美联储降息落地，市场普遍预期美联储明年仍维持宽松政策，提振有色金属价格。基本面供应偏紧支撑 锡价走强。近期锡价开启连续上行模式，今日沪锡主力2601合约收涨4.54%，一举突破33万元关口，刷 新2022年3月以来高位。市场看涨情绪浓厚，资金持续涌入，加权持仓量逼近12万手，再创阶段新高。 具体来看，sn2601 合约多头前 20 席位合计增持 3688 手至 29245 手，空头合计增持 4039 手至 31592 手，多空增仓力度接近。 多头阵营：东证期货、瑞达期货、国泰君安席位分别加仓 737 手、757 手、563手，成为多头的主要支 撑；浙商期货、华泰期货、新湖期货席位都只有多头上榜，今日加仓幅度均在200手以上，构成加仓的 第二梯队。国信期货、海通期货等席位小幅减仓。 空头阵营：银河期货、广发期货大幅加仓 578 手、578 手，构成空头的核心力量。东海期货、海通期货 席位分别加仓361手和273手，净空持仓增幅均超300手。其他部分席位多空持仓同时增持，净头寸变化 有限。 数据来源：文华财经 sn2602 合约多头前 20 席位合计增持 3008 手至 35025 手，空头合计增持 1784 手 ...

美联储降息落地，市场普遍预期美联储明年仍维持宽松政策，提振有色金属价格。基本面供应偏紧支撑 锡价走强，沪锡主力合约大幅飙升，截止收盘，主力合约收涨4.54%，报333000元/吨，盘中刷新2022年 3月末以来高位。 近期刚果（金）东部安全局势呈持续恶化态势。尽管该国总统齐塞克迪与卢旺达总统卡加梅已于12月4 日在华盛顿签署和平协议，但受武装团体未完成解除武装、矿产资源利益分配争议等因素制约，协议实 际约束力有限，且协议签署后，刚果（金）与 "M23 运动" 的交火仍未停止。刚果金锡在全球供给中占 有重要地位，2025年3月曾因冲突停产，近期当地局势再度紧张，市场对锡矿供应中断的担忧情绪显著 升温。 对于后市，新湖期货评论表示，当前供需基本面偏弱，淡季叠加价格不断走强压制消费，焊料等锡加工 企业订单下降，原材料采购积极性受挫。国内供应则总体平稳，冶炼厂运行变化不明显。国内库存上 升，不过总体不高，暂难形成明显压力。而海外低库存使得挤仓风险持续。当前价格更多受宏观情绪主 导。美国降息落地，国内政策面预期乐观，支撑锡价维持强势。 （文华综合） 与此同时，尼日利亚亦面临锡供应扰动风险。据新华社消息，尼日利亚总统提努 ...

截至2025年12月12日 10:01，有色金属ETF(512400)上涨1.09%，成交2.47亿元。跟踪指数中证申万有色 金属指数强势上涨1.09%，成分股锡业股份上涨3.93%，中金黄金上涨3.81%，西部矿业上涨3.36%，驰 宏锌锗，金诚信等个股跟涨。 拉长时间看，截至12月11日，有色金属ETF(512400)近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计净流入7.76 亿元。 近期，工业金属价格表现强劲，其中铜价受到多重因素推动显著走高。国开证券指出，2026年精炼铜市 场预计将面临供应紧张局面，在供不应求格局下，铜价具备震荡上行的基础；若美联储推行大幅宽松政 策，铜作为兼具商品与金融属性的品种，其投机价值将被放大，进一步推升价格。此外，全球三大交易 所铜库存结构变化带来逼仓风险，短期内可能引发铜价大幅冲高。 稀土价格有望迎来持续回暖。东方证券认为，供给端受国内开采配额增速放缓、缅甸局势动荡导致进口 中断以及美国MP矿出口停滞等多重因素影响，整体供给刚性增强；需求端则受益于新能源汽车、风 电"金九银十"旺季带来的集中采购，叠加人形机器人小批量量产释放新增量，下游补库意愿提升。在供 需错配背景下，稀土价格有 ...

3、铜方面，东方证券指出，供给紧缺、关税担忧或持续推升铜价。铜矿端与冶炼端供需矛盾或在"反内 卷"落地预期下获得缓解，冶炼费有望止跌企稳，继续看好中期铜价及冶炼费迎来齐升局面。 4、锂方面，据锂电产业链12月预排产数据，样本企业中电池排产143.3GWh，环比增长2.3%。华泰证券 认为，预计12月锂电排产环比增加，景气度持续向好，多环节产能利用率持续攀升，出现涨价。 宏观方面，美联储降息靴子落地，中信建投证券指出，只要美联储仍处于降息通道（未来仍有进一步降 息预期），有色金属价格仍有上涨动力。展望后市，东方证券指出，美联储降息周期里，供需偏紧的实 物资产，即使是较小的供需缺口也有望产生较大的价格弹性。本轮降息周期下，以铜、铝为代表的工业 金属超级周期或已来临。 无惧行情波动，资金借道ETF加仓有色金属板块的势头不减！ 截至昨日（12月11日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）近4日连续吸金，合计金额1.4 亿元，拉长时间来看，近20日累计吸金3.71亿元，反映资金看好有色金属板块后市表现，积极进场抢 筹！ 数据显示，截至12月11日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.35亿元，在全 ...

有色金属板块，如今成为了资金偏爱的"香饽饽"。 截至昨日（12月10日），揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）近3日连续吸金1.04亿元， 拉长时间来看，近20日累计吸金2.94亿元，反映资金看好有色金属板块后市表现，积极进场抢筹！ 数据显示，截至12月10日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.05亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指数 的ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。 资金为何借道ETF，积极布局有色金属板块？ 1、宏观层面，美联储如期降息，或推升有色金属价格 北京时间周四凌晨03：00，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.50%-3.75%，符 合市场"鹰派降息"预期。决议公布后，现货黄金短线拉升20美元。这是美联储连续第三次会议宣布降 息，全年的累计降息幅度达75个基点。 值得关注的是，鲍威尔表示，预计未来不会有人将加息作为主要预期。中信建投证券指出，只要美联储 仍处于降息通道（未来仍有进一步降息预期），有色金属价格仍有上涨动力。 业内人士指出，美联储降息，通常导致美元走弱，从而支撑以美元计价的有色金属价格。 2、产业层面，铝电池核心技术取得突破！铝行业高景气有 ...

细分方向来看，直接配套低轨卫星组网需求，专注空间太阳能电池用锗晶片建设项目，国内锗产业链最 完整、产销量第一的云南锗业领涨超6%；受益于锂电池板块走强，锂业龙头盛新锂能涨近6%；黄金股 亦有亮眼表现，山金国际涨超3%，四川黄金涨逾2%。权重股紫金矿业、中国铝业涨逾1%。 图：有色龙头ETF标的指数涨幅前10大成份股 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日陷 | 申万 -- 级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 云南省业 | 6.31% | September 1 Nove | 布色合屈 | 小金属 | 其他小金属 | 1934Z | 30.68亿 | | 2 | 原新推能 | 5.97% | cond | 有色合居 | 能源合同 | 45 | 296Z | 24.534Z | | 3 | 白银有色 | 4.43% | 3 | 有色全属 | 工业主属 | स्टे | 3847 | 11.41 亿 | | प | 国域,亚 | 4.29% | 100 ...

A股市场有色金属股全线上涨，其中，锡业股份涨7%，合金投资、西部矿业涨超6%，盛屯矿业、威领 股份涨超5%，洛阳钼业、紫金矿业、华友钴业涨超3%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000960 | 锡业股份 | 1 | 7.05 | 452亿 | 99.99 | | 000633 | 员要投资 | 张 | 6.40 | 35.24 乙 | 106.55 | | 601168 | 西部矿业 | | 6.02 | 609亿 | 69.25 | | 600711 | XD盛屯矿 | 1 | 5.74 | 410亿 | 175.27 | | 002667 | 威领股份 | 1 | 5.03 | 41.90亿 | 51.70 | | 001280 | C中国钮 | 1 | 3.78 | 1459亿 | 294.41 | | 603993 | 洛阳钼业 | 1 | 3.69 | 3909亿 | 183.43 | | 601899 | 紫雯蛇,亦 | 1 | 3.37 | 8234 Z | 109. ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment activities and background of Duan Yongping and his brother Duan Liping, highlighting their roles in the capital market and their family dynamics [3][9]. Group 1: Duan Yongping's Background and Investment Approach - Duan Yongping, known as the "Chinese Buffett," has transitioned from active management in his companies to focusing on investments since moving to the U.S. in 2002 [3][10]. - He is conservative in his investment strategy, primarily holding shares in Kweichow Moutai [9][10]. - Duan Yongping's philanthropic efforts include donating Kweichow Moutai shares to establish an educational fund, emphasizing his long-term commitment to the investment [9][10]. Group 2: Duan Liping's Market Activities - Duan Liping, who remains active in the domestic market, has been increasingly involved in capital market activities, particularly with Guocheng Mining [4][5]. - Guocheng Mining's stock price surged approximately 127% from 13.63 CNY to a peak of 31.04 CNY, driven by positive news and its core production capabilities in non-ferrous metals [5][6]. - Duan Liping holds a 0.56% stake in Guocheng Mining, ranking as the ninth largest circulating shareholder [6][8]. Group 3: Shareholding and Market Movements - Duan Liping, along with his wife Wang Xiaomei and Liao Yannan, has been gradually increasing their holdings in Guocheng Mining, collectively owning 1.64% of the company, with a market value of approximately 4.43 billion CNY as of late November [8][9]. - The article notes the strategic acquisition of control over Liyuan Shares by Jiangsu Bubugao Real Estate, where Duan Liping is involved, highlighting the potential for growth in the automotive parts sector [12][13]. - The acquisition was made at a relatively low price of 38 million CNY, indicating a calculated move to enter a lucrative market segment [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions and monetary policy outlook are driving investment interest in the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant inflows into related ETFs indicating positive market sentiment [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Activity - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) attracted 73.7 million yuan in a single day and a total of 205 million yuan over the past 10 days, reflecting strong investor confidence in the sector [1]. - As of November 21, the ETF's total size reached 677 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index in the market [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly the recent attack on Moscow, is expected to disrupt the supply of key metals like aluminum, nickel, and copper, potentially leading to price increases due to supply chain gaps [3]. - The conflict is also likely to stimulate demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and copper, as investors seek to hedge against geopolitical risks [3]. - Increased strategic reserve requirements for metals used in defense applications, such as antimony, are anticipated due to the ongoing military tensions [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - Recent dovish comments from the Federal Reserve's New York President suggest potential for further interest rate cuts, which could support non-ferrous metal prices [4]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have surged to 70%, indicating a strong belief in continued accommodative monetary policy [3][4]. Group 4: Sector Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the continuation of a bull market in non-ferrous metals, with various institutions forecasting sustained upward momentum [4]. - Key investment themes include industrial metals like copper and aluminum, energy metals such as lithium and cobalt, and strategic assets like gold and rare earths [4]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) and its associated funds is recommended to capture the overall sector performance while mitigating risks associated with individual metal investments [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in investment in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly through the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876), indicates strong market confidence in the future performance of this sector [1][4]. Investment Trends - On November 21, the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) attracted 73.7 million yuan in a single day, with a total of 205 million yuan accumulated over the past 10 days, reflecting positive market sentiment [1]. - As of November 21, the ETF's latest scale reached 677 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index in the market [1]. Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly the recent attack on Moscow, is expected to impact the supply of key metals like aluminum, nickel, and copper, potentially driving prices higher due to supply chain disruptions and increased sanctions against Russian metals [3]. - The conflict is also likely to stimulate demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and copper, as investors seek to hedge against geopolitical risks [3]. - Increased strategic reserve demands for metals used in defense applications, such as antimony, are anticipated due to the ongoing military tensions [3]. Macroeconomic Influences - Recent dovish comments from the Federal Reserve's New York Bank President, indicating potential for further interest rate cuts, have heightened expectations for a 70% probability of a rate cut in December [3][4]. - Analysts believe that even if the Fed pauses a rate cut, the ongoing expectation of future cuts will continue to support non-ferrous metal prices [4]. Market Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the continuation of a bull market in the non-ferrous metals sector, with various analysts highlighting three main investment themes: constrained supply and recovering demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum, explosive demand for energy metals like lithium and cobalt, and strategic assets such as gold and rare earths [4]. - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide comprehensive exposure to various metals, allowing for risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [6].