Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook despite ongoing challenges [5]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a significant reduction in sales and profitability due to increased impairment pressures, although some leading firms are showing resilience [2][4]. - The overall investment landscape is shifting towards top-tier firms, which are capturing a larger share of new value and demonstrating stronger sales performance [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview of Real Estate Development - Sales for the top 100 real estate companies reached CNY 2.5 trillion and 120 million square meters from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.8% and 23.2% respectively. Leading firms like China Jinmao, Jianfa, and Yuexiu showed positive growth [2][14]. - New value added by the top 100 firms was CNY 1.8 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%, driven by the supply of premium land in core cities and increased investment enthusiasm from leading firms [2][19]. - Revenue for 11 sample firms fell to CNY 768.8 billion, down 11.3% year-on-year, while gross margin decreased slightly to 13.0%, with a much smaller decline compared to the previous year [2][26]. - The industry is facing significant impairment pressures, with total impairment provisions reaching CNY 278.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, up from CNY 174.2 billion in the same period last year [2][34]. 2. Changes in Real Estate Fund Holdings - As of Q3 2025, the real estate sector's heavy stock holdings accounted for 0.52% of total fund investments, with a total market value of CNY 19.72 billion, indicating a recovery in holdings [3][44]. - The number of real estate stocks held by funds decreased to 47, reflecting a decline in concentration among top holdings [3][55]. - The overall market for real estate stocks has remained stable, with policy easing contributing to a more favorable investment environment [3][45]. 3. Analysis of High-Performing Stocks - Four high-performing real estate companies were identified: New City Holdings, China Jinmao, Jianfa International Group, and Binjiang Group, all of which have significantly outperformed the market in 2025 [4][44]. - The stock prices of these firms have risen substantially, with increases of 22.9%, 45.8%, 34.5%, and 28.9% respectively, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index's increase of 16.3% [4][44]. - The investment logic for these quality firms has gained market recognition, indicating a consensus among investors regarding their undervaluation [4][44].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in Chinese property stocks is primarily driven by increasing policy expectations, with the potential for this outperformance to continue until the next government meeting in late November or December [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The fundamentals of the industry indicate a rising probability of new policy support [1] - The preferred stocks in the sector include China Resources Land, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, and China Jinmao [1] - Longfor Group is considered to have the best risk-reward ratio amid the policy-driven rebound [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Real Estate Stocks - The upward trend in Hong Kong real estate stocks is attributed to increased confidence in the market recovery [1] - Despite a positive outlook on the market, valuations of residential stocks have fully reflected the expectations of a comprehensive recovery, with Sun Hung Kai Properties' adjusted stock price reaching historical highs while the secondary property price index remains 26% below its peak [1] - Currently, the risk-reward profile for rental property stocks is viewed as more favorable, with top picks being Swire Properties, Hang Lung Properties, Link REIT, and Wharf Real Estate Investment Company [1] - Among developers, the company favors Sino Land and Henderson Land [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate industry is undergoing a significant transformation from "scale competition" to "quality competition," with Shanghai serving as a benchmark for the quality capabilities of real estate companies [2] Group 1: Company Issues - China Jinmao (00817.HK) is facing public scrutiny in the Shanghai market due to various issues, including quality defects in its high-end "Fu" series products and controversies surrounding sales data [2][3] - The Jinmao Puyuan project, a new high-end product line, has seen a significant drop in its initial sales figures, raising concerns about the authenticity of its marketing claims [4][7] - Reports indicate that the project has not sold out as previously claimed, with a notable number of units still available for sale two months after the initial launch [7][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a shift in buyer expectations, with increased awareness and demands for quality, amenities, and fulfillment of sales promises [3][19] - Jinmao's sales performance in Shanghai is lagging behind competitors, with a total sales figure of 14.517 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, ranking 13th among local developers [17][18] - The competitive landscape has shifted from "concept marketing" to "quality fulfillment," necessitating a reevaluation of Jinmao's strategies in land acquisition and project development [19][20] Group 3: Brand Perception - The brand's high-end positioning is being diluted due to issues with project quality and marketing practices, leading to a decline in consumer trust [16][19] - There are concerns that the rapid expansion of Jinmao's high-end product line may compromise the brand's core values and quality standards [16][20] - Experts suggest that Jinmao must focus on systemic reforms across various dimensions, including design, construction management, and customer service, to restore brand credibility [20]

Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao reported its unaudited sales data for October 2025, indicating a strong performance in signed sales and total sales volume for the year to date [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In October 2025, China Jinmao and its subsidiaries achieved a signed sales amount of RMB 11.997 billion, with a signed sales area of 331,500 square meters [1] - From January to October 2025, the group accumulated a total signed sales amount of RMB 92.682 billion, which includes several key projects such as Changsha Meixi Lake International New City and Nanjing Qinglongshan International Ecological New City, among others [1] - The total signed sales area for the same period reached 4.006 million square meters [1] Group 2: Property Sales - As of October 31, 2025, China Jinmao recorded a subscribed (not yet signed) property sales amount of RMB 1.503 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited reported its unaudited sales data for October 2025, indicating a strong performance in property sales with significant figures in both sales amount and area sold [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In October 2025, China Jinmao and its subsidiaries achieved a contracted sales amount of RMB 11.997 billion, with a contracted sales area of 331,500 square meters [1]. - For the first ten months ending October 1, 2025, the cumulative contracted sales amount reached RMB 92.682 billion, including various significant projects across multiple cities [1]. - The total contracted sales area for the same period was 4.006 million square meters [1]. Group 2: Uncontracted Sales - As of October 31, 2025, China Jinmao recorded a subscribed (uncontracted) property sales amount of RMB 1.503 billion [2].

Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao (00817) reported a year-on-year increase in signed sales amount and area for October 2025, indicating a positive trend in the company's sales performance [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In October 2025, the company and its subsidiaries achieved a signed sales amount of RMB 11.997 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [1] - The total signed sales amount for the first ten months of 2025 reached RMB 92.682 billion, which is a year-on-year increase of 23.57% [1] - The total signed sales area for the first ten months was 4.006 million square meters [1] Group 2: Property Sales - As of October 31, 2025, the company had achieved a subscribed (but not yet signed) property sales amount of RMB 1.503 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao (00817) reported a year-on-year increase in signed sales amount and area for October 2025, indicating a positive trend in the company's sales performance [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In October 2025, the company and its subsidiaries achieved a signed sales amount of RMB 11.997 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [1] - The total signed sales amount for the first ten months of 2025 reached RMB 92.682 billion, which is a year-on-year increase of 23.57% [1] - The total signed sales area for the first ten months of 2025 was 4.006 million square meters [1] Group 2: Property Sales - As of October 31, 2025, the company had achieved a subscribed (but not yet signed) property sales amount of RMB 1.503 billion [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited （於香港註冊成立的有限公司） （股票代號：00817） 公告 2025年10月未經審核銷售數據 中國金茂控股集團有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）謹此公佈，2025年10 月份，本公司及其附屬公司（「本集團」）取得簽約銷售金額人民幣11,997百萬元， 簽約銷售建築面積331,460.63平方米。截至2025年10月31日止10個月，本集團累 計取得簽約銷售金額共計人民幣92,682百萬元（其中包含（如有）長沙梅溪湖國際 新城項目、南京青龍山國際生態新城項目、寧波生命科學城項目、嘉興上海之窗 智慧科學城項目、鄭州二七區馬寨新城項目、溫州鰲江國際新城項目、金華金茂 未來科學城項目及上海橫沔城市運營項目的成交銷售金額），以及累計簽約銷售建 築面積4,006,017.40平方米。 此外，於2025年10月31日，本集團已錄得已認購 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong property stocks experienced a rise, with notable increases in several companies' stock prices [1] - Greentown China saw a significant increase of 9.09%, reaching a latest price of 9.000 and a total market capitalization of 22.856 billion [2] - Other companies such as Oceanwide Holdings and R&F Properties also reported substantial gains of 8.65% and 7.55% respectively [2] Group 2 - Shimao Group increased by 5.77%, with a latest price of 0.275 and a market cap of 23.66 billion [2] - Companies like Jianfa International Group, China Resources Land, and China Jinmao rose over 4%, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1][2] - Year-to-date performance shows mixed results, with some companies like Oceanwide Holdings and R&F Properties down by 54.25% and 58.09% respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [14] Core Insights - The industry is currently experiencing downward pressure, but after over four years of adjustment, it may have entered the latter half of the cycle. Individual performance among companies is beginning to show significant differentiation. Structural turning points in profitability are expected due to optimized land reserves, with some high-quality companies already seeing performance improvements [22][12][20] Summary by Sections Profitability - Revenue decline has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% for key real estate companies in Q1-Q3 2025. The gross profit margin improved by 0.1 percentage points to 9.3%. However, individual profitability is increasingly differentiated, with companies like Binhai Group and Urban Development seeing over 40% growth in net profit [8][21][26] Debt Management - Maintaining financial safety is crucial, with a slight increase of 0.6% in interest-bearing debt by the end of Q3 2025. The overall debt risk in the industry is being cleared, and companies are beginning to tilt towards operational sustainability while ensuring financial safety [9][48][49] Cash Flow - Operating cash receipts saw a year-on-year decline of 9.3%, but the decrease has narrowed significantly. Investment activities remain restrained, and financing activities continue to show net outflows. Companies are focusing on cash flow safety through stringent cash management [10][24][48] Operations - Sales decline has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.2% in sales amount for key companies. However, land acquisition has become more aggressive, with a 110.4% increase in land acquisition amount. The focus is shifting towards land quality, with floor prices rising by 38.9% [11][20][22]