Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's Hang Seng Technology Index achieved a remarkable annual increase of 23.45% in 2025, marking its best performance since 2020, with 22 out of 30 constituent stocks rising [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Among the 30 constituent stocks, notable performers included Hua Hong Semiconductor, which surged by 243.19%, Horizon Robotics with a rise of 140.56%, and SMIC increasing by 124.69% [1] - Other significant gainers were JD Health at 97.51%, Alibaba-W at 77.50%, Xpeng Motors-W at 70.10%, Baidu Group-SW at 59.01%, and Tencent Music-SW at 58.44% [1][2] Group 2: Investment Preferences - The first tier of investment preference is in semiconductor manufacturing (Hua Hong, SMIC) and core AI chips (Horizon Robotics), reflecting a strong focus on hard technology and domestic substitution logic [1] - The second tier includes growth sectors such as smart electric vehicles (Xpeng, Li Auto), AI applications (Baidu, SenseTime), and digital health (JD Health), which benefit from industry trends but still face competitive and profitability uncertainties [1] - The third tier consists of value recovery in platform internet giants (Alibaba, Tencent) and mature applications (NetEase, Kuaishou, Tencent Music), with gains primarily driven by profit realization and value reassessment through dividends and buybacks, categorized as "high-quality mature assets" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a mixed performance in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index achieving a year-to-date increase of 27.77%, making it the second-best performer globally after the Shenzhen Composite Index, which rose by 30% [5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,630.54 points, down 224.06 points or 0.87% on the last trading day of the year [1]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,514.98 points, down 62.40 points or 1.12% [3]. - In 2025, the Hang Seng Index recorded a cumulative increase of 27.77%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index also saw a two-year consecutive rise with a 23.45% increase [5]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The gold and precious metals sector showed remarkable performance, with Zhenfeng Gold (HK01815) increasing over 1200% and Lingbao Gold (HK03330) rising over 570% throughout the year [5]. - The semiconductor sector also performed well, with Huahong Semiconductor (HK01347) up over 240% and SMIC (HK00981) up over 120% [5]. - The brokerage sector saw Guotai Junan International increase by over 140% [5]. - The biopharmaceutical sector was active, with Yaojie Ankang rising over 770% [5]. - Conversely, the real estate and education sectors underperformed due to industry adjustments [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Outlook - The market showed a subdued performance on the last trading day due to holiday factors, with mixed results among tech stocks and a notable decline in automotive stocks [7]. - In 2025, the Hong Kong market is expected to see a significant influx of southbound capital, with net purchases exceeding 1.4 trillion HKD, and cumulative net purchases surpassing 5 trillion HKD [7]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the industry anticipates a favorable environment for global liquidity, with potential improvements in the profitability of Hong Kong-listed companies driven by policies promoting technological innovation and domestic demand [9].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market closed 2025 with the Hang Seng Index rising by 27.77%, marking its best annual performance since 2017 [1] - Among the constituents of the Hang Seng Index, China Hongqiao surged by 203.72%, leading the gains, followed by Zijin Mining at 162.29%, and SMIC at 124.69% [1][2] Group 1: Performance Highlights - China Hongqiao's stock price reached 32.620 with a year-to-date increase of 203.72% [2] - Zijin Mining's stock price was 35.660, reflecting a year-to-date rise of 162.29% [2] - SMIC's stock price stood at 71.450, with a year-to-date increase of 124.69% [2] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical increased by 113.33% year-to-date, with a stock price of 36.080 [2] - Pop Mart's stock price was 37.700, showing a year-to-date rise of 111.46% [2] - Innovent Biologics saw a year-to-date increase of 108.33%, with a stock price of 76.250 [2] - Chow Tai Fook's stock price was 12.390, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 100.16% [2] - China Biologic Products had a stock price of 6.180, with a year-to-date rise of 98.71% [2] - JD Health's stock price was 55.500, showing a year-to-date increase of 97.51% [2] - China Life's stock price stood at 27.380, with a year-to-date increase of 96.60% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The performance of the top stocks reflects four main themes: cyclical resources, hard technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and niche consumption [1] - Stocks like China Hongqiao and Zijin Mining benefited from global inflation and industrial demand [1] - SMIC represents the core of domestic substitution and technological self-reliance [1] - Companies like Hansoh and Innovent are being valued for genuine innovation and international pricing [1] - Niche consumption sectors, represented by Pop Mart, Chow Tai Fook, and JD Health, demonstrate strong vitality even in a weak recovery environment [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,855, down 0.86% for the day but up 28.89% year-to-date[1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1.74% to 5,578, with a year-to-date increase of 24.85%[1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.12% to 8,991, with a year-to-date rise of 23.34%[1] Sector Performance - Baidu's stock surged nearly 9% due to advancements in AI and smart cloud business, with significant growth in its self-developed AI chip and smart driving orders[7] - The semiconductor sector saw strong gains, with InnoTek rising over 15% and SMIC up more than 4% following Nvidia's announcement of partnerships for a new power architecture[7] - Robotics stocks were active, with Yujing Technology up over 13% and Sanhua Intelligent Control up over 12%, supported by a significant increase in industrial robot production[7] Oil and Entertainment - Oil stocks continued to perform well, with CNOOC rising nearly 4% as international oil prices increased due to geopolitical tensions[7] - The entertainment sector saw a boost, with Emperor Culture Industries rising nearly 9% as the 2025 New Year box office surpassed 5.3 billion yuan, a near eight-year high[7] Economic Indicators - The WTI crude oil price surpassed $58 per barrel, while Brent crude approached $62 per barrel, driven by rising geopolitical risks[7] - The US Federal Reserve indicated potential future interest rate cuts if inflation continues to decline, as noted in the December meeting minutes[11]

Core Viewpoint - The AI industry is expected to transition from divergence to consensus in performance trends by 2025, with 2026 anticipated to be a significant year for domestic hard technology advancements [2] Group 1: AI Industry Trends - The AI large model's reasoning capabilities are continuously iterating, forming a closed loop with edge applications, while the demand for computing and storage hardware remains high [1] - The electronic industry's downturn since 2021 is showing signs of recovery, with a notable performance boost driven by AI innovations [2] - The global capital expenditure of the eight major cloud service providers (CSPs) is projected to grow by 40% to over $600 billion by 2026, with AI server shipments expected to increase by 20.9% [3] Group 2: Computing and Storage - Domestic chip manufacturers are actively updating their products, with Huawei planning to launch the Ascend 950PR in Q1 2026 and the Atlas 950 SuperPoD in Q4 2026 [4] - The demand for DRAM is expected to increase by 26% year-on-year in 2026, driven by AI needs, while NAND shortages are anticipated to persist, with prices rising over 40% from September to December 2025 [4] Group 3: Power and Connectivity - The optimization of data transfer and communication within servers is becoming a crucial breakthrough for enhancing computing power, with the global high-speed interconnect chip market expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.2% from 2024 to 2030 [5] - The power consumption of data center chips is projected to increase significantly, necessitating advancements in power supply architectures towards HVDC solutions [6] Group 4: AI Edge Applications - The evolution of AI from a tool to an autonomous agent capable of understanding user intent is reshaping human-computer interaction, with various consumer electronics expected to integrate these capabilities [7] - Major tech companies are expected to drive market sentiment and investment consensus through continuous exploration and innovation in AI hardware [7] Group 5: Semiconductor Industry - China's semiconductor sales are projected to account for 28% of the global market by 2024, but the domestic supply ratio remains low at 4.5% [8] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a recovery phase, with significant growth expected in AI data centers and applications like autonomous driving and humanoid robots [8] Group 6: Key Companies to Watch - Companies such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, Industrial Fulian, and Cambrian are highlighted as key players in the semiconductor and AI sectors [9]

Group 1 - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (71.90%), Gree Power Environmental (69.96%), and Da Zhong Public Utilities (68.75%) [1][2] - The companies with the largest increase in holding amounts over the last five trading days are SMIC (+1.108 billion), China Merchants Bank (+1.056 billion), and Hong Kong Exchanges (+0.792 billion) [1][2] - The companies with the largest decrease in holding amounts over the last five trading days are China Mobile (-3.231 billion), Tencent Holdings (-1.109 billion), and Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (-0.469 billion) [1][4] Group 2 - The latest holding ratios for the top 20 companies in Hong Kong Stock Connect show that China Telecom has 9.979 billion shares, Gree Power Environmental has 0.283 billion shares, and Da Zhong Public Utilities has 0.367 billion shares [2] - The top 10 companies with the largest increase in holdings over the last five trading days include Xiaomi Group (+0.633 billion) and Alibaba Group (+0.530 billion) [2] - The top 10 companies with the largest decrease in holdings over the last five trading days include China Unicom (-0.445 billion) and XinDa Biologics (-0.432 billion) [4]

Group 1: Automotive Industry - Chinese automotive manufacturers are expected to surpass Japanese manufacturers in global new car sales by 2025, with an estimated 17% year-on-year growth in 2023, reaching approximately 27 million vehicles sold [2] - Japan's automotive sales are projected to remain flat compared to last year, slightly below 25 million vehicles, indicating a significant shift in market leadership [2] - In 2023, China became the world's largest automotive exporter with 4.91 million vehicles exported, marking a pivotal moment in the global automotive landscape [2][3] - The rise of Chinese domestic brands is attributed to increased recognition both domestically and internationally, alongside intense competition within the Chinese automotive industry [2] Group 2: Aviation Industry - 吉祥航空 and 春秋航空 announced orders for a total of 55 Airbus A320 series aircraft, valued at approximately $8.2 billion, to be delivered between 2028 and 2032 [4] - The orders are seen as a coordinated purchase strategy to secure better pricing, reflecting a trend in the aviation sector towards bulk purchasing [4] - The domestic aviation market is characterized by high passenger load factors but low ticket prices, aligning with the operational strategies of 吉祥航空 and 春秋航空 [5] Group 3: AI Industry - Meta has acquired AI startup Manus for several billion dollars, marking its third-largest acquisition to date [6] - Manus focuses on practical AI applications, providing tools for tasks such as resume screening and travel planning, which enhances user experience in AI applications [6][7] - The acquisition is expected to bolster Meta's capabilities in AI product applications, an area where it has previously been less competitive [7] Group 4: Robotics Industry - 宇树科技 opened its first offline store in Beijing, allowing customers to experience and purchase robotic products directly [8] - The store aims to reduce consumer apprehension towards complex technology by providing hands-on experiences and facilitating immediate purchases [8][9] - The offline presence is part of a broader strategy to explore various business models, including rentals and experiences, as the robotics market matures [9] Group 5: Semiconductor Industry - 中芯国际 plans to acquire 49% of 中芯北方 for approximately 40.6 billion yuan, aiming to enhance asset quality and business synergy [12] - The acquisition reflects a trend of consolidation within the Chinese semiconductor industry, focusing on high-quality development rather than mere scale [12][13] - Full control over 中芯北方 is expected to stabilize cash flow and improve operational efficiency for 中芯国际 [12] Group 6: Precious Metals Market - Silver prices experienced a significant intraday drop of 16%, while gold and palladium also saw notable declines, despite strong annual performance [14][15] - The fluctuations in precious metal prices are attributed to speculative trading in the Chinese futures market, impacting global prices [14] - Industrial demand has driven silver prices up throughout the year, with both gold and silver expected to achieve their best annual performance since 1979 [15]

长江商报记者注意到，中芯北方是中芯国际旗下重要的12英寸晶圆代工厂。在当前资本市场为并购重组提供良好 环境以及国家大力支持半导体行业发展的背景下，通过本次重组，中芯国际将持有中芯北方100%股权，进而提高 上市公司资产质量、增强业务上的协同性。 同日，中芯国际披露另一家重要子公司增资扩股计划，包括中芯控股、国家集成电路基金三期、上海集成电路基 金二期等在内的投资方将向中芯南方集成电路制造有限公司（以下简称"中芯南方"）增资77.78亿美元，以降低中 芯南方的资产负债率，构建集团更为稳健的财务结构。 拟收购中芯北方剩余49%股权 中芯国际重组中芯北方取得新进展。 长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 徐佳 作为中国大陆集成电路制造领军企业，中芯国际（688981.SH、00981.HK）持续推进旗下核心业务整合与财务结 构优化。 12月29日晚间，中芯国际披露重组草案。公司拟作价406亿元，向国家集成电路基金等5名交易对手方购买中芯北 方集成电路制造（北京）有限公司（以下简称"中芯北方"）49%股权。 截至2025年8月末，中芯北方资产总额452.83亿元，负债总额34.75亿元，归母净资产418.08亿元。 12月2 ...

Core Insights - Strong One Co., Ltd. (688809.SH) officially listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, becoming the 600th company, marking a significant milestone in the board's growth since its inception in 2019 [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board has established itself as a key platform for empowering hard-tech enterprises, reflecting China's commitment to innovation-driven development and the cultivation of new productive forces [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board achieved a total operating revenue of 1,105.01 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [2] - Net profit reached 49.27 billion yuan, with an 8.9% year-on-year increase, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 31.97 billion yuan, up 5.5% [2] - R&D investment totaled 119.75 billion yuan, 2.4 times the net profit, with a median R&D intensity of 12.4%, indicating a strong focus on technological innovation [2] Industry Development - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board has formed a distinctive hard-tech industry cluster, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which includes over 100 companies, accounting for about 60% of the total in the A-share market [3] - Revenue in the integrated circuit industry grew by 25% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 67% [3] - The biopharmaceutical sector saw the approval of nine Class 1 new drugs and potential total transaction amounts exceeding 13 billion USD from 16 outbound BD deals, enhancing industry competitiveness [3] Future Outlook - The emergence of the 600th company is seen as both a summary of past achievements and a starting point for future development [3] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board aims to deepen reforms and enhance support for hard-tech enterprises, fostering the growth of high-quality tech companies through capital [3] - The board is expected to attract and cultivate more world-class technology enterprises, leading to the emergence of more innovative company stars in the future [3]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector, particularly SMIC, is experiencing heightened attention due to a market recovery driven by emerging applications like AI, with SMIC's stock showing significant volatility around key technical levels [1][5]. Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels - SMIC's stock price is at a critical juncture, having recovered above the 10-day moving average (approximately 66.64 CNY) and challenging the 30-day moving average (approximately 69.13 CNY) [2]. - Key support levels are identified at 67.2 CNY (first support) and 64.3 CNY (second support), while the first resistance level is at 74.1 CNY, with a potential target of 77.8 CNY if the resistance is breached [2]. Market Sentiment Divergence - Investor sentiment is divided, with bullish views focusing on positive industry trends and bearish perspectives emphasizing technical resistance and micro challenges [5]. - Bullish investors believe that if SMIC can maintain its technical position, it may challenge higher price levels, potentially reaching 100 CNY, despite some institutions lowering short-term profit forecasts [5]. - Cautious investors view the stability above the 30-day moving average as crucial, with some suggesting a possible pullback to around 60 CNY if the stock fails to show a daily divergence signal [5]. Derivative Products for Volatility Management - In light of expected price fluctuations around key levels, warrants and bull/bear certificates are recommended as flexible tools for expressing directional views [6]. - Recent performance of related bullish derivative products has been strong, with notable gains observed in UBS and HSBC bull certificates following SMIC's stock rise [7][8]. Current Derivative Product Recommendations - For bullish investors, recommended products include: - UBS call warrant (20292) with a strike price of 73.85 CNY, noted for its low premium and implied volatility [10]. - Bank of China call warrant (20316) also at 73.85 CNY, offering a higher leverage ratio [10]. - For bearish investors, options include: - Barclays put warrant (21469) and Bank of China put warrant (21097) with strike prices close to the current stock price, providing lower premiums and higher leverage [19].