智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，石药集团(01093)最新的指引，将2025至27年的总收入预测 分别下调6.2%、4.8%及2.6%。根据最新指引和年度至今的趋势，该行下降集团的毛利率和销售开支比 率预测，并提高了研发开支比率预测，将2025年至26年的经常性纯利预测分别下调10%和6%，并上调 2027年预测2%，而2028至30年的纯利预测则因许可收入的贡献而上调。该行将集团目标价由9.6港元升 至11港元，续予"增持"评级。 ...

摩根士丹利发表研报指，石药集团最新指引将2025至27年的总收入预测分别下调6.2%、4.8%及2.6%。 根据最新指引和年度至今的趋势，该行下降集团的毛利率和销售开支比率预测，并提高了研发开支比率 预测，将2025年至26年的经常性纯利预测分别下调10%和6%，并上调2027年预测2%，而2028至30年的 纯利预测则因许可收入的贡献而上调。该行将集团目标价由9.6港元上调至11港元，维持"增持"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International raises the target price for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) to HKD 9.3 while maintaining a "Neutral" rating, reflecting adjustments in revenue forecasts due to sales pressures on core products [1] Financial Performance - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered to account for ongoing sales pressures on core products, although the increase in high-margin BD revenue and continuous cost reduction efforts are expected to improve the expense ratio [1] - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.14 per share, with an expected full-year dividend of no less than HKD 0.28 per share, compared to HKD 0.26 per share last year [1] Market Outlook - The company’s prescription drug business faced continued pressure in Q2, but there may be opportunities for sequential improvement in the second half of the year [1] - Despite ongoing challenges from centralized procurement and hospital-end medical insurance fees, there is optimism for a recovery in performance in the second half of 2026-2027, driven by the resolution of these pressures and the positive impact of significant BD upfront payments [1]

交银国际发布研报称，上调石药集团(01093)目标价至9.3港元,维持"中性"评级。该行下调2025-2026年收 入预测以反映核心品种销售面临的压力，但高利润率的BD收入占比提升及持续的降本增效努力可望进 一步改善费用率。将DCF估价模型滚动至2026年。 该行表示,该公司第二季度成药业务持续承压，下半年或有环比改善机会。公司宣布中期股息0.14港元/ 股，全年股利预计不低于0.28港元/股(对照去年0.26港元/股)。公司的存量大单品在第二季度持续受到集 采、院端医保费等压力，但看好下半年及2026-2027年业绩复苏的机会，考虑到上述影响即将出清、重 磅BD首付款对业绩的增厚、以及原料药/功能性食品业务的反弹。因此上调目标价，认为当前公司估值 合理，正向催化剂预期与风险已基本反映在股价中。 ...

Group 1 - The core business of the company is the production of finished drugs and raw materials, with a focus on innovative drugs targeting various therapeutic areas such as neurological diseases, oncology, infections, and cardiovascular diseases [1] - As of mid-2025, the company reported total revenue of 13.273 billion and a net profit of 2.548 billion [1] - The company has an international R&D team dedicated to the discovery, research, and development of small molecule targeted drugs, nanomedicines, monoclonal antibodies, bispecific antibodies, antibody-drug conjugates, and biopharmaceuticals in the immunology field [1] Group 2 - On August 25, Zhuhai International maintained a buy rating for the company, raising the target price to 12.11 HKD [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 9.30, indicating a potential downside of 11.6% from the current closing price of HKD 10.51 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face continued pressure in Q2 2025 due to centralized procurement and hospital-level medical insurance cost control, but there are optimistic prospects for a recovery in the second half of 2025 and in 2026-2027 as these pressures are expected to ease [2][7]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing research and business development (BD) efforts, which are anticipated to contribute positively to performance, alongside a rebound in the raw materials and functional foods business [2][7]. - The target price has been adjusted upwards to reflect the anticipated recovery and the reasonable current valuation, with positive catalysts and risks already factored into the stock price [2][7]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue forecasts for 2025 have been revised down by 1.3% to RMB 29,649 million, with further reductions for 2026 and 2027 [6][14]. - The gross profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 20,161 million, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [6][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is now expected to be RMB 5,568 million, an increase of 8.4% from prior forecasts [6][14]. Business Segment Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's pharmaceutical business continued to face challenges, with a 24% year-on-year decline in revenue across almost all therapeutic areas [7]. - The raw materials and functional foods segments showed resilience, with revenues increasing by 12% and 8% year-on-year, respectively [7]. - Management anticipates a revenue growth of over 5% in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, driven by market expansion and new product launches [7]. Long-term Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on innovative products, particularly in the oncology space, with several key trials expected to progress by the end of the year [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of BD transactions, with two significant deals expected to close by year-end, which could enhance revenue streams [7]. - The company is actively exploring opportunities in various high-potential areas, including peptide long-acting formulations and mRNA vaccines, which are expected to contribute to future revenue and cash flow [7].

格隆汇新股 20亿估值，石药集团投出一家创新药IPO，2亿过敏性鼻炎患者在等待 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the earnings forecast for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) for 2025 and 2026 largely unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 20.5x for 2025 and 17.3x for 2026. The target price is raised by 51.2% to HKD 13.00, reflecting an upside potential of 23.7% from the current stock price [1]. Group 1 - The company's 1H25 performance is in line with expectations, reporting revenue of CNY 13.273 billion, a year-on-year decline of 18.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 2.548 billion, down 15.6% [2]. - The prescription drug business continues to face pressure, with 2Q25 prescription drug revenue at CNY 4.747 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.7%. The company anticipates improvement in 2H25 [3]. Group 2 - The company has established eight innovative R&D platforms and is expected to continue monetizing external licensing agreements. Notable agreements include ROR1 ADC with a maximum potential milestone of USD 1.225 billion, and AZ strategic cooperation with a maximum potential milestone of USD 5.22 billion [4]. - R&D investment is increasing, with 2Q25 R&D expenses at CNY 1.38 billion, accounting for 29.1% of prescription drug revenue, which is a year-on-year increase of 6.2 percentage points. The company is making progress in clinical trials for its key product SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) [5].

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the earnings forecast for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price increase of 51.2% to HKD 13.00, indicating a potential upside of 23.7% from the current stock price [1] Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 performance is in line with expectations, reporting revenue of CNY 13.273 billion, a year-on-year decline of 18.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 2.548 billion, down 15.6% [2] Business Segment Analysis - The traditional pharmaceutical business continues to face pressure, with 2Q25 revenue of CNY 4.747 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 13.7%. The decline is attributed to medical insurance cost control and inventory management [3] - Specific revenue breakdown includes: - Neurology: CNY 1.847 billion (YoY -27.0%) - Oncology: CNY 0.498 billion (YoY -53.5%) - Anti-infection: CNY 0.735 billion (YoY -23.2%) - Cardiovascular: CNY 0.457 billion (YoY -10.2%) - Respiratory: CNY 0.250 billion (YoY -13.5%) - Metabolism: CNY 0.229 billion (YoY -31.3%) - Other: CNY 0.374 billion (YoY +25.1%) - Licensing revenue: CNY 0.357 billion [3] Innovation and R&D - The company has established eight innovative R&D platforms and is expected to continue monetizing external licensing agreements. Notable agreements include ROR1 ADC and irinotecan liposome, with potential milestone payments totaling up to USD 1.225 billion [4] - R&D expenditure in 2Q25 reached CNY 1.38 billion, accounting for 29.1% of traditional pharmaceutical revenue, indicating a year-on-year increase of 6.2 percentage points. The company anticipates continued innovation output [5] - The clinical progress of the key product SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) is on track, with multiple clinical trials ongoing and a BLA expected in 2026 [5]

Summary of CSPC Pharma Earnings Review and Industry Insights Company Overview - **Company**: CSPC Pharma (1093.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$121.1 billion / $15.5 billion - **Industry**: China Pharma, Biotech & Medtech Key Financial Highlights - **2Q Revenue**: Rmb 6.3 billion, down 14% year-over-year (y/y) - **Finished Drug Sales**: Rmb 4.4 billion, down 27% y/y, below expectations (GSe Rmb 5.4 billion) [1] - **CNS Drug Sales**: Declined by 27% y/y due to stricter regulatory monitoring, particularly affecting capsule sales [1] - **Oncology Sales**: Decreased by 54% y/y, impacted by value-based pricing (VBP) for Duomeisu / Jinyouli [1] - **Earnings**: Rmb 1.1 billion, down 24% y/y or 46% y/y excluding business development (BD) [1] - **R&D Expenses**: Rmb 1.4 billion, up 1% y/y; SG&A savings of 26% y/y partially offset the earnings decline [1] Management Guidance - **Sales Growth Resumption**: Expected in 2H25, with finished drug sales projected to grow by over 5% half-on-half (h/h) [1] - **Collaboration Income**: Potential for higher collaboration income for dividend payouts [1] Business Development (BD) Insights - **BD Progress**: Company is on track with three major BD deals expected in 2025, with one already delivered (platform collaboration with AZ) [3] - **SYS6010 (EGFR ADC)**: Smooth overseas development progress, with FDA approval for including China patients in trials [3][7] Metabolism Franchise Opportunities - **Licensing Deals**: Recent licensing-out deal of oral GLP-1 to Madrigal highlights potential deal-making opportunities [2] - **Pipeline Assets**: Includes oral small molecules for weight loss and muscle enhancement, monthly-dose formulations, and siRNA drugs [2] Earnings Estimates and Price Target - **Revised Earnings Estimates**: Decreased by 5.1% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 9.9% for 2027 to reflect lower expectations on finished drug sales [8] - **12-Month Price Target**: Increased to HK$11.28 from HK$10.55, indicating a potential upside of 7.4% from the current price of HK$10.51 [10] Valuation Methodology - **SOTP Valuation**: - DCF-based valuation for NBP: HK$7.2 billion - New product wave: HK$69.3 billion - Legacy portfolio and generics: HK$37.0 billion - API business: HK$4.0 billion [9] Risks and Considerations - **Key Downside Risks**: - Earlier-than-expected VBP for NBP - Slower-than-expected ramp-up of new products - Failure of major R&D projects - Greater-than-expected price cut impacts on generic drug sales [9] Conclusion CSPC Pharma is navigating a challenging environment with declining sales in key segments but is positioned for potential recovery in the latter half of 2025. The company’s focus on business development and innovative product pipelines may provide avenues for growth despite current headwinds.