Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that the rising gold prices have significantly suppressed domestic gold jewelry consumption, while the consumption of gold bars and coins, which have more investment attributes, has rapidly increased year-on-year, greatly exceeding that of gold jewelry [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - In 2025, China's gold consumption is projected to be 950.096 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.57%. Gold jewelry consumption is expected to decline to 363.836 tons, down 31.61%, while gold bars and coins are anticipated to rise to 504.238 tons, an increase of 35.14% [1] - The closing price of Au9999 gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange at the end of December 2025 is expected to rise by 58.78% compared to the opening price at the beginning of the year [1] - The impact of high gold prices on the consumption structure of gold jewelry is expected to continue into 2026 [1] Group 2: Company Performance - In 2025, companies with strong brand operations and clear product differentiation are expected to show rapid growth despite industry pressures. Notable examples include: - Chao Hong Ji, with a projected non-recurring profit growth of 125%-175% [2] - Cai Bai Co., with a projected non-recurring profit growth of 39%-64% [2] - Man Ka Long, with a projected non-recurring profit growth of 26% [2] - Chow Tai Fook, with a 16.9% sales growth in mainland China in Q4 2025, and a 53.4% increase in same-store sales for fixed-price products [2] - Luk Fook Holdings, with a projected non-recurring profit growth of 43% for FY2026H1 [2] - Companies that rely on wholesale and franchise models, with weak brand operation and digital capabilities, are facing significant operational pressure due to the sustained rise in gold prices in 2024 and 2025 [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report highlights that the rise of Chinese culture and confidence presents significant opportunities for domestic gold jewelry brands to expand internationally, particularly in Southeast Asia, Australia, and North America [3] - The focus for investment opportunities in 2026 will be on companies with strong branding, differentiation, and active international expansion, such as Chao Hong Ji, Lao Pu Gold, Chow Tai Fook, and Luk Fook Holdings [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the gold and jewelry sector [6] Core Insights - In 2025, despite a significant increase in gold prices, domestic consumption of gold jewelry is expected to decline sharply, while the consumption of gold bars and coins is projected to grow rapidly [2][4] - The report highlights that high gold prices will continue to impact the consumption structure of gold jewelry in 2026, with a notable shift towards investment-oriented products [2] - The differentiation and branding of leading companies in the sector are expected to drive growth, even amidst market pressures [3][9] Summary by Sections - **Market Trends**: In 2025, China's total gold consumption is estimated at 950.096 tons, a decrease of 3.57% year-on-year, with gold jewelry consumption dropping by 31.61% to 363.836 tons, while gold bars and coins consumption is expected to rise by 35.14% to 504.238 tons [2] - **Company Performance**: Companies with strong branding and differentiation, such as潮宏基,菜百股份, and周大福, are projected to show significant profit growth, with潮宏基's non-net profit growth estimated at 125%-175% [9] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report recommends focusing on companies with strong branding and international expansion strategies, specifically suggesting to "buy" or "hold" stocks of潮宏基,老铺黄金,老凤祥, and周大生 [4][9]

截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 六福集團(國際)有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00590 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 800,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 80,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 800,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 80,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple gold jewelry brands have raised the prices of gold jewelry, reflecting a significant increase in consumer demand and market activity amid rising gold prices [2][15]. Price Adjustments - Major brands have adjusted their gold prices as follows: - Chow Tai Fook: 1566 CNY/g (+4.75%) - Lao Feng Xiang: 1576 CNY/g (+3.82%) - Zhou Liu Fu: 1561 CNY/g (+4.77%) - Chow Sang Sang: 1570 CNY/g (+4.81%) - Liufuk Jewelry: 1564 CNY/g (+4.76%) - Wo Zhi Cao: 1564 CNY/g (+4.76%) - Lao Miao: 1571 CNY/g (+4.87%) [3][16]. Consumer Behavior - The market in Shenzhen's Shui Bei area is experiencing high foot traffic, with many consumers and dealers actively inquiring and placing orders [3][20]. - The "gold exchange" consumption method, where consumers trade in old gold for new pieces, has significantly increased, with this method accounting for about 20% of sales, up from previous years [9][22]. Seasonal Trends - The Chinese New Year is a traditional peak season for gold consumption, and despite recent price fluctuations, consumer sentiment remains optimistic about gold prices [5][18]. Market Statistics - According to the China Gold Association, gold consumption in China for 2025 is projected to be 950.096 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.57%. - Jewelry: 363.836 tons (-31.61%) - Gold bars and coins: 504.238 tons (+35.14%) - Industrial and other gold: 82.022 tons (+2.32%) [11][24]. - Domestic gold ETF holdings are expected to increase significantly, with a total annual increase of 133.118 tons in 2025, a 149.91% rise compared to 2024 [11][24]. Central Bank Activity - Global central banks, including China, have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, with China adding 26.75 tons in 2025, bringing total reserves to 2306.32 tons by the end of December [12][25].

Group 1 - The recent significant drop in gold and silver prices marks the largest decline in over 40 years, with gold prices falling from a historical high of $5626.8 to a low of $4423.2, a decrease of over 20%, and silver prices dropping from $121.785 to $71.2, a decline exceeding 40% [2] - As of February 3, international gold prices rebounded, with New York gold prices surpassing $4900 per ounce, reaching a peak of $4975.5 per ounce, reflecting a 6.11% increase [2] - Domestic gold retailers have adjusted their prices accordingly, with retail prices for gold jewelry exceeding 1450 yuan per gram, and specific brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang quoting prices as high as 1495 yuan per gram [2] Group 2 - Due to the volatility in gold prices, many customers are opting to wait before making purchases, as illustrated by a customer who noted that the price of a similar gold bracelet has increased from over 5000 yuan to 12000 yuan [3] - To balance consumer interest and risk, several brands are innovating by introducing lightweight luxury gold items and offering trade-in options, which are attracting cautious buyers [3] - Analysts suggest that despite the recent price corrections, gold still holds long-term investment value, with expectations that prices could rise to $8000 per ounce in the next two years, advising investors to consider gold as part of a diversified asset allocation [3]

在当前市场格局下，该行预计将出现两类显著的赢家，包括能够支持高溢价的高端零售商，以老铺黄金 (06181)为代表; 在香港和澳门拥有强大市场布局的零售商，自2025年11月黄金增值税上调以来，该些地 区的门店客流量显著增加。 智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，将六福集团(00590)列为行业首选股，并将其目标价上调至 35.9港元。尽管近期金价波动较大，但该行预计今年首季黄金珠宝消费仍将保持强劲。股市带来的财富 效应叠加更为宽松的货币环境，将进一步推动消费者选择珠宝作为价值储存和投资的方式。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the similarities between the current gold price fluctuations and the "gold rush" of 2013, emphasizing the potential for concentrated consumer demand during initial price declines and the impact of sustained price weakness on investment-driven consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Response - In April 2013, a significant drop in gold prices led to a surge in consumer purchases, with retail sales growth for gold and jewelry reaching 72.16% compared to the previous month [2][5]. - Major companies like Luk Fook Group and Chow Tai Fook reported record revenues and profits during this period, driven by the increased demand for gold products [6][7]. - The subsequent decline in gold prices from 2013 to 2015 resulted in a depletion of consumer demand, with retail sales growth slowing to 0.04% in 2014 [7]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The current gold price fluctuations are characterized by a long-term investment behavior focused on asset allocation and wealth preservation, rather than short-term speculative buying [3][8]. - Companies with strong brand narratives and product differentiation, such as Lao Pu Gold and Chow Sang Sang, have shown resilience and growth despite high gold prices, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards quality and cultural identity [9][10]. - The demand for gold jewelry remains robust, with significant year-on-year growth reported by major retailers, suggesting that short-term price volatility may not significantly impact consumer purchasing behavior [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage the current market dynamics, such as Cai Bai Co., which combines investment gold bars and jewelry, and Luk Fook Group, which has competitive advantages in pricing and operations [11]. - Additionally, attention is drawn to leading companies with strong product design and differentiation capabilities, including Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Chow Tai Fook, as they are expected to perform well in the evolving market landscape [11].

中银国际发表报告指，尽管近期金价波动较大，但该行预计今年首季黄金珠宝消费仍将保持强劲。股市 带来的财富效应叠加更为宽松的货币环境，将进一步推动消费者选择珠宝作为价值储存和投资的方式。 在当前市场格局下，该行预计将出现两类显著的赢家，包括能够支持高溢价的高端零售商，以老铺黄金 为代表；在香港和澳门拥有强大市场布局的零售商，自2025年11月黄金增值税上调以来，该些地区的门 店客流量显著增加。基于此分析，该行将六福列为行业首选股，并将其目标价上调至35.9港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that while current gold price fluctuations have a short-term emotional impact on the sector, the fundamental effects are expected to remain stable due to a shift in industry growth logic towards brand building, process innovation, and cultural narrative capabilities, leading to "α returns" [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Historical reference to the 2013 gold price correction suggests that it led to a surge in investment purchases, which may support further short-term performance growth for companies focused on investment gold business [1] - The jewelry sector is entering a consumption peak season at year-end, with overall valuations in the sector at low levels, indicating that short-term gold price fluctuations have not affected the growth logic of core leading companies [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Companies with price advantage and strong operational capabilities in Hong Kong and Macau, as well as leading firms with good product design or differentiated capabilities, are expected to continue strengthening their business advantages and achieve sustained high growth [1] - Companies with a high proportion of investment gold business and those offering fixed-price products are likely to maintain stable growth [1] Group 3: Recommendations - Recommended companies include Caibai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, Laopuhuangjin, Chow Tai Fook, and Chaohongji, which are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [1]

六福集团 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 31.14 -1.00 -3.11% 5.60% 3.73% 1.87% 0.00% 1.87% 3.73% 5.60% 30.34 30.94 31.54 32.14 32.74 33.34 33.94 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 14万 28万 43万 拉萨六福黄金价格 拉萨六福集团主要从事各类黄金首饰、黄金装饰品、镶石首饰、宝石及其它配饰之采购、零售及批发业务。六福珠宝拥有超过三百间珠宝零售店，遍布于香 港、美国、加拿大、澳门及中国内地等地。集团将继续于国际市场物色新商机，以配合其"国际演绎"的核心品牌理念。 拉萨六福集团致力为客户提供物超所值及殷勤挚诚的服务，并于业务各范畴上拓展更多新的领域，以巩固集团于香港、中国内地及海外珠宝业界的领导地 位。 ...