from 2025 to 2027 [3] - The LNG segment achieved a tax pre-profit of 140 million yuan in 1H25, with expectations for a year-on-year profit increase of 5.6% in 2025 [3] Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with net profit estimates reduced by 8.0%, 10.4%, and 13.2% to 6.15 billion, 6.49 billion, and 6.84 billion yuan respectively [4] - The target price has been lowered to 8.58 HKD from a previous 9.21 HKD, based on an 11x PE for 2025E [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is optimistic about long-term aluminum prices and plans to enhance its asset value through a significant acquisition and restructuring strategy [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition and Restructuring - Hongchuang Holdings, a subsidiary of China Hongqiao, intends to acquire 100% of Hongtuo Industrial for approximately 63.518 billion yuan, which will dilute the company's shareholding from 95.30% to about 88.99% [1] - The acquisition targets Hongtuo Industrial, which has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 6.46 million tons and an approved alumina production capacity of 19 million tons [1] - The restructuring is expected to enhance the company's asset securitization level and market influence, alongside a significant increase in dividend payout ratio to over 60% in 2024 [1] Group 2: Cost Reduction and Production Contributions - The decline in coal prices is expected to lower the company's electricity costs, with the average coal price at Qinhuangdao Port being 703 yuan/ton in the first five months of 2025, down from 872 yuan/ton in 2024 [1] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, in which the company has a stake, is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, contributing significantly to the company's performance [2] Group 3: Market Outlook and Profit Forecast - Despite potential short-term demand fluctuations in electrolytic aluminum, the supply side is constrained, and demand from sectors like new energy vehicles remains strong, leading to a tight supply-demand balance [2] - The company maintains a profit forecast of 16.129 billion yuan, 17.751 billion yuan, and 21.285 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, with a target price of 15.37 HKD based on an 8.5x PE valuation for 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is optimistic about long-term aluminum prices and highlights its strong dividend attributes, maintaining a leading position in the aluminum industry [1][2] - A significant asset restructuring is underway, with the company planning to acquire 100% of Hongtuo Industrial for approximately 63.518 billion RMB, which is expected to enhance the company's market influence and asset securitization [2] - The decline in energy prices is anticipated to reduce the company's costs, particularly in the Shandong region, where self-supplied power is prevalent [3] - The company expects to see profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum segment from the second half of 2025 to 2026, despite short-term demand fluctuations [4] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 16.129 billion RMB, 17.751 billion RMB, and 21.285 billion RMB respectively [5] - The report estimates a target price of 15.37 HKD based on a PE ratio of 8.5 for 2025, reflecting an increase in the dividend payout ratio to over 60% [5][9] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 138.58 billion RMB, with a slight decline expected compared to 2024 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is optimistic about long-term aluminum prices and has a strong dividend profile, which supports the investment thesis [1][2] - The planned acquisition of 100% equity in Hongtuo Industrial by the holding company Hongchuang Holdings is expected to enhance the company's market influence and asset securitization level [2] - The decline in energy prices is anticipated to reduce costs, while the upcoming production of the Simandou iron ore project is expected to contribute positively to the company's performance [3] Summary by Sections Acquisition and Restructuring - Hongchuang Holdings plans to issue shares to acquire 100% of Hongtuo Industrial for approximately 635.18 billion RMB, which will slightly dilute the company's shareholding from 95.30% to about 88.99% [2] Cost and Production Outlook - The average coal price at Qinhuangdao Port for the first five months of 2025 was 703 RMB/ton, down from 872 RMB/ton in 2024, which is expected to lower electricity costs in Shandong [3] - The Simandou iron ore project is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, with a designed capacity of 60 million tons per year [3] Aluminum Price and Profitability - Short-term demand for electrolytic aluminum may face seasonal declines, but supply constraints and high demand in sectors like new energy vehicles are expected to keep prices stable [4] - The company forecasts a gradual increase in aluminum prices from 2025 to 2026, with a projected net profit of 161.29 billion RMB in 2025 [5] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 161.29 billion RMB, 177.51 billion RMB, and 212.85 billion RMB respectively [5] - The target price is set at 15.37 HKD, with a historical average PE ratio of 7.03X since 2017 [5][9]