Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property stocks experienced a collective decline after a brief rise, indicating market skepticism about the sustainability of recent policy changes aimed at boosting the real estate sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Major property stocks such as Shimao Group, New World Development, and Greentown China saw significant declines, with Shimao Group dropping by 6.4% and New World Development by 4.55% [1] - Other companies like China Jinmao, Midea Real Estate, and Country Garden also faced losses, with declines exceeding 2% [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The recent policy adjustment in Shanghai, known as "Six Measures," allows unlimited purchases for eligible buyers outside the outer ring and treats single buyers as families, which initially boosted market confidence [1] - Despite the short-term positive impact, there are ongoing doubts about the long-term effectiveness of these policies and the actual improvement in the market fundamentals [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market requires continuous support beyond initial policy changes, with a focus on whether more cities will follow suit and how existing policies will be implemented, particularly regarding credit support [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the launch of a long-awaited pure villa project in Guangzhou's core urban area, named Jinmao Yuexiu | Puyue Villa, developed by China Jinmao and Yuexiu Property [1][5] - The project is located in the World Grand View area, which has seen significant developments including the establishment of educational institutions and various themed parks [7] - The project features high-end residential styles from both Jinmao and Yuexiu, designed by renowned international design firms [5] Group 2 - In April, Jinmao acquired the World Grand View Phase IV land parcel for 1.077 billion yuan, with a low plot ratio of 1.1, suggesting a focus on villa-type products [3] - The newly unveiled villa project offers 110 units with a building area ranging from 190 to 360 square meters, starting at a total price of 20 million yuan [7] - The previous Yuexiu project in the same area had a signed average price of 78,000 yuan per square meter in 2024, projected to rise to 87,000 yuan per square meter in 2025, indicating a strong market demand [7]

为鼓励和吸引人才在上海生活，上海官方也对符合条件的非沪籍居民家庭所购第一套房，暂免征收房产 税。第二套及以上住房，人均可扣除60平方米的免税面积。2025年1月1日起符合条件的购房者可享受这 条政策。 这是上海今年首次出台政策优化房地产政策。去年5月和9月，上海市两次出手放宽政策刺激楼市。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨跌幅 √ | 最新价 | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02202 | 万科企业 | (0) | 9.86% | 5.680 | 677.66亿 | | 00081 | 中国海外宏洋集团 | | 6.98% | 2.300 | 81.87 亿 | | 03377 | 远洋集团 | | 6.78% | 0.126 | 14.05亿 | | 01918 | 融创中国 | | 6.58% | 1.620 | 185.81 乙 | | 03301 | 融信中国 | | 5.50% | 0.211 | 3.55 Z | | 00960 | 龙湖集团 | | 5.22% | 11.280 | 788.15亿 | | 02777 | 富力地产 | ...

而在这两个项目，涅槃重生的故事背后，其实就埋藏好伏笔。这些年，行业出险房企只增不减，而遗留下来的，是那些停工楼盘、烂尾项目、以及未开工 的土地。 去年，国家不遗余力推进保交楼、推进房企融资白名单，全面建立了机制。于是，这个全新的赛道，现在许多房企现在正扎堆进入：不良资产代建。 如果说，在上海最命运多舛的楼盘，你会想到谁？ 我想，我会提名这两个知名的滨江豪宅，一个经历二十多年，开发商数次暴雷，归来仍是热销盘的融创外滩壹号院，另一个是屹立在东外滩多年烂尾的八 埭头。 回顾它诞生的来龙去脉，这个盘几乎没错过关于房地产的所有周期，期间更是经历了数次股权变更。 2002年泛海国际董家渡拿地→ 2015年才完成第一块地拆迁→ 泛海受困于资金→ 2019年融创收购项目100%股权→ 2022年融创债务危机→2022 年中信信托、华融资产成大股东→ 2024年项目热销超200亿，位居上海单盘第二 这是一个上海核心旧改地块涅槃重生的故事，其精彩程度堪比爽文，这次男主依旧还是融创和孙宏斌。 而另一个楼盘八埭头滨江园，2024年项目仍处于停工状态，如今也迎来白衣骑士，业主们在杂草丛生的社区生活了好几年之后，AMC机构终于为这个接 ...

Core Insights - The definition and construction path of "good houses" have become a core topic in the real estate industry, with a shift from scale expansion to quality enhancement as the industry seeks new development logic [1] - Real estate companies unanimously agree that the industry is entering a product-oriented era, focusing on quality and customer experience rather than just availability [2] Group 1: Industry Trends - The real estate sector has transitioned from high-speed growth to a focus on product quality, with customers increasingly concerned about construction quality, living experience, and after-sales service [2] - Companies are adopting strict quality control systems and emphasizing product differentiation to meet evolving consumer demands [2][4] - The concept of "good houses" is expanding beyond basic living functions to include health environments, smart homes, community relationships, and supporting services [3] Group 2: Company Strategies - New East Rising Group emphasizes a "build well before expanding" approach, achieving over 20% higher sales rates compared to competitors in key second and third-tier cities, indicating that superior products can capture market share [2] - Longfor's digital construction system aims to enhance efficiency and product consistency, making high-quality housing more accessible [3] - China Jinmao is focusing on creating a "healthy residential" product line that addresses air quality, lighting, and sound insulation, in response to post-pandemic consumer preferences [4] - China Resources Land is implementing a "regional deep cultivation" strategy, tailoring products to local market demands and cultural contexts, which may incur higher initial costs but promises better returns [5]

在房地产行业向存量时代深度转型的关键阶段，中国金茂始终将深化第二增长曲线作为核心战略方向，坚定践行精品持有发展路径。通过持续精进"投融建 管退"全周期资产管理能力，中国金茂不断夯实资产运营功底，逐步将精品持有业务打造成驱动企业可持续增长的核心引擎。 随着战略的深入推进，中国金茂精品持有版图持续扩大，资产规模与质量显著提升。2025年上半年，北京佑安府长租公寓、常熟昆承湖丰茂里、青岛东方伊 甸园三个聚焦不同场景、业态的标杆项目集中入市，进一步强化了中国金茂在持有类商用资产领域的业态布局及竞争优势，为第二增长曲线注入强劲的发展 动能。 韧行致远筑增长新引擎 近年来，中国金茂持有业务版图持续扩容。截至目前，在营项目已达80个，体量约360万㎡，叠加在建、待建项目，持有业务规模近600万㎡。精准布局北 京、上海、广州、深圳、天津、青岛、苏州、温州、宁波、长沙等核心城市，构建起覆盖写字楼、酒店、集中商业、社区商业、产业园区及文旅项目等多元 化业态矩阵。 "丰茂里"作为中国金茂旗下社区商业品牌，通过美好生活方式场景的呈现，凝聚人间烟火气，延展生活宽度。已在苏州、温州、金华、长沙等城市成功落 地，展现出强劲的发展势头。今年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to stabilize both the real estate and stock markets. The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5][49] - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the real estate market to boost social expectations and facilitate domestic demand circulation amid uncertainties in external environments, such as ongoing Sino-US trade frictions [5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.5%, the ChiNext Index grew by 8.6%, and the CSI 300 Index went up by 2.4%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) saw an increase of 3.9% [6][9] - In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers were Wantong Development (+39.4%), Quzhou Development (+33.0%), Electronic City (+32.0%), *ST Nanzhi (+25.0%), and Shahe Shares (+21.2%) [6][9] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of August 9-15, 2025, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 141 million square meters, a decrease of 1.4% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 20.4% [16] - As of August 15, 2025, new housing transactions in 42 key cities for the month totaled 306 million square meters, down 9.5% month-on-month and down 20.9% year-on-year [20] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of August 9-15, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 178 million square meters, an increase of 3.0% week-on-week but a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% [31] - As of August 15, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities for the month totaled 381 million square meters, down 5.5% month-on-month and down 2.1% year-on-year [36] Industry News - From January to July 2025, national real estate development investment reached 535.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The sales area of commercial housing was 51.56 million square meters, down 4% year-on-year [49] - Local policies include Hainan Province encouraging "purchase instead of construction" for resettling relocated residents and Guangzhou releasing new regulations for rural residential construction management [49] Company Announcements - In July 2025, China Jinmao achieved a sales amount of 8.46 billion yuan (up 49% year-on-year), while New Town Holdings reported 1.66 billion yuan (down 52% year-on-year) [52] - China Resources Land reported a sales amount of 13.3 billion yuan (down 14% year-on-year) for July 2025 [52]

上 市 公 司 房地产 2025 年 08 月 20 日 中国金茂 (00817) ——积极转变，焕新启航 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 1.57 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9013.27 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 1.80/0.61 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 212.04 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 13,505.97 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0932 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -3% 197% 08/20 09/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 HSCEI 中国金茂 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 (8621)23297818× ca ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in 2024 Core Insights - The average revenue of the top 30 listed real estate companies in China is projected to decline by approximately 13.83% in 2024, totaling around RMB 2.77 trillion [9] - The average gross margin for these companies is expected to decrease to about 14.42%, down by 1.86% from the previous year [13] - The average net profit margin is projected to be around -10.81%, reflecting a significant decline of 12.45% compared to the previous year [16] - The average return on equity is expected to drop to approximately -20.75%, a decrease of 16.44% from 2023 [59] Summary by Sections 1. Revenue Overview - The total revenue for the top 30 listed real estate companies in 2024 is estimated at RMB 2.77 trillion, a decline of 13.83% year-on-year [9] - Financial Street leads the revenue growth with an increase of 51.74%, reaching RMB 190.75 billion [8] - 20 companies experienced revenue declines, with Midea Real Estate facing the largest drop at 94.94% [9] 2. Gross Margin Overview - The average gross margin for the top 30 companies is projected to be 14.42%, down 1.86% from the previous year [13] - Midea Real Estate shows the highest increase in gross margin at approximately 24.21% [14] - 23 companies reported a decline in gross margin, with Jinhui experiencing the largest drop of 30.80% [13] 3. Net Profit Overview - The average net profit for the top 30 companies is expected to be a loss of RMB 11.65 billion, a decline of 62.09 billion from a profit of RMB 50.44 billion in 2023 [23] - China Resources leads in net profit with RMB 336.78 billion, although this represents a 9.72% decrease from the previous year [24] - Over 70% of companies reported a decline in net profit, with Vanke transitioning from a profit of RMB 204.56 billion to a loss of approximately RMB 487.04 billion [23] 4. Inventory Overview - The total inventory for the top 30 companies is projected to be approximately RMB 60.85 billion, a decrease of 13.58% year-on-year [33] - Only one company, Ruian, reported an increase in inventory, with a growth of 16.03% [33] - Midea Real Estate experienced the largest inventory decline at 99.11% [33] 5. Liquidity Ratios - The average current ratio for the top 30 companies is expected to be 152.86%, a slight increase of 0.15% from the previous year [42] - 16 companies reported a decline in their current ratios, with Xinda showing the largest drop of 39.17% [42] 6. Cash Short-term Debt Ratio - The average cash short-term debt ratio is projected to be 1.52, a decrease of 0.11 from the previous year [54] - Ocean Group has the lowest cash short-term debt ratio at 0.01, while Binhai has the highest at 5.53 [54] 7. Return on Equity Overview - The average return on equity is expected to be -20.75%, a decline of 16.44% from 2023 [59] - Only two companies, Jinmao and New Town, are expected to report positive returns on equity [59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate sector, specifically recommending China Merchants Shekou's issuance of 1 billion yuan in medium-term notes [2]. Core Insights - The real estate sector index increased by 3.9% in the 33rd week, ranking 6th among 31 primary industry sectors [8]. - New home transactions in 20 monitored cities decreased by 21% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions in 11 cities saw a slight decline of 2% year-on-year [21][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of effective policies and broad fiscal measures to support the market, with a focus on urban village renovations and inventory management [29]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total number of listed companies in the real estate sector is 107, with a total market capitalization of 1,198.27 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,148.68 billion yuan [2]. Sales Performance - In the 33rd week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 cities was 20.0 million square meters, reflecting a 2% decrease from the previous week and a 21% decrease year-on-year [19]. - The total transaction area for new homes in the first seven months of the year was 63.8 million square meters, down 8% year-on-year [21]. Financing Activities - Most bond issuances in the week were from local state-owned enterprises, with China Merchants Shekou and Poly Real Estate issuing the largest amounts [27][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product moats, stable rental income from quality commercial real estate, and the stock brokerage business in the existing housing market. Key companies to watch include Greentown China, China Resources Land, Swire Properties, China Resources Mixc Life, and Beike-W [29].