证券研究报告 中国宏桥 (1378 HK) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 公司价值或迎来重估 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 06 日│中国香港 | 基本金属及加工 | 6 月 4 日中国宏桥（1378.HK）出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会 上公司主要介绍了其控股公司宏创控股拟对宏拓实业收购和电解铝能源成 本下降等情况，并阐述了对铝价长期维持乐观。公司高分红属性突出，作为 铝行业龙头，我们维持买入评级。 旗下核心资产计划重组，公司价值有望迎来二次重估 根据公告，中国宏桥控股公司宏创控股拟向宏拓实业的九名股东发行股份以 购买宏拓实业 100%股权，交易对价约 635.18 亿元。宏拓实业为中国宏桥 旗下国内核心资产所属主体，其拥有电解铝年产能 646 万吨及氧化铝年核 准产能 1900 万吨。本次资产重组对中国宏桥持有宏拓实业股份有一定摊薄， 重组前后公司持有股权比例将从 95.30%下降至约 88.99%，但通过此次资 产重组，有利于提升公司资产证券化水平以及市场影响力，叠加公司 24 年 较大幅度提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is optimistic about long-term aluminum prices and has a strong dividend profile, which supports the investment thesis [1][2] - The planned acquisition of 100% equity in Hongtuo Industrial by the holding company Hongchuang Holdings is expected to enhance the company's market influence and asset securitization level [2] - The decline in energy prices is anticipated to reduce costs, while the upcoming production of the Simandou iron ore project is expected to contribute positively to the company's performance [3] Summary by Sections Acquisition and Restructuring - Hongchuang Holdings plans to issue shares to acquire 100% of Hongtuo Industrial for approximately 635.18 billion RMB, which will slightly dilute the company's shareholding from 95.30% to about 88.99% [2] Cost and Production Outlook - The average coal price at Qinhuangdao Port for the first five months of 2025 was 703 RMB/ton, down from 872 RMB/ton in 2024, which is expected to lower electricity costs in Shandong [3] - The Simandou iron ore project is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, with a designed capacity of 60 million tons per year [3] Aluminum Price and Profitability - Short-term demand for electrolytic aluminum may face seasonal declines, but supply constraints and high demand in sectors like new energy vehicles are expected to keep prices stable [4] - The company forecasts a gradual increase in aluminum prices from 2025 to 2026, with a projected net profit of 161.29 billion RMB in 2025 [5] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 161.29 billion RMB, 177.51 billion RMB, and 212.85 billion RMB respectively [5] - The target price is set at 15.37 HKD, with a historical average PE ratio of 7.03X since 2017 [5][9]