Group 1 - The global non-ferrous metal market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with international gold prices surpassing $4200 per ounce and copper prices nearing historical highs [1] - Factors driving the increase in non-ferrous metal prices include high expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 97% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch tool [1] - Supply-demand imbalances are also contributing to the price surge, with constraints on supply due to insufficient capital expenditure, a decrease in quality mines, and the strategic importance of resource commodities [1] Group 2 - A recent joint announcement by eight departments in China outlines a "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)," targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in industry value added by 2026 [2] - The plan provides a clear development path for the non-ferrous metal industry, setting specific growth objectives for the years 2025 to 2026 [2] Group 3 - Short-term outlook suggests that safe-haven sentiment will continue to support precious metal prices, while long-term factors such as expanding U.S. fiscal deficits and geopolitical conflicts may sustain demand for gold [3] - The market may experience increased volatility in gold prices due to potential discrepancies in rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions following the anticipated October rate cut [3] - Overall, the current non-ferrous metal market is benefiting from rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside tightening supply and increasing demand [3]

江西铜业10月9日公告，公司股票价格连续三个交易日内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达到20%，属于股 票交易异常波动情形。经核实，公司目前生产经营活动一切正常。近期，公司主产品中阴极铜、黄金的 市场价格累计涨幅较大。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Non-Ferrous Metals (Copper, Gold, Cobalt, Nickel) Copper Market Insights - Copper prices are expected to reach new highs in the first half of 2026, potentially hitting the range of 12,000-14,000 CNY, driven by supply constraints due to production cuts and mine shutdowns, notably at Freeport's Grasberg mine, leading to a cumulative global copper production guidance reduction of nearly 500,000 tons [1][2][3] - The global copper supply is likely to remain flat in 2026, with most companies experiencing slowed growth, although optimism about the copper market trend persists for the coming years [1][6] - Downstream industries are increasingly accepting higher copper prices, with the current acceptable price around 78,000 CNY, and demand from the State Grid and stable growth in the air conditioning and automotive sectors are expected to maintain overall copper demand growth at around 2% [1][10] Company-Specific Insights - Zijin Mining is projected to produce 190,000-200,000 tons in 2025, increasing to 250,000-270,000 tons in 2026, and reaching 300,000 tons in 2027. The company commits to a dividend payout ratio exceeding 50% from 2024 to 2026, with a dividend yield close to 5% and profits estimated at 48-49 billion CNY [1][11] - The market capitalization of Zijin Mining is expected to reach between 900 billion to 1 trillion CNY, indicating a favorable valuation compared to its long-term valuation range of 11-15 times [1][11] Smelting Industry Outlook - The smelting industry is anticipated to face tight supply next year, with leading companies unlikely to incur losses even if processing fees are zero, due to high sulfuric acid prices and expectations of reduced competition [1][12] Cobalt Market Dynamics - The cobalt market has shown strong performance, with the U.S. designating cobalt as a strategic resource. Supply tightness in the Democratic Republic of Congo and increased government quota management are driving cobalt prices up, with Huayou Cobalt expected to achieve profits exceeding 7 billion CNY in 2026 [3][16] Nickel Market Developments - Recent policy changes in Indonesia regarding nickel mining approvals are expected to tighten global nickel supply, potentially leading to price increases. Current nickel prices are around 15,500 USD/ton, with expectations to rise to 17,000 USD/ton [17][18] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals in the copper sector, as well as Huayou Cobalt in the cobalt market. In the gold sector, Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold are recommended [5][21] Long-term Market Logic - The copper market is primarily influenced by supply factors, while gold benefits from central bank and ETF purchases, and cobalt is affected by supply conditions in the Democratic Republic of Congo. These trends suggest that prices for copper, gold, and cobalt may exceed market expectations in both the short and long term [20]

国庆中秋长假期间，各类矿业资产，有色金属，贵金属资源板块普遍大涨。 北京时间10月7日凌晨消息，美国宣布与矿产勘探公司Trilogy Metals合作，美国获得Trilogy Metals 10% 的股份。美股Trilogy Metals盘后一度飙涨超230%。 10月6日，特朗普政府正在讨论入股关键金属公司Critical Metals，这或将使美国直接持有格陵兰最大规 模稀土矿项目的权益。 受此消息刺激，美股6日开盘后，Critical Metals股价大幅飙涨，一度暴涨近109%。其他美股稀土概念股 亦全线大涨，USA Rare Earth一度大涨超12%，American Resources一度大涨超13%，MP Materials一度涨 4.8%。 值得注意的是，美国政府近期已成功入股锂矿巨头Lithium Americas以及坐拥芒廷帕斯稀土矿的美国稀 土巨头MP Materials，这凸显出特朗普政府希望从全球经济所需稀土等核心矿物产量增长中获益的决 心。 铜矿：洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)、紫金矿业(02899)、中国有色矿业(01258)、五矿资源（01208）、江 西铜业（600 ...

有色金属周报 20250928 供给扰动频发，价格持续上行 2025 年 09 月 28 日 ➢ 本周（09/22-09/26）上证综指上涨 0.21%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.07%，SW 有 色指数上涨 3.56%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金+1.89%，COMEX 白银+6.92%。工业金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动-1.01%、+2.09%、-0.41%、-0.07%、- 0.75%、+0.57%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动+0.74%、- 2.20%、-10.56%、-0.40%、+0.74%、+10.78%。 ➢ 工业金属：美联储降息落地，商品供给干扰频发，伴随美国财政货币双宽松，叠 加国内"金九银十"旺季需求，工业金属价格有望继续上行。铜方面，本周 SMM 进口 铜精矿指数（周）报-40.36 美元/吨，环比增加 0.44 美元/吨，印尼格拉斯伯格铜矿因 矿泄事故全面停产近两周并且大幅下修今年产量，中国有色协会强调反对冶炼"内卷 式"竞争，供给扰动持续支撑铜价。铝方面，供应端增量有限，旺季背景下需求回暖趋 势延续，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率环比上升 ...

2025年上半年A股有色金属行业业绩高增长，确立行业向好趋势，2025Q2因高基数业绩增速回落。去年底国内转向稳 增长，一系列经济政策在上半年显效，加快经济复苏，2025年上半年国内GDP增速达5.3%超预期，叠加美联储降息释 放流动性，缓解贸易战不利影响，支撑有色金属价格上涨，巩固行业景气与业绩回升态势。具体而言，2025年上半年 营业收入同比增6.70%，业绩同比增43.88%；2025Q2单季度营业收入同比增6.03%，业绩同比增23.80%。 2025Q2 A股有色金属行业整体ROE持续上行，主要得益于资产周转率提升。杜邦分析显示，ROE从2025Q1的2.69%升 至2025Q2的3.09%，环比升0.40个百分点。其中，资产周转率从0.25提至0.28，影响ROE上行0.33个百分点，是核心因 素；销售利润率从5.26%升至5.29%，使ROE提升0.02个百分点；权益乘数从2.01升至2.05，提升ROE 0.06个百分点。 行业现金流状况持续改善，2025Q2经营净现金流同比增22%，环比增211%。虽二季度现金流通常好于一季度，但 2025Q2同比增长且连续四季度同比增长，显示企业现金状况持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing bullish trend in the precious metals market, particularly gold, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increasing investments in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a positive outlook for related ETFs and stocks [1][4][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold has achieved a six-day consecutive rise, reaching a historical high of $3,578.4 per ounce [1]. - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) experienced a market pullback, with a decrease of 0.76%, yet saw a net subscription of 28.2 million units, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The ETF recorded a net inflow of 38.1 million yuan the previous day, reflecting positive sentiment towards the sector [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Key stocks in the sector, such as Baiyin Nonferrous, Western Gold, and Jinmoly, have seen significant gains, with some reaching the daily limit [3]. - Other notable performers include Tianshan Aluminum, which rose over 5%, and China Gold, which increased by more than 4% [3]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - **Gold**: Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts will lead to lower real interest rates, driving funds into gold, which is expected to maintain its upward trend unless the U.S. economy shows strong growth with low inflation [4]. - **Copper**: The macroeconomic environment remains supportive, with expectations of further rate cuts and a favorable supply-demand balance, particularly in sectors like electric power infrastructure and new energy vehicles [4]. - **Aluminum**: The sector is experiencing a tightening supply situation, with ongoing policy support and stable demand from industries such as new energy vehicles and power [4]. - **Rare Earths**: Recent regulatory measures indicate increased control over supply, which is expected to drive prices higher, supported by the strategic importance of rare earths [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide a diversified investment approach, with significant weightings in copper, aluminum, rare earths, gold, and lithium, which helps mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors [7].

Group 1 - The A-share market's non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases, including Xiaocheng Technology rising nearly 14% and multiple companies hitting the daily limit up [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, non-ferrous metal commodity prices are on an upward trend, contributing to the profitability of the industry. Over 60% of listed companies in this sector reported year-on-year earnings growth, and 90% achieved positive net profits [1] - The outlook for the second half of the year remains optimistic regarding gold and copper price trends, suggesting that the strong performance in the non-ferrous metal sector may continue [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances include Xiaocheng Technology with a market cap of 6.151 billion and a year-to-date increase of 53.87%, and Xibu Gold with a market cap of 20 billion and a year-to-date increase of 91.86% [2] - Other companies such as Shengda Resources, Hunan Silver, and Huayu Mining also reported significant stock price increases, with year-to-date gains ranging from approximately 39.21% to 152.90% [2] - The overall market capitalization of the non-ferrous metal sector companies reflects strong investor interest, with several companies exceeding market caps of 100 billion [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.787 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.66%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 382 million yuan, up 9.49% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenues of 1.543 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.61% and a year-on-year increase of 23.94% [3]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by rising prices of tin and antimony, alongside ongoing efficiency improvements [3]. - The company has stable production levels for tin and antimony concentrates, with tin ingot production increasing by 19.30% year-on-year [4]. - Significant improvements in profitability were noted across subsidiaries, with net profits for Huaxi Mining, Gaofeng Mining, and Fozu Mining increasing by 13.71%, 47.02%, and 123.53% respectively [4]. - Future growth potential is highlighted by ongoing projects aimed at increasing mining capacity and efficiency, including the expansion of the Gaofeng mine and the successful transition of exploration rights at the Tongkeng tin-zinc mine to mining rights [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.709 billion yuan in 2025, 6.476 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.327 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.28%, 13.43%, and 13.15% respectively [5][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 829 million yuan in 2025, 953 million yuan in 2026, and 1.164 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 26.02%, 14.98%, and 22.17% respectively [5][8]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 24.32, 21.15, and 17.31 respectively [5][8].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21.093 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.35% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.062 billion yuan, up 32.76% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.303 billion yuan, reflecting a 30.55% increase [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.365 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.82% [1] - The net profit for Q2 was 562 million yuan, up 18.76% year-on-year and 12.61% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q2 was 810 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.60% and a significant quarter-on-quarter rise of 64.04% [1] Group 2: Metal Prices and Production - The increase in metal prices, with tin, copper, and zinc averaging 8.9%, 3.7%, and 4.0% respectively in H1 2025, contributed to the company's performance [2] - The total production of non-ferrous metals in H1 2025 was 181,300 tons, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, with specific production figures for tin, zinc, and copper being 48,100 tons, 69,800 tons, and 62,500 tons respectively [3] - In Q2 2025, total non-ferrous metal production was 99,100 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.6% [3] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 12.34%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points year-on-year, while Q2 2025 saw a gross profit margin of 13.06%, up 0.54 percentage points year-on-year and 1.56 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company effectively managed its expenses, with a significant reduction in the expense ratio to 3.47% in H1 2025, down 0.93 percentage points year-on-year [4] - As of June 30, 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 40.22%, a decrease of 1.31 percentage points from the end of 2024 [4] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.355 billion yuan, 2.650 billion yuan, and 2.817 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 63.07%, 12.53%, and 6.29% [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 1.43 yuan, 1.61 yuan, and 1.71 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.3, 12.7, and 11.9 [5]