Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has revised down its net profit forecasts for Kunlun Energy for the years 2025 to 2027 by 6.2%, 7.3%, and 9% respectively, due to slowing retail natural gas sales growth and a slowdown in LNG processing, which cannot be fully offset by the increase in LPG sales [1] Summary by Category Company Analysis - The target price for Kunlun Energy has been reduced from HKD 8.7 to HKD 8.4 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The negative impact on Kunlun Energy's performance is attributed to the slowdown in retail natural gas sales and LNG processing [1] Industry Insights - Citigroup's preferred choice in the industry is New Hope Energy, highlighting the potential upside from its privatization [1]

港股石油股普遍上涨，其中，上海石油化工涨3.6%，中海油田服务、中国石油化工涨超2%，中国石油 股份、中国海洋石油涨近1%。 消息上，彭博引述知情人士称，中国政府据报计划对石油化工行业进行全面调整，淘汰小规模设施，对 老旧设施进行升级改造，投资转向新特材料领域。遏制行业内低附加值领域的长期产能过剩的措施可能 在下个月内出台。具体方案正在等待工信部的最终批覆。据知情人士称，根据拟议的措施，超过20年的 石化设施将需要进行改造以提高产量，这部分约占全国总量的40%。 最新数据显示，美国原油库存近期出现了超预期下降9，同时汽油等成品油需求也较为旺盛，这在短期 内为油价提供了支撑。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00338 | 上海石油化工股 | 1.440 | 3.60% | | 02883 | 中海油田服务 | 7.330 | 2.37% | | 00386 | 中国石油化工股 | 4.500 | 2.04% | | 00135 | 昆仑能源 | 7.420 | 1.09% | | 00857 | 中国石油股份 | 7.520 | 0. ...

中金发布研报称，由于昆仑能源(00135)分销与贸易板块盈利存不确定性，下调2025/2026净利润 9.9%/10.1%至60.19亿元/62.05亿元。当前股价对应2025/2026年10.1x/9.6x P/E。维持跑赢行业评级，综合 考虑盈利预测调整及公司中长期派息潜力，该行下调目标价5.9%至8.00港元，对应2025/202610.5x/10.1x P/E，较当前股价有4.6%的上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 1H25业绩低于该行预期 公司公布1H25业绩：收入975.4亿元，YoY+5%;归母净利润31.6亿元，YoY-4%，低于该行预期，主因部 分老旧管网改造已于2024年结束，应确认补贴减少导致1H25其他收益净额同比减少49%至3.8亿元。 1H25公司天然气销售量同比+10%至291亿方，其中分销与贸易气量同比+22.6%至124亿方，零售天然气 量同比+2.2%至167亿方(工业气量+8.0%YoY)，零售气价差0.44元/方，YoY-0.01元/方，新增用户39.9万 户，YoY-11.2%，接收站平均负荷率86.8%，YoY+1.4ppt;LNG工厂平均负荷率57.1%，YoY-1 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the net profit forecasts for Kunlun Energy for 2025 and 2026 by 9.9% and 10.1% to CNY 6.019 billion and CNY 6.205 billion respectively, due to uncertainties in the distribution and trading segment's profitability [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 performance was below expectations, with revenue of CNY 97.54 billion (YoY +5%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 3.16 billion (YoY -4%), primarily due to a reduction in subsidies leading to a 49% YoY decrease in other income [2] - Natural gas sales volume increased by 10% YoY to 29.1 billion cubic meters, with distribution and trading gas volume up 22.6% YoY to 12.4 billion cubic meters [2] - Retail natural gas volume grew by 2.2% YoY to 16.7 billion cubic meters, with an average retail gas price difference of CNY 0.44 per cubic meter, down CNY 0.01 YoY [2] Group 2: Operational Guidance - The company adjusted several operational guidance metrics for 2025, including retail gas volume growth to +5% YoY (previously +8% YoY) and LNG processing volume to +0-2% YoY (previously +7% YoY), reflecting weak downstream gas demand [3] - The company maintained its target for new user additions at 600,000 to 700,000 for the year and an average LNG receiving station load factor of 85-90% [3] Group 3: Profitability and Dividend Policy - The profitability of the distribution and trading business faces downward pressure, primarily due to weaker LNG spot prices impacting natural gas sales profitability [4] - Despite a slight decline in performance, the company maintained a modest increase in dividends, with potential for a long-term increase in the payout ratio to 55-60% due to strong cash flow and cash reserves [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Chinese government plans to comprehensively adjust the petrochemical industry, eliminating small-scale facilities and upgrading old ones, while shifting investments towards new materials [1] - Proposed measures may be introduced next month to curb long-term overcapacity in low value-added sectors, with specific plans awaiting final approval from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - Over 40% of petrochemical facilities in China, which are over 20 years old, will need to be upgraded to enhance production capacity [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong oil stocks generally rose, with Shanghai Petrochemical up 3.6%, CNOOC Services and Sinopec up over 2%, and PetroChina and CNOOC up nearly 1% [2] - Recent data shows a surprising decline of 9 in U.S. crude oil inventories, alongside strong demand for gasoline and other refined products, providing short-term support for oil prices [1]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The fixed income market has shown a "N" shaped trend this year, with a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds re-emerging as market dynamics shift [1][25] - The bond market's main narrative has changed, indicating that current market behavior is driven more by risk appetite and asset reallocation rather than fundamental or liquidity factors [25][26] - The "look at stocks, act on bonds" strategy may continue in the third quarter, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize in the range of 1.75%-1.80% [1][28] Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, commercial banks reported a net profit of 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.20%, but with signs of marginal improvement compared to the first quarter [3] - City commercial banks showed the most significant performance improvement, with a total profit of 176.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10% but a notable increase in growth rate [3] - The outlook for the banking sector suggests that net interest margins may stabilize in the short term due to regulatory controls on deposit renewals and interbank rates [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Baiyunshan (600332) achieved a revenue of 41.835 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.93%, with a net profit of 2.516 billion yuan, down 1.31% [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its health product segment and enhancing its international market presence, with significant growth in overseas revenue [6][9] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 due to increased competition and insufficient demand, lowering expected revenues to 78.013 billion yuan and 81.185 billion yuan respectively [9] Group 4: Energy Sector Insights - Kunlun Energy (00135) reported a revenue of 97.543 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.97%, with a total gas sales volume growth of 10.05% [42][43] - The company's LNG processing and transportation segment performed well, achieving record profitability despite a slight decrease in revenue [43][44] - The outlook for the energy sector remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in gas sales and operational efficiency improvements [43][44] Group 5: Retail and Consumer Goods - Xiaoshangcheng (600415) reported a revenue of 7.713 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.99%, with a net profit growth of 16.78% [10] - The company is focusing on expanding its trade services and has successfully completed trials for various consumer goods, indicating strong potential for future growth [10] - The outlook for the retail sector is optimistic, with expectations for continued growth driven by new market openings and the Belt and Road Initiative [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunlun Energy [2][7][17] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 97.543 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.97%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.36% to 3.161 billion RMB, slightly below expectations [7] - Natural gas sales volume increased by 10.05% to 29.095 billion m³, driven by a significant rise in industrial gas consumption [7] - The average load rate of LNG receiving stations improved to 86.8%, with a substantial increase in LNG loading volume by 75.5% [7] - The company plans to increase the dividend payout ratio to 45% for 2025, with a current dividend yield of approximately 4.4% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 177.354 billion RMB (2023), 187.046 billion RMB (2024), 193.901 billion RMB (2025E), 204.563 billion RMB (2026E), and 213.881 billion RMB (2027E) [6][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.682 billion RMB (2023), 5.960 billion RMB (2024), 5.980 billion RMB (2025E), 6.254 billion RMB (2026E), and 6.573 billion RMB (2027E) [6][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.66 RMB (2023), 0.69 RMB (2024), 0.69 RMB (2025E), 0.72 RMB (2026E), and 0.76 RMB (2027E) [6][8] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025-2027 is estimated at 10.2, 9.8, and 9.3 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported lower-than-expected performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 97.5 billion yuan (up 5.0% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.16 billion yuan (down 4.4% year-on-year) [1][4] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.166 yuan per share, representing a payout ratio of 45.5% [1] - The long-term value reassessment of the company is viewed positively, with expectations for dual growth in earnings and dividends [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's natural gas retail volume increased by 2.2% year-on-year to 16.67 billion cubic meters, with industrial volume up 8.0% but commercial and residential volumes down by 1.5% and 3.6% respectively [2] - The average selling price difference for natural gas decreased by 1 cent year-on-year to 0.44 yuan, influenced by changes in sales structure and rising contract gas prices in Q2 [2] - The tax pre-profit for the natural gas sales segment decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, primarily due to declining distribution and connection gross margins [2] LNG Segment - The company's LNG receiving station average load factor was 86.8% (up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year) in 1H25, with expectations to maintain an average load factor of 90% from 2025 to 2027 [3] - The LNG segment achieved a tax pre-profit of 140 million yuan in 1H25, with expectations for a year-on-year profit increase of 5.6% in 2025 [3] Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with net profit estimates reduced by 8.0%, 10.4%, and 13.2% to 6.15 billion, 6.49 billion, and 6.84 billion yuan respectively [4] - The target price has been lowered to 8.58 HKD from a previous 9.21 HKD, based on an 11x PE for 2025E [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expectation of over 20% relative return within the next six months [6][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 97.543 billion for the first half of 2025, an increase of RMB 4.621 billion or 4.97% year-on-year. However, the profit before tax decreased by RMB 5.12 billion or 7.06% to RMB 6.737 billion, and the profit attributable to shareholders fell by RMB 1.44 billion or 4.36% to RMB 3.161 billion. The interim dividend was set at RMB 0.166 per share, slightly up from RMB 0.164 per share in the same period last year [1]. Sales Performance - The total natural gas sales volume reached 29.095 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.05%. Retail gas volume was 16.666 billion cubic meters, up 2.23%. The breakdown shows industrial gas volume at 12.47 billion cubic meters (+8%), commercial gas at 1.693 billion cubic meters (-1.5%), residential gas at 2.014 billion cubic meters (-3.6%), and gas station sales at 0.488 billion cubic meters (-48.5%). Distribution and trade saw a significant increase of 22.6% to 12.429 billion cubic meters. The average sales price of natural gas was RMB 2.77 per cubic meter, down RMB 0.1 from the previous year [2]. Processing and Transportation Performance - The LNG processing and transportation segment generated revenue of RMB 4.371 billion, a slight decrease of 1.58%. However, profit before tax increased by 11.41% to RMB 1.836 billion. The LNG plants achieved a record profit of RMB 140 million, with a 25% reduction in maintenance cycles. The total LNG gasification and loading volume at the receiving stations reached 7.899 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.66% [3]. Oil and LPG Sales - The average selling price of crude oil decreased from USD 67.77 per barrel to USD 62.88 per barrel, leading to a 15.91% drop in crude oil sales revenue to RMB 0.74 billion. LPG sales volume increased by 4.87% to 3.0684 million tons, with revenue rising by 1.03% to RMB 13.02 billion. The profit before tax for the LPG segment decreased by 3.03% to RMB 544 million [4]. Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - The company effectively controlled costs, reducing other sales, general, and administrative expenses to approximately RMB 1.121 billion, down 8.86% from RMB 1.230 billion in the previous year. Employee compensation costs also decreased by 10.07% to approximately RMB 2.850 billion. Capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 was RMB 1.926 billion, a significant decline of 31.6% [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to a slowdown in natural gas demand growth and a decline in international oil prices, the profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down to RMB 6.229 billion, RMB 6.696 billion, and RMB 7.213 billion, respectively, from previous estimates of RMB 6.414 billion, RMB 7.011 billion, and RMB 7.656 billion [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in 2024 Core Insights - The average revenue of the top 30 listed real estate companies in China is projected to decline by approximately 13.83% in 2024, totaling around RMB 2.77 trillion [9] - The average gross margin for these companies is expected to decrease to about 14.42%, down by 1.86% from the previous year [13] - The average net profit margin is projected to be around -10.81%, reflecting a significant decline of 12.45% compared to the previous year [16] - The average return on equity is expected to drop to approximately -20.75%, a decrease of 16.44% from 2023 [59] Summary by Sections 1. Revenue Overview - The total revenue for the top 30 listed real estate companies in 2024 is estimated at RMB 2.77 trillion, a decline of 13.83% year-on-year [9] - Financial Street leads the revenue growth with an increase of 51.74%, reaching RMB 190.75 billion [8] - 20 companies experienced revenue declines, with Midea Real Estate facing the largest drop at 94.94% [9] 2. Gross Margin Overview - The average gross margin for the top 30 companies is projected to be 14.42%, down 1.86% from the previous year [13] - Midea Real Estate shows the highest increase in gross margin at approximately 24.21% [14] - 23 companies reported a decline in gross margin, with Jinhui experiencing the largest drop of 30.80% [13] 3. Net Profit Overview - The average net profit for the top 30 companies is expected to be a loss of RMB 11.65 billion, a decline of 62.09 billion from a profit of RMB 50.44 billion in 2023 [23] - China Resources leads in net profit with RMB 336.78 billion, although this represents a 9.72% decrease from the previous year [24] - Over 70% of companies reported a decline in net profit, with Vanke transitioning from a profit of RMB 204.56 billion to a loss of approximately RMB 487.04 billion [23] 4. Inventory Overview - The total inventory for the top 30 companies is projected to be approximately RMB 60.85 billion, a decrease of 13.58% year-on-year [33] - Only one company, Ruian, reported an increase in inventory, with a growth of 16.03% [33] - Midea Real Estate experienced the largest inventory decline at 99.11% [33] 5. Liquidity Ratios - The average current ratio for the top 30 companies is expected to be 152.86%, a slight increase of 0.15% from the previous year [42] - 16 companies reported a decline in their current ratios, with Xinda showing the largest drop of 39.17% [42] 6. Cash Short-term Debt Ratio - The average cash short-term debt ratio is projected to be 1.52, a decrease of 0.11 from the previous year [54] - Ocean Group has the lowest cash short-term debt ratio at 0.01, while Binhai has the highest at 5.53 [54] 7. Return on Equity Overview - The average return on equity is expected to be -20.75%, a decline of 16.44% from 2023 [59] - Only two companies, Jinmao and New Town, are expected to report positive returns on equity [59]