Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - Gold prices are expected to remain stable at high levels, with a downward trend continuing as the market awaits the December FOMC results. Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are ongoing, and China's central bank continues to increase its gold reserves [4][9] - Copper prices are on an upward trajectory, driven by supply constraints in non-US regions. The LME copper price reached a new high of $11,665 per ton, with significant warehouse cancellations raising concerns about potential supply shortages [10][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Research Views - Gold: The Federal Reserve's silence and mixed economic data have led to fluctuations in gold prices. The probability of a rate cut in December remains high at 80-90% [9] - Copper: The LME copper price has surged, with significant warehouse cancellations indicating potential supply issues. The market is expected to maintain a bullish sentiment towards copper stocks [10] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 5.07%, outperforming the broader market by 4.70%. The top-performing sectors included copper, aluminum, and nickel [11][12] Metal Prices and Inventories - Prices for basic metals have generally risen, with SHFE copper up 4.99% to 91,560 yuan per ton, and LME copper up 2.33% to $11,450 per ton. Inventory levels show a mixed trend, with LME copper inventory increasing by 2.0% while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 9.2% [25][31]

作为贵金属中的"小盘股"，白银向来以高弹性著称。当前全球白银总市值约2.7万亿美元，黄金总市值 约为27万亿美元，白银仅仅相当于黄金的十分之一。这意味着即使是相对少量的资金买入，就足以推动 白银价格出现比黄金更为剧烈的波动。 智通财经APP获悉，当地时间12月5日，受投资者对美联储降息前景持乐观态度、白银ETF持仓增量等 因素推动，国际白银价格显著上涨。伦敦现货白银价格盘中一度突破每盎司59.33美元，刷新历史纪 录。纽商所白银期货价格主力合约价格当天一度逼近每盎司60美元大关，收盘报每盎司59.053美元，创 历史新高。 业内认为，白银价格持续走高，是因为全球性白银库存下降，导致现货市场出现明显的供应趋紧。分析 师表示，国外白银极度缺货，现在是在一个囤货的阶段。 紫金矿业(02899)：紫金矿业作为银、铜、锌等全球综合性矿业巨头，受益于金、铜等金属价格上涨及 锂电产业布局，长期成长性较强，可能受益于工业金属涨价。2025年三季报显示，该公司前三季度实现 营业收入2542亿元，同比增长10.33%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润378.64亿元，同比增长 55.45%。 中国白银集团(00815)：中国白银集 ...

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 宏观催化叠加国内大幅去库，铜价突破上行 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/12/1-2025/12/5） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：宏观催化叠加国内大幅去库，铜价突破上行。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为 +5.74%/+6.12%/+3.33%。宏观方面，特朗普拟提名鸽派人选哈塞特任美联储主席，以及 ADP 就业数据低于预期等催化下，美联储 12 月降息预期升温，铜价突破上 ...

對於後市部署，投資者可依據對江西銅業股價超買調整與趨勢延續的不同判斷進行選擇。若投資者認為趨勢強勁，短暫整理後仍將上行，可關注成本控制較 佳的看漲工具。認購證方面，市場提供了不同特點的選項。花旗認購證(20259) 以其市場最低的溢價和引伸波幅為顯著特點，這能有效降低持有成本，使回 報更緊密跟隨正股走勢。中銀認購證(20165) 則提供引伸波幅相對較低的另一選擇。此外，法巴認購證(21929) 提供了行使價為40.9元的價外選擇，其槓桿約 為2.43倍。目前，市場暫無相關牛熊證的明確推薦，若後市出現，牛證將提供更高槓桿但需嚴控收回風險，熊證則可作為對沖高位波動的潛在工具。若投資 者認為超買壓力將主導短期走勢，則可留意看淡工具以對沖風險或捕捉回調。目前，中銀認沽證(27395) 以其最低的引伸波幅為特點，是進行看跌部署時一 個成本可控的選項。該產品能夠較純粹地反映正股價格下跌，受市場波動率預期變化的影響較小。 短線博弈點：江西銅業是直接挑戰阻力還是回踩支撐？ 江西銅業(00358)股價近期展現淩厲升勢，目前股價升2.82%，股價報35元。技術圖表上，股價已大幅升越10天線(31.53元)、30天線(31.77元 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively declined, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.58% to 26,085.08 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.84%, and the National Enterprises Index up by 1.01% [1][12] - Technology stocks saw a general increase, with Baidu rising over 5%, Kuaishou up over 2%, and Xiaomi and Lenovo both increasing by over 1% [1][12] - The insurance sector strengthened in the afternoon, with China Pacific Insurance rising over 7% [1][6][12] - The brokerage sector was active, with Huatai Securities increasing by over 3% [1][12] - Gaming stocks weakened, with Galaxy Entertainment declining by over 1% [1][12] Sector Performance Metals Sector - The metals sector experienced a broad increase, with Jiangxi Copper rising over 6% [1][14] - A significant event occurred with the cancellation of a copper warehouse receipt of 50,000 tons at LME, marking the largest single-day operation since 2013, indicating a potential shift in the copper market [3][14] Insurance Sector - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced a reduction in risk factors for insurance companies, which is expected to enhance capital efficiency and allow more funds to be invested in the capital market [6][14] - China Pacific Insurance's stock rose by 7.10%, while other major insurers also saw increases, including Ping An and China Life [7][13] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector is active as the important policy window approaches, with the Central Economic Work Conference expected to focus on stabilizing growth and optimizing investment structures [8][12] Gaming Sector - UBS released a positive outlook for the Macau gaming industry, predicting resilient demand and an increase in total gaming revenue growth forecasts for the next two years [9][16] New Listings - Two new stocks were listed today, with "Encounter Noodle" dropping over 27% and "Tianyu Semiconductor" falling over 30% [1][10][16] - "Encounter Noodle" had a subscription rate of 425.97 times during the public offering phase, while "Tianyu Semiconductor" had a subscription rate of 60.63 times [10][17]

有色金属概念午前表现活跃，截至发稿，江西铜业股份（00358）上涨5.35%，报35.84港元；中国铝业 （02600）上涨4.14%，报11.56港元；金力永磁（06680）上涨2.44%，报19.35港元；灵宝黄金 （03330）上涨2.21%，报17.13港元；紫金矿业（02899）上涨2.17%，报33.92港元。 来源：新浪港股 ...

黄金概念板块领涨，上涨1.3%，其中晓程科技上涨12.94%，江西铜业上涨3.99%，南矿集团上涨 3.15%，盛屯矿业、洛阳钼业、和邦生物涨超2%。（AI生成） 黄金概念板块领涨，上涨1.3%，其中晓程科技上涨12.94%，江西铜业上涨3.99%，南矿集团上涨 3.15%，盛屯矿业、洛阳钼业、和邦生物涨超2%。（AI生成） ...

Group 1: Copper Price Surge - Copper prices have reached historical highs due to global supply tightness, explosive demand, and interest rate cut expectations, with domestic spot copper prices exceeding 90,000 yuan/ton for the first time [1][4] - On December 3, LME three-month copper closed at $11,487.50 per ton, marking a significant daily increase of $342.50 [1] - The tight supply in the domestic market has led to a rise in the net value of the China Securities Index Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme ETF [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The processing fees for copper smelting have dropped to negative territory due to tight copper concentrate supply, causing smelting companies to struggle [2][8] - Fitch Solutions analysts predict a contraction in China's copper mine production by 2030 due to the closure of low-grade mines and delays in capacity expansion plans [2] - Global copper mine production is expected to decline by 0.12% in 2025, while demand continues to rise, particularly from sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles [5][6] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The ongoing supply constraints and high demand are expected to lead to a substantial shortage of cathode copper in Asia, potentially triggering further price increases [7] - The TC/RC (treatment and refining charges) have fallen to historical lows, with the current spot price at -$43 per ton, indicating significant pressure on smelting companies [10] - Analysts expect that the growth rate of China's copper mine production will gradually slow down over the next decade, with a focus on overseas investments, particularly in Africa [13]

五矿期货研报认为，地缘层面仍有一定逆风因素，不过市场关注点更多转向美联储议息会议，降息概率 提高使得情绪面偏暖。产业上看铜原料供应维持紧张格局，冶炼减产预期推动铜价走势较强，短期供应 则有边际增加预期，在下游开工率仍有支撑的情况下，铜价有望维持偏强运行。 金吾财讯 | 铜业股逆市有支撑，江西铜业股份(00358)涨3.82%，中国大冶有色金属(00661)涨2.94%，中 国有色矿业(01258)涨2.8%，五矿资源(01208)涨2.8%，洛阳钼业(03993)涨2.6%，紫金矿业(02899)涨 1.57%。 兴业期货研报表示，供应紧张格局仍是驱动铜价上涨的主要因素，同时美联储降息预期升温，美元走弱 也对基本金属提供较强支撑。 兴业期货研报表示，供应紧张格局仍是驱动铜价上涨的主要因素，同时美联储降息预期升温，美元走弱 也对基本金属提供较强支撑。 五矿期货研报认为，地缘层面仍有一定逆风因素，不过市场关注点更多转向美联储议息会议，降息概率 提高使得情绪面偏暖。产业上看铜原料供应维持紧张格局，冶炼减产预期推动铜价走势较强，短期供应 则有边际增加预期，在下游开工率仍有支撑的情况下，铜价有望维持偏强运行。 金吾财讯 ...

银河证券此前指，2024年行业触底企稳后，2025年中美达成日内瓦协议宏观预期的修复，美国加征关 税、中国反制措施及其他资源国矿产资源管制等政策下的供应链扰动、美联储降息周期中的流动性宽 松，使有色金属价格与行业业绩增速持续提升，确立了有色金属行业进入新一轮上行周期。2026年上述 逻辑有望继续推动有色金属商品价格上涨与提升有色金属企业的盈利能力，延续有色金属行业的景气上 行行情。 智通财经APP获悉，有色金属概念表现活跃，截至发稿，中国铝业(02600)涨3.42%，报11.48港元；江西 铜业股份(00358)涨3.12%，报35.08港元；金力永磁(06680)涨3.18%，报19.49港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨 2.21%，报17.13港元；紫金矿业(02899)涨1.08%，报33.56港元。 消息面上，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特最新表示，美联储主席需要是一位对数据敏感的人。他 认为，下次会议将降息约25个基点。此外，受一系列疲软的就业数据影响，交易员正加大力度押注美联 储将进一步降息。高盛在最新的报告中指出，美国劳动力市场明显出现了降温迹象，美联储12月降息25 个基点已经基本板上钉钉。 ...