2026.01. 09 本文字数：2137，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 孙梦凡 2025年的土地市场，两大关键词是规模缩量与点状高温。 中指研究院最新数据显示，2025年300城住宅用地成交规划建筑面积为6.2亿平方米，同比下降 13.5%，出让金2.3万亿元，同比下降10.6%。虽然整体规模缩量，但在上海、北京、杭州、成都等 城市，高总价、高单价、高溢价地块屡屡刷新。 头部房企尤其是央国企，在市场调整期逆势入场。去年拿地金额百强房企中，TOP10房企的拿地金 额占比达50.5%，TOP20房企拿地金额占比高达62.7%，相较上年分别提高9.1、7.8个百分 点，"面粉"资源正加速向少数房企聚集。 高总价、高单价地块频出 从城市整体层面看，去年上海共成交64宗宅地，其中37宗溢价成交；杭州共成交92宗宅地，68宗溢 价成交，其中33宗溢价率超30%；北京共成交40宗宅地，14宗溢价成交；深圳共成交12宗宅地，9 宗溢价成交；成都成交107宗宅地，42宗溢价成交。 截至2025年末，一二线城市的宅地出让金占300城的比例达57.0%，较2024年提升4.4个百分点。 其中，一线城市宅地出让金占比为1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the land market in 2025 is characterized by a reduction in scale and localized high demand for premium land parcels [1][2][3] - The total planned residential land transaction area in 300 cities is projected to be 620 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, with the total land transfer fees amounting to 2.3 trillion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year [1][2] - Despite the overall decline in land transactions, major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, and Chengdu are witnessing record high prices for land parcels, indicating a concentration of investment among leading real estate companies [1][3] Group 2 - In 2025, the proportion of residential land with a floor area ratio below 2.0 in 300 cities reached 42.3%, an increase of 7.7 percentage points from 2024, reflecting a push for higher quality land offerings [2] - The top 10 real estate companies accounted for 50.5% of the total land acquisition amount among the top 100 companies, while the top 20 companies accounted for 62.7%, indicating a significant concentration of land acquisition among leading firms [7][8] - The investment behavior of real estate companies is shifting, with state-owned enterprises dominating land acquisitions, while private companies are gradually increasing their participation [8][9] Group 3 - The average land acquisition amount for the top 100 real estate companies has increased, with a land-to-sales ratio of 0.29, up 0.12 from 2024, suggesting a return to investment levels seen in 2021 [8] - The total land acquisition amount for private real estate companies is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, while the share of city investment platforms in land acquisition has decreased to 15% [8][9] - The market outlook suggests that after a period of adjustment, the real estate sector may stabilize, with major state-owned enterprises likely to continue their strategic investments during market fluctuations [9]

Core Insights - The current stock of housing that meets the "good house" standard is less than 5%, with an annual demand for housing improvement projected to reach 700 million to 1 billion square meters, indicating a shift towards a "product certainty era" in the industry [1] - The real estate sector is transitioning from quantity expansion to quality enhancement, making product strength the core competitive advantage for companies in this new development phase [1] - The current housing prices are at a low point, while product standards have reached historical highs, presenting an optimal time for buying and upgrading homes, with expectations for the next five years to be the "year of products" in Chinese real estate [1] Industry Trends - According to the latest report by CRIC, leading real estate companies are excelling in product strength by focusing on safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence, as reflected in the "2025 China Real Estate Enterprise Product Strength TOP 100" rankings [2] - The rankings include traditional categories such as top enterprises and products, along with new categories like "Top 10 Good House Enterprises" and "Top 20 Good House Works," showcasing the industry's focus on quality [2] - Despite challenges such as market saturation and structural declines in purchasing power, the relationship between good products and sales is not direct, necessitating a deep integration of market analysis, customer insights, and product refinement to overcome these challenges [2] Product Development - CRIC's CEO highlighted the importance of selecting unique market opportunities, with projects like Shenzhen Bay and Shanghai Gao Fu achieving strong sales due to their prime locations [3] - Emphasizing product uniqueness and differentiation is crucial, as seen in projects like Zhengzhou Jinmao and Puyang Zhuyou, which have achieved competitive advantages through differentiated offerings [3] - The industry is expected to evolve by 2026 from a focus on individual product competition to a more integrated approach involving product, customer research, and operational strategies [3]

长期来看，中金认为华润置地的企业模型可能会先接近日本的龙头房企，即实现表内资产比例的有序压 降，并同时实现资产管理规模(AUM)的有序提升。 中金又指，以企业形态来看，持有型物业占比相对较高的企业（比如龙湖集团(00960））均有做此类转 型的契机，轻重平台分立的资本市场架构在企业当中也有一定的共识，可以实现企业价值的充分释放。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，近年来政策持续强调房地产行业向新模式转型。从企业的角度 看，未来住房业务的高质量发展，经营性不动产业务的重心增加是基本趋势，围绕资产管理这个关键词 来建设新能力、新生态也已经具备一定的共识。 中金表示，过去40年海外不动产企业形态演变的过程，最终使得部分产业主体成功向资产管理平台转 型，这一转型架构在资产证券化和资本全球化程度不断提升的背景之上。而中国处在城镇化和金融市场 发展的双拐点上，房企向资产管理业务探索转型是必然方向，"十五五"或将是制度建设的关键期。 中金指，中国去库存、去杠杆的进程尚处早期阶段，未来不仅市场化企业要承担商业转型的先锋角色， 对于地方财政如何构建更可持续的资产管理模式，或也有诸多可供构想之处。中金又表示，华润置地 (011 ...

7 的平台 E 产 · 前 · 行 · 的 · 力 · 量 片 · 我 th 日 2025年1-12月 成都典型房企销售金额排行榜 (全日径) | 排名 | 企业简称 | 销售金额(亿元) | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 成都轨道城市 | 147.3 | | 2 | 中国铁建 | 143.2 | | 3 | 华润置地 | 141.0 | | 4 | 招商蛇口 | 105.0 = | | 5 | 保利发展 | 100.2 | | 6 | 龙湖集团 | -88.5 | | 7 | 电建地产 | 75.2 | | 8 | 润达丰滨江 | 72.4 | | 9 | 天投开发 | 70.0 | | 10 | 中国金茂 | 68.9 | | 11 | 兴城人居 | 67.5 | | 12 | 万华投资 | 66.8 | | 13 | 成华发展 | 66.6 | | =14 | 华发股份 | 63.1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 15 | 嘉禾兴房地产 | 54.4 | | 16 | 越秀地产 | 50.8 | | 17 | 中海地产 | 49.6 | | 18 | 锦江统建 | ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the real estate sector, highlighting specific stocks in various categories such as development, commercial residential, property management, and cultural tourism [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the shift in the real estate industry from a focus on quantity to a focus on quality, driven by the new requirements set forth during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, which aims for high-quality development [1][13]. - It identifies six key tasks to achieve high-quality development, including optimizing affordable housing supply and enhancing property service quality [1][61]. Summary by Sections 1. High-Quality Development as a New Requirement - The report discusses the significant changes in the real estate market, transitioning from a supply-demand imbalance to a potential oversupply situation, necessitating a focus on high-quality development [3][6]. - It outlines the central government's shift in policy from reducing leverage and total volume to stabilizing the real estate market and promoting quality [6][7]. 2. Understanding High-Quality Development - The report defines high-quality development as essential for meeting the people's aspirations for a better life, advancing modernization, and facilitating the transformation of the real estate industry [22][24]. - It presents three major significances, four key requirements, and six essential tasks for high-quality development [21][28]. 3. Policy Expectations for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The report anticipates that future policies will focus on risk prevention, quality improvement, and transformation in the development sector [62]. - It emphasizes the need for a balanced approach between short-term market stabilization and long-term structural reforms [36][60]. 4. Six Key Tasks for High-Quality Development - The report outlines six tasks: optimizing affordable housing supply, promoting sustainable market development, reforming development and financing systems, enhancing housing quality, improving property service quality, and establishing a safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing [61][62].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Bank of America Securities is optimistic about the real estate market due to recent discussions in the "Qiushi" magazine, anticipating more proactive real estate policies, particularly mortgage subsidies, to be introduced in March and April [1] - Bank of America Securities favors companies with strong execution capabilities, such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Jianfa International Group [1] - China Resources Mixc Life is expected to benefit from any consumer stimulus measures [1] Group 2 - The rating for Wanwu Cloud has been upgraded to "Neutral" as the worst-case scenario seems to be reflected in the stock price [1] - The potential transfer of control to Shenzhen Metro is seen as a positive event-driven opportunity for Wanwu Cloud [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a positive shift in investor sentiment towards Chinese real estate stocks, driven by a commentary in the "Qiushi" magazine suggesting a potential change in government policy regarding the real estate market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Chinese real estate stocks have shown an upward trend, with notable increases in share prices: Longfor Group (4.37%), R&F Properties (3.77%), Agile Group (3.57%), China Overseas Land & Investment (3.04%), China Resources Land (3.82%), China Jinmao (2.75%), and Sunac China (2.27%) [1] Group 2: Policy Insights - JPMorgan notes that the commentary in "Qiushi" magazine has raised investor hopes for a shift in policy, advocating for substantial measures rather than incremental ones, especially after a lack of significant policies last year [1] - The article suggests that the current discourse from officials regarding the real estate market may finally be changing, given the ongoing decline in housing prices and sales since the second half of last year [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - JPMorgan predicts that without substantial policy changes, the downward trend in the real estate sector will continue, forecasting a 7% decline in sales and a 5% drop in housing prices for the year [1] - However, the current market conditions, particularly the impact of weak housing prices on consumer spending, increase the likelihood of more robust policy support this year, indicating potential upside risks to JPMorgan's forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS published a research report indicating that the article titled "Improving and Stabilizing Real Estate Market Expectations" in the Qiushi magazine highlights the crucial role of the real estate industry in China's economic development, which led to a significant rise in domestic property stocks by up to 7% on January 5th [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector plays a vital role in the economic landscape of China [1] - The content of the article does not present much new information but reaffirms the importance of the real estate industry, contrasting with market expectations following the recent Politburo meeting that suggested a decline in the sector's significance [1] - There is speculation that authorities may introduce policies to stabilize rental prices, aiming to narrow the gap between rental yields and mortgage rates, which could enhance market sentiment [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - UBS estimates that the authorities may lower the mortgage interest rate by 40 basis points this year [1] - In terms of stock selection, UBS favors companies with business model transformations, specifically China Resources Land, and those benefiting from the recovery of high-end shopping malls, such as China Resources Mixc Life, both receiving "buy" ratings [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing real estate market expectations and highlights the sector's significant role in the national economy and as a source of household wealth [3][50] - The report suggests that the real estate market's healthy development is crucial for overall economic stability and calls for decisive policy measures rather than piecemeal approaches [50] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.6%, and the real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 0.7% during the week [5][8] - Notable stock performances included Chengjian Development (+13.2%) and Sanzhong Impression (+10.7%), while Hualian Holdings (-15.5%) and Yatong Shares (-6.8%) saw significant declines [5][8] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of December 27 to January 2, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.56 million square meters, a 2.0% decrease from the previous week [16] - For December, new housing transactions reached 10.63 million square meters, a 35.7% increase month-on-month but a 40.5% decrease year-on-year [21] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.64 million square meters, a 21.5% decrease from the previous week [34] - For December, second-hand housing transactions amounted to 9.22 million square meters, an 11.1% increase month-on-month but a 27.9% decrease year-on-year [37] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development aims for significant progress in housing quality improvement by 2030, focusing on standards, design, materials, and construction [50] - New tax policies were introduced, reducing the value-added tax rate for second-hand housing transactions to 3% for properties held for less than two years, while properties held for two years or more are exempt from VAT [50] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the launch of a pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to promote high-quality market development [50] Company Announcements - China Resources Land secured a sustainable development-linked loan of 2 billion yuan with a term of 36 months [54] - Huafa Group elected Guo Lingyong as the chairman of its board and Liu Yingzhe as vice chairman [54]