Core Viewpoint - Tongcheng Travel (00780) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 23.62, with a transaction volume of HKD 252 million, following the release of its 2026 Spring Festival travel trend report [1] Group 1: Travel Trends - The first peak of travel demand before the Spring Festival is expected around February 6, with the highest passenger flow anticipated on February 13 and 14 [1] - Domestic flight ticket prices have slightly increased compared to the same period last year during the Spring Festival [1] - Major departure cities for railway travel are concentrated in first-tier cities and regional hubs such as Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Beijing, while popular departure cities for civil aviation include Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1] Group 2: Travel Demand Insights - The "longest Spring Festival holiday in history" has significantly boosted the demand for multiple trips during this year's Spring Festival, with the proportion of travelers taking more than two flights expected to reach 13%, and those using railways likely to exceed 30%, both marking new highs since 2023 [1] - The online travel penetration rate in the lower-tier markets, which Tongcheng Travel focuses on, has substantial growth potential, indicating a strong consumer demand [1] Group 3: Company Performance - The company is actively expanding its traffic through multiple channels, including its app, and is deeply exploring consumer demand to enhance user value [1] - Recent quarterly metrics show a continuous increase in MPU (Monthly Active Users) and average revenue per user, with Q3 2025 figures reflecting growth of 3% and 12% respectively, indicating a trend of simultaneous growth in volume and price [1]

Core Insights - The report from Tongcheng Travel predicts the first wave of travel peak during the Spring Festival will occur around February 6, 2026, with the highest passenger flow expected on February 13 and 14 [1][2] - Domestic flight ticket prices have slightly increased compared to the same period last year, with average prices exceeding 950 yuan for domestic flights and around 900 yuan for international flights [2] - The longest Spring Festival holiday in history is expected to significantly boost travel demand, with over 13% of air travelers and over 30% of railway travelers anticipated to travel more than twice during the Spring Festival period, both figures representing new highs since 2023 [1][7] Travel Patterns - Major departure cities for railway travel before the Spring Festival include Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Beijing, while popular departure cities for air travel are Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [3][4] - The report indicates a clear "tidal" flow pattern between central cities and major labor-exporting areas, driven by the return of workers and office employees [2][7] - Popular travel routes during the Spring Festival include Shanghai to Chengdu, Guangzhou to Shanghai, and Shenzhen to Shanghai, among others [5][6] Passenger Demographics - The proportion of family travel during the Spring Festival is expected to rise significantly, with an estimated 39% of ticket users being family travelers, and 19% being seniors aged 60 and above [9] - The report highlights a notable increase in first-time flyers, with an expected growth of over 30% in first-time travelers during the Spring Festival, particularly among younger demographics [12] Technology Integration - The integration of travel AI is anticipated to be a major highlight for the 2026 Spring Festival, with a significant increase in inquiries related to travel planning [11] - The AI tool, DeepTrip, has seen a 100% increase in questions regarding Spring Festival travel, providing solutions for common issues such as ticket availability and pricing [11]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report on Chinese tech stocks presents an optimistic outlook for AI development by 2026, driven by both supply and demand factors [1] - The overseas expansion of internet companies is highlighted as a crucial strategy to address macroeconomic, competitive, regulatory, and geopolitical risks [1] Company Preferences - The report lists preferred stocks with an "overweight" rating, including Tencent, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, Tencent Music, NetEase, BOSS Zhipin, Manbang, Meituan, Trip.com, Tongcheng Travel, TAL Education, and Beike [1]

Group 1: Tourism Industry - The tourism market is expected to grow by over 10% in 2025, driven by the continuous release of leisure travel demand and the rise of experiential consumption [1] - Domestic tourism revenue and visitor numbers are projected to increase by 12% and 18% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, respectively [1] - Recommended stocks in the tourism industry include China Duty Free Group, Jin Jiang Hotels, ShouLai Hotels, Tongcheng Travel, and Trip.com Group [1] Group 2: Restaurant Industry - Offline consumption is gradually recovering, with domestic restaurant revenue reaching 519.9 billion and 605.7 billion yuan in October and November 2025, showing year-on-year growth of 4.99% and 4.40% [2] - The recovery of leading restaurant companies is faster than the industry average, with a focus on stocks like Green Tea Group and Haidilao [2] Group 3: Tea Beverage Industry - Since Q4 2025, same-store sales for leading tea brands like Gu Ming and Hu Shang A Yi have continued to grow at a high rate of 15-20%, aided by delivery subsidies and brand expansion into coffee and breakfast categories [3] - Despite a slight decrease in delivery subsidies, leading brands are accelerating their expansion, highlighting the advantages of top brands [3] Group 4: Online Travel Agency (OTA) Industry - The recovery of travel demand is ongoing, with OTA performance improving due to increased domestic leisure travel demand, hotel supply growth, and rising online penetration [4] - The performance of OTAs is expected to remain stable with long-term growth potential, particularly with the high growth in outbound travel [4] - Recommended stocks in the OTA sector include Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel [4] Group 5: Hotel Industry - In Q4 2025, hotel room supply is expected to grow by 6-8% year-on-year, with RevPAR remaining stable compared to 2024, benefiting from increased holiday traffic and low base effects [5] - Leading hotel companies are expected to have significant earnings elasticity in a cyclical environment, with recommendations for Jin Jiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels [5]

记者｜陈姗姗 编辑 ｜瑜见 1月19日，2026年春运首日车票（即2月2日出发的火车票）开售，同程旅行数据显示，北京前往长 春、沈阳等春运首日出发的火车线路已有多趟车次暂无余票。 同时机票预订热度持续走高，2月2日过后国内机票均价将呈一路走高态势，预计将在2月14日前后达 到近期峰值。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the industry, highlighting a favorable outlook for the tourism and leisure sectors due to government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and service spending [1][35]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of domestic tourism, with expected growth rates of 12% in revenue and 18% in visitor numbers for Q1-Q3 2025, driven by sustained leisure travel demand and the rise of experiential consumption [1][35]. - The overall tourism market is projected to grow by over 10% for the year, supported by government initiatives such as promoting spring and autumn travel and issuing cultural tourism consumption vouchers [1][35]. - Key companies recommended for investment include China Duty Free Group, Jin Jiang Hotels, Shouqi Group, Tongcheng Travel, and Ctrip Group, alongside high-growth tea beverage stocks like Gu Ming and low-valuation restaurant growth stocks like Green Tea Group [1][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Restaurant Sector - Offline consumption is gradually recovering, with Q4 restaurant revenue showing steady growth, achieving 519.9 billion and 605.7 billion yuan in October and November 2025, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.99% and 4.40% [7][10]. - Leading restaurant companies are recovering faster than the industry average, with significant revenue increases noted for major players [10][14]. 2. Tea Beverage Sector - The tea beverage sector has seen a surge in same-store sales growth due to delivery subsidies, with leading brands like Gu Ming and Hu Shang A Yi maintaining high growth rates of 15-20% [7][10][14]. - The number of new store openings has doubled compared to 2024, indicating aggressive expansion strategies among top brands [16]. 3. OTA (Online Travel Agency) - The recovery of outbound travel demand is evident, with strong performance in Southeast Asia routes and a notable increase in visitor numbers to Japan and South Korea [20][24]. - The report highlights the long-term profit potential of leading OTA companies like Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel, driven by the ongoing recovery in leisure travel demand and improved commission rates [24][25]. 4. Hotel Sector - The hotel industry is expected to see a stable RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) in Q4, with a year-on-year growth of 6-8% in room supply [29][30]. - Major hotel chains like Shouqi and Jin Jiang are projected to maintain or improve their performance, benefiting from cost reductions and increased guest traffic during holiday periods [29][30][31]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the travel sector, particularly companies involved in OTA, hotels, and scenic spots, as they are likely to benefit from favorable government policies [1][35]. - Additionally, it recommends investing in high-growth tea beverage stocks and undervalued restaurant growth stocks, indicating a diversified approach to capitalizing on the recovery in consumer spending [1][35].

2026年初，广州市地方金融管理局正式批复艺龙网信息技术（北京）有限公司全资受让广州市萤火虫小 额贷款有限责任公司100%股权，这一交易在小贷行业普遍"撤离潮"的背景下似乎有些"不合时宜"。在 央行与金融监管总局下发《小额贷款公司综合融资成本管理工作指引》，要求小贷公司新发放贷款综合 融资成本逐步压降，并最晚应于2027年底前降至1年期LPR的4倍以内（按2025年12月3%的LPR计算即 12%）的背景下，大量民企背景的小贷公司因盈利空间被挤压纷纷退出市场，此时，艺龙网的逆势收购 并非简单的战略扩张，更像是出于战略协同与合规布局的精准调控。 艺龙网的这场金融布局，手里究竟握着什么牌？ 艺龙网收购萤火虫小贷的核心逻辑在于同程系内部金融资产的优化重组，本质是通过"股权整合+牌照 协同"实现金融业务的合规升级与生态闭环构建，同时为旅游主业赋能，这一逻辑具有一定的合理性， 但也存在落地不确定性。 从合规角度看，2024 年底生效的《小额贷款公司监督管理暂行办法》对小贷公司股东资质、股权穿 透、关联交易等提出严苛要求，萤火虫小贷此前股权涉及多方间接持股，结构相对复杂。此次收购将股 权统一至同程全资控股的艺龙网名下，确 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index declined by 0.28% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.35% [1] Company Movements - Trip.com Group experienced a drop of over 19% [1] - Tongcheng Travel saw a decline of over 8% [1] - Kingdee International decreased by over 8% [1] - Alibaba Health dropped by over 7% [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor increased by over 6% [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.55%, down 149 points, closing at 26,850 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.83% [1] - The trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 163.9 billion in the morning session [1] Company Highlights - Jiexin International Resources (03858) rose over 5%, reaching a new high as black tungsten ore prices surpassed 500,000 yuan, prompting several tungsten companies to raise long-term contract prices [1] - Likin Resources (02245) increased by over 10% due to disruptions in Indonesian nickel ore quotas, while Zhongwei New Materials (02579) gained over 9% [1] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) experienced significant volatility, rising by 8% after announcing the termination of its spin-off listing plan and plans to rename itself "Rare Earth Gold" [1] - Ocean Park Hong Kong (02255) surged over 10%, with visitor numbers on the first day of the New Year holiday increasing by 60% year-on-year [1] - Zhipu (02513) rose over 4% after announcing a collaboration with Huawei to open-source a new generation image generation model [1] - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) increased by over 4%, anticipating a potential global urea supply shortage, and has been actively repurchasing shares [1] - Woan Robotics (06600) gained over 7% following the release of its humanoid intelligent robot, Onero [1] - Jiantao Laminates (01888) saw a nearly 6% increase after announcing a price hike, which is expected to become a trend in the copper-clad laminate industry [1] - Qiu Tai Technology (01478) declined over 7% as Citigroup reported that the company's net profit last year fell below expectations [1] Other Notable Movements - Kanglong Chemical (03759) dropped over 5% after announcing a placement of shares at an 8.5% discount, aiming to raise nearly HKD 1.32 billion [2] - Trip.com Group (09961) plummeted over 19% due to an investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation for alleged monopoly practices, while Same City Travel (00780) fell over 11% [2]

Market Overview - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a collective adjustment, with companies like Tongyu Communication and Fenghuo Communication hitting the daily limit down, while Jili Rigging fell over 8% [1] - The A-share market opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.93% [1][2] - The AI application sector saw a decline, with CRO, commercial aerospace, brain-computer interface, nuclear fusion, and Yushu Robotics concepts leading the losses [2] Company Specifics - Tianpu Co. opened near the daily limit down after receiving an inquiry letter from the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding its main business and executive qualifications [2] - Ctrip Group's stock fell nearly 15% following an investigation by the market regulatory authority, while other companies like Tongcheng Travel and Xpeng Motors also saw declines of over 2% [4][6] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index was at 4106.22, down 19.87 points or 0.48% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index was at 14158.66, down 89.94 points or 0.63% [2] - The ChiNext Index was at 3318.11, down 31.03 points or 0.93% [2] - The Science and Technology Innovation Index was at 1818.17, down 17.24 points or 0.94% [2]