申万宏源证券（000562）研究继续推荐关注航空板块，供给放缓确定性强，需求端具备弹性，同时在外 部油汇配合下航司能够释放较大业绩提升空间。 航空板块相关港股： 南方航空（600029）(01055)、中国国航（601111）(00753)、东方航空(00670)、国泰航空(00293)、中银 航空租赁(02588)、中国民航信息网络（00696）等。 根据空客2024最新GMF报告预测，中长期全球航空客流年复合增速为3.6%，全球核心航空市场人均乘 机次数均会得到较大增长。其中中国人均乘机次数将从2024年的0.6次增长至2044年的1.8次。亚太、中 东及非洲等发展中航空市场增速持续领先，2044年其航空运力份额将超过欧美地区，达到50%以上。 国泰海通证券研报表示，2025年上半年机队小幅增长，暑运机队周转提升空间极为有限，且时刻控量加 班受限，预计运投同比或仅小幅增长，其中国内运投或几无增长。暑运亲子游将继续旺盛，供需预期乐 观。近期部分航司局部市场预售票价略作调整，保障暑运预售进度良好。考虑2024年暑运票价低基数， 预计2025年暑运票价将同比上升，航司盈利有望再创新高。中国航空已进入供给低增时代 ...

【解剖大盘】 昨日市场气势如虹，很多人都在憧憬会复制去年"9.24"行情，但现实相当骨感，今天快速消退，两地指 数均出现调整，恒指跳空低开，全天水下徘徊，收盘跌0.61%。 港股的风向标依旧在美股。当前美股又出现了看空的声音，瑞银警告美股本轮逼空行情已至尾声：其追 踪的逼空指数近期暴涨43%。阿波罗全球资产管理公司首席经济学家Torsten Sl k认为美国正处于滞胀的 关键拐点，经济增长放缓而通胀居高不下。Sl k预测2025年GDP增长将放缓至1.2%，通胀率可能徘徊在 3%，失业率将升至4.4%或更高，未来12个月经济衰退的可能性为25%。 再从鲍威尔最新的表态来看，其也表达了忧虑：美国政府部门所收集的经济数据的质量。简单说就是怀 疑经济数据不可信。这个可能性是存在的，比如说美国劳工统计局因为前期受制于预算削减，采集的数 据难免偷工减料，有不少是估算的数据。而且通常都是高估的。其实大家都心照不宣，也不是什么秘 密，只有在很恶化掩盖不住的时候才容易被爆出来，眼下被爆说明情况不乐观。 特朗普也心知肚明，相当着急。据报道，特朗普正考虑最早今夏或秋天就宣布接替鲍威尔的美联储主席 人选，远早于传统的3-4个月过渡 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Outperform" rating for the aviation sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry relative to the overall market performance [72]. Core Insights - The global aviation market is expected to see sustained growth in demand over the next two decades, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% for global air passenger traffic, particularly driven by the Asia-Pacific region [3][5]. - The aircraft supply chain is currently facing significant disruptions, with recovery efforts progressing slowly due to multiple challenges [4][32]. - The demand for aircraft is projected to remain high, with the global fleet expected to double to 49,220 aircraft by 2044, driven by both fleet expansion and the need for fleet renewal [5][13]. - The narrow-body aircraft segment is anticipated to dominate future demand, accounting for 81% of the total aircraft demand [20][21]. - The supply of aircraft has fallen short of demand, leading to increased values and rental rates for aircraft and components [5][63]. Summary by Sections Future Demand Outlook - The aviation demand is projected to grow significantly, with the average number of flights per person in China increasing from 0.6 in 2024 to 1.8 by 2044 [6][10]. - Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa are expected to surpass North America and Europe in terms of aviation capacity share, reaching over 50% by 2044 [10][11]. Aircraft Supply Chain Challenges - The aircraft supply chain is currently disordered, with significant gaps in supply for narrow-body and wide-body aircraft, estimated at 1,200 and 300 units respectively [32][49]. - Manufacturers are struggling with delivery capabilities, with production levels still below pre-pandemic figures [37][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the aviation sector due to limited supply growth and resilient demand, with specific recommendations for airlines such as China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [71][72]. - It also highlights opportunities in global aircraft leasing companies and maintenance service providers [71].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The Middle East tensions have led to increased oil shipping rates and insurance premiums, while the sentiment in the capesize market has cooled significantly, resulting in a sharp decline in daily charter rates [13][14] - Cathay Pacific's passenger volume from January to May 2025 increased by 28.4% compared to the same period in 2024, with a notable rise in international travel [15][16] - SF Express reported a revenue increase of 11.34% in May 2025, with domestic express delivery volume growing by 20.1% year-on-year [22][23] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has triggered a chain reaction in the oil shipping market, with VLCC average daily charter rates rising to nearly $55,000, reflecting a more than 100% week-on-week increase [13] - Cathay Pacific's passenger volume for May 2025 increased by 36.1% year-on-year, indicating strong recovery in air travel demand [15][16] - SF Express achieved a total revenue of CNY 25.113 billion in May 2025, marking an 11.34% increase year-on-year [22] 2. High-Frequency Data Tracking 2.1 Air Logistics - The air cargo price index for Shanghai outbound flights was reported at 4,475 points, down 6.4% year-on-year [25] - Domestic cargo flights decreased by 6.76% year-on-year in May 2025, while international flights increased by 26.98% [31] 2.2 Shipping Ports - The SCFI index for Shanghai's export container shipping was reported at 1,869.59 points, down 10.47% week-on-week and down 46.21% year-on-year [39] - The total cargo throughput at national ports reached 5.755 billion tons in the first four months of 2025, a 3.7% year-on-year increase [50] 2.3 Express Logistics - In May 2025, the express delivery volume reached 17.32 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 17.20% [52] - The total express delivery volume from January to May 2025 was 78.77 billion pieces, reflecting a 20.1% year-on-year growth [23]

Group 1 - The core event was a successful integrated marketing campaign by Suning Group's 盛世长城 for Cathay Pacific, showcasing the upgraded Boeing 777-300ER cabin to mainland travelers [1] - The campaign utilized the "Power of One" model to create a comprehensive marketing strategy, engaging over 40,000 attendees across five major cities in China [2] - The online social media buzz around the campaign was significant, with the hashtag 国泰航空全新客舱 generating over 2.5 million views and more than 3,000 quality user-generated content posts [2] Group 2 - The new cabin experience was designed to provide a high-end flying experience, featuring real seat samples and immersive areas like the "in-flight craftsmanship selection" and "art cloud screen" [5] - The collaboration between Cathay Pacific and the Suning team focused on meticulous planning and efficient execution, aiming to enhance brand visibility and attract interest from high-end consumers [6]

Key Points - The cross-border payment link between mainland China and Hong Kong is set to launch on June 22, 2025 [4] - The Hong Kong dollar reached the weak end of its trading band against the US dollar at 7.85 for the first time in over two years [4] - Cathay Pacific Airways reported a 28.4% year-on-year increase in passenger volume for the first five months [4] - Bank of China plans to increase its capital in Bank of China Europe by no more than €300 million [4] - Garmin Group Holdings issued a profit warning, expecting an annual net loss of approximately HKD 280 million to HKD 310 million [4] - China Intelligent Transportation's subsidiary intends to acquire 40% equity in Beijing Zhongzhi Runbang Technology for HKD 80 million [4] - Deson Development International issued a profit warning, anticipating a net loss attributable to shareholders of no less than HKD 750 million [4] - International Commercial Settlement issued a profit warning, expecting a comprehensive loss of approximately HKD 400 million, a significant increase of about 220% year-on-year [4] - Jieli Trading announced an annual profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 63.94 million, a year-on-year increase of 653.86% [4] - Geely Automobile plans to participate in establishing a joint venture to enhance its brand influence and expand market coverage in Brazil [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Cathay Pacific's passenger turnover increased by 36.1% year-on-year in May, indicating a strong recovery in travel demand [1] - Additionally, the cargo load factor for Cathay Pacific grew by 12.2% year-on-year, reflecting an increase in freight activity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The frequent adjustments in global trade policies are reshaping the flow of people and goods, leading to the emergence of new air routes and a significant increase in international flight operations, particularly with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [1][2][5]. Group 1: International Flight Operations - As of mid-May, the average weekly international passenger flights executed by Chinese and foreign airlines reached 6,428, marking a 25.4% increase compared to the same period last year, with flights to Belt and Road countries accounting for approximately 72% of this total [2][5]. - The recovery rate of international passenger flights in China has improved significantly, with the overall recovery rate reaching 87.6% in May, while flights to the United States remain low at 26.6% [2][8]. - New air routes are being established, such as the direct flights from Guangdong to Laos and Beijing to Tajikistan, indicating a rapid expansion of cross-border air connections [4][5]. Group 2: Cargo Flight Developments - In 2025, the international air cargo sector is witnessing a new layout, with significant flight volumes to traditional markets like the US, Japan, and Europe, while also expanding towards emerging markets in Asia [11][12][13]. - The logistics route layout reflects the direct demand from import and export businesses, with notable growth in trade with Southeast Asia and the Middle East, where export growth exceeds 10% [14][16]. - The air cargo market in China is increasingly driven by cross-border e-commerce, which accounts for about 60% of the cargo volume, highlighting the shift towards high-value logistics services [16][17].

题图 | 国泰航空 6月17日，素有"航空业奥斯卡"之称的Skytrax全球最佳航空公司榜单在法国巴黎揭晓。 中国香港的国泰航空与中国大陆的海南航空分别位列全球第三和第十，卡塔尔航空第九次获得全球第一。 | | | | | | | 全球最佳航空公司 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | स्र सि | 第1名 | 第2名 | 第3名 | 第4名 | 第5名 | 第6名 | 第7名 | 第8名 | 第9名 | 第10名 | | 2021年 | 卡塔尔航空 | 新加坡航空 | 全日空 | 阿联酋航空 | 日本航空 | 国泰航空 | 长荣航空 | 澳洲航空 | 海南航空 | 法航 | | 2022年 | 卡塔尔航空 | 新加坡航空 | 阿联酋航空 全日空 | | 澳洲航空 | 日本航空 | 土耳其航空 | 法航 | 大韩航空 | 瑞士国际航空 | | 2023年 | 新加坡航空 | 卡塔尔航空 | 全日空 阿联酋航空 | | 日本航空 | 土耳其航空 | 法航 | 国泰航空 | 长荣航空 | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 269 points or 1.12%, ending at 23,710, with significant pressure on large technology stocks [2][3] - Major technology stocks such as Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan experienced declines of 1.1%, 2.3%, and 3.5% respectively [3] - The overall market turnover was 181.93 billion [2] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Industry Dynamics - The Hong Kong International Airport is enhancing multimodal transport services in collaboration with Zhuhai Airport, aiming to increase passenger and cargo flow [6][7] - The Hong Kong government signed a cooperation plan with Shanghai to deepen financial market connectivity and support Shanghai enterprises in raising funds in Hong Kong [8] - The central government supports the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, aiming to enhance its global competitiveness and influence [9] Group 3: Company News - Hong Kong International Holdings reported a significant loss of 786 million, with a revenue drop of 55.51% year-on-year [11] - Hong Kong Express plans to maintain its flight routes to Japan despite market fluctuations, indicating confidence in long-term demand [12] - ST Pharm's caffeine product received EU CEP certification, enhancing its international market presence and brand image [13] Group 4: Strategic Developments - Standard Chartered's new chairman emphasized Hong Kong's strategic importance and its role as a major profit contributor for the group [14]