江西铜业 20251103 摘要 江西铜业三季度利润环比下滑，主因铜价上涨导致套期保值业务在期货 端产生亏损，虽现货端盈利，但会计准则和套保策略造成账面差异，影 响扣非净利润。 冶炼业务受长单价格较低影响，三季度开始增加现货采购，导致利润环 比下降，但副产品冶炼业务仍保持盈利，占公司整体利润约 15%，预计 全年行业内其他企业也能维持盈利。 国内铜冶炼厂联合减产需 TC 长单价格跌破成本线或部委政策指引，目 前 TC 谈判进行中，结果未定，减产可能性待观察；取消长协谈判将导 致定价不透明，不利于冶炼厂。 公司在产矿山无增产计划，维持 20 万吨铜精矿产量，增量依赖合作权 益矿山或并购；德兴铜矿成本较低，公司整体生产成本低于行业平均水 平。 2025 年公司利润主要来自采矿，占比约 85%，冶炼占比约 15%，冶炼 利润受益于硫酸价格上涨和金属价格维持高位，部分抵消了加工业务的 亏损。 Q&A 江西铜业 2025 年三季度的业绩情况如何？ 江西铜业 2025 年三季度实现营业收入 3,960.46 亿元，同比增长 0.98%。归 母净利润为 60.24 亿元，同比增长 20.85%。虽然三季度的业绩较二季度有所 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 江西銅業股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 600362 | 說明 | | 於上海證券交易所上市 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,075,247,405 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 2,075,247,405 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,075,247,405 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 2,075,247, ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月03日 江西铜业（600362.SH） 优于大市 铜矿盈利攀升，冶炼业务短期承压 2025Q3 归母净利润同比增长 35%。2025Q3 公司营业收入 1391 亿元，同比 增长 12.8%，归母净利润 18.5 亿元，同比增长 35.2%；扣非归母净利润 19.1 亿元，同比增长 94.7%。三季度公司毛利润 40.8 亿元，环比下降 11 亿元，主因铜精矿冶炼加工费下滑。 冶炼业务承压但总体可控。自 2023 年 11 月巴拿马铜矿关停以来，叠加全 球新建冶炼厂集中投产，铜精矿供应愈加紧张，即使大型冶炼企业，铜 精矿长单比例相较往年也有一定下滑。当前长单加工费和现货加工费劈 叉，现货加工费在-40 美元/吨以下，长单加工费在 21 美元/吨。冶炼厂 全部使用长单盈利尚可，如果使用部分现货，冶炼利润就会受到影响。 对于江西铜业而言，2025 年阴极铜产量目标 237 万吨，前三季度产量估 计 180 万吨，四季度生产压力不大。另外公司可以一定程度上灵活选择 铜精矿、冷料的使用配比，预计四季度加工费压力不会显著增加。 | 证券分析师：刘孟峦 | 证券分析师：焦方冉 | | - ...

Core Viewpoint - ST United (600358) has shown a slight increase in stock price and a notable change in shareholder structure, while its financial performance indicates a mixed outlook with rising revenues but declining net profits [1]. Shareholder Changes - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for ST United is 26,400, a decrease of 1,897 or 6.71% from June 30, 2025 [1]. - The average number of shares held per shareholder increased from 17,800 to 19,100, with an average holding value of 103,500 yuan [1]. Financial Performance Highlights - For the first three quarters of 2025, ST United reported a total revenue of 322.41 million yuan, an increase of 11.64% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 31.76 million yuan, down 15.08% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the revenue was 128 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 44.68% [1]. - The net profit for Q3 was a loss of 15.64 million yuan, a decline of 50.63% compared to the same quarter last year [1]. - The company reported a debt ratio of 84.36%, with investment income of 90,700 yuan and financial expenses of 1.099 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 6.63% [1]. Company Announcements - The board of directors of Guolv Cultural Investment Group approved the Q3 report, confirming a revenue of 322.41 million yuan and a net profit loss of 31.76 million yuan [2]. - The board also approved the use of self-owned funds for foreign exchange hedging, with a maximum transaction amount of 15 million yuan, valid for 12 months from the date of approval [2]. - The supervisory board confirmed the legality and compliance of the Q3 report's preparation and review process [2].

Core Insights - The industrial metal sector, particularly copper and aluminum, is experiencing strong performance as gold and silver prices stabilize, driven by supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical risks [2][3] Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices have surged, with LME copper futures reaching a historical high of $11,200 per ton, marking a 25% increase this year [3] - Factors contributing to the rise in copper prices include supply constraints from overseas mines, regional mismatches in inventory and demand due to U.S. tariffs, and increased consumption driven by AI data centers [4] - Analysts predict that copper prices may remain strong due to tight supply and demand balance, despite potential short-term fluctuations [6] Group 2: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices are also on the rise, with LME aluminum futures hovering around $2,900 per ton, supported by ongoing supply challenges and strong demand from the manufacturing sector [3][5] - The relationship between copper and aluminum prices is significant, with increased copper prices leading to higher aluminum demand as a substitute material [5] - Analysts expect that aluminum demand will grow, with projections indicating a 2.3% increase in global demand by 2026, driven by manufacturing recovery and new industrial applications [6][7] Group 3: Market Outlook - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding future copper prices, with some analysts suggesting a potential pullback due to lagging downstream demand [6] - The overall macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, is expected to influence commodity prices positively [7] - Despite some pessimism regarding aluminum demand in 2026, forecasts remain optimistic, anticipating growth in both domestic and overseas markets [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by favorable factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with the Copper ETF (159652) seeing substantial inflows and price increases [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has surged over 2%, attracting over 20 million yuan in capital inflows during the trading session [1]. - Key components of the non-ferrous 50 ETF, including lithium and other industrial metals, have shown strong price increases, with notable gains from Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium [3]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price reached an all-time high of 11,200 points, indicating strong market demand [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Citic Securities forecasts that copper and cobalt prices will continue to rise due to supply constraints, while lithium prices will benefit from unexpected increases in energy storage demand [5]. - The supply side is facing significant constraints, with global copper mine supply expected to enter negative growth in Q4 2024 due to production disruptions and reduced output guidance from major producers [5]. - Emerging demand from AI data centers is projected to significantly increase copper consumption, with a compound annual growth rate of 26% expected from 2023 to 2027 [6]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - The current geopolitical tensions and dollar credit risks are enhancing the financial attributes of copper, positioning it as a key reserve asset for countries [10]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut to a target range of 3.75%-4% is expected to support the price of physical assets like copper [10]. - Citic Jin Investment predicts that copper prices may return to a range of $10,000 to $12,000 per ton by Q4 2025, supported by supply-demand fundamentals and liquidity conditions [11]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high copper and gold content, with a leading position in the market [11]. - The ETF's index has shown a cumulative return of 116.5% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion, indicating strong growth potential [13]. - The projected compound annual growth rate for net profit over the next two years for the ETF's index is 16.28%, suggesting superior growth compared to peers [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant gains in the non-ferrous metal sector, with several companies experiencing notable stock price increases [1] Group 2 - China Aluminum (02600.HK) saw a rise of 10.34%, reaching HKD 10.14 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) increased by 9.53%, trading at HKD 51.7 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) rose by 5.97%, with a price of HKD 34.78 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) experienced a 5.08% increase, priced at HKD 32.66 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) gained 4.38%, reaching HKD 17.38 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant rise in the prices of non-ferrous metal stocks, driven by favorable macroeconomic factors and market sentiment following a meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Aluminum (02600) increased by 10.34%, reaching HKD 10.14 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rose by 9.53%, reaching HKD 51.7 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) saw a 5.97% increase, reaching HKD 34.78 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) increased by 5.08%, reaching HKD 32.66 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) rose by 4.38%, reaching HKD 17.38 [1] Group 2: Market Factors - The LME copper price showed strong fluctuations, reaching a historical high [1] - International gold prices rebounded after a decline to a three-week low [1] - Everbright Futures noted that the meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders boosted market sentiment, despite a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates supply tightness will drive prices of copper and cobalt higher, while lithium prices may benefit from unexpected demand in energy storage [1] - Despite recent volatility in precious metal prices, the overall bullish outlook remains unchanged [1] - The article suggests that with continued liquidity and increased efforts by countries to secure key resources, the investment interest in commodities is likely to persist [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks have shown a recovery in early trading, with significant gains for several companies in the sector [1] Company Summaries - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358.HK) increased by 6.4%, reaching HKD 34.92 [1] - China Nonferrous Mining Co., Ltd. (01258.HK) rose by 4.99%, trading at HKD 14.72 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (03993.HK) saw a gain of 3.54%, priced at HKD 17.22 [1] - Minmetals Resources Ltd. (01208.HK) experienced a 3.06% increase, with shares at HKD 7.07 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks are experiencing a rebound, driven by a significant increase in LME copper prices due to ongoing supply shortages from mines [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Jiangxi Copper Co. (00358) rose by 6.4% to HKD 34.92 - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) increased by 4.99% to HKD 14.72 - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) gained 3.54% to HKD 17.22 - Minmetals Resources (01208) climbed 3.06% to HKD 7.07 [1] Group 2: Price Trends - LME copper prices reached a historical high of USD 11,146 per ton on Wednesday due to persistent supply shortages [1] - Citigroup forecasts that copper prices will reach USD 12,000 per ton in the first half of next year, with some institutions suggesting this milestone may be achieved even sooner [1] Group 3: Economic Factors - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut [1] - This potential rate cut is seen as a catalyst for easing US-China trade tensions [1] - Huafu Securities indicates that the ongoing expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts will support copper prices in the short term, while long-term prospects remain positive due to increased investment and consumption [1]