Core Viewpoint - The recent land auction in Hefei saw three residential plots successfully sold, with the most notable being the Shuxihu GX202504 plot, which was unexpectedly acquired by Jinmao at a lower-than-expected price of 1,526 million CNY per mu, indicating cautious bidding behavior among developers [1][2][10]. Summary by Category Land Auction Results - The Shuxihu GX202504 plot was sold to Jinmao for 1,526 million CNY per mu, resulting in a floor price of 17,607.69 CNY per square meter, which is below market expectations of over 20,000 CNY per square meter [2][4]. - The JK202502 plot in the Economic Development Zone was acquired by China Resources for 1,282 million CNY per mu, with a floor price of 10,683 CNY per square meter [6]. - The GX202503 plot in the High-tech Zone was won by Hefei High-tech City Development Group at a base price of 948 million CNY per mu, translating to a floor price of 7,900 CNY per square meter [8]. Developer Participation and Market Sentiment - The bidding process for the Shuxihu plot was cautious, concluding in just over twenty rounds, reflecting a lack of strong confidence among developers despite the plot's desirability [2][10]. - Overall, developers' willingness to acquire land remains weak, as evidenced by the conservative bidding even for prime plots like Shuxihu [10]. Upcoming Auctions - The next round of land auctions is scheduled for June 28, with 18 residential plots initially planned, but seven plots were withdrawn due to a lack of bidders [12]. - The most anticipated plot in the upcoming auction is the Yaogongmiao 07 plot, with six developers, including Greentown and China Merchants, expressing interest [12][13].

2025.06. 27 6月27日，多城土地集中出让，央企中国金茂拿地积极，一日之内落子三城。 在成都，龙泉驿区一涉宅组合用地出让，该组合地块由两宗宅地组成，总土地出让面积103161.7平方 米，总规划建筑面积257904.24平方米，总起始价26.32亿元，最终成都经开国投和中国金茂联合体竞 得，成交价为底价26.32亿元。 在杭州，金茂旗下公司以11.57亿元的总价，竞得原运河新城单元GS1004-9-2地块，成交楼面价41240 元/平方米。据悉，该地块出让面积20044平方米，容积率1.4，起价7.42亿元，楼面起价26451元/平方 米，最终溢价率达到55.91%。 合肥也迎来一场土拍热潮，今日市区3宗住宅地块出让。中国金茂以总价13.55亿元拿下高新蜀西湖地 块，楼面价17608元/平方米；其余地块被华润和高新城发拿下，总价分别为3.45亿和3.44亿，楼面价分 别为10683元/平方米、7900元/平方米。 如果不计拿地权益占比，中国金茂今日三宗地块的投资规模达到51.44亿元。 作为行业老牌央企，中国金茂近年来有重新发力之势，拿地规模明显提升。近五年房企新增货值榜显示， 金茂的行业排名从20 ...

6月27日，多城土地集中出让，央企中国金茂拿地积极，一日之内落子三城。 在成都，龙泉驿区一涉宅组合用地出让，该组合地块由两宗宅地组成，总土地出让面积103161.7平方 米，总规划建筑面积257904.24平方米，总起始价26.32亿元，最终成都经开国投和中国金茂联合体竞 得，成交价为底价26.32亿元。 在杭州，金茂旗下公司以11.57亿元的总价，竞得原运河新城单元GS1004-9-2地块，成交楼面价41240元/ 平方米。据悉，该地块出让面积20044平方米，容积率1.4，起价7.42亿元，楼面起价26451元/平方米， 最终溢价率达到55.91%。 合肥也迎来一场土拍热潮，今日市区3宗住宅地块出让。中国金茂以总价13.55亿元拿下高新蜀西湖地 块，楼面价17608元/平方米；其余地块被华润和高新城发拿下，总价分别为3.45亿和3.44亿，楼面价分 别为10683元/平方米、7900元/平方米。 今日多城土地集中出让，央企中国金茂拿地积极。 去年四季度以来，金茂已明显加大投资力度，全年权益土地款支出202亿，权益占比61%，部分项目与 华润、保利、建发等合作开发；拿地区域重回一二线，京沪成为投资重心。 进 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 2025年1-5月，百城宅地成交建面同比-3.4%，成交楼面均价同比+26.2% 2025年1-5月，百城住宅类用地成交建面为6,991万平，累计同比-3.4%；成交楼面均价为7,466元/平方米， 累计同比+26.2%。分能级城市来看，1-5月， 一线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为464万平，累计同比+5.3%；成交建面为305万平，累计同比-12.6%；成 交楼面均价为42,605元/平方米，累计同比+50.6%。 二线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为4,105万平，累计同比-2.9%；成交建面为3,197万平，累计同比+7.1%； 成交楼面均价为8,735元/平方米，累计同比+19.1%。 三线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为3,89 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite a deep adjustment in the real estate market, the enthusiasm for land auctions in hot cities continues to persist, with significant competition among major developers for prime land parcels [1][2][3]. Group 1: Land Auction Highlights - On June 26, a residential and commercial land parcel in Chengdu was sold for a total price of 572 million yuan, with a floor price of 19,200 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 19.25% [1]. - In Tianjin, three residential plots were sold on June 25, with a total price of 259 million yuan and a premium of 16.93% for one of the plots [1]. - The land auction in Shanghai on June 19-20 saw five out of six plots sold at a premium, totaling 21.257 billion yuan, with the most notable plot in Yangpu District fetching a record floor price of 95,530 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 30.79% [3][6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Developer Behavior - Developers are increasingly focusing on hot cities and areas with guaranteed liquidity, as evidenced by the high average premium rates exceeding 15% in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu during the first five months of the year [2][22]. - The trend of high premium land sales is accompanied by instances of land being sold at base prices in various cities, indicating a divergence in market conditions [1][21]. - Major developers such as Poly Developments and China Overseas Land & Investment are actively participating in land auctions, with Poly leading in land acquisition value at 41.32 billion yuan in the first five months of the year [15][14]. Group 3: Land Market Dynamics - The land market is experiencing a significant divide, with core city plots attracting high premiums while non-core areas see declining interest from developers [22][23]. - The average premium rates in core cities reflect a strong demand for quality land, while areas with less favorable attributes are struggling to attract bids, often resulting in base price sales [22][23]. - Developers are adjusting their strategies to focus on high-quality, high-turnover projects in first and second-tier cities, while reducing investments in lower-tier cities to manage risks effectively [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The successful sale of the NY-030 (South District) R2 residential land in Fengtai District for 2.08 billion yuan indicates a strategic move by the joint venture of Jianfa and Jinmao, reflecting confidence in the area's development potential and market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Land Transaction Details - The land was sold at a base price of 2.08 billion yuan, resulting in a floor price of 40,200 yuan per square meter [1]. - The land is located between the fourth and fifth ring roads in Fengtai, approximately 500 meters from the Xinjing Station, which connects Metro Lines 19 and 4 [3]. - The total area of the land is 25,900 square meters with a plot ratio of 2.0 and a height limit of 45 meters (60 meters in some areas) [4]. Group 2: Market Context and Implications - The area surrounding the land is well-developed with commercial facilities, including Wanda Plaza and Dayue Chunfengli, and is rich in ecological resources, although educational resources are currently lacking [3]. - The successful acquisition of this land follows the positive market performance of the Jianfa Jinmao Guancheng project, which was launched after obtaining a pre-sale permit [4]. - The transaction aligns with the market supply rhythm, as the previous land parcels were initially bundled but were later split to enhance the likelihood of successful sales [4][5]. Group 3: Future Development Potential - The acquisition of the 02 land plot is seen as a recognition of the area's development potential and land value, with plans for the NY-030 (North District) plot to also enter the market [5]. - If Jianfa successfully integrates the North District plot, it could facilitate comprehensive development in the area and allow for better control over development pace and regional value [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent acquisition of the NY-030-02 land parcel by the joint venture of Jianfa and Jinmao for 2.08 billion yuan indicates a strong belief in the area's development potential and land value, likely leading to the creation of a second phase of the Jianfa Jinmao Guancheng project [1][4]. Group 1: Land Acquisition and Development - The NY-030-02 land parcel has a planned construction area of approximately 51,800 square meters and is designated for R2 residential use [4]. - The land is strategically located between the fourth and fifth ring roads in Fengtai District, close to the New Palace subway station, enhancing its accessibility [4]. - The successful sale of the NY-030-02 land is expected to align with the typical cycle from land acquisition to project launch, reflecting the local government's strategy in managing market supply [4][6]. Group 2: Market Performance and Strategy - Jianfa's first project in the New Palace area, Jianfa Jingyuan, received its pre-sale permit in March 2023 and has nearly sold out, demonstrating strong market performance [5]. - The success of Jianfa Jingyuan is attributed to its quality delivery and the area's existing transportation and commercial infrastructure, which enhances the overall living environment [5]. - The deep cultivation strategy employed by Jianfa in the region is expected to create a "red plate effect," attracting more homebuyers and facilitating faster sales for new projects [6]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The acquisition of the NY-030-02 land may lead to the integration of the NY-030 (North District) land parcel, allowing Jianfa to enhance overall development and resource integration in the area [6]. - This strategy could help control development pace and improve regional value, further solidifying Jianfa's presence in the market [6].

中国金茂公告，苏州腾茂(公司间接全资附属公司)与苏州淳茂签署股权转让协议，同意收购而苏州淳茂 同意出售上海洮茂49%的股权，总对价约为21.37亿元。于本次交易完成后，上海洮茂将成为公司的间 接全资附属公司。 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with policies aimed at maintaining a steady market expected to continue throughout the year [2][9] - The central government has set a tone for real estate policies to stabilize the market through urban renewal and the release of rigid and improvement demands [11][12] - The demand side is seeing policy adjustments to stimulate housing demand, including optimizing housing fund loan policies and increasing purchase subsidies [15][16] Group 2: Property Sector Insights - The property service sector is stabilizing, with a slowdown in management scale growth and stable property fee changes [3][6] - The financial performance of property services shows a prominent increase in revenue without a corresponding increase in profit, indicating a trend towards reliance on the parent company [3][6] Group 3: REITs and Investment Opportunities - The REITs sector is expanding rapidly, with a stable performance in consumer and affordable housing categories [4][6] - The issuance of special bonds for land acquisition is accelerating, with significant planned investments in idle land across various provinces [18][19] - The city village renovation policies are being implemented successfully, with several cities exploring or launching housing voucher policies for urban renewal [21][22] Group 4: Supply Side Developments - The standards for "good housing" are becoming clearer, with over 30 provinces and cities introducing new construction standards aimed at improving housing quality [23][24] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has released guidelines focusing on the construction of high-quality residential projects [23][24] Group 5: Sales Trends - New home sales are expected to see a narrowing year-on-year decline, while the enthusiasm for second-hand homes is likely to persist [27][28] - The sales performance of top developers shows a concentration of sales among leading companies, with a slight year-on-year decrease in core city sales [32][34] - The market is experiencing significant polarization, with varying de-stocking effects across major cities [37][41] Group 6: Land Market Dynamics - The concentration of land sales in core cities is increasing, indicating a sustained interest from developers in acquiring land [45][46] - The land transaction volumes and prices in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou reflect a competitive land market [49][52]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price range of 1.18 to 1.24 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 20% to 26% from the current price of 1.06 HKD [5][3][19]. Core Insights - The company has successfully turned around its performance, achieving profitability in 2024 due to reduced inventory impairment provisions, improved gross margins in development, decreased operating expenses, and increased contributions from joint ventures [1][19][3]. - The company maintains a diversified business structure, focusing on urban and property development, commercial leasing, hotel operations, and property services, with urban and property development accounting for over 80% of its revenue [1][15][19]. - The company has a strong sales performance, ranking 12th in the industry with sales of 98.3 billion RMB in 2024, and has a healthy land bank with 87% of unsold value located in first- and second-tier cities [2][62][83]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a platform enterprise in urban operations under China National Chemical Corporation, with a stable shareholding structure and diversified business segments [1][11][12]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 59.1 billion RMB, a decrease of 19% year-on-year, but achieved a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, marking a turnaround from losses [4][19][17]. - The company has cumulatively recognized 17.4 billion RMB in impairments since 2020, with a significant reduction in impairment provisions in 2024 [3][21]. Business Segments - **Urban and Property Development**: The company launched a new product line, contributing 49.2 billion RMB in revenue, with a gross margin of 11% [31][19]. - **Commercial Leasing and Retail Operations**: This segment generated 1.6 billion RMB in revenue, with a high occupancy rate and stable rental income [46][47]. - **Hotel Operations**: The hotel segment faced challenges, generating 1.7 billion RMB in revenue, with a gross margin of 36% [54][56]. - **Property Services**: The property services segment, which was spun off in 2022, contributed 3 billion RMB in revenue, reflecting a 10% increase [58][60]. Sales and Land Bank - The company achieved sales of 98.3 billion RMB in 2024, with a sales area of 5.82 million square meters and an average selling price of 16,887 RMB per square meter [62][68]. - The company has a robust land bank, with unsold value of approximately 280 billion RMB, primarily located in economically developed regions [83][84]. Debt Management - The company has optimized its debt structure, with a reasonable debt maturity profile and a reduction in the proportion of short-term debt to 18% [89][90].