Industry Overview - Copper futures have surpassed $12,000 per ton, marking a potential record annual increase since 2009, driven by trade tensions, supply constraints, and optimistic long-term demand outlook [1] - The recent surge in copper prices is primarily fueled by supply-demand imbalances, trade frictions, and strong demand from the renewable energy and AI sectors [1] - Concerns over tightening global supply are escalating, with major mining operations in the Americas, Africa, and Asia facing shutdowns, leading to significant supply gaps [1] - Deutsche Bank warns that production from the largest global miners is expected to decline by 3% this year, with further reductions anticipated in 2026 [1] - The market is currently experiencing a notable supply shortage, with 2025 projected to be a year of severe supply disruptions due to operational challenges at several large mines [1] Demand Drivers - The strategic importance of copper in energy transition is increasing, with high growth rates in investments for power grid and data center construction, further boosting copper demand [2] - The demand for copper in global new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, and AI is expected to reach between 3.8 million to 4 million tons this year [2] - Major Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup, maintain an optimistic outlook for copper prices, with Citigroup suggesting prices could reach $15,000 under a bullish scenario [2] - Citic Securities anticipates that the dual narrative of "copper hoarding in the U.S." and "domestic production cuts" will accelerate, potentially widening the supply gap by 60% [2] Company Insights - Jiangxi Copper Co., as a leading copper smelting company in China, has an annual production capacity of 2.1 million tons of cathode copper, with over 70% of its revenue derived from copper business [3] - Zijin Mining's Tibet Julong Copper Mine Phase II project is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, significantly enhancing the company's copper supply capacity [3] - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, with net profit rising by 55.45% [3] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. achieved a revenue of 145.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a net profit of 14.28 billion yuan, marking a 72.61% year-on-year increase [4] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. produced 543,400 tons of copper in the first three quarters, a 14.14% increase year-on-year, achieving a historical high for the period [4]

花旗发布研究报告，预计江西铜业股份明年铜冶炼业务毛利将同比下降，长期冶炼及精炼业务也面临下 行压力。不过，因铜、金及硫酸价格有望提高，公司明年整体毛利或上升。花旗将江西铜业H股目标价 从27.9港元提升至39.8港元，维持"买入"评级。 江西铜业股份(00358)午后跌近4%，截至发稿，跌3.11%，报36.8港元，成交额5.58港元。 消息面上，12月19日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将2026年铜精 矿加工精炼费用Benchmark分别定为0美元/吨和0美分/磅，低于2025年的21.25美元/吨和2.125美分/磅。 国信证券表示，零加工费具有很强的警示意义，可能促使相关部门出台铜冶炼行业"反内卷"措施，行业 远期格局有望向好。 来源：智通财经网 ...

江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)午后跌近4%，截至发稿，跌3.11%，报36.8港元，成交额5.58港元。 消息面上，12月19日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将2026年铜精 矿加工精炼费用Benchmark分别定为0美元/吨和0美分/磅，低于2025年的21.25美元/吨和2.125美分/磅。 国信证券表示，零加工费具有很强的警示意义，可能促使相关部门出台铜冶炼行业"反内卷"措施，行业 远期格局有望向好。 花旗发布研究报告，预计江西铜业股份明年铜冶炼业务毛利将同比下降，长期冶炼及精炼业务也面临下 行压力。不过，因铜、金及硫酸价格有望提高，公司明年整体毛利或上升。花旗将江西铜业H股目标价 从27.9港元提升至39.8港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

消息面上，12月19日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将2026年铜精 矿加工精炼费用Benchmark分别定为0美元/吨和0美分/磅，低于2025年的21.25美元/吨和2.125美分/磅。 国信证券表示，零加工费具有很强的警示意义，可能促使相关部门出台铜冶炼行业"反内卷"措施，行业 远期格局有望向好。 花旗发布研究报告，预计江西铜业股份明年铜冶炼业务毛利将同比下降，长期冶炼及精炼业务也面临下 行压力。不过，因铜、金及硫酸价格有望提高，公司明年整体毛利或上升。花旗将江西铜业H股目标价 从27.9港元提升至39.8港元，维持"买入"评级。 智通财经APP获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)午后跌近4%，截至发稿，跌3.11%，报36.8港元，成交额5.58 港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long-term contracts has been set to zero for 2026, down from $21.25 per ton in 2025, indicating a significant shift in the copper smelting industry dynamics [3][4]. - The reduction to zero processing fees is attributed to a mismatch in supply and demand between copper mines and smelting, as well as historically high levels of by-product and recovery rate revenues [3][8]. - The competitive advantage of Chinese copper smelting plants is highlighted by their leading technology and cost control, which is expected to improve the industry landscape as capacity control measures are likely to be implemented [21]. Summary by Sections Processing Fees and Market Dynamics - The processing fee for copper concentrate long-term contracts has dropped to $0 per ton for 2026, compared to $21.25 per ton in 2025, reflecting a challenging negotiation environment this year [3][4]. - The long-term contract processing fee is crucial for smelting profitability, with many large smelting plants seeing a decline in the proportion of long-term contracts due to tight copper concentrate supply [6][8]. Recovery Rates and By-Product Revenues - The recovery rate for copper smelting in China is significantly higher than the industry standard, leading to additional revenue from copper prices [8][9]. - Sulfuric acid by-product revenues have surged, with current prices nearing historical highs, contributing to the overall profitability of smelting operations [8][9]. Industry Outlook and Recommendations - The zero processing fee scenario is expected to prompt regulatory measures to control copper smelting capacity, potentially leading to a more favorable industry structure [13][21]. - Key companies in the copper smelting sector include Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper, which are well-positioned to benefit from these industry changes [21][16][17].

本文源自：智通财经网 消息面上，LME铜价飙升至创纪录高位，逼近每吨12000美元。高盛近期发布了一份2026年大宗商品报 告，其中指出，受需求强劲和供应受限因素，铜仍备受青睐。国信证券此前指，公司国内大型露天铜矿 成本低、盈利稳健，贵金属价格上涨进一步摊低铜矿成本，主导的全球最大露天钨矿投产放量，参股第 一量子即将走出低谷期，盈利潜力大，充分受益于铜价上行周期。 智通财经获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.63%，报38.26港元，成交额4.73亿港 元。 ...

消息面上，LME铜价飙升至创纪录高位，逼近每吨12000美元。高盛近期发布了一份2026年大宗商品报 告，其中指出，受需求强劲和供应受限因素，铜仍备受青睐。国信证券此前指，公司国内大型露天铜矿 成本低、盈利稳健，贵金属价格上涨进一步摊低铜矿成本，主导的全球最大露天钨矿投产放量，参股第 一量子即将走出低谷期，盈利潜力大，充分受益于铜价上行周期。 江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.63%，报38.26港元，成交额4.73亿港元。 ...

消息面上，LME铜价飙升至创纪录高位，逼近每吨12000美元。高盛近期发布了一份2026年大宗商品报 告，其中指出，受需求强劲和供应受限因素，铜仍备受青睐。国信证券此前指，公司国内大型露天铜矿 成本低、盈利稳健，贵金属价格上涨进一步摊低铜矿成本，主导的全球最大露天钨矿投产放量，参股第 一量子即将走出低谷期，盈利潜力大，充分受益于铜价上行周期。 智通财经APP获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.63%，报38.26港元，成交额4.73亿港 元。 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 项目位于阿富汗卢格尔省，其探明铜矿资源总量7.05亿吨，平均含铜1.56%，含铜金属量1100万吨。根 据规划，该项目2026年产能将提升至50万吨／年，2030年全面达产，届时将成为全球重要的铜矿生产基 地。 ...

每经AI快讯，江西铜业股份(00358.HK)午后涨超4%，现报36.68港元，成交额7.37亿港元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...