Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 51.3% year-on-year to RMB 4,991.5 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 3,299.3 million in the same period of 2023[2] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 51.6% year-on-year to RMB 1,318.8 million, maintaining an adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.4%[2] - Adjusted net profit increased by 46.6% year-on-year to RMB 910.0 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 18.2%, down from 18.8% in the previous year[2] - Total revenue increased by 51.3% from RMB 3,299.3 million in Q3 2023 to RMB 4,991.5 million in Q3 2024[27] - Revenue from the core online travel platform rose by 21.6% to RMB 4,012.8 million, driven by accommodation booking services and transportation ticketing services[29] - Operating profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 977.1 million, compared to RMB 598.9 million in Q3 2023[25] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 910.0 million, up from RMB 620.6 million in Q3 2023[25] - Net profit for the period was RMB 803,234 thousand, a 55.7% increase from RMB 515,488 thousand in the prior year[63] - Total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 788,482 thousand, compared to RMB 508,254 thousand in the same quarter of 2023, reflecting a 55.1% growth[66] User Growth and Engagement - Average monthly paying users grew by 5.0% year-on-year to 46.4 million, while annual paying users increased by 3.4% to 232.4 million[2] - Cumulative service users for the twelve months ended September 30, 2024, reached 1,882.5 million, a 19.9% increase from 1,570.6 million in the previous year[2] - The user base is predominantly from non-first-tier cities in China, accounting for over 87% of registered users[12] - Approximately 71% of new paying users on the WeChat platform during the quarter came from non-first-tier cities[12] - The company has expanded its Black Whale membership program, significantly increasing the cumulative number of members in Q3 2024, enhancing user engagement and loyalty[15] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from transportation ticketing services increased by 20.6% year-over-year to RMB 2,026.8 million, driven by increased ticket volume and enhanced value-added products and services[16] - The accommodation business achieved a revenue growth of 22.2% year-over-year, reaching RMB 1,377.5 million, with international night stays increasing by over 130%[17] - The company's other income from the core online travel platform reached RMB 608.5 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 23.7%[17] - The vacation business recorded revenue of RMB 978.7 million in Q3 2024, indicating strong growth amid the industry's recovery[19] - Accommodation booking service revenue increased by 22.2% to RMB 1,377.5 million, attributed to a wider range of accommodation products and enhanced cross-selling strategies[29] - Transportation ticketing service revenue grew by 20.6% to RMB 2,026.8 million, due to increased demand for ticketing services and value-added products[29] Operational Efficiency and Costs - The company continues to enhance operational efficiency to achieve better profit margins[11] - Total cost of sales increased from RMB 839.7 million in Q3 2023 to RMB 1,826.8 million in Q3 2024, with the cost-to-revenue ratio rising from 25.4% to 36.5%[34] - Selling and marketing expenses increased by 15.4% to RMB 1,467.6 million, with the expense-to-revenue ratio decreasing from 38.3% to 29.2%[37] - Administrative expenses rose to RMB 327.7 million from RMB 196.5 million, with the expense-to-revenue ratio increasing from 4.6% to 5.1%[38] Market Outlook and Strategy - The company is optimistic about the growth potential of the Chinese tourism market, driven by improved infrastructure and supportive government policies[21] - The company plans to continue expanding its outbound business and strengthen its market position in the travel industry while seeking investment opportunities aligned with its strategic goals[22] - The company aims to enhance user experience through AI-driven customer service systems and algorithm-driven travel solutions, focusing on providing more convenient travel options[19] Financial Position - Non-current assets increased to RMB 19,229,430 thousand as of September 30, 2024, from RMB 16,816,963 thousand at the end of 2023, marking a 8.3% rise[70] - Current assets rose to RMB 17,467,841 thousand, up from RMB 14,899,646 thousand, indicating an increase of 17.0%[71] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 16,227,845 thousand from RMB 13,170,320 thousand, a growth of 23.4%[74] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were RMB 5,737,276 thousand, compared to RMB 5,281,623 thousand in the previous year[76] - The company reported a net cash outflow from operating activities of RMB 647,655 thousand for the quarter, compared to a net inflow of RMB 706,376 thousand in the same period last year[76] Governance and Management - The company expressed gratitude to shareholders, management team, employees, business partners, and customers for their support and contributions[85] - The board of directors includes independent non-executive directors Yang Jia Hong and Dai Xiao Jing[85] - The executive directors consist of Wu Zhi Xiang (co-chairman), Ma Ping (CEO), and Han Yu Ling[86]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel [4]. Core Views - Tongcheng Travel is positioned as a leading OTA in the lower-tier market, focusing on strengthening its own supply chain to enhance competitive advantages [1][2]. - The online travel market in China is expected to reach a scale of 2.2 trillion yuan in 2024, recovering to 120% of the 2019 level, with an online penetration rate of 45.2%, indicating significant growth potential [2][31]. - The company benefits from strong backing by Tencent and Ctrip, which enhances its competitive edge through resource sharing and flow support [2][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tongcheng Travel was formed through the merger of Tongcheng and eLong, ranking among the top three online travel platforms in China, with a focus on the lower-tier market and supply chain development [1][9]. Industry Analysis - The online travel market is projected to grow significantly, with a stable competitive landscape dominated by a few major players. The penetration rate for online travel remains lower compared to other sectors, suggesting room for growth [2][26][34]. - The company is actively expanding its user base in lower-tier cities, with 87% of registered users from non-first-tier cities as of Q2 2024 [2][34]. Competitive Advantages - Tongcheng Travel leverages Tencent's traffic and Ctrip's inventory to enhance its market position. The company is also diversifying its traffic channels and strengthening its app development [2][3][14]. - The company has established a robust supply chain, including partnerships with travel agencies and hotel management companies, to enhance its service offerings [2][3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company reported a revenue of 11.896 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 81%. The adjusted net profit for 2023 was 1.554 billion yuan, marking a significant recovery post-pandemic [3][17]. - Forecasts for adjusted net profits from 2024 to 2026 are 2.6 billion yuan, 3.1 billion yuan, and 3.6 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 [3][4].

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited 同程旅行控股有限公司 (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) Stock Code 股份代號：0780 MALIGAYANG BENVENUTO PAGDATING TERVETULOA VELKOMMEN WELKOM 欢 迎 ÜDVÖZLÖM BIENVENIDO 환영 ようこそ WELCOME ... BIENVENUE WILLKOMMEN BEM-VINDOS 2024 中期報告 INTERIM REPORT CONTENTS 目錄 2 CORPORATE INFORMATION 公司資料 6 KEY HIGHLIGHTS 摘要重點 11 BUSINESS REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 業務回顧與展望 16 MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS 管理層討論及分析 33 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND OTHER INFORMATION 企業管治及其他資料 84 R ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/旅游服务业 证券研究报告 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 股票数据 | | | 09 [ Table_StockInfo 月 03 日收盘价（港元 ] ） | 15.02 | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 12.38-22.55 | | 总股本 / 流通股本（百万股） | 2325/2325 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（亿港元） | 349/349 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《 OTA 行业龙头，多元场景加深下沉优势》 | | | 2024.04.10 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------|-------|--------| | 恒生指数对比 | 1M | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][15]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 8.112 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.8%. Adjusted EBITDA was 1.734 billion yuan, up 12.7%, and adjusted net profit was 1.215 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9% [3][6]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 64.8%, a decrease of 10.4 percentage points year-on-year. The adjusted profit margin was 15.0%, down 5.1 percentage points [3][6]. - The company's core OTA business segments, including transportation ticketing and accommodation booking, showed significant performance improvements, with transportation ticketing revenue growing by 16.6% year-on-year in Q2 2024 [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenues of 4.245 billion yuan, a 48.1% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit also growing by 10.9% [3][6]. - The total GMV for the first half of 2024 was 128.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.7% year-on-year increase, with a notable rise in user purchase frequency [6][8]. - The company expects Non-GAAP net profits of 2.697 billion yuan, 3.021 billion yuan, and 5.859 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 15-18 times for 2024 [6][9]. Business Segment Performance - The transportation ticketing segment generated 1.743 billion yuan in revenue in Q2 2024, driven by increased ticket volume and enhanced value-added services [6][8]. - Accommodation booking revenue reached 1.191 billion yuan in Q2 2024, benefiting from a significant expansion of hotel supply and optimized product structure [6][8]. - Other business segments saw a remarkable revenue increase of 87.3% year-on-year, totaling 592 million yuan in Q2 2024 [6][8]. User Metrics - As of June 30, 2024, the company had 228 million annual paying users, a 4.8% increase year-on-year, with a 29.9% growth in cumulative paying customers [6][8]. - The proportion of registered users from non-first-tier cities was approximately 87% as of Q2 2024 [6][8]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The company is valued at a reasonable range of 19.05 to 22.86 HKD per share based on a PE ratio of 15-18 times for 2024, considering its position as a leading OTA with strong growth momentum [6][9]. - Comparatively, the PE ratios for similar companies such as Ctrip and Meituan are 14.4 and 17.6 respectively, indicating a competitive market landscape [9].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 港元 13.12 | 港元 23.00↓ | +75.3% | 同程旅行 (780 HK) 核心 OTA 收入增~20%，收入虽有下调，但下半年利润率将改善 | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 2 季度业绩：收入 42 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增 48%，与我 | | 们/彭博市场预期基本一致。其中，核心 OTA 业务收入增 23%（交通/住宿 | | +13%/17%），度假业务收入 7.2 亿元。调整后净利润 6.6 亿元，同比增 | | 11%，高于我们/彭博市场预期 5%/4%，对应净利率 15%，较去年同期的 | | 21%有所下降，因度假业务利润率较低及出境业务投入拖累。调整后营销 | | 费用同比增 35%，主要由于营销活动增加，但占收比环比稳定在 35%。 | | - ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in China's online travel industry, focusing on transportation ticketing, accommodation booking, and travel value-added services. It has successfully capitalized on post-pandemic recovery opportunities, achieving significant revenue and net profit growth in 2023 [2][16]. - The online travel market is experiencing strong recovery, with the lower-tier market being a significant growth driver. The top three OTA platforms in China by market share are Ctrip, Meituan, and Tongcheng Travel, with shares of 36.3%, 20.6%, and 14.8% respectively [2][9]. - The company has maintained a strong flow of users through its long-term partnership with Tencent, which contributes over 80% of its traffic via WeChat mini-programs. The company is also expanding its traffic sources by investing in Douyin and enhancing its independent app operations [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was formed by the merger of Tongcheng Network and eLong in 2018, enhancing its ability to provide a comprehensive range of travel products and services [17][18]. - The company has a relatively dispersed shareholding structure, with major shareholders including Tencent and Ctrip, which helps in maintaining a balance of power and democratic decision-making [21][22]. Online Travel Recovery - The online travel market in China is projected to continue its recovery, with a significant increase in online penetration rates. The market size is expected to grow from 1.8 trillion yuan in 2019 to 2.6 trillion yuan by 2025 [44][49]. - The company has a competitive edge in the lower-tier market, which is expected to drive growth as consumer preferences shift towards short-distance travel and lower-tier city tourism [9][58]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue increase from 73.93 billion yuan in 2019 to 118.96 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 12.63%. Net profit grew from 6.88 billion yuan to 15.54 billion yuan during the same period, with a CAGR of 22.59% [27][30]. - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 81.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, while net profit increased by 13.08% to 8.30 billion yuan [27][30]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing hotel chain rate and online penetration in the lower-tier market, with projected revenues of 173.36 billion yuan, 203.55 billion yuan, and 233.69 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [11][8]. - The forecasted net profits for the same years are 19.02 billion yuan, 24.46 billion yuan, and 29.06 billion yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [11][8]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price for the company is set at 16.71 HKD, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 15, 12, and 10 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][11].

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [2] Core Views - The company is a leading player in China's online travel industry, focusing on lower-tier markets and leveraging innovative marketing strategies to capture post-pandemic recovery opportunities [2] - The online travel market is recovering strongly, with lower-tier markets being a significant growth driver [2] - The company benefits from its strategic partnerships with Tencent and Ctrip, which provide traffic and hotel inventory, respectively [2] - The company is actively expanding its traffic sources and building its own supply chain, including through acquisitions and international expansion [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 17.34 billion, RMB 20.36 billion, and RMB 23.37 billion, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB 1.90 billion, RMB 2.45 billion, and RMB 2.91 billion, respectively [2] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 15x, 12x, and 10x, respectively [2] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company holds a 14.8% market share in China's online travel market, ranking third after Ctrip and Meituan [2] - The company's traffic is primarily sourced from Tencent's ecosystem, with over 80% of monthly active users coming from WeChat Mini Programs [2] - The company shares hotel inventory with Ctrip, which accounts for 60%-70% of its hotel supply [2] - The company is expanding its supply chain through acquisitions and technology solutions for small and medium-sized hotels in lower-tier cities [2] Industry Trends - China's online travel market is highly concentrated, with the top three players (Ctrip, Meituan, and the company) holding a combined market share of 71.7% [2] - The online travel market is expected to grow from RMB 1.8 trillion in 2019 to RMB 2.6 trillion by 2025, driven by increasing online penetration and lower-tier market growth [2] - Post-pandemic, there is a shift towards short-distance travel and tourism in lower-tier cities, which benefits the company's focus on these markets [2] Traffic and User Growth - The company's traffic from its own app increased from 4.0% to 4.7% between August 2023 and March 2024 [2] - The company is expanding its traffic sources by investing in platforms like Douyin and strengthening its independent app operations [2] - The company is also tapping into offline channels, such as music festivals and local travel opportunities, to capture new users [2] International Expansion - The company is accelerating its global supply chain layout, particularly in North America, through app development and offline store openings [2] - The company has launched a "Destination Global Plan" to expand its international presence, with partnerships in countries like South Korea, Singapore, and Hungary [2] - The company's international hotel bookings have fully recovered to 2019 levels, with a 330% year-on-year increase in international hotel room nights in 2023 [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price for the company is set at HKD 16.71, representing a potential upside from the current price of HKD 13.58 [2] - The valuation is based on the company's strong position in China's lower-tier travel market, its self-built traffic channels, and its global supply chain layout [2] Key Catalysts for Stock Price - Short-term catalysts include the growth in travel demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, particularly in lower-tier cities [2] - Long-term catalysts include the company's international expansion and its ability to capture the growth in China's outbound tourism market [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 13.38 HKD [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, achieving revenue of 4.25 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 48.1%, marking a historical high for quarterly revenue. Adjusted net profit reached 660 million RMB, up 10.9% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 15.5% [1][2]. - The core OTA segment demonstrated strong growth resilience, with transportation revenue of 1.74 billion RMB, a 16.6% increase year-on-year. International business saw significant growth, with ticket and hotel revenue increasing by 160% and 140% respectively [1][2]. - The number of paid users remained stable, with an increase in average consumption frequency from 6.6 times to 8.1 times per user year-on-year, supporting a GMV of 623 billion RMB, which grew by 4.4% [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.008 billion RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14x, 13x, and 11x for 2024-2026 [2][3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 11.896 billion RMB in 2023 to 17.028 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 43.1% [3][11]. - The net profit is forecasted to increase from 1.554 billion RMB in 2023 to 2.008 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 29.2% [3][11]. User Engagement and Market Strategy - The company continues to deepen its market penetration through effective operations and innovative services, attracting new users and increasing the paid user ratio [2]. - The strategy of mergers and acquisitions is being employed to enhance the company's competitive advantage and market presence in accommodation, vacation, and outbound travel sectors [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.2 billion RMB for Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 49%. The core OTA business generated 3.2 billion RMB, up 23% year-on-year, aligning with expectations. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 430 million RMB, a 22% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit reached 660 million RMB, up 11% year-on-year [2][3]. - Strong demand for travel and international business expansion contributed to the core OTA business's revenue growth. The accommodation booking service generated 1.2 billion RMB, a 13% increase year-on-year, driven by increased accommodation demand and enhanced cross-selling strategies. The transportation booking service achieved 1.7 billion RMB, a 17% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high for quarterly revenue [2][3]. - The user base and purchase frequency continue to grow, with annual paid users reaching 230 million and cumulative service users at 1.86 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 4.8% and 29.9%, respectively. The average revenue per user (ARPU) is approximately 64 RMB, a 30% increase compared to 2019 [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 2.6 billion RMB, 3.5 billion RMB, and 4.2 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to adjusted P/E ratios of 16X, 12X, and 9X for the same years [4][3]. - Key financial metrics for 2024 include projected revenue of 17.1 billion RMB, a 44% growth rate, and an adjusted net profit of 2.7 billion RMB, reflecting a 21% increase [4][8]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was reported at 65%, a decrease of 11 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the integration of new offline vacation services and differences in the core OTA business model [2][3].