江西铜业（600362.SH） 铜冶炼龙头再起航，资源并购助成长 2026 年 02 月 03 日 投资评级：买入（首次） 有色金属/工业金属 fengweimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070040 并购投资项目持续落地，铜业龙头再起航 江西铜业是国内领先的铜冶炼生产商，在铜以及相关有色金属领域建立了集勘 探、采矿、选矿、冶炼、加工的一体化产业链。目前公司主要资产包括国内规模 领先的铜冶炼产能和 5 座在产铜矿山，整体生产稳健。同时公司积极实践"资源 优先"战略，推动第一量子的战略合作关系，并已在中亚、南美等地区进行资源 布局，合作资源项目（艾娜克铜矿、北秘鲁矿业）有望迎来开花结果。我们预计 2025-2027 年公司将实现归母净利润分别为 84.51/121.47/133.6 亿元，当前股价对 应 PE 为 23.4/16.3/14.8 倍。首次覆盖给予公司"买入"评级。 产业链一体化协同高效，铜冶炼龙头地位稳固 公司于 1979 年成立于江西南昌，围绕江西地区丰富的铜矿资源，打造了从上游 资源到下游冶炼加工的一体化布局。（1）上游资源：公司在国内持有五座在产矿 山，年产铜精矿金属量 ...

有色金属/工业金属 江西铜业（600362.SH） 铜冶炼龙头再起航，资源并购助成长 投资评级：买入（首次） | 日期 | 2026/2/2 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 57.08 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 70.70/19.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,976.53 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,184.55 | | 总股本(亿股) | 34.63 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 20.75 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 196.62 | 股价走势图 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 320% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 江西铜业 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 孙二春（分析师） 冯伟珉（联系人） sunerchun@kysec.cn 2026 年 02 月 03 日 fengweimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070040 并购投资项目持续落地，铜业龙头再起航 江西铜业是国内领先的铜冶炼生产商，在铜以及相关有色金属领域建立了集勘 探、采矿、选矿、冶炼、加工的一体化产业链。目前公司主要资产包括国内规模 领先的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Penghua Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF (159117) has experienced a decrease in both share count and total assets since the beginning of the year, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards this fund [1][2]. Fund Overview - The Penghua Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF (159117) was established on September 30, 2025, with a management fee of 0.30% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of February 2, 2025, the fund's latest share count was 89.40 million, with a total asset size of 94.24 million yuan, reflecting a 38.51% decrease in shares and a 36.35% decrease in total assets since December 31, 2025 [1]. Liquidity Analysis - The cumulative trading amount for the ETF over the last 20 trading days reached 174 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 8.68 million yuan [1]. Fund Management - The current fund managers are Yan Dong and Yu Zhanchang, both of whom have managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 7.68% during their tenure [2]. Top Holdings - The ETF's major holdings include Jiangxi Copper Co. (4.39%), Far East Horizon (3.33%), China Shenhua Energy (3.09%), CNOOC (3.04%), and Hang Lung Properties (2.97%), among others, with specific holding percentages and market values detailed [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong copper industry stocks experienced significant gains in the afternoon trading session, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these companies [1] Company Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) saw an increase of 6.77%, reaching HKD 22.72 [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) rose by 5.89%, trading at HKD 15.29 [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208.HK) increased by 4.83%, with a price of HKD 9.98 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) gained 4.8%, priced at HKD 45.44 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) experienced a rise of 4.3%, reaching HKD 41.26 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks have seen significant gains, with major companies experiencing notable increases in share prices due to positive developments in the copper industry and strategic initiatives by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. (603993) has risen by 6.77%, trading at HKD 22.72 [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) increased by 5.89%, reaching HKD 15.29 [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) saw a rise of 4.83%, priced at HKD 9.98 [1] - Jiangxi Copper Co. (600362) gained 4.8%, trading at HKD 45.44 [1] - Zijin Mining (601899) increased by 4.3%, with a price of HKD 41.26 [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is working on improving the copper resource reserve system, which includes expanding the national copper strategic reserve and exploring commercial reserve mechanisms [1] - The association plans to implement commercial reserves through financial subsidies, targeting state-owned enterprises for pilot programs [1] - There is a focus on not only refining copper reserves but also considering the inclusion of copper concentrates that are highly liquid and have significant trade volumes [1] - The association has halted over 2 million tons of copper smelting projects to control excessive growth in smelting capacity [1] - Future efforts will involve strict management of new copper smelting projects to improve the sourcing ratio of copper over time [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper industry stocks experienced significant gains, with notable increases in share prices for several companies, indicating positive market sentiment towards the copper sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) rose by 6.77%, reaching HKD 22.72 [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) increased by 5.89%, reaching HKD 15.29 [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) saw a rise of 4.83%, reaching HKD 9.98 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) increased by 4.8%, reaching HKD 45.44 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) rose by 4.3%, reaching HKD 41.26 [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - The Vice Secretary-General of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Duan Shaofu, announced plans to improve the copper resource reserve system, which includes expanding the national copper strategic reserve and exploring commercial reserve mechanisms [1] - The association plans to implement commercial reserves through financial subsidies, targeting state-owned enterprises for pilot programs [1] - There is a focus on not only refining copper reserves but also considering the inclusion of copper concentrate, which has high trade volumes and liquidity, into the reserve system [1] Group 3: Production Control - The copper smelting capacity governance work is being advanced, with over 2 million tons of copper smelting projects already halted domestically [1] - The rapid growth trend in copper smelting capacity has been effectively curbed [1] - The industry association will continue to collaborate with national departments to strictly control new copper smelting projects, aiming to improve the current situation of increasing external sourcing ratios year by year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, with notable amounts leaving the communication equipment and precious metals sectors [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Outflow - Zhongji Xuchuang experienced a capital outflow of 1.647 billion, with a slight increase in stock price of 0.37% [2] - Xinyi Sheng saw a capital outflow of 1.169 billion, with a decline in stock price of 1.7% [2] - BlueFocus Media had a capital outflow of 1.067 billion, with a stock price increase of 2.48% [2] - Industrial Fulian faced a capital outflow of 1.022 billion, with a decrease in stock price of 0.32% [2] - Zijin Mining reported a capital outflow of 0.844 billion, with a stock price increase of 3.88% [2] - Western Materials had a capital outflow of 0.747 billion, with a notable stock price increase of 7.73% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The communication equipment sector is facing significant capital outflows, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng leading the outflows [1][2] - The precious metals sector, including companies like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining, is also experiencing notable capital outflows [1][3] - The automotive sector, represented by BYD, has a capital outflow of 0.396 billion, with a slight decrease in stock price of 0.25% [3]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a collective decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 2.23% to 26,775.57 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 3.36% to 5,526.31 points, and the China Enterprises Index decreasing by 2.54% to 9,080.19 points [2]. Sector Analysis - The recent market adjustment is attributed to a technical pullback following a rapid rise in indices, compounded by hawkish comments from Fed Chair nominee Waller, which stirred market sentiment. This is not seen as a trend reversal signal [5]. - Key focus remains on the sustainability of volatility, with three main supportive drivers for the first quarter identified: improved liquidity environment, resonance of domestic and foreign capital, and upward revisions in corporate earnings expectations due to economic recovery [6][7]. Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest adopting a mid-term perspective, emphasizing opportunities in small and mid-cap sectors with clear catalysts, such as education, AI applications, and specialty consumption [8]. Sector-Specific Movements - Gold and related stocks saw significant declines, with Shandong Gold dropping by 12.56% and Chifeng Jilong Gold falling by 12.18%, influenced by a broader downturn in commodity prices [10][12]. - The cement and building materials sector also faced losses, with Western Cement declining by 15.47% and China National Building Material falling by 10.14%. The latter is projected to report a loss of approximately RMB 2.3 billion to RMB 4 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025 [13]. - Semiconductor stocks were affected by industry demand fluctuations, with Huahong Semiconductor down by 11.24% and Zhaoyi Innovation down by 9.25%. Reports indicate tightening order reviews by major manufacturers in response to market volatility [15]. Resilient Sectors - Some gaming stocks performed well, with Yabo Technology Holdings increasing by 8.79% and Sands China rising by 4.05%. Yabo announced a technical service agreement with the Hong Kong Gold Exchange [17]. - The liquor sector also showed resilience, with Yiyuan Liquor rising by 8.33% and Qingdao Beer increasing by 1.46%. Analysts expect the liquor industry to hit bottom by 2026, with a potential investment opportunity arising around the Chinese New Year [19]. Notable Stock Movements - Cloud Wisdom saw a rise of 5.49%, with expectations of significant revenue growth from its large model-related business, projected to reach approximately RMB 600 million to RMB 620 million in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of about 1057% to 1095% [20]. - Kangzheng Pharmaceutical increased by 7.77% following the approval of clinical trials for its complement factor B inhibitor, indicating potential for new product launches [21].

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant declines, with companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Jiangxi Copper seeing drops of 13.38%, 12.63%, and 10.16% respectively [1] - International precious metal markets continue to face severe sell-offs, with spot gold dropping below $4,450 per ounce, marking a new low since January 8, and spot silver erasing all gains for the year, falling to $71.31 per ounce [1] - Domestic commodity futures markets are also seeing widespread declines, with major contracts for silver, palladium, platinum, nickel, tin, copper, and aluminum hitting limit downs [1] Group 2 - Short-term market evaluations of the non-ferrous sector are reassessing the balance between "trend" and "volatility" following previous rapid increases [2] - The nomination process of Waller and the clarity of his policy positions are expected to be key factors influencing commodity prices and the non-ferrous industry [2] - A strengthened "hawkish" stance could potentially reverse "weak dollar" expectations, increasing price volatility for all non-ferrous metals, while the long-term industry logic remains unchanged due to ongoing interest rate cuts and new demand dynamics [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market's non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant declines, with several companies showing notable drops in their stock prices [1] - Shandong Gold (01787.HK) has decreased by 13.38%, trading at 38.36 HKD [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) has fallen by 12.63%, with a current price of 34.86 HKD [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) has seen a decline of 10.16%, now priced at 42.64 HKD [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) has dropped by 9.62%, currently at 14.19 HKD [1] - Aluminum Corporation of China (02600.HK) has decreased by 7.22%, trading at 12.85 HKD [1]