Sales Performance Overview - In the first eight months of 2025, the top 20 real estate companies in Changsha achieved a total sales revenue of 26.456 billion yuan, with a total sales area of 1.8016 million square meters [2][3] - The sales threshold for the top 10 companies was 1.12 billion yuan and 77,600 square meters, while for the top 20 it was 465 million yuan and 37,400 square meters [2] Top Companies by Sales Revenue - China Resources Land ranked first in sales revenue with 3.071 billion yuan, followed by China Merchants Shekou with 2.845 billion yuan, and China State Construction with 2.765 billion yuan [3][4] - In terms of sales area, China State Construction led with 203,400 square meters, followed by China Merchants Shekou with 199,400 square meters, and China Resources Land with 172,200 square meters [3] Project Sales Rankings - The top 10 projects in Changsha for sales revenue totaled 10.716 billion yuan, with the threshold for the top 10 set at 752 million yuan [6] - The project "Changsha Ruifu" topped the sales revenue chart with 1.943 billion yuan, followed by "Changsha Jianfa Guanyun" at 1.200 billion yuan, and "Yunda Conference Bay" at 1.077 billion yuan [6] - For sales area, "Changsha Ruifu" also led with 94,800 square meters, followed by "Zhongjian Taoli Jiu Zhang" with 79,500 square meters, and "Changsha Runfu" with 75,900 square meters [7]

Core Viewpoint - Evergrande Property's stock resumed trading on September 12, following a notice received from the liquidators of China Evergrande Group and CEG Holdings regarding potential share sales [1] Group 1 - On September 10, Evergrande Property received a communication from the liquidators seeking opportunities to sell shares held by China Evergrande and CEG Holdings [1] - Market rumors suggest that the liquidators have received non-binding acquisition intentions for Evergrande Property, with bidders including China Overseas Group and a subsidiary of China Resources Group [1] - A representative from China Resources Land stated that the rumors regarding the acquisition are not true [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][6][57] Core Viewpoints - Since September 2024, the central government has emphasized "stabilizing the real estate market and stock market," which is crucial for boosting social expectations and facilitating domestic demand circulation [5][6] - The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5][6] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.8%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.4% during the week [9] - The real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 1.5% [9] - Notable stock performances included Shoukai Co. (+32.0%) and Ningbo Fuda (+12.7%), while *ST Nanzhi fell by 22.6% [9] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of August 30 to September 5, 2025, 42 key cities saw new housing transactions totaling 1.7 million square meters, a decrease of 15.3% week-on-week and 9.4% year-on-year [15] - For August 2025, the total new housing transactions in these cities reached 7.3 million square meters, down 4.1% month-on-month and 18.8% year-on-year [18] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, 21 key cities recorded second-hand housing transactions of 171,000 square meters, a decrease of 9.1% week-on-week but an increase of 10.2% year-on-year [29] - For August 2025, total second-hand housing transactions in these cities were 793,000 square meters, down 7.2% month-on-month but up 0.9% year-on-year [34] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a meeting emphasizing high-level legislation to promote high-quality development in housing and urban construction [45] - Shanghai initiated a new round of adjustments to existing mortgage rates, allowing second-home buyers to apply for a rate reduction to the first-home level [45] - In Shenzhen, policies were optimized to lower purchasing thresholds and mortgage costs for residents and enterprises [45] Company Announcements - In August 2025, major real estate companies reported varying sales figures: China Overseas Development at 18.33 billion yuan (down 0.7% year-on-year), and Greentown China at 10.6 billion yuan (up 27.7% year-on-year) [48] - Poly Developments recently acquired two projects in Lanzhou and Sanya, with a total payment of 1.612 billion yuan [48]

Group 1 - China Resources Land has officially won the bid for the Zhaomatang Waterfront Park Phase I and the 32-01, 36-02 plot landscape project, indicating a more stable development phase for Nanda Smart City [1] - The project will anchor around a 100,000 square meter waterfront park, linking with the Central Urban Land [3] - The company emphasizes ecological restoration, operational thinking, and content empowerment in its park construction, aiming to unify ecological, living, and urban values [4] Group 2 - In the Haitang River Park project in Sanya, China Resources Land transformed ecological disadvantages into a magnificent public ecological space through precise soil remediation and artistic landscape design [5] - The Shenzhen Dashahu Ecological Corridor project showcases forward-looking planning, dividing a 13.7-kilometer shoreline into three sections, integrating cultural spaces like bookstores and tea houses [5] - The Chengdu Dong'an Lake Sports Park has successfully transitioned from a venue for the 31st Universiade to a multi-functional urban cultural park, demonstrating sustainable operational strategies [5] Group 3 - Nanda Smart City has evolved into a core area for the "North-South Transformation" in northern Shanghai, becoming a hub for innovation industries with high-quality supporting resources [6][7] - The rapid development of supporting resources has led to the emergence of the "Nanda Speed" label, with significant projects like the Digital Center and the International Talent Community being completed [7] - The recent bid for the Zhaomatang Waterfront Park will enhance the ecological interface of the area, further upgrading its layout [7] Group 4 - The overall development area of China Resources Land in Nanda has expanded from approximately 900,000 square meters to about 1,000,000 square meters, transitioning from single project development to area-wide planning [11] - The Central Urban Land project is the first TOD project in Nanda, designed to provide direct subway access and a seamless connection to commercial areas [11] - The new projects will create a "PARK×TOD" combination, promoting a lifestyle that balances urban vibrancy with tranquility [11] Group 5 - The Wonyun TOD project, part of the Central Urban Land Phase II, features direct subway access and efficient space planning, offering improved residential options [15] - The Wonyun TOD is adjacent to the newly awarded Zhaomatang Waterfront Park project, enhancing its ecological value [15] - The Central Urban Land and Wonyun TOD will continue to release value, raising the living standards in northern Shanghai [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the broad housing demand in China has bottomed out, but the price and volume have not entered a positive cycle as expected. The real estate industry faces challenges from weakened household balance sheets and policy constraints requiring high-quality development without overall leverage [4][5][6]. - The "Good House" policy is seen as a potential breakthrough strategy that could lead to a fivefold positive resonance in core cities, gradually achieving a recovery driven by structural improvements [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Status: Challenges in Real Estate Fundamentals and Policy Constraints - Broad housing demand is estimated to have bottomed out, with total transactions stabilizing around 1.4 billion square meters [15][22]. - New home sales have decreased from 1.57 billion square meters in 2021 to an estimated 0.81 billion square meters in 2024, a cumulative decline of 48%, while second-hand home sales have increased by 64% during the same period [15][22]. - The key issue in the real estate sector is not demand but purchasing power, with a trend of consumption downgrade evident in the market [22][31]. 2. Breakthrough Strategy: "Good House" Policy Leading to Fivefold Positive Resonance - The "Good House" policy aims to create new products and markets, enhancing the price system under conditions of supply scarcity and relatively abundant demand [4][6]. - The report identifies five positive resonances: policy strength of "Good House," urban renewal, housing consumption upgrade, wealth reallocation under capital controls, and stock market strength [4][6]. - Potential benefits include expected further reductions in mortgage rates and loosening of purchase restrictions, which could drive improvements in core cities [4][6]. 3. Core Cities: Hong Kong Has Reversed, Shanghai and Other Core Cities Nearing Bottom - Hong Kong's real estate market has experienced a turnaround due to four positive factors, including talent policies and stock market gains [4][6]. - Other core cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen are also showing signs of improvement, with Shanghai expected to be the next city to see a bottoming out [4][6]. 4. Investment Analysis Opinion: "Good House" as a Breakthrough Strategy - The report emphasizes that the "Good House" policy could lead to a structural recovery in the real estate market, benefiting quality real estate companies positioned in core cities [4][5][6]. - Recommended companies include those with strong product capabilities and undervalued recovery potential, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries and property management firms [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with many companies facing increased profit pressure, while a few, like Longfor and China Resources, are successfully navigating this shift by focusing on operational business models and achieving positive profitability [2][9]. Industry Trends - The market is transitioning from a phase of large-scale expansion to one focused on improving existing assets, as indicated by recent government meetings [2]. - Companies are exploring new operational models to adapt to this systemic change, emphasizing the need for a shift from incremental to stock market strategies [2][8]. Company Strategies - Real estate firms are concentrating on three main transformation paths: enhancing stable income through property holdings, developing light asset businesses, and expanding into new business areas beyond traditional real estate development [2]. - Longfor's operational business revenue reached a historical high of 13.27 billion yuan, while China Resources achieved a core net profit of 6.02 billion yuan, contributing over 60% of its profits [5][6]. Operational Models - Longfor's operational business includes commercial investment, asset management, property management, and smart construction, with a focus on maintaining high occupancy rates and rental income growth [5]. - China Resources is adopting a large asset management model as a core strategy during the industry's transition, achieving regular income of 20.56 billion yuan [6]. Market Adaptation - The industry is encouraged to shift from investment-driven growth to service-driven revenue, focusing on operational and service enhancements [8]. - Companies like Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou are actively pursuing new growth lines in commercial and property management [8]. Financial Stability - Moody's report highlights that increasing regular income enhances developers' profitability stability and financial resilience, with Longfor and China Resources showing higher operational income and profitability compared to peers [9].

机构：国信证券 研究员：任鹤/王粤雷/王静 核心观点 财务指标保持健康。截至2025H1 末，公司净有息负债率39%，剔除预收款的资产负债率55%；加权平 均融资成本为2.79%，较2024 年末下降32 个基点。 预期2025 全年，公司经常性业务收入能覆盖2 倍股息及利息倍数，偿债压力较小。 上半年核心净利润同比-7%，经常性业务贡献占比提升至60%。2025H1，公司实现营业收入949 亿元， 同比+20%；实现核心净利润100 亿元，同比-7%，其中经常性业务贡献核心净利润占比60%，同比提升 了9pct；2025H1，公司毛利率24.0%，同比提升2pct，其中开发销售型业务毛利率提升3pct 至15.6%，经 营性不动产业务毛利率提升1pct 至72.9%。2025H1，公司核心净利率10.5%，同比下降3pct，主要受到 开发销售型业务核心净利率同比下降4pct 的拖累。2025H1，开发销售型业务核心净利润同比-24%，主 要因为去年3 月公司发行商业REIT 获得项目出售收益16 亿元导致2024H1 基数较高。 投资建议：我们维持此前的盈利预测，预计公司2025-2026 年的归母净利润分 ...

"大浪淘沙始见金"，在房地产行业深度调整之际，哪些房企依然能为股东创造价值回报？ 随着中报季结束，各大房企均披露了上半年的业绩表现。新京报贝壳财经以2025年上半年房企销售额排行榜（参 照中指研究院公布名单）为基础，选取排名前30家的上市房企，推出《2025年上半年上市房企归母净利润排行 榜》。 那么，谁是今年上半年房地产行业的"利润之王"？有哪些房企实现了正向盈利？哪些房企持续亏损呢？ | | 典型房企 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 华润置城 | 118.8 | 16.21% | | 远洋集团 | 102 | 289.57% | | 中海地产 | 85.99 | -16.62% | | 龙湖集团 | 32.16 | -45.18% | | 保利发展 | 27.11 | -63.47% | | 滨江集团 | 18.53 | 58.87% | | 口在在线 | 41 10 | 1001 V | | חמנום | 14.40 | 6. 10 70 | | --- | --- | --- | | 越秀地产 | 13.7 | -25.21% | | 中国金茂 | 10.9 | 7.93% | ...

"大浪淘沙始见金"，在房地产行业深度调整之际，哪些房企依然能为股东创造价值回报？ 随着中报季结束，各大房企均披露了上半年的业绩表现。新京报贝壳财经以2025年上半年房企销售额排行榜（参照中指研究院公布名单）为基础，选取排 名前30家的上市房企，推出《2025年上半年上市房企归母净利润排行榜》。 那么，谁是今年上半年房地产行业的"利润之王"？有哪些房企实现了正向盈利？哪些房企持续亏损呢？ 谁在盈利？ 华润置地靠"收租"成为"利润王" 今年上半年，归母净利润排行榜前三的是华润置地、远洋集团和中海地产，对应的归母净利润分别为118.8亿元、102亿元和85.99亿元。 其中，华润置地依然稳坐"利润王"的宝座，其上半年归母净利润为118.8亿元，同比增长16.21%，按此计算，其日赚利润超6000万元。华润置地之所以能 蝉联"利润王"，与其业务结构相关。 回顾华润置地今年上半年业绩可以发现，占总营业额仅21.7%的经常性业务贡献了60.2%的核心净利润，达60.2亿元；而开发销售型业务仅带来39.8亿元核 心净利润，同比减少23.8%。 这些经常性业务包括购物中心、写字楼、酒店、长租公寓等，能产生稳定的现金流，像"收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][77]. Core Insights - The company reported a core net profit of 10 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, with the contribution from recurring business rising to 60%, an increase of 9 percentage points [10][1]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 94.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [10][1]. - The gross margin improved to 24.0%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year, with the gross margin for development and sales business increasing by 3 percentage points to 15.6% [10][1]. - The company’s financial health remains robust, with a net interest-bearing debt ratio of 39% and an asset-liability ratio of 55% excluding advance receipts [64][1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 94.9 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, and a core net profit of 10 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year [10][1]. - The core net profit margin was 10.5%, a decrease of 3 percentage points, primarily due to a 4 percentage point decline in the core net profit margin of the development and sales business [10][1]. Development and Sales Business - The revenue from the development and sales business was 74.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, while the contracted sales amount was 110.3 billion yuan, down 12% [25][2]. - The company ranked third in industry sales, maintaining a leading position in 15 cities [25][2]. - The land acquisition amount was 44.7 billion yuan, a 75% increase year-on-year, with a land reserve area of 48.95 million square meters as of the end of the first half of 2025 [25][2]. Operational Performance of Shopping Centers - The operating income from the property management business was 12.1 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, with rental income from shopping centers reaching 10.4 billion yuan, up 10% [50][3]. - The overall occupancy rate of shopping centers was 97.3%, remaining stable year-on-year, with a retail sales figure of 110.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% increase [50][3]. Financial Health - The company’s weighted average financing cost was 2.79%, a decrease of 32 basis points compared to the end of 2024 [64][1]. - It is expected that the recurring business income will cover twice the dividend and interest expenses for the full year of 2025, indicating low debt repayment pressure [64][1]. Profit Forecast - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 24.5 billion yuan and 24.1 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 3.43 yuan and 3.39 yuan [77][1].