从细分方向来看，黄金、铜、铝、稀土等方向均有利好催化： 放眼国际，COMEX黄金日线6连阳，继续刷新历史新高（3578.4美元/盎司）！聚焦A股，今日（9月2 日），揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）随市回调，场内价格现跌0．76%，资金逆行 加仓，该ETF获资金实时净申购2820万份！ 深交所数据显示，有色龙头ETF（159876）昨日获资金净流入3810万元，反映资金看好板块后市，逐步 进场布局！ 成份股方面，白银有色、西部黄金涨停！金钼股份涨超6%，天山铝业涨逾5%，中国黄金涨超4%，兴业 银锡、中金黄金等个股跟涨。 图：中证有色金属指数涨幅前 10 大成份股（ 9 月 2 日截至 10 ： 00 ） 1、黄金方面，华泰证券研报表示，美联储降息有望驱动美实际利率下行，或将驱动资金流入，对黄金 是利好。中长期除非美国恢复高增长低通胀并行的经济预期，并能有效降低赤字率，否则以央行为代表 的买家或延续当前购金策略，黄金的上涨趋势或持续。典型黄金公司当前估值及筹码结构均较优，且未 来有望显著受益于金价上涨和产量增加。 2、铜方面，华西证券表示，宏观层面财政货币双宽松基调依旧，9月降息预期激增， ...

Group 1 - The A-share market's non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases, including Xiaocheng Technology rising nearly 14% and multiple companies hitting the daily limit up [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, non-ferrous metal commodity prices are on an upward trend, contributing to the profitability of the industry. Over 60% of listed companies in this sector reported year-on-year earnings growth, and 90% achieved positive net profits [1] - The outlook for the second half of the year remains optimistic regarding gold and copper price trends, suggesting that the strong performance in the non-ferrous metal sector may continue [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances include Xiaocheng Technology with a market cap of 6.151 billion and a year-to-date increase of 53.87%, and Xibu Gold with a market cap of 20 billion and a year-to-date increase of 91.86% [2] - Other companies such as Shengda Resources, Hunan Silver, and Huayu Mining also reported significant stock price increases, with year-to-date gains ranging from approximately 39.21% to 152.90% [2] - The overall market capitalization of the non-ferrous metal sector companies reflects strong investor interest, with several companies exceeding market caps of 100 billion [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.787 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.66%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 382 million yuan, up 9.49% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenues of 1.543 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.61% and a year-on-year increase of 23.94% [3]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by rising prices of tin and antimony, alongside ongoing efficiency improvements [3]. - The company has stable production levels for tin and antimony concentrates, with tin ingot production increasing by 19.30% year-on-year [4]. - Significant improvements in profitability were noted across subsidiaries, with net profits for Huaxi Mining, Gaofeng Mining, and Fozu Mining increasing by 13.71%, 47.02%, and 123.53% respectively [4]. - Future growth potential is highlighted by ongoing projects aimed at increasing mining capacity and efficiency, including the expansion of the Gaofeng mine and the successful transition of exploration rights at the Tongkeng tin-zinc mine to mining rights [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.709 billion yuan in 2025, 6.476 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.327 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.28%, 13.43%, and 13.15% respectively [5][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 829 million yuan in 2025, 953 million yuan in 2026, and 1.164 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 26.02%, 14.98%, and 22.17% respectively [5][8]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 24.32, 21.15, and 17.31 respectively [5][8].

事件 公司发布2025 年半年度报告，2025H1 公司实现营业收入210.93 亿元，同比增长12.35%；归母净利润 10.62 亿元，同比增长32.76%；扣非归母净利润13.03 亿元，同比增长30.55%。2025Q2 公司实现营业收 入113.65 亿元，同比增长9.53%，环比增长16.82%；归母净利润5.62 亿元，同比增长18.76%，环比增长 12.61%；扣非归母净利润8.10 亿元，同比增长16.60%，环比增长64.04%。 2025H1 金属价格同比上涨叠加经营优化，驱动公司业绩提升 2025H1 公司积极拓展原料渠道，发挥矿山、冶炼产业协同效应，强化生产全流程管控，充分释放有价 金属效能，提升冶炼生产综合效益，经营质效持续稳健向好。 盈利预测与评级 金属价格方面， 根据iFinD ， 2025H1 上期所锡/ 铜/ 锌均价分别同比上涨8.9%/3.7%/4.0%，精铟均价同 比上涨10.7%。公司主要金属产品市场价格同比上涨叠加公司多措并举增产增收、降本增效，驱动公司 业绩提升。此外，2025H1 公司对所属矿山单位部分井巷构筑物等闲置无效、低效资产进行报废处置， 该事项对公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the dual challenges of inflation pressure and a cooling labor market in the U.S., emphasizing the economic downturn risks associated with the labor market cooling, which has increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The dovish remarks from Powell have led to a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index [1] - The prices of non-ferrous metals, which are sensitive to interest rates, have shown strong performance [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Non-ferrous metals are gradually emerging from the off-season, with inventories nearing a turning point [1] - The sector possesses both commodity and financial attributes, providing a dual boost [1] - The valuation of the non-ferrous sector is relatively low, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for allocation [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining [4][6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 23.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 54% [1] - The growth in copper and gold production is expected to be in double digits, with gold prices increasing by 39.5% year-on-year [2][3] - The acquisition of the Akyem gold mine in Ghana and the planned acquisition of the RG gold mine project in Kazakhstan are key strategic moves to expand the company's gold mining footprint [3] Financial Performance - For 2025, the company forecasts a net profit of 41.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.7% [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.55 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.2 [5] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 293.4 billion yuan in 2023 to 334 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year growth [5] Production and Pricing - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a copper production of 570,000 tons, a 10% increase year-on-year, and gold production of 410 tons, a 17% increase year-on-year [9] - The average price of copper in the first half of 2025 was $9,445 per ton, a 2.5% increase year-on-year, while the average gold price was $3,076 per ounce [9] Strategic Acquisitions - The company completed the acquisition of 100% equity in the Akyem gold mine, which is expected to contribute significantly to its gold production targets [3] - The RG gold mine project has a resource reserve of 242.1 tons of gold, with an average grade of 1.01 grams per ton and a remaining service life of 16 years [3]

Core Insights - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal industry in 2024 is positive, with over 70% of companies reporting revenue growth and nearly 90% achieving profitability [1] - The demand for non-ferrous metals is increasing, driven by rising gold prices and a significant upward shift in the prices of traditional industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc [1][2] - Companies are actively expanding their resource reserves and production capacity through acquisitions and exploration [2] Industry Performance - As of April 27, 2024, 124 non-ferrous metal companies have released their annual reports, showing a comprehensive index of industry prosperity on the rise [1] - The average annual prices for copper and lead have reached their highest levels in five years [1] Company Highlights - China Aluminum Corporation reported a revenue of 237.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.21%, and a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.38% [1] - Zijin Mining Group achieved a revenue of 303.64 billion yuan, a 3.49% increase, and a net profit of 32.051 billion yuan, up 51.76% [2] - Jinhui Mining reported a revenue of 1.539 billion yuan, a 19.97% increase, and a net profit of 477 million yuan, up 39.06% [1] Strategic Moves - Companies are accelerating resource acquisition and capacity expansion, with Jinhui Mining successfully bidding for mining rights and establishing new subsidiaries [2] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group completed a 70% acquisition of China Railway Construction Copper Crown Investment Co., enhancing its resource reserves and production capabilities [2] Future Outlook - Experts predict that non-ferrous metal prices will remain high into 2025, sustaining a high level of industry prosperity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry is performing well, with Western Mining (601168.SH) achieving record revenue in 2024, driven by rising non-ferrous metal prices and increased copper production and sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Western Mining reported total revenue of 50.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of 2.932 billion yuan, up 5% from the previous year [1][2]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown a consistent upward trend since 2019, with revenues of 30.57 billion yuan in 2019, 28.67 billion yuan in 2020, 38.50 billion yuan in 2021, 40.24 billion yuan in 2022, and 42.75 billion yuan in 2023 [2]. Copper Price and Production - The average copper price in 2024 reached 74,932 yuan per ton, a 9.7% increase year-on-year, contributing significantly to the company's revenue growth [2][3]. - Western Mining's copper production increased by 35% in 2024, totaling 177,543 tons, with its subsidiary Yulong Copper producing 159,084 tons, a 39.1% increase [4]. Dividend Distribution - Western Mining announced a profit distribution plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.383 billion yuan, which represents 81% of the distributable profits [5][6]. Shareholder Activity - The controlling shareholder, Xikang Group, has increased its stake in Western Mining, acquiring an additional 41.202 million shares, raising its total ownership from 30.18% to 31.89% [7].

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 高盛将黄金2025年底的价格上调至每盎司3300美元，近期黄金、铜等有色金属 价格节节攀升，原因何在？前景如何？ 当前铜期货价格大涨而A股中的铜股 票涨幅有限的内在逻辑又在哪里？ 高盛将2025年黄金价格大幅上调至 3300美元， 全球央行"囤金潮"持续加码 近期黄金、铜等有色金属价格节节攀升，引发市场广泛关注。高盛又添一把火， 今天（ 3月27日） 将 2025年底的 黄金价格 基线预测，从之前的3100美元/ 盎司上调至3300美元 /盎司 ， 主要基于以下四方 面 的 原因： 一是全球央行"囤金潮"持续加码。各国央行正以每月70吨的速度增持黄金，较之前50吨提速40%。尤其 亚洲大型央行（如中国）计划未来3—6年持续购买黄金，目标是将黄金储备占比从当前8%提升至20% —30%。仅中国要达到20%的储备目标，就需保持每月40吨购金量持续三年方能实现。 二是ETF资金涌入超预期。黄金ETF资金流入量已恢复至2020年疫情时期水平，如果维持此趋势，可能 将金价推升至3680美元。当前投资者正将黄金视为"升级版比特币"，既对冲风险又追逐收益。 三是政策环境双重催化。一方面，美联储预 ...