证券研究报告 建筑材料 | 水泥 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 05 日 证券分析师 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 140,999 | 91,030 | 91,997 | 92,979 | 94,481 | | 同比增长率（%） | 6.80% | -35.44% | 1.06% | 1.07% | 1.62% | | 归母净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, but an increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability despite challenging market conditions [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 61.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.3% [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company recorded revenue of 20.01 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 3.4% to 1.94 billion yuan [1]. - The company's gross margin in Q3 was 22.44%, up 1.66 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a larger decline in coal and raw material prices compared to cement prices, as well as the release of high-margin overseas capacity [1]. Cost and Cash Flow - The overall expense ratio for the first three quarters was 10.66%, an increase of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, with specific changes in expense categories: sales (+0.64), management (+0.89), R&D (-0.49), and financial expenses (-0.29) [1]. - Operating cash flow for Q3 was 2.81 billion yuan, a decrease of 666 million yuan year-on-year [1]. Industry Outlook - The cement industry is currently at a cyclical low in profitability, with demand expected to remain stable but slightly declining due to weak infrastructure and housing demand [1]. - The industry is strengthening measures against overproduction, with a policy document released in July 2025 aimed at enhancing supply coordination, which may lead to a gradual recovery in profitability [1]. - As an industry leader, the company is expected to benefit from cost advantages that provide profit elasticity [1]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 90.8 billion yuan and 92.5 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.3% and +1.9% [2]. - Expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 8.81 billion yuan and 9.92 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 14.5% and 12.6% [2]. - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.0X and 12.4X [2].

证券研究报告：建筑材料 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-11-04 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -19% -16% -13% -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 2025-10 海螺水泥 建筑材料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 23.19 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）52.99 / 40.00 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）1,229 / 928 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 27.70 / 21.43 | | 资产负债率(%) | 21.3% | | 市盈率 | 15.88 | | 第一大股东 | 安徽海螺集团有限责任 | | 公司 | | 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 海螺水泥(600585) Q3 盈利小幅改善，期待反内卷释放盈利弹性 风险提示： 行业反内卷、限制超产政策不达预期，行业需求下滑超预期。 ...

公司点评 | 海螺水泥 需求承压导致 Q3 收入降幅扩大，但业绩仍彰显韧性 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 04 日 海螺水泥（600585.SH）2025 年三季报点评 事件：公司 2025 年前三季度实现营收 612.98 亿元，同比-10.06%；归母净利润 63.05 亿元，同比+21.28%；扣非归母净利润 59.37 亿元，同比+21.69%。其中 Q3 单季实现营 收 200.06 亿元，同比-11.42%；归母净利润 19.37 亿元，同比+3.41%；扣非归母净利润 17.39 亿元，同比+2.65%。 需求承压导致 Q3 收入降幅扩大，但利润仍同比增长，彰显龙头经营韧性。据数字水泥 网，25 年来水泥需求持续疲软，Q1、Q2、Q3 全国水泥产量分别同比-1.43%、-5.7%、 -6.8%，降幅逐季扩大；价格层面，25 年 1-9 月全国高标水泥市场均价为 372 元/吨，同 比-0.5%，8 月份水泥价格创近年来新低的 341 元/吨。行业需求承压、价格下行的背景下， 公司经营压力增大，分季度看，25 年 Q1、Q2、Q3 公司营收分别为 190.51、222.40、 200.06 ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 海螺水泥（600585） 证券研究报告 盈利阶段性承压，四季度价格有望好转 公司三季度实现归母净利润 19.4 亿元，同比增长 3.4% 公司发布三季报，前三季度实现营业收入/归母净利润 613/63 亿元，同比 -10.1%/+21.3%，扣非归母净利润 59.4 亿元，同比+21.7%，其中三季度实现 营业收入/归母净利润 200.1/19.4 亿元，同比-11.4%/+3.4%，扣非归母净利 润 17.4 亿元，同比+2.7%。 Q3 受价格下降拖累，预计四季度盈利有望修复 公司三季度收入环比下降 10%，我们预计环比走弱主要系水泥价格下降拖 累，三季度传统淡季叠加市场资金短缺因素，水泥需求仍然承压，华东地 区水泥平均出货率 49%，环比下滑 2pct，同比下滑 6pct，同时受部分地区 供给端错峰生产执行效果不佳影响，供需矛盾进一步凸显，根据数字水泥 网，三季度华东地区水泥均价约 330 元/吨，环比下降 41 元/吨，同比下降 25 元/吨，叠加煤炭价格环比有所上涨，使得盈利端进一步承压。但进入 9 月份，随着天气因素缓解，叠加价格已基本触底，多地企业处于微利或亏 损状态，提 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The construction materials industry is currently at a cyclical bottom in terms of profitability, with leading companies in various segments performing in line with expectations. For instance, China Jushi in the fiberglass sector has seen a significant year-on-year improvement in profitability, while companies like Rabbit Baby have also reported substantial profit improvements due to investment income. Other leading companies such as Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Qibin Group, and Jianlang Hardware are also showing signs of bottoming out in their fundamentals. It is anticipated that stock prices may break out of the bottom range under the influence of policy catalysts and market style shifts [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Cement - Demand for cement has shown a slight month-on-month improvement, primarily due to infrastructure projects and better weather conditions, although year-on-year demand remains down. The overall demand is still in a weak recovery phase, influenced by weather disruptions and the pace of demand release. In September 2025, the monthly cement production was 154 million tons, down 8.6% year-on-year [5][10] Glass - The glass industry is experiencing a continuous decline in demand due to the impact of real estate. Short-term demand during the traditional peak season has shown limited improvement, and inventory levels among intermediaries remain relatively high. The supply-demand imbalance persists, with limited improvement in downstream terminal demand. The industry is expected to face increased environmental requirements and costs, accelerating the pace of cold repairs [5][17] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is witnessing a price recovery, with price increases of 5%-10% reported. The demand for electronic yarns is driven by the AI industry, leading to a significant increase in both volume and price. The demand is expected to continue growing alongside AI developments [6] Consumer Building Materials - The profitability of the consumer building materials sector has reached a bottom, with prices having no further downward space after years of competition. The sector is strongly advocating for price increases and profitability improvements, with several categories like waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum boards issuing price increase notices this year. A recovery in profitability is anticipated for leading companies in the second half of the year [6] Recent Company Announcements - Conch Cement reported Q3 revenue of 20 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 3.4% year-on-year to 1.94 billion yuan, benefiting from cost reductions and improved gross margins. Q3 revenue for Qibin Group was 4.39 billion yuan, up 18.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 20 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [19][20][22]

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00914 | 說明 | H股 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,299,600,000 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,299,600,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,299,600,000 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,29 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the short-selling ratios and amounts for several major companies, indicating significant bearish sentiment in the market, particularly for Tencent Holdings and JD.com [1][2]. Short-Selling Ratios - Tencent Holdings-R (80700) and JD.com-SWR (89618) both have a short-selling ratio of 100.00%, indicating complete bearish positions [2]. - SenseTime-WR (80020) follows with a short-selling ratio of 87.56% [1][2]. Short-Selling Amounts - Alibaba-SW (09988) leads in short-selling amount with 1.807 billion, followed by BYD Company (01211) at 1.358 billion, and Tencent Holdings (00700) at 0.977 billion [1][2]. - The short-selling amounts for these companies suggest a high level of investor concern regarding their future performance [1][2]. Deviation Values - Tencent Holdings-R (80700) has the highest deviation value at 51.02%, followed closely by JD.com-SWR (89618) at 50.01% [1][2]. - The deviation values indicate a significant difference between current short-selling ratios and their historical averages, suggesting heightened market volatility for these stocks [1][2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 29.39 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 23.19 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 61.298 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 10.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.305 billion CNY, an increase of 21.28% year-on-year [2][3]. - The decline in revenue in Q3 2025 was attributed to weakened market demand and low national cement prices, with a year-on-year revenue drop of 11.42% [2]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved year-on-year due to price increases in 2024 and a decrease in energy costs, although Q3 saw a decline in gross margin due to rising coal prices [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 24.30%, up 4.76 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 22.44%, down 4.75 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was approximately 11.1 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.27% [3]. Future Outlook - The current national cement prices are at a five-year low, but there is potential for price support in Q4 due to industry self-discipline and staggered production [4]. - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 91.269 billion CNY, 93.170 billion CNY, and 95.273 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.26%, 2.08%, and 2.26% respectively [4]. Financial Projections - The net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to be 8.818 billion CNY, 9.447 billion CNY, and 9.868 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.58%, 7.13%, and 4.46% respectively [4].

机构：中金公司 研究员：Yan CHEN/Hanxiao WU four expense items fell 13% YoY to Rmb2.12bn, and its expense ratio dropped 0.1ppt YoY to 10.6%. We believe that the decline in cement sales volume might be much smaller than the decline in expenses, and that the firm's expenses per tonne declined YoY in 3Q25. 4) Capex increased marginally. In 1-3Q25, cumulative net operating cash flow rose 7% YoY to Rmb11.1bn, cumulative capex reached Rmb6.5bn, and free cash flow remained abundant at Rmb4.6bn. Trends to watch We suggest keep ...