财通证券发布研报称，短期看，基本面进一步下行带来的政策宽松预期有望推动板块估值修复，长期需 关注房企在新模式下的发展机遇。建议短期关注政策宽松带来的估值修复机会，中长期聚焦具备核心城 市资源和不动产运营能力的龙头企业。 智通财经APP获悉，内房股今日普涨，截至发稿，保利置业集团(00119)涨6.49%，报1.97港元；中国金 茂(00817)涨3.31%，报1.25港元；新城发展(01030)涨2.44%，报2.1港元；中国奥园(03883)涨2.38%，报 0.086港元。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited 中國金茂控股集團有限公 司 （於香港註冊成立的有限公司） （股票代號：00817） 人力資源服務框架協議下的持續關連交易 董事會謹此宣佈，於2025年12月18日，本公司與中化方勝訂立人力資源服務框 架協議，據此，本集團將於其認為有需要時不時使用中化方勝提供的人力資源 服務。人力資源服務框架協議將自簽訂之日起生效，有效期至2027年12月31日 止。 上市規則的涵義 於本公告日期，中國中化為本公司的最終控股股東，間接持有本公司已發行股 份總數約38.36%，中化方勝由中國中化之間接非全資附屬公司中化石油擁有 49%股權，故中化方勝為中國中化之30%控制公司（定義見上市規則）。因此， 中化方勝為本公司的關連人士。人力資源服務框架協議下的交易構成本公司於 上市規則第14A章下的持續關連交易。由於人力資源服務框架協議下持續關連 交易的年度 ...

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 18 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 中央经济工作会议明确化解风险，稳定楼市 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（25/12/6-25/12/12） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数下跌 0.3%、深证成指上升 0.8%、创业板指上升 2.7%、 沪深 300 下跌 0.1%、房地产（申万）下跌 2.6%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分 别为：三湘印象(+12.1%)、南都物业(+7.6%)、京基智农(+5.1%)、苏州高新 (+4.2%)、世联行(+2.9%)，涨跌幅后五的分别为：海泰发展(-18.2%)、ST 中迪 (-15.5%)、*ST 阳光(-11.7%)、中天服务(-11.0%)、*ST 荣控(-11.0%)。 联系人 板块表现： 数据跟踪： ...

Financing Overview - In November, the total bond financing in the real estate sector reached 62.04 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 28.5% [1][2][7] - The financing structure included 26.22 billion yuan from credit bonds (down 1.6% year-on-year, accounting for 42.3%), 6.42 billion yuan from overseas bonds (10.3%), and 29.4 billion yuan from ABS (up 36% year-on-year, accounting for 47.4%) [2][8] - From January to November 2025, total bond financing for real estate companies was 550.28 billion yuan, a 10.5% increase year-on-year [2][8] Credit Bond Issuance - Credit bond issuance saw a slight year-on-year decline, primarily from state-owned enterprises, with major issuers including China Merchants Shekou and Poly Developments, each issuing over 3 billion yuan [3][9] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 3.56 years, with a focus on 1-3 year and over 3-year bonds [3][9] ABS Issuance - ABS issuance totaled 29.4 billion yuan, showing significant growth, with class REITs being the largest category at 51.7% of the total [4][10] - Recent successful ABS projects include the "Huatai-Shanghai Zhongjian Plaza" and "CITIC Securities-Yuexiu Commercial" plans, which support the development of operational business models for real estate companies [4][10] Financing Costs - The average bond financing interest rate was 2.66%, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.07 percentage points, but an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [5][11] - The average interest rate for credit bonds was 2.23%, down 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, while overseas bonds had an average rate of 2.97% [5][11] Corporate Financing Dynamics - China Merchants Shekou had the highest issuance amount at 5.04 billion yuan, while Suzhou High-tech had the lowest financing cost at 1.73% [6][12] - Key companies such as China Jinmao, China Resources, and Poly Developments reported new financing activities, while Sunac and Times China had their overseas debt restructuring plans approved [6][12]

Core Viewpoint - Fangzheng Securities initiates coverage on China Jinmao (00817) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's advantages from its parent company Sinochem, which provides a lower financing cost, and its increasing project acquisitions in first-tier and core second-tier cities, suggesting potential sales growth driven by its strong product offerings [1][9] Group 1: Revenue and Profitability - As of the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 25.113 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, primarily due to growth in property development and Jinmao services, with land and property development contributing 20.041 billion yuan (up 17%) and Jinmao services contributing 1.783 billion yuan (up 20%) [2][10] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.123 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2% year-on-year, mainly due to a reduction in marketing and management expenses by 15% and 5% respectively compared to the same period last year [2][10] Group 2: Sales Performance and Land Acquisition - From January to November 2025, China Jinmao achieved a total sales amount of 100.7 billion yuan, surpassing the full-year sales of 98.3 billion yuan in 2024, marking it as one of the few real estate companies to experience positive sales growth [3][11] - The company recorded a total land acquisition amount of 33.9 billion yuan in the same period, compared to 18.7 billion yuan for the entire year of 2024, indicating an increased willingness to acquire land and confidence in its ability to manage quality residential projects [3][11] Group 3: REITs Market Expansion - On November 21, 2025, the company announced plans to list the Sanya Ritz-Carlton hotel with a base price of 2.265 billion yuan for asset securitization, aligning with the national policy that includes four-star and above hotel projects in the infrastructure REITs category [4][12] - This move is part of the company's strategy to "activate stock and optimize increment," aiming to replicate the success of the Changsha Meixi Lake project in asset securitization [4][12]

Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao (00817) is rated "Recommended" by Founder Securities, benefiting from its parent company Sinochem's financing advantages and increasing project acquisitions in first-tier and core second-tier cities, which may enhance sales performance through its strong product offerings [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 25.113 billion yuan, a 14% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in property development and Jinmao services [2] - The land and property development segment generated 20.041 billion yuan in revenue, up 17% year-on-year, while Jinmao services contributed 1.783 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% increase [2] - The company reported a non-net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.123 billion yuan, a 2% year-on-year increase, primarily due to a reduction in marketing and management expenses by 15% and 5%, respectively [2] Group 2: Sales and Land Acquisition - From January to November 2025, China Jinmao achieved a total sales amount of 100.7 billion yuan, surpassing the full-year sales of 98.3 billion yuan in 2024, marking it as one of the few real estate companies with positive sales growth [2] - The company recorded a total equity land acquisition amount of 33.9 billion yuan from January to November 2025, compared to 18.7 billion yuan for the entire year of 2024, indicating increased confidence in its ability to manage quality residential projects [2] Group 3: REITs Market Expansion - On November 21, 2025, the company announced the listing of the Sanya Ritz-Carlton hotel with a base price of 2.265 billion yuan, aimed at asset securitization [3] - In December 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission released guidelines that included four-star and above hotel projects in the infrastructure REITs sector, allowing for the issuance of REITs in this area [3] - This listing is part of the company's strategy to "activate stock and optimize increment," potentially setting a precedent for asset securitization following the successful REITs listing of Changsha Meixi Lake [3]

Company Performance Overview - In 2017, China Jinmao aimed to expand its presence from 23 cities to 40 cities and increase its signed sales from 50 billion to 200 billion by 2022 [2][19] - The sales revenue for China Jinmao reached 69.3 billion in 2017, marking an 85% year-on-year increase, ranking 29th in the "Top 200 Real Estate Companies in China" by CRIC [2][19] - From 2013 to 2021, the company saw continuous growth in revenue, gross profit, net profit attributable to shareholders, total assets, and total liabilities [3][22] Financial Metrics - Revenue increased from 20.719 billion in 2013 to 90.06 billion in 2021 [4][22] - Gross profit rose from 9.2 billion in 2013 to 16.758 billion in 2021 [5][22] - Total assets grew from 120.843 billion in 2013 to 44.3778 billion in the first half of 2025 [5][22] - Signed sales increased from 16.868 billion in 2013 to a peak of 235.6 billion in 2021 [5][22] Debt and Profitability Concerns - Total liabilities increased from 73.624 billion in 2013 to 32.3012 billion in the first half of 2025 [5][22] - Net profit attributable to shareholders peaked at 6.452 billion in 2019 but turned into a significant loss of 6.897 billion in 2023 [5][22] Executive Compensation Trends - The period from 2018 to 2021 saw high executive compensation, with significant performance bonuses and stock options contributing to overall income [6][30] - For instance, in 2019, CEO Li Congrui earned 18.404 million, with performance bonuses and special bonuses accounting for 73.5% of his total income [29][30] - Post-2021, executive compensation has significantly decreased, reverting to levels seen before 2013, with income dropping from millions to hundreds of thousands [31][32] Leadership Changes - In 2023, several key executives, including CFO Jiang Nan and CEO Li Congrui, resigned, leading to a new leadership team [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting opportunities in shopping center value reassessment and new housing tracks [4][22][39] Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector continues to weaken, with cumulative investment from January to November 2025 down by 15.9% year-on-year, and a significant drop of 30.3% in November alone [4][21] - The sales side is also under pressure, with cumulative sales area down by 7.8% year-on-year and a notable decline of 25.1% in November [22][35] - Funding sources are tightening, with total funding for real estate development down by 11.9% year-on-year, and a sharp decline of 32.5% in November [40] Investment Side Summary - Cumulative real estate development investment from January to November 2025 reached 785.91 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with November's single-month investment declining by 30.3% [5][21] - New construction starts fell by 20.5% year-on-year, with a 27.6% drop in November [19][21] - The report forecasts continued weakness in investment, with predictions for 2025-2026 showing construction starts down by 18.0% and total investment down by 14.2% [4][21] Sales Side Summary - Cumulative sales area for real estate from January to November 2025 was 790 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with November's sales area declining by 17.3% [22][35] - Cumulative sales revenue reached 7.5 trillion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with a 25.1% drop in November [22][35] - The average selling price of properties decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline of 9.5% in November [34][35] Funding Side Summary - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 850 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with November showing a 32.5% decline [40] - Domestic loans decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with a 10.4% drop in November [40] - Self-raised funds fell by 11.9% year-on-year, with a significant 30.7% decline in November [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and managing risks effectively, with policies tailored to local conditions [30][31]. - The report identifies two major opportunities: the rise of "good housing" policies and the potential for value reassessment in quality commercial real estate during a monetary easing cycle [3][30]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of December 6-12, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.423 million square meters, a decrease of 12.3% week-on-week [4][7]. - Year-on-year, December transactions in these cities are down 32%, with first and second-tier cities also experiencing a 32% decline [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.114 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week, and a year-on-year decline of 36.4% for December [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of December 6-12, 2025, 15 cities launched 980,000 square meters of new housing, with a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.84 [22][23]. - The total available residential area in these cities reached 90.05 million square meters, reflecting a 0.2% increase week-on-week [22]. Policy and News Tracking - The central economic work conference outlined strategies for stabilizing the real estate market, including controlling inventory and encouraging the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing projects [30][31]. - New policies in various cities, such as Qingdao's "good housing" standards and Beijing's expedited property registration processes, aim to enhance housing supply and streamline administrative procedures [30][33]. Company Dynamics - Sales data for November showed significant declines for many real estate companies, with Poly Developments reporting a 24.9% decrease in sales [36][38]. - Financing activities included new bond issuances and loans, with companies like Yuexiu Property securing a 2 billion RMB loan and New City Holdings issuing bonds worth 1.75 billion RMB [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around home loan interest subsidies has gained significant attention, with the potential for such policies to be implemented to alleviate the pressure on banks' net interest margins while benefiting fiscal budgets and homebuyers, creating a "triple win" scenario [1][8]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Effects - Various cities, including Hangzhou, Nanjing, Changchun, Yuncheng, and Wuhan, have initiated home loan interest subsidy policies since late 2023, aimed at reducing home purchase costs through fiscal subsidies [2][3]. - The policies have shown initial positive effects, with new home transaction volumes in Nanjing and Wuhan increasing by 17.5% and 18.7% respectively following the implementation of these subsidies [6][8]. Group 2: Operational Models - There are primarily two operational models for the subsidies: one provides fixed interest subsidies based on the loan amount, while the other offers subsidies as a percentage of the loan interest [3][4]. - For example, in Nanjing, different subsidy rates are applied based on the size of the purchased property, with rates of 2%, 1.5%, and 1% for properties under 90 square meters, between 90-120 square meters, and over 120 square meters, respectively [3][6]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The subsidy period typically ranges from 1 to 3 years, with disbursement methods including one-time payments or annual/monthly distributions [4][6]. - The potential savings for homebuyers can be significant; for instance, a loan of 2 million yuan at a 3.1% interest rate could see monthly payments reduced by approximately 1,048 yuan with a 1% subsidy, leading to annual interest savings of about 12,600 yuan [9][10]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market has reacted positively to the discussions around these policies, with significant increases in stock prices for real estate companies following the news [11][12]. - Analysts predict that the subsidy policy may be rolled out gradually, initially targeting new first-home loans in major cities, with an estimated annual funding requirement of 30 billion to 45 billion yuan for new loans [10][12].