Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a potential investment return that exceeds the market benchmark index by 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - As of early 2026, multiple regions have initiated old housing acquisitions, significantly accelerating the "old-for-new" program, supported by a reduction in the central bank's one-year relending rate from 1.5% to 1.25% [1][3]. - Local governments are actively engaging in funding through various means, including fiscal support and bank loans, to facilitate the acquisition and renovation of old housing, thereby enhancing the supply of affordable rental housing [3]. - The report highlights that the government's direct acquisition of second-hand old houses is an effective measure to streamline the housing exchange process, reduce the exchange cycle, and simplify procedures, ultimately promoting the sales of new homes [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Old Housing Acquisition - The "old-for-new" service has been launched in various cities, with Shanghai and Hangzhou being notable examples where initial registrations have been completed and dynamic waiting lists established for families wishing to participate [1][2]. - Specific focus areas include older properties in urban centers, with clear ownership and reasonable pricing, aimed at facilitating housing exchanges for those in need [2]. Section 2: Market Dynamics - By the end of 2025, public funds held a mere 0.43% of their stock investment value in the real estate sector, indicating a significant underweight compared to standard industry allocation [4]. - The report suggests that high-energy cities are likely to benefit from urban renewal initiatives, leading to structural optimization and gradual stabilization of the market [5]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Real estate companies with strong credit advantages and high product reputation in core cities, such as China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao [5]. 2. Public REITs with rich existing resources and strong operational brand competitiveness, such as China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [5]. 3. Long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jiyu and Greentown Service [5].

2026年房企销售迎来平稳开局。中指研究院发布数据显示，2026年1月份，百强房企（以全口径销售额 排名）实现销售总额1905.2亿元，同比下降18.9%，相比去年全年的降幅基本持平。 1月份，保利发展、中海地产、华润置地位居销售额前三位，分别实现销售额156亿元、144.7亿元和 116.5亿元，头部房企表现较为平稳。此外，滨江集团、建发房产、越秀地产等区域深耕型房企，在一 线及强二线城市保持了相对稳定的去化节奏，成为当前市场的重要支撑力量。 房企1月拿地热度有所减弱 投拓方面，2026年1月，TOP100企业拿地总额579.9亿元，同比下降52.1%。房企开年拿地同比降幅较 高，一方面是上年同期基数较高，2025年1月TOP100企业拿地总额同比增长四成多；另一方面，刚开 年，企业在上年积极补仓的背景下拿地热度有所减弱，这也延续了上年四季度拿地热度走低的态势。 TOP100企业拿地总额579.9亿元，同比下降52.1%。刚开年，在企业上年积极补仓的背景下拿地热度有 所减弱。从新增货值来看，华润置地、石家庄城发投集团位列前二。 销售表现整体符合市场预期 2026年1月，TOP100房企销售总额为1905.2 ...

Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown a decline of 2.1% over the past week, ranking 17th among 29 sectors in the market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and the Wind All A index experienced changes of 0.1% and -1.6% respectively [5][38]. - New home sales in 36 cities reached 1.425 million square meters last week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 14.2% and a year-on-year increase of 146.5%. However, cumulative sales from January 1 to January 30 totaled 5.398 million square meters, down 30.3% year-on-year [5][10]. - The second-hand housing market saw a total transaction area of 1.706 million square meters across 15 cities last week, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.7% but a significant year-on-year increase of 744.4%. Cumulative sales for the same period reached 6.739 million square meters, up 15.8% year-on-year [5][16]. Real Estate Market Conditions - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 7.7738 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The average de-stocking period is 23.0 months, which is stable compared to the previous week but has increased by 6.7 months year-on-year [5][24]. - In terms of land transactions, the total area sold in 100 cities from January 26 to February 1 was 1.7955 million square meters, marking a week-on-week increase of 49.2% and a year-on-year increase of 419.7%. The average land price was 979 yuan per square meter, down 28.0% week-on-week and down 74.4% year-on-year [5][32]. Investment Recommendations - For mainland developers, the report recommends companies such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou in A-shares, and China Overseas Development and Greentown China in Hong Kong stocks, highlighting that sales growth expectations post-market recovery will drive valuation improvements [5][9]. - Light asset operation companies are also recommended, as they are expected to maintain stable fundamentals during the downturn. Suggested companies include Greentown Service for property management and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle for commercial management [5][9]. - For Hong Kong developers, the report suggests focusing on companies like Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development, which are expected to benefit from a recovering residential sales market [5][9]. Financing Conditions - In the realm of domestic credit bonds, real estate companies issued a total of 8 bonds last week, amounting to 4.96 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 42.9% week-on-week but an increase of 346.3% year-on-year. The net financing amount was -3.97 billion yuan due to repayments totaling 8.93 billion yuan [5][36].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the historical positioning of silver indicators, noting that 93% of historical dates are below 200%, while the current level exceeds 1800%, indicating potential price adjustments during the decline phase of silver [11] - It highlights the macroeconomic narratives, including geopolitical tensions and the impact of the new Federal Reserve chair, suggesting that the current market is less influenced by overseas factors [3][12] - The investment strategy focuses on three main areas: core growth assets, global competitive advantages, and emerging growth sectors, with specific recommendations for companies in these categories [14] Company Summaries TCL Electronics (01070) - TCL Electronics is forming a joint venture with Sony, where TCL will hold 51% and Sony 49%, aiming to leverage cost and technology advantages in the large-size and mini LED sectors [15] - The joint venture is expected to enhance TCL's high-end product series capabilities [15] Mao Geping (01318) - The brand is expanding its global presence with a new store in Hong Kong and a focus on integrating Eastern aesthetics with modern art, enhancing its international brand narrative [16] Anjuke Food (603345) - The company is shifting from a reliance on large B2B clients to a selective supermarket customization strategy, collaborating with major retailers to launch tailored products, resulting in a 28.1% year-on-year revenue increase in the supermarket channel [17] Chengda Pharmaceutical (301201) - Chengda is transitioning towards biocell therapy, developing innovative drug pipelines and forming strategic partnerships, including a significant collaboration with Chiron Pharma, which has led to clinical advancements [19] Xinquan Co., Ltd. (603179) - The company has established strong partnerships with major domestic truck manufacturers and is focused on expanding its automotive component offerings, leveraging over 20 years of industry experience [20] Jianghuai Automobile (600418) - Jianghuai is developing a new generation of high-end intelligent electric vehicles, integrating advanced technologies from partnerships with high-tech companies like Huawei [21] Chip Origin (688521) - The company reported significant growth in its chip design and mass production businesses, with a 290.82% quarter-on-quarter increase in design revenue and a 132.77% increase in mass production revenue [22] Tencent Holdings (00700) - Tencent's performance exceeded expectations with a 15.4% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by strong sales and R&D efficiency, leading to a notable increase in net profit [23] China Resources Land (01109) - The company is transitioning its real estate service platform to offer comprehensive lifecycle services, enhancing customer engagement through a new digital platform [24] China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) - The company is benefiting from rising oil shipping rates, with Q4 2025 VLCC average rates reaching $94,000 per day, marking a significant increase in operational profits [26]

Core Insights - Dongguan's commercial market is set for significant expansion in 2025, with five new commercial projects adding approximately 490,000 square meters of retail space, bringing the total to over 7 million square meters across 115 projects by the end of the year [1][2]. Group 1: New Commercial Projects in 2025 - Longwan Outlets Plaza opened on June 14, 2025, with a total commercial area of 160,000 square meters, marking Dongguan's first outlet project in the main urban area [1][2]. - MIXC VILLAGE opened on December 28, 2025, featuring 100 international discount stores within a 100,000 square meter area, establishing a new consumption landmark in the coastal bay area [1][2]. - Shilong Qiyun Plaza commenced operations on December 31, 2025, with a size of 130,000 square meters, becoming the largest centralized commercial space in northern Dongguan [1][2]. - Dongguan Phoenix New World launched on July 28, 2025, with 60,000 square meters of commercial space revitalizing the old city area [1][2]. - Hengli Senyanghui opened on September 28, 2025, as the first revitalized centralized commercial space in Hengli Town, filling a gap in quality commercial consumption [1][2]. Group 2: Retail Brand Expansion - Major retail brands are accelerating their presence in Dongguan, with Sam's Club planning to open in 2026, IKEA set to debut in early February 2026, and Hema expanding its footprint in various towns [2]. Group 3: Future Developments in 2026 - In 2026, Dongguan plans to launch five major commercial projects, adding over 400,000 square meters of retail space, focusing on high-end retail, cultural tourism integration, and ecological districts [3]. - Pengrui Tianyue Plaza, a super complex with 117,000 square meters of high-end commercial space, is set to open in Q4 2026, featuring major brands like AEON Supermarket and Huawei's largest experience store [4][5][7]. - Dongguan MixC, a flagship commercial project with approximately 230,000 square meters, is expected to open at the end of 2026, positioned as a leading urban commercial flagship [8][10]. - Songshan Lake Happy Coast, an urban cultural tourism commercial landmark, will open in Q4 2026, integrating ecological and cultural tourism elements [11][13]. - The Hill Qifeng Mountain Road, Dongguan's first mountain park-style commercial street, is set to open in 2026, focusing on outdoor and cultural experiences [14][16]. - The historical cultural district on Zhongshan Road in Shilong Town is undergoing renovation, with a total investment of 550 million yuan, aiming to create a vibrant historical shopping area [17]. Group 4: Overall Market Transition - Dongguan's commercial landscape is transitioning from quantity to quality, with significant projects like MixC, Tianyue Plaza, and Happy Coast addressing gaps in high-end commercial, cultural tourism, and ecological experiences, reflecting the city's commitment to becoming a "Quality Consumption Capital" [17].

Core Viewpoint - The top 100 real estate companies in China are experiencing a significant reshuffling in their rankings as of January 2026, with a notable decline in overall sales figures compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In January 2026, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies reached 190.52 billion yuan, representing an 18.9% year-on-year decline [2]. - Only three companies achieved sales exceeding 10 billion yuan in January, a decrease of two compared to the same period last year [2]. - The number of companies with sales over 5 billion yuan increased to ten, up by two from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Ranking Changes - The top 10 rankings saw significant changes, with Poly Developments, China Overseas, and China Resources remaining in the top four, while Vanke dropped from fifth to ninth place [3]. - China Travel Investment emerged as a major dark horse, jumping from outside the top 40 to fifth place [3]. - China Jinmao rose from thirteenth to seventh, indicating intensified competition within the top tier [3]. Group 3: Performance of Private Enterprises - Among the 32 companies that experienced year-on-year growth in January, six private enterprises had growth rates exceeding 100% [3]. - Bangtai Group and China Construction Yipin entered the top 20 in sales, benefiting from strategic investments during market lows [3]. Group 4: New Entrants and Market Dynamics - Seven new companies entered the top 100 list in January, with four being small to medium-sized private enterprises [4]. - State-owned enterprises continue to dominate land acquisition, with companies like Yuexiu Property and China Resources maintaining strong investment levels [4]. Group 5: Policy and Market Outlook - The policy environment is shifting towards stabilizing expectations, with measures such as extended tax rebates and loan extensions being implemented [4]. - The market is expected to see a gradual release of demand in March, driven by promotional activities from real estate companies before the Spring Festival [5].

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (00728) at 70.97%, Green Power Environmental (01330) at 68.68%, and Haotian International Construction Investment (01341) at 66.96% [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700), Pop Mart (09992), and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) saw the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +2.954 billion, +1.333 billion, and +1.183 billion respectively [1] - Conversely, China Mobile (00941), Zijin Mining (02899), and Alibaba-W (09988) experienced the largest decreases in holding amounts, with reductions of -2.026 billion, -1.856 billion, and -1.609 billion respectively [2] Group 1: Top Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding of 9.851 billion shares, representing 70.97% [1] - Green Power Environmental (01330) has a holding of 0.278 billion shares, representing 68.68% [1] - Haotian International Construction Investment (01341) has a holding of 7.430 billion shares, representing 66.96% [1] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Tencent Holdings (00700) increased by +2.954 billion, with a change of +4.9354 million shares [1] - Pop Mart (09992) increased by +1.333 billion, with a change of +5.8896 million shares [1] - Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) increased by +1.183 billion, with a change of +13.9887 million shares [1] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - China Mobile (00941) decreased by -2.026 billion, with a change of -2.5982 million shares [2] - Zijin Mining (02899) decreased by -1.856 billion, with a change of -4.69103 million shares [2] - Alibaba-W (09988) decreased by -1.609 billion, with a change of -0.98507 million shares [2]

Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, the sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies in China showed a total sales amount of 190.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 18.9%, indicating a stable continuation of the downward trend observed in the previous year [5][10]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The total sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies in January 2026 was 190.5 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%, consistent with the decline observed throughout the previous year [5][10]. - The top three companies in terms of total sales were Poly Developments (15.6 billion yuan), China Overseas Land & Investment (14.47 billion yuan), and China Resources Land (11.65 billion yuan) [5][10]. - The average sales amount for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year, while the average for companies ranked 11-30 was 2.6 billion yuan, down 25.6% [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in sales is attributed to a high base from January of the previous year, where core city markets were notably active [5][9]. - The new entrant, China Travel Investment, ranked 5th with a sales amount of 9.28 billion yuan, marking a significant rise from previous years [9]. - The sales performance of the top 10 companies remained relatively stable, with three companies showing year-on-year increases, while seven experienced declines [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that as the Chinese New Year approaches, real estate companies may increase marketing efforts, which could lead to a temporary boost in market activity [11]. - There is a need for coordinated policy efforts from both demand and supply sides to effectively restore market confidence [11].

Group 1 - The core event was a "special matchmaking meeting between retail enterprises and AI technology companies" held in Shenzhen, focusing on industry integration, application scenarios, and policy implementation [1][3] - Shenzhen aims to become a leading city in AI, with the AI industry expected to exceed 360 billion yuan by the end of 2024, and over 2,800 typical enterprises already established [3] - The "Action Plan for Accelerating the Development of the AI Terminal Industry in Shenzhen (2025-2026)" targets an AI terminal industry scale of over 800 billion yuan by 2026, with a goal of reaching 1 trillion yuan [3] Group 2 - Various companies presented practical cases demonstrating how AI can empower the retail sector, including a three-in-one smart operation model in the Houhai business district by China Resources Land [4] - Cloud Tianli focused on smart security, explaining how AI technology can enhance safety and management efficiency in commercial environments [4] - Lingzhi Digital Technology shared its self-developed AI model aimed at reconstructing the entire retail value chain [4] Group 3 - The Shenzhen Smart Retail Association emphasized the need to break down barriers between supply and demand to facilitate precise matching of AI technology with commercial scenarios [6] - The association is actively organizing resources to connect key areas, such as the Qianhai Baozhong business district, with AI technology companies to accelerate smart construction [6] - Shenzhen's government has introduced financial support policies for retail enterprises undergoing digital transformation, with project funding up to 15 million yuan and enterprise funding up to 30 million yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the imminent issuance of the first batch of commercial real estate REITs, with significant potential for revitalizing existing assets [1]. - The expansion of the public REITs market from infrastructure to commercial real estate marks a new phase in China's REITs development, with regulatory support aimed at enhancing issuance efficiency and encouraging asset integration [3]. - The report anticipates that commercial real estate REITs will accelerate in 2026, driven by policy support and the performance of initial projects, while emphasizing the importance of asset quality and operational capabilities for long-term success [3]. Summary by Sections Commercial Real Estate REITs Overview - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs is set to raise a total of approximately 314.7 billion yuan, covering various commercial formats such as hotels, office buildings, and shopping centers [3]. - The report details eight commercial real estate REITs that have been submitted for approval, with expected fundraising sizes ranging from 17.03 billion yuan to 74.7 billion yuan [5][6]. Specific REITs Details - **Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate REIT**: Expected to raise 40.02 billion yuan, with underlying assets including two office buildings in Shanghai [5]. - **Huazhong Jinjiang REIT**: Expected to raise 17.03 billion yuan, focusing on 21 hotels across 18 cities [5]. - **CICC Vipshop REIT**: Expected to raise 74.7 billion yuan, with underlying assets in Zhengzhou and Harbin [5]. - **Huazhong Lujiazui REIT**: Expected to raise 28.10 billion yuan, with assets in Shanghai [6]. - **Huazhong Poly Development REIT**: Expected to raise 20.93 billion yuan, with assets in Guangzhou and Foshan [6]. - **Huazhong Yintai REIT**: Expected to raise 42.785 billion yuan, focusing on the Hefei Yintai Center [6]. - **Huazhong CapitaLand REIT**: Expected to raise 40.54 billion yuan, with assets in Shenzhen and Mianyang [6]. - **Guotai Haitong Sazhi Chuan REIT**: Expected to raise 50.64 billion yuan, focusing on the Sazhi Chuan outlet in Xi'an [6]. Market Potential and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the substantial existing stock of commercial real estate in China, which provides a solid foundation for the development of commercial real estate REITs [3]. - The retail sector alone has over 9,000 concentrated commercial properties, while the hotel sector has approximately 1.764 million rooms, indicating a strong demand for asset revitalization through REITs [3]. - The report suggests that companies with mature and stable assets, such as Poly Development and Meiyue Commercial, are likely to have a competitive advantage in the REITs market [3].